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Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Rank 21–46

Stage Impact To Match WP

WP = win probability: here, the chance of winning the match.

Matches counted813,994
Stage types10
Most affectedTaka
Widest swing5.2 pts
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/10/18

Every character, every stage

Change from that character's own win rate, in points
Taka-2.3+0.2-0.5+0.4+1.0+2.9-0.4-1.2+0.2-0.4
Eileen+0.5+2.5-1.2+0.5-1.0+0.7-1.7-2.4-0.2+1.9
Lion-0.3-0.6-0.1+0.6-1.1+1.7-1.5-0.9-0.4+2.2
Jeffry+0.8+0.5-0.6-0.1+0.2-1.5+1.4+0.7+1.0-1.7
Wolf-1.1-0.3-0.4-1.1+1.0+0.5-0.1-0.6+0.6+1.3
Goh-0.3-0.3-0.5-0.9+0.5+0.8-0.0-0.3-0.8+1.3
Lau+0.2+0.7-0.1-1.0-0.8-0.6+0.4+1.2+0.6-0.7
Kage-0.0+0.7+0.3+0.1+0.5-0.2+1.5-0.5-0.6-0.7
Vanessa+0.6-0.8+0.1-0.3+1.3+0.5+0.5-0.8+0.3-0.7
Aoi-0.6-0.8-0.1-0.7-0.4+0.5+1.2-0.3+1.0+0.3
Sarah-0.7+0.7+0.7+0.9-0.2-0.6-0.3+0.8-1.1-0.3
Pai-0.6-0.3+0.1+0.5+0.3-0.1-1.4+0.3+0.0+0.5
El Blaze+0.8+0.4-0.7-0.7-0.5+0.5+0.4+0.1+1.1-0.1
Brad-0.2-0.1-0.3+0.2-0.2+0.7+0.7+0.9-0.8-0.1
Shun+0.2-0.2-0.4+0.6-0.3+0.5+0.2+0.3-1.1+0.2
Jacky+0.3+0.2+0.5+0.6+0.1-0.9-0.5+0.6-0.1-1.0
Jean+0.7-0.0+0.5+0.1+0.3-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.9+0.3
Akira+0.7-0.3+0.4+0.0-0.8-0.6+0.0+0.2+0.6-0.3
Lei Fei+0.3-0.1+0.0+0.3+0.7-0.1+0.4-0.8-0.4-0.2
Dural-1.4-0.2+1.9+1.5+1.4-0.1-4.1-0.9+1.3-0.9
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

The matchups the stage decides

One matchup on one stage, against the same matchup everywhere
Lau vs AoiBreakable full fence52.0%59.6%+7.6495
Aoi vs JackyFence and open48.2%55.5%+7.3427
Brad vs GohHalf fence50.9%57.7%+6.8345
Jean vs PaiHalf fence50.1%56.3%+6.2435
Akira vs TakaFull fence44.7%50.8%+6.1417
Jean vs LauFull fence47.5%53.6%+6.1459
Wolf vs LauLow fence47.5%53.3%+5.8591
Lion vs JeffryOpen48.3%54.1%+5.8468
Pai vs JeanRectangle49.9%55.7%+5.8404
Eileen vs AkiraBreakable full fence52.2%57.7%+5.5369
Shun vs LionFull fence46.7%52.2%+5.5429
Goh vs PaiOpen49.1%54.6%+5.5480
Brad vs SarahOctagon50.5%55.9%+5.4431
Sarah vs ShunOctagon51.1%56.5%+5.3510
Aoi vs El BlazeHalf fence45.2%50.5%+5.3366
Wolf vs SarahSingle wall50.3%55.6%+5.3649
Vanessa vs JackyLow fence50.4%55.7%+5.3539
Pai vs BradHalf fence49.7%55.0%+5.2391
Sarah vs AoiBreakable half fence49.9%55.1%+5.2537
Brad vs GohFull fence50.9%56.1%+5.2374
Pai vs El BlazeBreakable half fence49.7%54.9%+5.2359
Lion vs GohOpen51.5%56.7%+5.1411
Wolf vs BradOpen46.1%51.2%+5.1412
Goh vs LauSingle wall47.6%52.7%+5.0448

Every stage type

How much of the data each stage type is
Full fence82,167
Breakable full fence81,652
Half fence81,525
Breakable half fence81,432
Low fence80,934
Single wall80,446
Fence and open40,554
Octagon81,419
Rectangle81,933
Open81,282
Not recorded40,650
Matches counted813,994
Stage groups2
Most affectedWolf
Widest walls gap1.4 pts
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/10/18

Is any of this chance?

The whole cut, tested at once
Walled stages dealt evenly across the rosterχ²=23.8 on 19 df, p=0.205
Matches sharing one stage drawabout 2.0, so a match is not an independent draw
Allowance made for thatevery interval and p-value here widened by ×1.36
Characters whose gap holds up1 of 20 — chance alone would give about 1.0
Matchups whose gap holds up0 of 124 — chance alone would give about 6.2
The roster taken togetherχ²=230.6 on 124 df, p=2e−8

Every character, tested

The gap, the range it could be, and the odds of it being nothing
Jeffry51.4%50.0%+1.4+0.4 … +2.40.0060.05282,094980
Lau51.6%50.6%+1.0-0.0 … +2.00.0610.15376,831845
Jacky50.2%49.3%+0.9+0.1 … +1.70.0200.075133,5771,240
Akira48.7%47.9%+0.8+0.1 … +1.60.0180.075161,3361,200
Sarah49.9%49.3%+0.6-0.4 … +1.50.2650.58984,499781
Dural52.8%52.6%+0.2-2.3 … +2.70.8810.92712,586181
El Blaze51.7%51.6%+0.1-1.1 … +1.40.8220.91353,945598
Kage51.1%50.9%+0.1-0.9 … +1.10.8100.91379,731898
Jean51.0%51.0%+0.0-1.1 … +1.10.9950.99568,119767
Brad50.4%50.6%-0.2-1.3 … +0.90.7580.91362,689683
Pai49.8%50.0%-0.2-1.2 … +0.80.6910.91382,578845
Shun49.5%49.7%-0.2-1.2 … +0.80.6610.91378,046654
Lei Fei50.3%50.5%-0.2-1.5 … +1.00.7150.91351,362532
Aoi47.7%48.1%-0.4-1.4 … +0.60.4540.82582,044679
Vanessa49.5%50.0%-0.5-1.8 … +0.70.4140.82551,340569
Eileen51.4%52.0%-0.6-2.3 … +1.20.5280.88027,180434
Lion50.2%51.4%-1.2-2.3 … -0.20.0220.07573,502841
Goh48.6%50.0%-1.4-2.4 … -0.40.0080.05277,655871
Wolf48.9%50.4%-1.4-2.3 … -0.50.0020.03899,221960
Taka52.7%54.4%-1.7-3.4 … +0.00.0560.15327,245519
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Every character, every stage

Change from that character's own win rate, in points
Jeffry+0.4-1.0
Lau+0.3-0.7
Jacky+0.3-0.6
Akira+0.3-0.6
Sarah+0.2-0.4
Dural+0.4+0.2
El Blaze+0.1+0.0
Kage-0.0-0.1
Jean-0.0-0.0
Brad-0.1+0.1
Pai+0.0+0.2
Shun-0.1+0.1
Lei Fei-0.1+0.1
Aoi-0.2+0.1
Vanessa-0.2+0.4
Eileen-0.1+0.5
Lion-0.3+0.9
Goh-0.5+0.9
Wolf-0.5+0.9
Taka-0.5+1.1
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

The widest matchup gaps

One matchup behind walls against the same matchup in the open, widest first — none of them survives correction
Lau vs Wolf53.9%49.1%+4.8+0.8 … +8.70.0190.7795,033
Lau vs Aoi53.5%48.8%+4.7+0.3 … +9.00.0350.7794,171
El Blaze vs Lion51.9%47.3%+4.6-0.8 … +10.00.0950.7792,714
Sarah vs Vanessa52.2%47.6%+4.6-0.5 … +9.70.0760.7793,193
Eileen vs Akira53.7%49.4%+4.4-0.6 … +9.30.0830.7793,298
Jeffry vs Vanessa49.3%45.1%+4.2-1.0 … +9.30.1130.7793,134
Jacky vs Vanessa50.8%46.7%+4.2+0.2 … +8.10.0410.7795,207
Kage vs Lion51.1%47.0%+4.2-0.0 … +8.30.0510.7794,539
Sarah vs Wolf50.8%46.7%+4.1+0.5 … +7.70.0280.7796,169
Jeffry vs Lei Fei53.9%49.9%+4.1-1.1 … +9.20.1240.7792,910
Pai vs Brad51.5%47.6%+3.9-0.8 … +8.70.1050.7793,527
Sarah vs Lei Fei52.5%48.8%+3.8-1.3 … +8.80.1480.7793,147
Lau vs Goh53.1%49.6%+3.6-0.8 … +8.00.1100.7794,169
Shun vs Lion47.6%44.1%+3.6-0.8 … +8.00.1110.7794,157
Akira vs Wolf48.8%45.2%+3.6+1.0 … +6.10.0060.77912,437
Lei Fei vs Wolf51.3%47.8%+3.5-1.3 … +8.20.1570.7793,474
Shun vs El Blaze51.0%47.6%+3.4-1.8 … +8.50.1970.8113,040
Jeffry vs Goh52.3%49.0%+3.3-0.9 … +7.50.1250.7794,601
Jeffry vs Shun51.0%47.8%+3.2-1.0 … +7.30.1340.7794,609
El Blaze vs Goh54.6%51.5%+3.1-2.0 … +8.30.2350.8113,105
Sarah vs Kage49.4%46.4%+3.0-1.1 … +7.20.1540.7794,673
Brad vs Jean51.8%48.9%+3.0-2.1 … +8.00.2510.8113,080
Brad vs Aoi48.9%46.0%+2.9-1.8 … +7.70.2280.8113,530
Lau vs Jean53.5%50.5%+2.9-1.7 … +7.50.2130.8113,774

Every stage type

How much of the data each stage type is
Walls490,128
No walls242,662
Not recorded40,650
Matches counted374,113
Stage types10
Most affectedEileen
Widest swing4.6 pts
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/10/18

Every character, every stage

Change from that character's own win rate, in points
Eileen+1.4+2.1-0.8+1.7-1.8+0.6-1.6-2.5-1.0+2.1
Lion-0.1+0.0+0.7+1.6-2.3+0.6-1.5-1.2-0.3+2.1
Lau-0.3-0.7-0.1-1.3-0.8-1.3+0.6+2.9+1.1-1.4
Jeffry+0.4+0.6-0.8+0.1+0.2-1.5+1.9+1.6+0.6-2.3
Wolf-1.9-0.5-0.6-1.1+1.0+1.4+0.1-0.4+0.8+1.9
Vanessa-0.9-1.8+0.8+1.9+0.6-0.3-0.7+0.7+0.2-0.2
Taka-2.2+0.8-0.1+0.8-0.3+2.4-1.9-0.6+1.2+0.4
Lei Fei+1.2+0.4-0.4-0.3+1.8-0.3+0.6-0.4-1.4+0.4
Goh+0.6+0.5-0.0-2.1+0.2+1.0-1.2+0.3-1.1+1.0
Jean+1.5+1.3+0.3-0.5+1.1-1.5-0.6-1.5-1.0-0.7
Kage+0.2+1.5-0.6-0.3+0.3-0.5+0.9-1.1-0.2-0.2
El Blaze+1.1+0.8+0.6-0.5-0.8-0.1-0.0-0.1+0.9-1.4
Brad+1.0-0.7+0.3-0.2+0.9+0.6+1.1+0.2-1.5-0.4
Sarah-1.5+0.7+1.0+0.5+0.5-0.7-0.9-0.3+0.2-0.0
Shun+0.7+1.1-0.5+0.5-1.4+0.8-0.2+0.0-1.2+0.5
Aoi-0.2-1.0-0.4-0.9+0.2+1.1+1.2-0.4+1.1-0.1
Pai-1.0-1.1-0.3+0.6+1.0+0.1-0.4-0.1-0.4+0.9
Jacky+0.8+0.6-0.1-0.1-0.5-0.3-0.7+0.8+0.2-1.0
Akira+0.6-0.8+0.4+0.7-0.5-0.8+0.9+0.1+0.1-0.5
Dural-3.1-2.2+3.8+3.3+2.4+1.2-6.4-3.1+0.6+2.4
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

The matchups the stage decides

One matchup on one stage, against the same matchup everywhere
Lei Fei vs ShunSingle wall55.4%66.7%+11.2159
Vanessa vs SarahOpen50.1%60.8%+10.7153
Pai vs BradFull fence50.0%60.7%+10.7145
Jean vs PaiHalf fence51.0%61.4%+10.4223
El Blaze vs JeanHalf fence47.7%58.0%+10.3143
Shun vs LionOctagon45.9%55.8%+9.9199
Aoi vs JackyFence and open45.2%55.1%+9.9263
El Blaze vs SarahOctagon51.5%61.3%+9.8212
Shun vs El BlazeBreakable half fence49.8%59.5%+9.7153
Sarah vs BradRectangle49.3%59.0%+9.6190
Akira vs TakaFull fence45.3%54.9%+9.6226
Jeffry vs VanessaBreakable full fence47.8%57.3%+9.6157
Shun vs AoiFull fence53.3%62.6%+9.3281
Wolf vs LauOpen47.5%56.7%+9.3238
Lau vs JeffryOpen47.9%56.9%+9.0160
Jeffry vs JeanLow fence46.1%55.0%+8.9191
Pai vs VanessaOpen50.2%58.9%+8.6158
Sarah vs El BlazeLow fence48.5%57.1%+8.6177
Goh vs PaiOpen49.5%58.0%+8.5250
Jeffry vs LauFull fence52.1%60.5%+8.3167
Pai vs JeanRectangle49.0%57.3%+8.3206
Pai vs BradBreakable half fence50.0%58.3%+8.2163
Jeffry vs KageFull fence50.8%58.8%+8.0199
Lion vs PaiFull fence50.5%58.4%+7.9214

Every stage type

How much of the data each stage type is
Full fence37,549
Breakable full fence37,495
Half fence37,787
Breakable half fence37,726
Low fence37,145
Single wall36,836
Fence and open18,795
Octagon37,036
Rectangle37,747
Open37,203
Not recorded18,794
Matches counted374,113
Stage groups2
Most affectedWolf
Widest walls gap2.1 pts
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/10/18

Is any of this chance?

The whole cut, tested at once
Walled stages dealt evenly across the rosterχ²=17.0 on 19 df, p=0.587
Matches sharing one stage drawabout 2.0, so a match is not an independent draw
Allowance made for thatevery interval and p-value here widened by ×1.28
Characters whose gap holds up1 of 20 — chance alone would give about 1.0
Matchups whose gap holds up0 of 124 — chance alone would give about 6.2
The roster taken togetherχ²=203.3 on 124 df, p=9e−6

Every character, tested

The gap, the range it could be, and the odds of it being nothing
Jeffry51.9%50.2%+1.7+0.3 … +3.00.0180.17838,234759
Lau51.0%49.6%+1.5-0.1 … +3.10.0760.34027,071612
El Blaze51.8%50.6%+1.2-0.5 … +2.90.1690.42324,069424
Jacky51.0%50.1%+0.9-0.1 … +2.00.0900.34058,650916
Akira47.8%47.0%+0.8-0.1 … +1.70.0990.34081,398932
Jean53.2%52.8%+0.4-1.3 … +2.00.6660.95126,414582
Sarah50.0%49.9%+0.1-1.1 … +1.40.8320.97144,241617
Shun50.1%50.0%+0.1-1.2 … +1.50.8720.97138,333499
Vanessa50.7%50.6%+0.1-1.7 … +1.90.9160.97121,174434
Kage50.3%50.2%+0.1-1.5 … +1.60.9590.97128,725624
Lion50.0%49.9%+0.0-1.5 … +1.60.9710.97130,006623
Eileen50.5%50.7%-0.2-2.5 … +2.10.8680.97113,815321
Brad50.8%51.3%-0.5-2.3 … +1.30.5960.91721,723500
Aoi46.3%47.0%-0.7-1.9 … +0.50.2630.53448,593545
Lei Fei50.4%51.2%-0.8-2.8 … +1.10.4150.75518,562392
Taka52.9%53.7%-0.9-3.2 … +1.50.4810.80212,533375
Pai49.5%50.6%-1.1-2.3 … +0.20.1020.34045,411656
Goh49.2%50.3%-1.1-2.5 … +0.40.1430.40935,329689
Wolf49.9%51.9%-2.1-3.2 … -0.94e−40.00954,066754
Dural55.8%58.0%-2.2-6.0 … +1.70.2670.5344,701123
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Every character, every stage

Change from that character's own win rate, in points
Jeffry+0.4-1.2
Lau+0.3-1.2
El Blaze+0.5-0.7
Jacky+0.3-0.6
Akira+0.2-0.6
Jean+0.0-0.3
Sarah+0.1-0.1
Shun+0.1+0.0
Vanessa+0.1+0.0
Kage-0.1-0.1
Lion+0.1+0.1
Eileen+0.1+0.3
Brad-0.1+0.3
Aoi-0.3+0.4
Lei Fei-0.2+0.6
Taka-0.0+0.8
Pai-0.4+0.7
Goh-0.3+0.7
Wolf-0.6+1.4
Dural-0.2+2.0
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

The widest matchup gaps

One matchup behind walls against the same matchup in the open, widest first — none of them survives correction
Jeffry vs Vanessa50.5%42.3%+8.2+0.8 … +15.40.0290.8061,381
Eileen vs Akira57.3%49.3%+8.0+1.9 … +14.00.0100.5991,884
El Blaze vs Goh54.1%46.5%+7.6+0.2 … +15.00.0440.8061,320
Lau vs Wolf54.3%47.3%+7.0+1.4 … +12.60.0150.5992,221
Jacky vs Eileen53.1%46.6%+6.6-1.1 … +14.20.0930.8061,219
Jacky vs Lei Fei52.2%45.9%+6.3-0.5 … +13.10.0710.8061,514
Pai vs Brad52.3%46.5%+5.8-1.0 … +12.60.0920.8061,521
Lion vs Pai52.2%46.6%+5.7-0.1 … +11.40.0550.8062,111
Akira vs Wolf47.6%42.5%+5.1+2.0 … +8.20.0010.1617,237
Lau vs Sarah49.2%44.3%+4.9-1.0 … +10.80.1010.8062,093
El Blaze vs Sarah53.2%48.3%+4.9-1.4 … +11.20.1300.8751,734
El Blaze vs Lion52.1%47.3%+4.8-3.0 … +12.60.2250.8801,168
Lei Fei vs Wolf49.8%45.1%+4.7-2.0 … +11.40.1670.8801,560
Brad vs Goh52.2%47.5%+4.7-2.7 … +12.10.2140.8801,252
Vanessa vs Goh53.2%48.6%+4.7-3.7 … +12.90.2760.880987
Akira vs Brad50.3%45.7%+4.6-0.2 … +9.40.0610.8063,071
Brad vs Shun51.8%47.3%+4.5-2.9 … +11.80.2370.8801,267
Jeffry vs Jacky51.5%47.0%+4.5+0.1 … +8.80.0430.8063,729
Sarah vs Wolf49.8%45.5%+4.3-0.1 … +8.60.0570.8063,721
Lau vs Jean50.5%46.3%+4.2-3.9 … +12.30.3090.8801,042
Lion vs Aoi53.7%49.5%+4.2-1.2 … +9.60.1260.8752,446
Kage vs Lau51.9%47.7%+4.2-3.7 … +11.90.2970.8801,192
Shun vs Pai52.6%48.5%+4.2-0.8 … +9.20.1040.8062,803
Lau vs Aoi53.9%49.8%+4.1-1.9 … +10.10.1770.8801,895

Every stage type

How much of the data each stage type is
Walls225,340
No walls111,184
Not recorded18,794
Matches counted376,139
Stage types10
Most affectedTaka
Widest swing6.8 pts
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/10/18

Every character, every stage

Change from that character's own win rate, in points
Taka-2.3-0.1-1.4+0.4+3.1+3.5+0.2-3.3-0.0-0.5
Vanessa+2.3+0.3-0.2-2.5+2.4+0.3+0.9-1.1-0.2-1.2
Lion-0.2-1.2-0.0-0.6-0.3+3.1-1.4-0.8-0.9+1.8
Pai+0.2+1.2+0.7+0.5-0.6-1.0-3.0+0.9+0.6-0.2
Sarah-0.1+0.7+0.0+1.3-0.8-0.2+0.5+1.6-2.2-0.2
El Blaze+0.6+0.3-1.9-0.3-1.3+1.8+0.6+0.8+1.3+0.5
Jacky+0.3+0.0+1.3+1.1+0.7-1.9-1.0+0.5-0.2-1.3
Goh-0.9-0.8-1.0-0.1+0.5+0.8+1.8-0.4-0.6+1.3
Kage+0.1-0.2+0.9+0.9+0.2+0.5+1.4-0.7-1.4-0.7
Brad-1.1-0.1-0.3+0.7-1.2+0.7+0.3+1.5-0.4-0.1
Jeffry+1.1+0.5-0.8+0.1+0.1-1.1+0.9+0.3+1.3-1.3
Akira+0.6+0.3+0.3-0.9-0.8-0.3-1.1+0.2+1.4-0.1
Lau+0.2+1.6-0.3-1.0-0.6-0.3+0.7-0.6+0.7+0.4
Aoi-0.8-0.8-0.3-0.4-1.2-0.4+1.3-0.1+0.9+1.3
Wolf-0.4-0.0-0.0-1.3+1.1-0.7-0.1-0.8+0.6+0.7
Shun-0.1-1.2-0.1+0.4+0.3+0.8+0.8+0.6-1.4-0.2
Jean+0.1-0.9+0.6+0.7+0.1-0.6-0.9+0.2-1.1+1.0
Lei Fei-0.8-0.9-0.3+0.7+0.6-0.5+0.7-0.9+0.5-0.1
Eileen-1.4+1.9-1.2-1.3+0.5+1.7-2.5-2.1+0.7+2.2
Dural-0.7+1.0+1.3+0.3+1.1-0.3-1.5+0.2+1.2-3.5
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

The matchups the stage decides

One matchup on one stage, against the same matchup everywhere
Lau vs AoiBreakable full fence49.5%63.3%+13.8207
Lion vs AoiSingle wall53.9%66.1%+12.2165
Shun vs LionFull fence45.8%56.2%+10.4169
Shun vs AoiOctagon51.1%60.9%+9.8161
Lau vs JackySingle wall50.7%60.3%+9.6421
Brad vs LionOctagon49.5%58.7%+9.1196
Sarah vs LauBreakable half fence49.5%58.6%+9.1186
Lei Fei vs LionBreakable half fence48.2%57.1%+8.9175
Jeffry vs AoiRectangle53.5%62.1%+8.6203
Aoi vs ShunFull fence48.9%57.5%+8.5188
Sarah vs LionOctagon50.0%58.5%+8.5212
Pai vs SarahRectangle50.7%59.2%+8.5223
Lau vs AkiraFence and open51.5%60.0%+8.4250
Brad vs AkiraBreakable half fence49.8%58.2%+8.3409
Jean vs GohOctagon52.8%61.0%+8.2267
Lion vs ShunLow fence54.2%62.2%+8.1180
Brad vs SarahOctagon50.0%57.8%+7.9237
Aoi vs JeffryOpen46.5%54.2%+7.7212
El Blaze vs LauSingle wall51.3%58.9%+7.6163
Shun vs JeanSingle wall49.9%57.5%+7.6167
Lion vs PaiSingle wall53.1%60.7%+7.5201
Akira vs PaiFence and open51.3%58.9%+7.5175
Brad vs VanessaOpen51.5%59.0%+7.5161
Jeffry vs Lei FeiBreakable full fence55.1%62.6%+7.5179

Every stage type

How much of the data each stage type is
Full fence38,207
Breakable full fence37,717
Half fence37,261
Breakable half fence37,369
Low fence37,502
Single wall37,238
Fence and open18,643
Octagon37,907
Rectangle37,786
Open37,806
Not recorded18,703
Matches counted376,139
Stage groups2
Most affectedTaka
Widest walls gap3.1 pts
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/10/18

Is any of this chance?

The whole cut, tested at once
Walled stages dealt evenly across the rosterχ²=20.7 on 19 df, p=0.356
Matches sharing one stage drawabout 1.9, so a match is not an independent draw
Allowance made for thatevery interval and p-value here widened by ×1.14
Characters whose gap holds up3 of 20 — chance alone would give about 1.0
Matchups whose gap holds up0 of 131 — chance alone would give about 6.6
The roster taken togetherχ²=170.9 on 131 df, p=0.011

Every character, tested

The gap, the range it could be, and the odds of it being nothing
Dural50.8%49.4%+1.4-1.3 … +4.20.3120.5527,39280
Jacky49.5%48.1%+1.4+0.4 … +2.30.0040.03664,727496
Pai50.5%49.2%+1.3-0.0 … +2.60.0590.19632,055284
Jeffry51.3%50.1%+1.2+0.0 … +2.40.0450.18140,433379
Akira49.2%48.5%+0.7-0.2 … +1.60.1190.29769,417453
Sarah50.1%49.4%+0.6-0.6 … +1.90.3210.55235,075246
Brad50.5%50.2%+0.3-1.0 … +1.50.6840.86034,715273
Lau50.9%50.6%+0.3-0.9 … +1.50.6540.86038,756334
Kage51.8%51.9%-0.1-1.2 … +1.10.8920.89242,182390
Aoi49.8%49.9%-0.1-1.5 … +1.20.8500.89229,811201
El Blaze51.6%51.8%-0.2-1.7 … +1.30.7890.87724,418250
Jean49.8%50.0%-0.2-1.4 … +1.00.7310.86039,051295
Lei Fei49.1%49.4%-0.3-1.7 … +1.20.6960.86027,157199
Shun49.1%49.7%-0.6-1.9 … +0.70.3590.55233,388249
Wolf47.8%48.5%-0.7-1.9 … +0.50.2510.55241,092325
Vanessa49.9%50.7%-0.8-2.3 … +0.80.3400.55223,437202
Goh48.2%49.7%-1.5-2.7 … -0.30.0150.07538,489288
Eileen52.5%54.5%-2.0-4.4 … +0.40.1090.2979,594161
Lion50.8%53.0%-2.2-3.5 … -0.98e−40.01534,374315
Taka52.5%55.6%-3.1-5.2 … -0.90.0050.03612,023184
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Every character, every stage

Change from that character's own win rate, in points
Dural+0.6-0.9
Jacky+0.5-0.8
Pai+0.7-0.6
Jeffry+0.4-0.8
Akira+0.3-0.4
Sarah+0.2-0.5
Brad+0.1-0.2
Lau+0.1-0.2
Kage-0.1+0.0
Aoi-0.2-0.1
El Blaze+0.1+0.3
Jean-0.1+0.1
Lei Fei-0.3+0.0
Shun-0.3+0.3
Wolf-0.3+0.4
Vanessa-0.2+0.5
Goh-0.6+0.9
Eileen-0.6+1.4
Lion-0.6+1.6
Taka-1.1+2.0
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

The widest matchup gaps

One matchup behind walls against the same matchup in the open, widest first — none of them survives correction
Lei Fei vs Lion50.5%42.9%+7.6+1.1 … +13.90.0220.6371,430
Jacky vs Vanessa49.9%42.7%+7.2+2.3 … +12.10.0040.5542,384
Lau vs Aoi51.5%45.0%+6.5+0.8 … +12.00.0240.6371,811
Sarah vs Vanessa52.6%46.9%+5.7-0.8 … +12.10.0860.9021,323
Kage vs Lion52.2%46.6%+5.6+0.9 … +10.30.0200.6372,514
Shun vs El Blaze51.5%45.9%+5.6-1.2 … +12.20.1060.9021,242
Aoi vs Jean52.1%46.8%+5.4-0.4 … +11.10.0660.9021,687
Pai vs Sarah51.8%46.6%+5.2-0.7 … +11.10.0840.9021,622
Pai vs Lei Fei56.1%50.9%+5.2-1.5 … +11.90.1270.9051,256
Vanessa vs Brad50.5%45.6%+4.8-1.9 … +11.50.1630.9051,208
Shun vs Lion47.2%42.5%+4.7-0.8 … +10.10.0910.9021,836
Sarah vs Wolf52.7%48.1%+4.6-0.5 … +9.60.0730.9022,235
Jacky vs Shun52.4%47.8%+4.6+0.6 … +8.50.0230.6373,607
Sarah vs Kage48.8%44.3%+4.5-0.4 … +9.40.0730.9022,262
Sarah vs Lion51.6%47.1%+4.5-1.1 … +10.00.1170.9021,854
Brad vs Jean53.4%49.0%+4.4-0.7 … +9.50.0880.9022,135
Jeffry vs Lei Fei56.8%52.4%+4.4-1.3 … +10.10.1330.9051,652
Brad vs Aoi45.6%41.3%+4.3-1.5 … +10.00.1440.9051,625
Jeffry vs Lion51.3%47.1%+4.2-1.0 … +9.40.1110.9022,073
Jean vs Lion48.9%45.1%+3.8-1.5 … +8.90.1590.9052,029
Aoi vs Shun50.5%46.9%+3.6-2.6 … +9.80.2520.9051,500
Sarah vs Lau50.9%47.4%+3.6-1.8 … +8.90.1960.9051,942
Jacky vs Lau50.0%46.4%+3.5-0.3 … +7.40.0710.9023,842
Wolf vs Goh50.0%46.4%+3.5-1.5 … +8.50.1660.9052,251

Every stage type

How much of the data each stage type is
Walls226,247
No walls112,546
Not recorded18,703
Matches counted63,742
Stage types10
Most affectedGoh
Widest swing12.0 pts
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/10/18

Every character, every stage

Change from that character's own win rate, in points
Goh-1.1-1.9-0.3+2.7+3.8-0.9-8.0-4.4+1.4+4.0
Jeffry+0.8-0.8+4.4-4.1+3.8-5.9+0.7-3.5+2.5+0.1
Aoi-5.4+1.5+4.8+1.0-2.7+0.8-0.5-0.2-0.7-1.9
Taka-2.5-0.8+2.6-1.3-1.2+2.3+4.2+5.7-3.9-3.2
Jean+1.9+0.3-0.4-0.6-2.3+5.2-6.4-3.5+4.0+1.2
Eileen+1.7+5.1-3.1+0.6-2.4-1.7+0.2-2.2+0.7+0.3
Vanessa-0.7-1.1-1.3+0.6-0.3+3.5+3.0-4.1+2.6-1.2
Sarah+1.8+0.7+2.9+1.8-1.6-2.5-0.5+3.8-3.6-2.5
El Blaze-0.3-1.2-1.6-2.8+4.5-2.5+1.4-2.3+1.2+3.3
Lion-0.9-0.4-2.8+1.8+0.0-0.2-1.8-0.8+0.8+4.3
Kage-1.7+1.7+0.7-2.7+2.2-2.4+3.8+2.1+2.2-2.5
Lei Fei+2.9+1.2+2.5+0.6-2.5+2.3-1.9-1.3-0.9-3.2
Lau+1.9+1.4+0.6-0.6-1.7+0.6-1.4+3.3-1.1-2.6
Wolf+2.5-1.2-1.0+1.4-0.5+1.4-3.3-2.6-0.9+0.2
Shun-0.8-2.6-1.6+2.5+3.0-2.7-0.8+0.8+1.1+0.3
Pai-1.9-2.0+0.2-0.9-0.5+3.1-0.1+0.4-0.5+0.9
Jacky-2.0-1.1-0.9+1.1+0.0+2.0+2.7+0.0-1.9+2.0
Akira+2.1-0.0+1.1+0.3-2.3-1.0+0.4+1.3-0.7-1.0
Brad+0.9+1.2-2.3-1.4+1.5+0.8+1.7+0.2-1.3+1.2
Dural+3.0-0.7-4.0+1.3+2.2-6.8-37.9+3.7+10.7+6.6
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

The matchups the stage decides

One matchup on one stage, against the same matchup everywhere
Sarah vs ShunSingle wall47.9%75.0%+27.136
Brad vs JeffryOctagon49.8%76.0%+26.225
Sarah vs El BlazeFull fence42.0%64.5%+22.531
Jacky vs WolfBreakable half fence48.7%71.0%+22.331
Shun vs SarahLow fence52.1%74.3%+22.235
Jean vs JackySingle wall47.6%69.4%+21.836
Lei Fei vs ShunRectangle53.3%75.0%+21.732
Lei Fei vs BradHalf fence55.9%77.1%+21.235
Aoi vs El BlazeHalf fence54.9%76.0%+21.125
Jean vs AkiraRectangle50.2%71.0%+20.831
Pai vs Lei FeiOpen44.9%65.6%+20.732
Kage vs JeffryBreakable full fence52.5%73.1%+20.626
Lion vs Lei FeiOctagon44.2%64.6%+20.448
Eileen vs JackyFence and open47.2%66.7%+19.527
Jeffry vs BradHalf fence50.2%69.2%+19.126
El Blaze vs SarahSingle wall58.0%76.9%+18.926
Lau vs TakaLow fence53.7%72.5%+18.840
Shun vs TakaFull fence44.4%63.0%+18.527
Lau vs EileenHalf fence48.4%66.7%+18.227
Lion vs El BlazeSingle wall50.0%68.2%+18.244
Kage vs GohOctagon53.7%71.9%+18.132
Jean vs JackyOctagon47.6%65.5%+17.929
Sarah vs ShunHalf fence47.9%65.5%+17.629
El Blaze vs JackyHalf fence55.8%73.3%+17.560

Every stage type

How much of the data each stage type is
Full fence6,411
Breakable full fence6,440
Half fence6,477
Breakable half fence6,337
Low fence6,287
Single wall6,372
Fence and open3,116
Octagon6,476
Rectangle6,400
Open6,273
Not recorded3,153
Matches counted63,742
Stage groups2
Most affected—
Widest walls gap—
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/10/18

Is any of this chance?

The whole cut, tested at once
Walled stages dealt evenly across the rosterχ²=17.0 on 19 df, p=0.592
Matches sharing one stage drawabout 2.0, so a match is not an independent draw
Allowance made for thatevery interval and p-value here widened by ×1.15
Characters whose gap holds up0 of 20 — chance alone would give about 1.0
Matchups whose gap holds up0 of 118 — chance alone would give about 5.9
The roster taken togetherχ²=157.0 on 118 df, p=0.010

Every character, tested

The gap, the range it could be, and the odds of it being nothing
Sarah47.4%44.0%+3.4+0.1 … +6.70.0430.3295,18324
Lau55.2%53.1%+2.1-0.1 … +4.40.0650.32911,00463
Dural51.8%49.7%+2.1-8.5 … +12.80.6960.82949313
Akira52.6%50.5%+2.1-0.3 … +4.50.0820.32910,52170
Lei Fei55.4%53.5%+1.9-1.3 … +5.10.2370.5625,64331
Eileen51.7%50.0%+1.6-2.3 … +5.60.4150.6383,77137
Aoi49.0%47.5%+1.5-2.5 … +5.50.4550.6503,64024
Kage50.0%48.7%+1.3-1.2 … +3.90.3030.5628,82471
Taka53.3%52.6%+0.6-3.9 … +5.20.7810.8682,68929
Jeffry46.5%46.1%+0.4-3.7 … +4.40.8510.8683,42748
Shun48.0%48.2%-0.3-3.3 … +2.80.8680.8686,32534
Wolf47.6%48.3%-0.7-4.5 … +3.00.7050.8294,06335
Jean46.4%47.5%-1.1-5.7 … +3.50.6400.8292,65445
Vanessa44.4%45.8%-1.4-4.4 … +1.50.3420.5706,72931
Brad48.6%50.2%-1.6-4.6 … +1.40.3090.5626,25147
Lion48.7%50.3%-1.6-4.2 … +0.90.1990.5629,12262
Pai47.5%49.4%-1.9-5.3 … +1.40.2610.5625,11238
Jacky50.2%52.4%-2.2-4.6 … +0.20.0710.32910,20084
El Blaze51.9%54.9%-3.0-6.2 … +0.20.0700.3295,45842
Goh47.0%50.1%-3.1-7.0 … +0.80.1200.4003,83721
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Every character, every stage

Change from that character's own win rate, in points
Sarah+1.2-2.2
Lau+0.9-1.2
Dural+2.2+0.1
Akira+0.7-1.4
Lei Fei+0.8-1.1
Eileen+0.5-1.2
Aoi+0.3-1.2
Kage+0.4-0.9
Taka-0.1-0.7
Jeffry-0.1-0.5
Shun-0.1+0.2
Wolf-0.3+0.4
Jean+0.2+1.3
Vanessa-0.7+0.7
Brad-0.4+1.1
Lion-0.4+1.3
Pai-0.8+1.1
Jacky-0.8+1.4
El Blaze-1.2+1.9
Goh-0.7+2.4
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

The widest matchup gaps

One matchup behind walls against the same matchup in the open, widest first — none of them survives correction
Jeffry vs Shun51.4%32.4%+19.0+2.0 … +34.30.0280.668181
Sarah vs El Blaze48.8%32.5%+16.3+3.8 … +27.90.0110.437339
Pai vs Brad61.6%45.3%+16.3-0.7 … +32.30.0600.769202
Sarah vs Jeffry49.6%34.6%+15.0-1.2 … +29.90.0700.769201
Sarah vs Jacky57.8%43.8%+14.0+3.6 … +24.10.0080.437512
Wolf vs Vanessa56.9%43.0%+13.9-1.9 … +28.90.0850.769223
Aoi vs Jacky54.8%41.2%+13.6-1.0 … +27.30.0690.769319
Jacky vs Jean56.2%42.7%+13.5-1.7 … +27.90.0820.769235
Lau vs Goh60.9%47.7%+13.2+2.2 … +23.90.0180.537483
Taka vs Lau49.1%36.1%+13.0-1.4 … +26.50.0770.769260
Kage vs Jeffry56.2%44.6%+11.7-2.8 … +25.60.1150.860268
Lei Fei vs Shun54.9%44.3%+10.6-3.5 … +24.10.1410.860321
Pai vs Aoi58.1%47.5%+10.6-3.4 … +24.10.1390.860280
Goh vs Lion49.0%39.0%+10.1-3.9 … +23.20.1560.860303
Akira vs Vanessa59.0%49.0%+10.0+0.6 … +19.30.0370.728678
Lei Fei vs El Blaze54.2%44.2%+9.9-3.5 … +22.90.1490.860320
Jacky vs Wolf52.9%43.1%+9.8-1.7 … +20.90.0970.814404
Kage vs Goh57.4%47.9%+9.5-3.6 … +22.30.1570.860314
Lei Fei vs Pai58.9%49.5%+9.4-4.1 … +22.60.1750.860325
Jacky vs Taka52.9%43.7%+9.2-8.1 … +25.80.2990.970175
Lau vs Jacky55.4%46.3%+9.2+2.1 … +16.10.0110.4371,175
Jeffry vs Pai56.1%47.1%+9.1-8.6 … +26.10.3190.970166
Kage vs Taka50.6%42.6%+8.0-5.5 … +21.00.2480.970293
Sarah vs Vanessa58.9%51.0%+7.8-5.5 … +21.10.2540.970344

Every stage type

How much of the data each stage type is
Walls38,541
No walls18,932
Not recorded3,153