Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Rank 21–46
Stage Impact To Match WP
WP = win probability: here, the chance of winning the match.
Matches counted813,994
Stage types10
Most affectedTaka
Widest swing5.2 pts
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/10/18
Every character, every stage
Change from that character's own win rate, in points| -2.3 | +0.2 | -0.5 | +0.4 | +1.0 | +2.9 | -0.4 | -1.2 | +0.2 | -0.4 | |
| +0.5 | +2.5 | -1.2 | +0.5 | -1.0 | +0.7 | -1.7 | -2.4 | -0.2 | +1.9 | |
| -0.3 | -0.6 | -0.1 | +0.6 | -1.1 | +1.7 | -1.5 | -0.9 | -0.4 | +2.2 | |
| +0.8 | +0.5 | -0.6 | -0.1 | +0.2 | -1.5 | +1.4 | +0.7 | +1.0 | -1.7 | |
| -1.1 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -1.1 | +1.0 | +0.5 | -0.1 | -0.6 | +0.6 | +1.3 | |
| -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.5 | -0.9 | +0.5 | +0.8 | -0.0 | -0.3 | -0.8 | +1.3 | |
| +0.2 | +0.7 | -0.1 | -1.0 | -0.8 | -0.6 | +0.4 | +1.2 | +0.6 | -0.7 | |
| -0.0 | +0.7 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +0.5 | -0.2 | +1.5 | -0.5 | -0.6 | -0.7 | |
| +0.6 | -0.8 | +0.1 | -0.3 | +1.3 | +0.5 | +0.5 | -0.8 | +0.3 | -0.7 | |
| -0.6 | -0.8 | -0.1 | -0.7 | -0.4 | +0.5 | +1.2 | -0.3 | +1.0 | +0.3 | |
| -0.7 | +0.7 | +0.7 | +0.9 | -0.2 | -0.6 | -0.3 | +0.8 | -1.1 | -0.3 | |
| -0.6 | -0.3 | +0.1 | +0.5 | +0.3 | -0.1 | -1.4 | +0.3 | +0.0 | +0.5 | |
| +0.8 | +0.4 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.5 | +0.5 | +0.4 | +0.1 | +1.1 | -0.1 | |
| -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.3 | +0.2 | -0.2 | +0.7 | +0.7 | +0.9 | -0.8 | -0.1 | |
| +0.2 | -0.2 | -0.4 | +0.6 | -0.3 | +0.5 | +0.2 | +0.3 | -1.1 | +0.2 | |
| +0.3 | +0.2 | +0.5 | +0.6 | +0.1 | -0.9 | -0.5 | +0.6 | -0.1 | -1.0 | |
| +0.7 | -0.0 | +0.5 | +0.1 | +0.3 | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.6 | -0.9 | +0.3 | |
| +0.7 | -0.3 | +0.4 | +0.0 | -0.8 | -0.6 | +0.0 | +0.2 | +0.6 | -0.3 | |
| +0.3 | -0.1 | +0.0 | +0.3 | +0.7 | -0.1 | +0.4 | -0.8 | -0.4 | -0.2 | |
| -1.4 | -0.2 | +1.9 | +1.5 | +1.4 | -0.1 | -4.1 | -0.9 | +1.3 | -0.9 |
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The matchups the stage decides
One matchup on one stage, against the same matchup everywhere| Breakable full fence | 52.0% | 59.6% | +7.6 | 495 | |
| Fence and open | 48.2% | 55.5% | +7.3 | 427 | |
| Half fence | 50.9% | 57.7% | +6.8 | 345 | |
| Half fence | 50.1% | 56.3% | +6.2 | 435 | |
| Full fence | 44.7% | 50.8% | +6.1 | 417 | |
| Full fence | 47.5% | 53.6% | +6.1 | 459 | |
| Low fence | 47.5% | 53.3% | +5.8 | 591 | |
| Open | 48.3% | 54.1% | +5.8 | 468 | |
| Rectangle | 49.9% | 55.7% | +5.8 | 404 | |
| Breakable full fence | 52.2% | 57.7% | +5.5 | 369 | |
| Full fence | 46.7% | 52.2% | +5.5 | 429 | |
| Open | 49.1% | 54.6% | +5.5 | 480 | |
| Octagon | 50.5% | 55.9% | +5.4 | 431 | |
| Octagon | 51.1% | 56.5% | +5.3 | 510 | |
| Half fence | 45.2% | 50.5% | +5.3 | 366 | |
| Single wall | 50.3% | 55.6% | +5.3 | 649 | |
| Low fence | 50.4% | 55.7% | +5.3 | 539 | |
| Half fence | 49.7% | 55.0% | +5.2 | 391 | |
| Breakable half fence | 49.9% | 55.1% | +5.2 | 537 | |
| Full fence | 50.9% | 56.1% | +5.2 | 374 | |
| Breakable half fence | 49.7% | 54.9% | +5.2 | 359 | |
| Open | 51.5% | 56.7% | +5.1 | 411 | |
| Open | 46.1% | 51.2% | +5.1 | 412 | |
| Single wall | 47.6% | 52.7% | +5.0 | 448 |
Every stage type
How much of the data each stage type is| Full fence | 82,167 | 10.09% |
| Breakable full fence | 81,652 | 10.03% |
| Half fence | 81,525 | 10.02% |
| Breakable half fence | 81,432 | 10.00% |
| Low fence | 80,934 | 9.94% |
| Single wall | 80,446 | 9.88% |
| Fence and open | 40,554 | 4.98% |
| Octagon | 81,419 | 10.00% |
| Rectangle | 81,933 | 10.07% |
| Open | 81,282 | 9.99% |
| Not recorded | 40,650 | 4.99% |
Matches counted813,994
Stage groups2
Most affectedWolf
Widest walls gap1.4 pts
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/10/18
Is any of this chance?
The whole cut, tested at onceWalled stages dealt evenly across the rosterχ²=23.8 on 19 df, p=0.205
Matches sharing one stage drawabout 2.0, so a match is not an independent draw
Allowance made for thatevery interval and p-value here widened by ×1.36
Characters whose gap holds up1 of 20 — chance alone would give about 1.0
Matchups whose gap holds up0 of 124 — chance alone would give about 6.2
The roster taken togetherχ²=230.6 on 124 df, p=2e−8
Every character, tested
The gap, the range it could be, and the odds of it being nothing| 51.4% | 50.0% | +1.4 | +0.4 … +2.4 | 0.006 | 0.052 | 82,094 | 980 | |
| 51.6% | 50.6% | +1.0 | -0.0 … +2.0 | 0.061 | 0.153 | 76,831 | 845 | |
| 50.2% | 49.3% | +0.9 | +0.1 … +1.7 | 0.020 | 0.075 | 133,577 | 1,240 | |
| 48.7% | 47.9% | +0.8 | +0.1 … +1.6 | 0.018 | 0.075 | 161,336 | 1,200 | |
| 49.9% | 49.3% | +0.6 | -0.4 … +1.5 | 0.265 | 0.589 | 84,499 | 781 | |
| 52.8% | 52.6% | +0.2 | -2.3 … +2.7 | 0.881 | 0.927 | 12,586 | 181 | |
| 51.7% | 51.6% | +0.1 | -1.1 … +1.4 | 0.822 | 0.913 | 53,945 | 598 | |
| 51.1% | 50.9% | +0.1 | -0.9 … +1.1 | 0.810 | 0.913 | 79,731 | 898 | |
| 51.0% | 51.0% | +0.0 | -1.1 … +1.1 | 0.995 | 0.995 | 68,119 | 767 | |
| 50.4% | 50.6% | -0.2 | -1.3 … +0.9 | 0.758 | 0.913 | 62,689 | 683 | |
| 49.8% | 50.0% | -0.2 | -1.2 … +0.8 | 0.691 | 0.913 | 82,578 | 845 | |
| 49.5% | 49.7% | -0.2 | -1.2 … +0.8 | 0.661 | 0.913 | 78,046 | 654 | |
| 50.3% | 50.5% | -0.2 | -1.5 … +1.0 | 0.715 | 0.913 | 51,362 | 532 | |
| 47.7% | 48.1% | -0.4 | -1.4 … +0.6 | 0.454 | 0.825 | 82,044 | 679 | |
| 49.5% | 50.0% | -0.5 | -1.8 … +0.7 | 0.414 | 0.825 | 51,340 | 569 | |
| 51.4% | 52.0% | -0.6 | -2.3 … +1.2 | 0.528 | 0.880 | 27,180 | 434 | |
| 50.2% | 51.4% | -1.2 | -2.3 … -0.2 | 0.022 | 0.075 | 73,502 | 841 | |
| 48.6% | 50.0% | -1.4 | -2.4 … -0.4 | 0.008 | 0.052 | 77,655 | 871 | |
| 48.9% | 50.4% | -1.4 | -2.3 … -0.5 | 0.002 | 0.038 | 99,221 | 960 | |
| 52.7% | 54.4% | -1.7 | -3.4 … +0.0 | 0.056 | 0.153 | 27,245 | 519 |
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Every character, every stage
Change from that character's own win rate, in points| +0.4 | -1.0 | |
| +0.3 | -0.7 | |
| +0.3 | -0.6 | |
| +0.3 | -0.6 | |
| +0.2 | -0.4 | |
| +0.4 | +0.2 | |
| +0.1 | +0.0 | |
| -0.0 | -0.1 | |
| -0.0 | -0.0 | |
| -0.1 | +0.1 | |
| +0.0 | +0.2 | |
| -0.1 | +0.1 | |
| -0.1 | +0.1 | |
| -0.2 | +0.1 | |
| -0.2 | +0.4 | |
| -0.1 | +0.5 | |
| -0.3 | +0.9 | |
| -0.5 | +0.9 | |
| -0.5 | +0.9 | |
| -0.5 | +1.1 |
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The widest matchup gaps
One matchup behind walls against the same matchup in the open, widest first — none of them survives correction| 53.9% | 49.1% | +4.8 | +0.8 … +8.7 | 0.019 | 0.779 | 5,033 | |
| 53.5% | 48.8% | +4.7 | +0.3 … +9.0 | 0.035 | 0.779 | 4,171 | |
| 51.9% | 47.3% | +4.6 | -0.8 … +10.0 | 0.095 | 0.779 | 2,714 | |
| 52.2% | 47.6% | +4.6 | -0.5 … +9.7 | 0.076 | 0.779 | 3,193 | |
| 53.7% | 49.4% | +4.4 | -0.6 … +9.3 | 0.083 | 0.779 | 3,298 | |
| 49.3% | 45.1% | +4.2 | -1.0 … +9.3 | 0.113 | 0.779 | 3,134 | |
| 50.8% | 46.7% | +4.2 | +0.2 … +8.1 | 0.041 | 0.779 | 5,207 | |
| 51.1% | 47.0% | +4.2 | -0.0 … +8.3 | 0.051 | 0.779 | 4,539 | |
| 50.8% | 46.7% | +4.1 | +0.5 … +7.7 | 0.028 | 0.779 | 6,169 | |
| 53.9% | 49.9% | +4.1 | -1.1 … +9.2 | 0.124 | 0.779 | 2,910 | |
| 51.5% | 47.6% | +3.9 | -0.8 … +8.7 | 0.105 | 0.779 | 3,527 | |
| 52.5% | 48.8% | +3.8 | -1.3 … +8.8 | 0.148 | 0.779 | 3,147 | |
| 53.1% | 49.6% | +3.6 | -0.8 … +8.0 | 0.110 | 0.779 | 4,169 | |
| 47.6% | 44.1% | +3.6 | -0.8 … +8.0 | 0.111 | 0.779 | 4,157 | |
| 48.8% | 45.2% | +3.6 | +1.0 … +6.1 | 0.006 | 0.779 | 12,437 | |
| 51.3% | 47.8% | +3.5 | -1.3 … +8.2 | 0.157 | 0.779 | 3,474 | |
| 51.0% | 47.6% | +3.4 | -1.8 … +8.5 | 0.197 | 0.811 | 3,040 | |
| 52.3% | 49.0% | +3.3 | -0.9 … +7.5 | 0.125 | 0.779 | 4,601 | |
| 51.0% | 47.8% | +3.2 | -1.0 … +7.3 | 0.134 | 0.779 | 4,609 | |
| 54.6% | 51.5% | +3.1 | -2.0 … +8.3 | 0.235 | 0.811 | 3,105 | |
| 49.4% | 46.4% | +3.0 | -1.1 … +7.2 | 0.154 | 0.779 | 4,673 | |
| 51.8% | 48.9% | +3.0 | -2.1 … +8.0 | 0.251 | 0.811 | 3,080 | |
| 48.9% | 46.0% | +2.9 | -1.8 … +7.7 | 0.228 | 0.811 | 3,530 | |
| 53.5% | 50.5% | +2.9 | -1.7 … +7.5 | 0.213 | 0.811 | 3,774 |
Every stage type
How much of the data each stage type is| Walls | 490,128 | 60.21% |
| No walls | 242,662 | 29.81% |
| Not recorded | 40,650 | 4.99% |
Matches counted374,113
Stage types10
Most affectedEileen
Widest swing4.6 pts
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/10/18
Every character, every stage
Change from that character's own win rate, in points| +1.4 | +2.1 | -0.8 | +1.7 | -1.8 | +0.6 | -1.6 | -2.5 | -1.0 | +2.1 | |
| -0.1 | +0.0 | +0.7 | +1.6 | -2.3 | +0.6 | -1.5 | -1.2 | -0.3 | +2.1 | |
| -0.3 | -0.7 | -0.1 | -1.3 | -0.8 | -1.3 | +0.6 | +2.9 | +1.1 | -1.4 | |
| +0.4 | +0.6 | -0.8 | +0.1 | +0.2 | -1.5 | +1.9 | +1.6 | +0.6 | -2.3 | |
| -1.9 | -0.5 | -0.6 | -1.1 | +1.0 | +1.4 | +0.1 | -0.4 | +0.8 | +1.9 | |
| -0.9 | -1.8 | +0.8 | +1.9 | +0.6 | -0.3 | -0.7 | +0.7 | +0.2 | -0.2 | |
| -2.2 | +0.8 | -0.1 | +0.8 | -0.3 | +2.4 | -1.9 | -0.6 | +1.2 | +0.4 | |
| +1.2 | +0.4 | -0.4 | -0.3 | +1.8 | -0.3 | +0.6 | -0.4 | -1.4 | +0.4 | |
| +0.6 | +0.5 | -0.0 | -2.1 | +0.2 | +1.0 | -1.2 | +0.3 | -1.1 | +1.0 | |
| +1.5 | +1.3 | +0.3 | -0.5 | +1.1 | -1.5 | -0.6 | -1.5 | -1.0 | -0.7 | |
| +0.2 | +1.5 | -0.6 | -0.3 | +0.3 | -0.5 | +0.9 | -1.1 | -0.2 | -0.2 | |
| +1.1 | +0.8 | +0.6 | -0.5 | -0.8 | -0.1 | -0.0 | -0.1 | +0.9 | -1.4 | |
| +1.0 | -0.7 | +0.3 | -0.2 | +0.9 | +0.6 | +1.1 | +0.2 | -1.5 | -0.4 | |
| -1.5 | +0.7 | +1.0 | +0.5 | +0.5 | -0.7 | -0.9 | -0.3 | +0.2 | -0.0 | |
| +0.7 | +1.1 | -0.5 | +0.5 | -1.4 | +0.8 | -0.2 | +0.0 | -1.2 | +0.5 | |
| -0.2 | -1.0 | -0.4 | -0.9 | +0.2 | +1.1 | +1.2 | -0.4 | +1.1 | -0.1 | |
| -1.0 | -1.1 | -0.3 | +0.6 | +1.0 | +0.1 | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.4 | +0.9 | |
| +0.8 | +0.6 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.7 | +0.8 | +0.2 | -1.0 | |
| +0.6 | -0.8 | +0.4 | +0.7 | -0.5 | -0.8 | +0.9 | +0.1 | +0.1 | -0.5 | |
| -3.1 | -2.2 | +3.8 | +3.3 | +2.4 | +1.2 | -6.4 | -3.1 | +0.6 | +2.4 |
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The matchups the stage decides
One matchup on one stage, against the same matchup everywhere| Single wall | 55.4% | 66.7% | +11.2 | 159 | |
| Open | 50.1% | 60.8% | +10.7 | 153 | |
| Full fence | 50.0% | 60.7% | +10.7 | 145 | |
| Half fence | 51.0% | 61.4% | +10.4 | 223 | |
| Half fence | 47.7% | 58.0% | +10.3 | 143 | |
| Octagon | 45.9% | 55.8% | +9.9 | 199 | |
| Fence and open | 45.2% | 55.1% | +9.9 | 263 | |
| Octagon | 51.5% | 61.3% | +9.8 | 212 | |
| Breakable half fence | 49.8% | 59.5% | +9.7 | 153 | |
| Rectangle | 49.3% | 59.0% | +9.6 | 190 | |
| Full fence | 45.3% | 54.9% | +9.6 | 226 | |
| Breakable full fence | 47.8% | 57.3% | +9.6 | 157 | |
| Full fence | 53.3% | 62.6% | +9.3 | 281 | |
| Open | 47.5% | 56.7% | +9.3 | 238 | |
| Open | 47.9% | 56.9% | +9.0 | 160 | |
| Low fence | 46.1% | 55.0% | +8.9 | 191 | |
| Open | 50.2% | 58.9% | +8.6 | 158 | |
| Low fence | 48.5% | 57.1% | +8.6 | 177 | |
| Open | 49.5% | 58.0% | +8.5 | 250 | |
| Full fence | 52.1% | 60.5% | +8.3 | 167 | |
| Rectangle | 49.0% | 57.3% | +8.3 | 206 | |
| Breakable half fence | 50.0% | 58.3% | +8.2 | 163 | |
| Full fence | 50.8% | 58.8% | +8.0 | 199 | |
| Full fence | 50.5% | 58.4% | +7.9 | 214 |
Every stage type
How much of the data each stage type is| Full fence | 37,549 | 10.04% |
| Breakable full fence | 37,495 | 10.02% |
| Half fence | 37,787 | 10.10% |
| Breakable half fence | 37,726 | 10.08% |
| Low fence | 37,145 | 9.93% |
| Single wall | 36,836 | 9.85% |
| Fence and open | 18,795 | 5.02% |
| Octagon | 37,036 | 9.90% |
| Rectangle | 37,747 | 10.09% |
| Open | 37,203 | 9.94% |
| Not recorded | 18,794 | 5.02% |
Matches counted374,113
Stage groups2
Most affectedWolf
Widest walls gap2.1 pts
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/10/18
Is any of this chance?
The whole cut, tested at onceWalled stages dealt evenly across the rosterχ²=17.0 on 19 df, p=0.587
Matches sharing one stage drawabout 2.0, so a match is not an independent draw
Allowance made for thatevery interval and p-value here widened by ×1.28
Characters whose gap holds up1 of 20 — chance alone would give about 1.0
Matchups whose gap holds up0 of 124 — chance alone would give about 6.2
The roster taken togetherχ²=203.3 on 124 df, p=9e−6
Every character, tested
The gap, the range it could be, and the odds of it being nothing| 51.9% | 50.2% | +1.7 | +0.3 … +3.0 | 0.018 | 0.178 | 38,234 | 759 | |
| 51.0% | 49.6% | +1.5 | -0.1 … +3.1 | 0.076 | 0.340 | 27,071 | 612 | |
| 51.8% | 50.6% | +1.2 | -0.5 … +2.9 | 0.169 | 0.423 | 24,069 | 424 | |
| 51.0% | 50.1% | +0.9 | -0.1 … +2.0 | 0.090 | 0.340 | 58,650 | 916 | |
| 47.8% | 47.0% | +0.8 | -0.1 … +1.7 | 0.099 | 0.340 | 81,398 | 932 | |
| 53.2% | 52.8% | +0.4 | -1.3 … +2.0 | 0.666 | 0.951 | 26,414 | 582 | |
| 50.0% | 49.9% | +0.1 | -1.1 … +1.4 | 0.832 | 0.971 | 44,241 | 617 | |
| 50.1% | 50.0% | +0.1 | -1.2 … +1.5 | 0.872 | 0.971 | 38,333 | 499 | |
| 50.7% | 50.6% | +0.1 | -1.7 … +1.9 | 0.916 | 0.971 | 21,174 | 434 | |
| 50.3% | 50.2% | +0.1 | -1.5 … +1.6 | 0.959 | 0.971 | 28,725 | 624 | |
| 50.0% | 49.9% | +0.0 | -1.5 … +1.6 | 0.971 | 0.971 | 30,006 | 623 | |
| 50.5% | 50.7% | -0.2 | -2.5 … +2.1 | 0.868 | 0.971 | 13,815 | 321 | |
| 50.8% | 51.3% | -0.5 | -2.3 … +1.3 | 0.596 | 0.917 | 21,723 | 500 | |
| 46.3% | 47.0% | -0.7 | -1.9 … +0.5 | 0.263 | 0.534 | 48,593 | 545 | |
| 50.4% | 51.2% | -0.8 | -2.8 … +1.1 | 0.415 | 0.755 | 18,562 | 392 | |
| 52.9% | 53.7% | -0.9 | -3.2 … +1.5 | 0.481 | 0.802 | 12,533 | 375 | |
| 49.5% | 50.6% | -1.1 | -2.3 … +0.2 | 0.102 | 0.340 | 45,411 | 656 | |
| 49.2% | 50.3% | -1.1 | -2.5 … +0.4 | 0.143 | 0.409 | 35,329 | 689 | |
| 49.9% | 51.9% | -2.1 | -3.2 … -0.9 | 4e−4 | 0.009 | 54,066 | 754 | |
| 55.8% | 58.0% | -2.2 | -6.0 … +1.7 | 0.267 | 0.534 | 4,701 | 123 |
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Every character, every stage
Change from that character's own win rate, in points| +0.4 | -1.2 | |
| +0.3 | -1.2 | |
| +0.5 | -0.7 | |
| +0.3 | -0.6 | |
| +0.2 | -0.6 | |
| +0.0 | -0.3 | |
| +0.1 | -0.1 | |
| +0.1 | +0.0 | |
| +0.1 | +0.0 | |
| -0.1 | -0.1 | |
| +0.1 | +0.1 | |
| +0.1 | +0.3 | |
| -0.1 | +0.3 | |
| -0.3 | +0.4 | |
| -0.2 | +0.6 | |
| -0.0 | +0.8 | |
| -0.4 | +0.7 | |
| -0.3 | +0.7 | |
| -0.6 | +1.4 | |
| -0.2 | +2.0 |
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The widest matchup gaps
One matchup behind walls against the same matchup in the open, widest first — none of them survives correction| 50.5% | 42.3% | +8.2 | +0.8 … +15.4 | 0.029 | 0.806 | 1,381 | |
| 57.3% | 49.3% | +8.0 | +1.9 … +14.0 | 0.010 | 0.599 | 1,884 | |
| 54.1% | 46.5% | +7.6 | +0.2 … +15.0 | 0.044 | 0.806 | 1,320 | |
| 54.3% | 47.3% | +7.0 | +1.4 … +12.6 | 0.015 | 0.599 | 2,221 | |
| 53.1% | 46.6% | +6.6 | -1.1 … +14.2 | 0.093 | 0.806 | 1,219 | |
| 52.2% | 45.9% | +6.3 | -0.5 … +13.1 | 0.071 | 0.806 | 1,514 | |
| 52.3% | 46.5% | +5.8 | -1.0 … +12.6 | 0.092 | 0.806 | 1,521 | |
| 52.2% | 46.6% | +5.7 | -0.1 … +11.4 | 0.055 | 0.806 | 2,111 | |
| 47.6% | 42.5% | +5.1 | +2.0 … +8.2 | 0.001 | 0.161 | 7,237 | |
| 49.2% | 44.3% | +4.9 | -1.0 … +10.8 | 0.101 | 0.806 | 2,093 | |
| 53.2% | 48.3% | +4.9 | -1.4 … +11.2 | 0.130 | 0.875 | 1,734 | |
| 52.1% | 47.3% | +4.8 | -3.0 … +12.6 | 0.225 | 0.880 | 1,168 | |
| 49.8% | 45.1% | +4.7 | -2.0 … +11.4 | 0.167 | 0.880 | 1,560 | |
| 52.2% | 47.5% | +4.7 | -2.7 … +12.1 | 0.214 | 0.880 | 1,252 | |
| 53.2% | 48.6% | +4.7 | -3.7 … +12.9 | 0.276 | 0.880 | 987 | |
| 50.3% | 45.7% | +4.6 | -0.2 … +9.4 | 0.061 | 0.806 | 3,071 | |
| 51.8% | 47.3% | +4.5 | -2.9 … +11.8 | 0.237 | 0.880 | 1,267 | |
| 51.5% | 47.0% | +4.5 | +0.1 … +8.8 | 0.043 | 0.806 | 3,729 | |
| 49.8% | 45.5% | +4.3 | -0.1 … +8.6 | 0.057 | 0.806 | 3,721 | |
| 50.5% | 46.3% | +4.2 | -3.9 … +12.3 | 0.309 | 0.880 | 1,042 | |
| 53.7% | 49.5% | +4.2 | -1.2 … +9.6 | 0.126 | 0.875 | 2,446 | |
| 51.9% | 47.7% | +4.2 | -3.7 … +11.9 | 0.297 | 0.880 | 1,192 | |
| 52.6% | 48.5% | +4.2 | -0.8 … +9.2 | 0.104 | 0.806 | 2,803 | |
| 53.9% | 49.8% | +4.1 | -1.9 … +10.1 | 0.177 | 0.880 | 1,895 |
Every stage type
How much of the data each stage type is| Walls | 225,340 | 60.23% |
| No walls | 111,184 | 29.72% |
| Not recorded | 18,794 | 5.02% |
Matches counted376,139
Stage types10
Most affectedTaka
Widest swing6.8 pts
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/10/18
Every character, every stage
Change from that character's own win rate, in points| -2.3 | -0.1 | -1.4 | +0.4 | +3.1 | +3.5 | +0.2 | -3.3 | -0.0 | -0.5 | |
| +2.3 | +0.3 | -0.2 | -2.5 | +2.4 | +0.3 | +0.9 | -1.1 | -0.2 | -1.2 | |
| -0.2 | -1.2 | -0.0 | -0.6 | -0.3 | +3.1 | -1.4 | -0.8 | -0.9 | +1.8 | |
| +0.2 | +1.2 | +0.7 | +0.5 | -0.6 | -1.0 | -3.0 | +0.9 | +0.6 | -0.2 | |
| -0.1 | +0.7 | +0.0 | +1.3 | -0.8 | -0.2 | +0.5 | +1.6 | -2.2 | -0.2 | |
| +0.6 | +0.3 | -1.9 | -0.3 | -1.3 | +1.8 | +0.6 | +0.8 | +1.3 | +0.5 | |
| +0.3 | +0.0 | +1.3 | +1.1 | +0.7 | -1.9 | -1.0 | +0.5 | -0.2 | -1.3 | |
| -0.9 | -0.8 | -1.0 | -0.1 | +0.5 | +0.8 | +1.8 | -0.4 | -0.6 | +1.3 | |
| +0.1 | -0.2 | +0.9 | +0.9 | +0.2 | +0.5 | +1.4 | -0.7 | -1.4 | -0.7 | |
| -1.1 | -0.1 | -0.3 | +0.7 | -1.2 | +0.7 | +0.3 | +1.5 | -0.4 | -0.1 | |
| +1.1 | +0.5 | -0.8 | +0.1 | +0.1 | -1.1 | +0.9 | +0.3 | +1.3 | -1.3 | |
| +0.6 | +0.3 | +0.3 | -0.9 | -0.8 | -0.3 | -1.1 | +0.2 | +1.4 | -0.1 | |
| +0.2 | +1.6 | -0.3 | -1.0 | -0.6 | -0.3 | +0.7 | -0.6 | +0.7 | +0.4 | |
| -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -1.2 | -0.4 | +1.3 | -0.1 | +0.9 | +1.3 | |
| -0.4 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -1.3 | +1.1 | -0.7 | -0.1 | -0.8 | +0.6 | +0.7 | |
| -0.1 | -1.2 | -0.1 | +0.4 | +0.3 | +0.8 | +0.8 | +0.6 | -1.4 | -0.2 | |
| +0.1 | -0.9 | +0.6 | +0.7 | +0.1 | -0.6 | -0.9 | +0.2 | -1.1 | +1.0 | |
| -0.8 | -0.9 | -0.3 | +0.7 | +0.6 | -0.5 | +0.7 | -0.9 | +0.5 | -0.1 | |
| -1.4 | +1.9 | -1.2 | -1.3 | +0.5 | +1.7 | -2.5 | -2.1 | +0.7 | +2.2 | |
| -0.7 | +1.0 | +1.3 | +0.3 | +1.1 | -0.3 | -1.5 | +0.2 | +1.2 | -3.5 |
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The matchups the stage decides
One matchup on one stage, against the same matchup everywhere| Breakable full fence | 49.5% | 63.3% | +13.8 | 207 | |
| Single wall | 53.9% | 66.1% | +12.2 | 165 | |
| Full fence | 45.8% | 56.2% | +10.4 | 169 | |
| Octagon | 51.1% | 60.9% | +9.8 | 161 | |
| Single wall | 50.7% | 60.3% | +9.6 | 421 | |
| Octagon | 49.5% | 58.7% | +9.1 | 196 | |
| Breakable half fence | 49.5% | 58.6% | +9.1 | 186 | |
| Breakable half fence | 48.2% | 57.1% | +8.9 | 175 | |
| Rectangle | 53.5% | 62.1% | +8.6 | 203 | |
| Full fence | 48.9% | 57.5% | +8.5 | 188 | |
| Octagon | 50.0% | 58.5% | +8.5 | 212 | |
| Rectangle | 50.7% | 59.2% | +8.5 | 223 | |
| Fence and open | 51.5% | 60.0% | +8.4 | 250 | |
| Breakable half fence | 49.8% | 58.2% | +8.3 | 409 | |
| Octagon | 52.8% | 61.0% | +8.2 | 267 | |
| Low fence | 54.2% | 62.2% | +8.1 | 180 | |
| Octagon | 50.0% | 57.8% | +7.9 | 237 | |
| Open | 46.5% | 54.2% | +7.7 | 212 | |
| Single wall | 51.3% | 58.9% | +7.6 | 163 | |
| Single wall | 49.9% | 57.5% | +7.6 | 167 | |
| Single wall | 53.1% | 60.7% | +7.5 | 201 | |
| Fence and open | 51.3% | 58.9% | +7.5 | 175 | |
| Open | 51.5% | 59.0% | +7.5 | 161 | |
| Breakable full fence | 55.1% | 62.6% | +7.5 | 179 |
Every stage type
How much of the data each stage type is| Full fence | 38,207 | 10.16% |
| Breakable full fence | 37,717 | 10.03% |
| Half fence | 37,261 | 9.91% |
| Breakable half fence | 37,369 | 9.93% |
| Low fence | 37,502 | 9.97% |
| Single wall | 37,238 | 9.90% |
| Fence and open | 18,643 | 4.96% |
| Octagon | 37,907 | 10.08% |
| Rectangle | 37,786 | 10.05% |
| Open | 37,806 | 10.05% |
| Not recorded | 18,703 | 4.97% |
Matches counted376,139
Stage groups2
Most affectedTaka
Widest walls gap3.1 pts
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/10/18
Is any of this chance?
The whole cut, tested at onceWalled stages dealt evenly across the rosterχ²=20.7 on 19 df, p=0.356
Matches sharing one stage drawabout 1.9, so a match is not an independent draw
Allowance made for thatevery interval and p-value here widened by ×1.14
Characters whose gap holds up3 of 20 — chance alone would give about 1.0
Matchups whose gap holds up0 of 131 — chance alone would give about 6.6
The roster taken togetherχ²=170.9 on 131 df, p=0.011
Every character, tested
The gap, the range it could be, and the odds of it being nothing| 50.8% | 49.4% | +1.4 | -1.3 … +4.2 | 0.312 | 0.552 | 7,392 | 80 | |
| 49.5% | 48.1% | +1.4 | +0.4 … +2.3 | 0.004 | 0.036 | 64,727 | 496 | |
| 50.5% | 49.2% | +1.3 | -0.0 … +2.6 | 0.059 | 0.196 | 32,055 | 284 | |
| 51.3% | 50.1% | +1.2 | +0.0 … +2.4 | 0.045 | 0.181 | 40,433 | 379 | |
| 49.2% | 48.5% | +0.7 | -0.2 … +1.6 | 0.119 | 0.297 | 69,417 | 453 | |
| 50.1% | 49.4% | +0.6 | -0.6 … +1.9 | 0.321 | 0.552 | 35,075 | 246 | |
| 50.5% | 50.2% | +0.3 | -1.0 … +1.5 | 0.684 | 0.860 | 34,715 | 273 | |
| 50.9% | 50.6% | +0.3 | -0.9 … +1.5 | 0.654 | 0.860 | 38,756 | 334 | |
| 51.8% | 51.9% | -0.1 | -1.2 … +1.1 | 0.892 | 0.892 | 42,182 | 390 | |
| 49.8% | 49.9% | -0.1 | -1.5 … +1.2 | 0.850 | 0.892 | 29,811 | 201 | |
| 51.6% | 51.8% | -0.2 | -1.7 … +1.3 | 0.789 | 0.877 | 24,418 | 250 | |
| 49.8% | 50.0% | -0.2 | -1.4 … +1.0 | 0.731 | 0.860 | 39,051 | 295 | |
| 49.1% | 49.4% | -0.3 | -1.7 … +1.2 | 0.696 | 0.860 | 27,157 | 199 | |
| 49.1% | 49.7% | -0.6 | -1.9 … +0.7 | 0.359 | 0.552 | 33,388 | 249 | |
| 47.8% | 48.5% | -0.7 | -1.9 … +0.5 | 0.251 | 0.552 | 41,092 | 325 | |
| 49.9% | 50.7% | -0.8 | -2.3 … +0.8 | 0.340 | 0.552 | 23,437 | 202 | |
| 48.2% | 49.7% | -1.5 | -2.7 … -0.3 | 0.015 | 0.075 | 38,489 | 288 | |
| 52.5% | 54.5% | -2.0 | -4.4 … +0.4 | 0.109 | 0.297 | 9,594 | 161 | |
| 50.8% | 53.0% | -2.2 | -3.5 … -0.9 | 8e−4 | 0.015 | 34,374 | 315 | |
| 52.5% | 55.6% | -3.1 | -5.2 … -0.9 | 0.005 | 0.036 | 12,023 | 184 |
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Every character, every stage
Change from that character's own win rate, in points| +0.6 | -0.9 | |
| +0.5 | -0.8 | |
| +0.7 | -0.6 | |
| +0.4 | -0.8 | |
| +0.3 | -0.4 | |
| +0.2 | -0.5 | |
| +0.1 | -0.2 | |
| +0.1 | -0.2 | |
| -0.1 | +0.0 | |
| -0.2 | -0.1 | |
| +0.1 | +0.3 | |
| -0.1 | +0.1 | |
| -0.3 | +0.0 | |
| -0.3 | +0.3 | |
| -0.3 | +0.4 | |
| -0.2 | +0.5 | |
| -0.6 | +0.9 | |
| -0.6 | +1.4 | |
| -0.6 | +1.6 | |
| -1.1 | +2.0 |
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The widest matchup gaps
One matchup behind walls against the same matchup in the open, widest first — none of them survives correction| 50.5% | 42.9% | +7.6 | +1.1 … +13.9 | 0.022 | 0.637 | 1,430 | |
| 49.9% | 42.7% | +7.2 | +2.3 … +12.1 | 0.004 | 0.554 | 2,384 | |
| 51.5% | 45.0% | +6.5 | +0.8 … +12.0 | 0.024 | 0.637 | 1,811 | |
| 52.6% | 46.9% | +5.7 | -0.8 … +12.1 | 0.086 | 0.902 | 1,323 | |
| 52.2% | 46.6% | +5.6 | +0.9 … +10.3 | 0.020 | 0.637 | 2,514 | |
| 51.5% | 45.9% | +5.6 | -1.2 … +12.2 | 0.106 | 0.902 | 1,242 | |
| 52.1% | 46.8% | +5.4 | -0.4 … +11.1 | 0.066 | 0.902 | 1,687 | |
| 51.8% | 46.6% | +5.2 | -0.7 … +11.1 | 0.084 | 0.902 | 1,622 | |
| 56.1% | 50.9% | +5.2 | -1.5 … +11.9 | 0.127 | 0.905 | 1,256 | |
| 50.5% | 45.6% | +4.8 | -1.9 … +11.5 | 0.163 | 0.905 | 1,208 | |
| 47.2% | 42.5% | +4.7 | -0.8 … +10.1 | 0.091 | 0.902 | 1,836 | |
| 52.7% | 48.1% | +4.6 | -0.5 … +9.6 | 0.073 | 0.902 | 2,235 | |
| 52.4% | 47.8% | +4.6 | +0.6 … +8.5 | 0.023 | 0.637 | 3,607 | |
| 48.8% | 44.3% | +4.5 | -0.4 … +9.4 | 0.073 | 0.902 | 2,262 | |
| 51.6% | 47.1% | +4.5 | -1.1 … +10.0 | 0.117 | 0.902 | 1,854 | |
| 53.4% | 49.0% | +4.4 | -0.7 … +9.5 | 0.088 | 0.902 | 2,135 | |
| 56.8% | 52.4% | +4.4 | -1.3 … +10.1 | 0.133 | 0.905 | 1,652 | |
| 45.6% | 41.3% | +4.3 | -1.5 … +10.0 | 0.144 | 0.905 | 1,625 | |
| 51.3% | 47.1% | +4.2 | -1.0 … +9.4 | 0.111 | 0.902 | 2,073 | |
| 48.9% | 45.1% | +3.8 | -1.5 … +8.9 | 0.159 | 0.905 | 2,029 | |
| 50.5% | 46.9% | +3.6 | -2.6 … +9.8 | 0.252 | 0.905 | 1,500 | |
| 50.9% | 47.4% | +3.6 | -1.8 … +8.9 | 0.196 | 0.905 | 1,942 | |
| 50.0% | 46.4% | +3.5 | -0.3 … +7.4 | 0.071 | 0.902 | 3,842 | |
| 50.0% | 46.4% | +3.5 | -1.5 … +8.5 | 0.166 | 0.905 | 2,251 |
Every stage type
How much of the data each stage type is| Walls | 226,247 | 60.15% |
| No walls | 112,546 | 29.92% |
| Not recorded | 18,703 | 4.97% |
Matches counted63,742
Stage types10
Most affectedGoh
Widest swing12.0 pts
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/10/18
Every character, every stage
Change from that character's own win rate, in points| -1.1 | -1.9 | -0.3 | +2.7 | +3.8 | -0.9 | -8.0 | -4.4 | +1.4 | +4.0 | |
| +0.8 | -0.8 | +4.4 | -4.1 | +3.8 | -5.9 | +0.7 | -3.5 | +2.5 | +0.1 | |
| -5.4 | +1.5 | +4.8 | +1.0 | -2.7 | +0.8 | -0.5 | -0.2 | -0.7 | -1.9 | |
| -2.5 | -0.8 | +2.6 | -1.3 | -1.2 | +2.3 | +4.2 | +5.7 | -3.9 | -3.2 | |
| +1.9 | +0.3 | -0.4 | -0.6 | -2.3 | +5.2 | -6.4 | -3.5 | +4.0 | +1.2 | |
| +1.7 | +5.1 | -3.1 | +0.6 | -2.4 | -1.7 | +0.2 | -2.2 | +0.7 | +0.3 | |
| -0.7 | -1.1 | -1.3 | +0.6 | -0.3 | +3.5 | +3.0 | -4.1 | +2.6 | -1.2 | |
| +1.8 | +0.7 | +2.9 | +1.8 | -1.6 | -2.5 | -0.5 | +3.8 | -3.6 | -2.5 | |
| -0.3 | -1.2 | -1.6 | -2.8 | +4.5 | -2.5 | +1.4 | -2.3 | +1.2 | +3.3 | |
| -0.9 | -0.4 | -2.8 | +1.8 | +0.0 | -0.2 | -1.8 | -0.8 | +0.8 | +4.3 | |
| -1.7 | +1.7 | +0.7 | -2.7 | +2.2 | -2.4 | +3.8 | +2.1 | +2.2 | -2.5 | |
| +2.9 | +1.2 | +2.5 | +0.6 | -2.5 | +2.3 | -1.9 | -1.3 | -0.9 | -3.2 | |
| +1.9 | +1.4 | +0.6 | -0.6 | -1.7 | +0.6 | -1.4 | +3.3 | -1.1 | -2.6 | |
| +2.5 | -1.2 | -1.0 | +1.4 | -0.5 | +1.4 | -3.3 | -2.6 | -0.9 | +0.2 | |
| -0.8 | -2.6 | -1.6 | +2.5 | +3.0 | -2.7 | -0.8 | +0.8 | +1.1 | +0.3 | |
| -1.9 | -2.0 | +0.2 | -0.9 | -0.5 | +3.1 | -0.1 | +0.4 | -0.5 | +0.9 | |
| -2.0 | -1.1 | -0.9 | +1.1 | +0.0 | +2.0 | +2.7 | +0.0 | -1.9 | +2.0 | |
| +2.1 | -0.0 | +1.1 | +0.3 | -2.3 | -1.0 | +0.4 | +1.3 | -0.7 | -1.0 | |
| +0.9 | +1.2 | -2.3 | -1.4 | +1.5 | +0.8 | +1.7 | +0.2 | -1.3 | +1.2 | |
| +3.0 | -0.7 | -4.0 | +1.3 | +2.2 | -6.8 | -37.9 | +3.7 | +10.7 | +6.6 |
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The matchups the stage decides
One matchup on one stage, against the same matchup everywhere| Single wall | 47.9% | 75.0% | +27.1 | 36 | |
| Octagon | 49.8% | 76.0% | +26.2 | 25 | |
| Full fence | 42.0% | 64.5% | +22.5 | 31 | |
| Breakable half fence | 48.7% | 71.0% | +22.3 | 31 | |
| Low fence | 52.1% | 74.3% | +22.2 | 35 | |
| Single wall | 47.6% | 69.4% | +21.8 | 36 | |
| Rectangle | 53.3% | 75.0% | +21.7 | 32 | |
| Half fence | 55.9% | 77.1% | +21.2 | 35 | |
| Half fence | 54.9% | 76.0% | +21.1 | 25 | |
| Rectangle | 50.2% | 71.0% | +20.8 | 31 | |
| Open | 44.9% | 65.6% | +20.7 | 32 | |
| Breakable full fence | 52.5% | 73.1% | +20.6 | 26 | |
| Octagon | 44.2% | 64.6% | +20.4 | 48 | |
| Fence and open | 47.2% | 66.7% | +19.5 | 27 | |
| Half fence | 50.2% | 69.2% | +19.1 | 26 | |
| Single wall | 58.0% | 76.9% | +18.9 | 26 | |
| Low fence | 53.7% | 72.5% | +18.8 | 40 | |
| Full fence | 44.4% | 63.0% | +18.5 | 27 | |
| Half fence | 48.4% | 66.7% | +18.2 | 27 | |
| Single wall | 50.0% | 68.2% | +18.2 | 44 | |
| Octagon | 53.7% | 71.9% | +18.1 | 32 | |
| Octagon | 47.6% | 65.5% | +17.9 | 29 | |
| Half fence | 47.9% | 65.5% | +17.6 | 29 | |
| Half fence | 55.8% | 73.3% | +17.5 | 60 |
Every stage type
How much of the data each stage type is| Full fence | 6,411 | 10.06% |
| Breakable full fence | 6,440 | 10.10% |
| Half fence | 6,477 | 10.16% |
| Breakable half fence | 6,337 | 9.94% |
| Low fence | 6,287 | 9.86% |
| Single wall | 6,372 | 10.00% |
| Fence and open | 3,116 | 4.89% |
| Octagon | 6,476 | 10.16% |
| Rectangle | 6,400 | 10.04% |
| Open | 6,273 | 9.84% |
| Not recorded | 3,153 | 4.95% |
Matches counted63,742
Stage groups2
Most affected—
Widest walls gap—
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/10/18
Is any of this chance?
The whole cut, tested at onceWalled stages dealt evenly across the rosterχ²=17.0 on 19 df, p=0.592
Matches sharing one stage drawabout 2.0, so a match is not an independent draw
Allowance made for thatevery interval and p-value here widened by ×1.15
Characters whose gap holds up0 of 20 — chance alone would give about 1.0
Matchups whose gap holds up0 of 118 — chance alone would give about 5.9
The roster taken togetherχ²=157.0 on 118 df, p=0.010
Every character, tested
The gap, the range it could be, and the odds of it being nothing| 47.4% | 44.0% | +3.4 | +0.1 … +6.7 | 0.043 | 0.329 | 5,183 | 24 | |
| 55.2% | 53.1% | +2.1 | -0.1 … +4.4 | 0.065 | 0.329 | 11,004 | 63 | |
| 51.8% | 49.7% | +2.1 | -8.5 … +12.8 | 0.696 | 0.829 | 493 | 13 | |
| 52.6% | 50.5% | +2.1 | -0.3 … +4.5 | 0.082 | 0.329 | 10,521 | 70 | |
| 55.4% | 53.5% | +1.9 | -1.3 … +5.1 | 0.237 | 0.562 | 5,643 | 31 | |
| 51.7% | 50.0% | +1.6 | -2.3 … +5.6 | 0.415 | 0.638 | 3,771 | 37 | |
| 49.0% | 47.5% | +1.5 | -2.5 … +5.5 | 0.455 | 0.650 | 3,640 | 24 | |
| 50.0% | 48.7% | +1.3 | -1.2 … +3.9 | 0.303 | 0.562 | 8,824 | 71 | |
| 53.3% | 52.6% | +0.6 | -3.9 … +5.2 | 0.781 | 0.868 | 2,689 | 29 | |
| 46.5% | 46.1% | +0.4 | -3.7 … +4.4 | 0.851 | 0.868 | 3,427 | 48 | |
| 48.0% | 48.2% | -0.3 | -3.3 … +2.8 | 0.868 | 0.868 | 6,325 | 34 | |
| 47.6% | 48.3% | -0.7 | -4.5 … +3.0 | 0.705 | 0.829 | 4,063 | 35 | |
| 46.4% | 47.5% | -1.1 | -5.7 … +3.5 | 0.640 | 0.829 | 2,654 | 45 | |
| 44.4% | 45.8% | -1.4 | -4.4 … +1.5 | 0.342 | 0.570 | 6,729 | 31 | |
| 48.6% | 50.2% | -1.6 | -4.6 … +1.4 | 0.309 | 0.562 | 6,251 | 47 | |
| 48.7% | 50.3% | -1.6 | -4.2 … +0.9 | 0.199 | 0.562 | 9,122 | 62 | |
| 47.5% | 49.4% | -1.9 | -5.3 … +1.4 | 0.261 | 0.562 | 5,112 | 38 | |
| 50.2% | 52.4% | -2.2 | -4.6 … +0.2 | 0.071 | 0.329 | 10,200 | 84 | |
| 51.9% | 54.9% | -3.0 | -6.2 … +0.2 | 0.070 | 0.329 | 5,458 | 42 | |
| 47.0% | 50.1% | -3.1 | -7.0 … +0.8 | 0.120 | 0.400 | 3,837 | 21 |
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Every character, every stage
Change from that character's own win rate, in points| +1.2 | -2.2 | |
| +0.9 | -1.2 | |
| +2.2 | +0.1 | |
| +0.7 | -1.4 | |
| +0.8 | -1.1 | |
| +0.5 | -1.2 | |
| +0.3 | -1.2 | |
| +0.4 | -0.9 | |
| -0.1 | -0.7 | |
| -0.1 | -0.5 | |
| -0.1 | +0.2 | |
| -0.3 | +0.4 | |
| +0.2 | +1.3 | |
| -0.7 | +0.7 | |
| -0.4 | +1.1 | |
| -0.4 | +1.3 | |
| -0.8 | +1.1 | |
| -0.8 | +1.4 | |
| -1.2 | +1.9 | |
| -0.7 | +2.4 |
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The widest matchup gaps
One matchup behind walls against the same matchup in the open, widest first — none of them survives correction| 51.4% | 32.4% | +19.0 | +2.0 … +34.3 | 0.028 | 0.668 | 181 | |
| 48.8% | 32.5% | +16.3 | +3.8 … +27.9 | 0.011 | 0.437 | 339 | |
| 61.6% | 45.3% | +16.3 | -0.7 … +32.3 | 0.060 | 0.769 | 202 | |
| 49.6% | 34.6% | +15.0 | -1.2 … +29.9 | 0.070 | 0.769 | 201 | |
| 57.8% | 43.8% | +14.0 | +3.6 … +24.1 | 0.008 | 0.437 | 512 | |
| 56.9% | 43.0% | +13.9 | -1.9 … +28.9 | 0.085 | 0.769 | 223 | |
| 54.8% | 41.2% | +13.6 | -1.0 … +27.3 | 0.069 | 0.769 | 319 | |
| 56.2% | 42.7% | +13.5 | -1.7 … +27.9 | 0.082 | 0.769 | 235 | |
| 60.9% | 47.7% | +13.2 | +2.2 … +23.9 | 0.018 | 0.537 | 483 | |
| 49.1% | 36.1% | +13.0 | -1.4 … +26.5 | 0.077 | 0.769 | 260 | |
| 56.2% | 44.6% | +11.7 | -2.8 … +25.6 | 0.115 | 0.860 | 268 | |
| 54.9% | 44.3% | +10.6 | -3.5 … +24.1 | 0.141 | 0.860 | 321 | |
| 58.1% | 47.5% | +10.6 | -3.4 … +24.1 | 0.139 | 0.860 | 280 | |
| 49.0% | 39.0% | +10.1 | -3.9 … +23.2 | 0.156 | 0.860 | 303 | |
| 59.0% | 49.0% | +10.0 | +0.6 … +19.3 | 0.037 | 0.728 | 678 | |
| 54.2% | 44.2% | +9.9 | -3.5 … +22.9 | 0.149 | 0.860 | 320 | |
| 52.9% | 43.1% | +9.8 | -1.7 … +20.9 | 0.097 | 0.814 | 404 | |
| 57.4% | 47.9% | +9.5 | -3.6 … +22.3 | 0.157 | 0.860 | 314 | |
| 58.9% | 49.5% | +9.4 | -4.1 … +22.6 | 0.175 | 0.860 | 325 | |
| 52.9% | 43.7% | +9.2 | -8.1 … +25.8 | 0.299 | 0.970 | 175 | |
| 55.4% | 46.3% | +9.2 | +2.1 … +16.1 | 0.011 | 0.437 | 1,175 | |
| 56.1% | 47.1% | +9.1 | -8.6 … +26.1 | 0.319 | 0.970 | 166 | |
| 50.6% | 42.6% | +8.0 | -5.5 … +21.0 | 0.248 | 0.970 | 293 | |
| 58.9% | 51.0% | +7.8 | -5.5 … +21.1 | 0.254 | 0.970 | 344 |
Every stage type
How much of the data each stage type is| Walls | 38,541 | 60.46% |
| No walls | 18,932 | 29.70% |
| Not recorded | 3,153 | 4.95% |
