Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · All ranks
First strike
Whoever lands the first hit of a round wins it a little more often than not. Compared inside the same match, so the better player of the two cannot take the credit, the edge is about the same size.
A round counts once whoever was pulled for it. Rounds where nothing landed, or both hits landed on the same frame, have no first strike and are left out.
The same two players, the same match
How much more often a player wins the rounds they struck first than the rounds they were struck first, in points| All ranks | 53.0% | +5.4 | +5.3 – +5.5 | < 0.0001 | 847,773 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ranks 21–29 | 53.0% | +5.6 | +5.4 – +5.8 | < 0.0001 | 298,296 |
| Ranks 30–39 | 52.9% | +5.2 | +5.1 – +5.4 | < 0.0001 | 297,652 |
| Ranks 40–46 | 53.3% | +4.8 | +4.3 – +5.2 | < 0.0001 | 50,443 |
The plain rate flatters the hit: the better player of a pair both strikes first more often and wins more often. Comparing each match only with itself cancels who is better, the characters and the ring (a Mantel-Haenszel risk difference with Sato's variance). Matches where one player struck first in every round compare nothing and sit out.
Player skill and the first strike
Bands of how likely the higher-Elo player was to win the match, from both players' Elo going inSkill barely decides who lands the first strike. Over 3,596,340 rounds the higher-rated player struck first 50.8% of the time: 50.1% in near-even matches and still only 53.3% in the biggest mismatches. Landing it is worth about +3.0 points of round win rate to the underdog, and an underdog who lands round one's first strike wins the match +2.9 points more often than one who is struck first.
Who lands it
| 50–55% | 50.1% | 50.0–50.2% | 873,771 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55–60% | 50.4% | 50.3–50.5% | 798,665 |
| 60–65% | 50.5% | 50.4–50.7% | 664,321 |
| 65–70% | 51.1% | 51.0–51.3% | 492,453 |
| 70–80% | 51.4% | 51.2–51.5% | 525,330 |
| 80–100% | 53.3% | 53.1–53.5% | 241,800 |
| All matches | 50.8% | 50.7–50.8% | 3,596,340 |
What it is worth to the underdog
| 50–55% | 49.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 | 49.5% | 46.7% | 47.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55–60% | 46.8% | 49.8% | +3.0 | 45.4% | 42.9% | 42.6% |
| 60–65% | 44.5% | 47.4% | +2.9 | 41.3% | 38.6% | 37.6% |
| 65–70% | 42.4% | 45.1% | +2.7 | 37.1% | 35.0% | 32.6% |
| 70–80% | 39.0% | 41.9% | +2.9 | 31.6% | 29.1% | 25.8% |
| 80–100% | 29.5% | 33.0% | +3.5 | 18.8% | 15.6% | 13.5% |
| All matches | 44.0% | 47.0% | +3.0 | 40.7% | 37.8% | 37.0% |
Each match is read with both players' Elo before it was played, at the settings the Elo list uses, so no match rates itself; matches where either player had played fewer than 30 are left out, because that rating is still settling. Elo gives the underdog a little less than they win here whoever struck first, so compare the two round-one columns with each other rather than each with Elo. This shows the first strike and the result go together once skill is held; it cannot say the hit caused the win.
Round by round
The first striker's win rate in each round of a match| 1 | 53.1% | 53.0–53.2% | 554,620 | 1,044,435 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 52.9% | 52.8–53.0% | 550,126 | 1,039,101 |
| 3 | 53.2% | 53.1–53.3% | 550,700 | 1,035,595 |
| 4 | 53.0% | 52.9–53.1% | 383,849 | 724,292 |
| 5+ | 52.9% | 52.7–53.1% | 182,772 | 345,427 |
By character
How often each lands the first hit, and what it is worth| Akira | 52.6% | 52.2% | 46.2% | 967,727 | Rimon Chouchu (75,474) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aoi | 50.0% | 51.9% | 45.6% | 448,931 | Datotsu (30,120) |
| Brad | 48.5% | 53.2% | 47.0% | 357,062 | Sit Jab (25,052) |
| Dural | 49.0% | 55.3% | 49.3% | 73,218 | Jab (8,339) |
| Eileen | 50.1% | 53.9% | 47.3% | 156,117 | Shusshou (19,204) |
| El Blaze | 48.8% | 53.9% | 47.8% | 306,910 | Jab (15,626) |
| Goh | 51.4% | 52.6% | 46.2% | 433,643 | Shouda (35,171) |
| Jacky | 47.2% | 53.3% | 47.0% | 768,052 | Squat Straight (52,906) |
| Jean | 51.4% | 53.6% | 47.1% | 378,661 | Maeken (29,618) |
| Jeffry | 53.9% | 53.7% | 47.1% | 468,660 | Straight Knuckle (38,380) |
| Kage | 50.9% | 53.5% | 47.4% | 448,667 | Danken (30,418) |
| Lau | 48.0% | 53.8% | 48.2% | 440,702 | Chusui (26,689) |
| Lei Fei | 50.9% | 53.3% | 47.4% | 284,852 | Chugeki (21,815) |
| Lion | 52.4% | 54.1% | 47.9% | 409,690 | Tousui (34,424) |
| Pai | 52.7% | 52.5% | 46.6% | 465,503 | Chuken (43,053) |
| Sarah | 53.9% | 52.9% | 45.9% | 492,170 | Straight Lead (31,231) |
| Shun | 52.8% | 52.0% | 46.2% | 452,082 | Haisenchu (41,341) |
| Taka | 52.2% | 54.6% | 47.8% | 152,315 | Tsuppari (14,142) |
| Vanessa | 24.3% | 54.1% | 48.6% | 305,986 | Jab (18,505) |
| Wolf | 50.0% | 52.5% | 46.6% | 566,752 | Low Hammer (46,567) |
Who picks a character is not random, so a character's first-strike rate is as much its players as its frames. Rates on fewer than 100 rounds are not shown.
The round after
How profiled players opened the next round, after striking first or being struck first (6,225,493 rounds)Did they open the same way again?
| Same opener again | 6.0% (185,731) | 5.9% (183,058) |
|---|---|---|
| A different opener | 94.0% (2,926,709) | 94.1% (2,929,995) |
This difference holds up: p = < 0.0001, q = < 0.0001 after correcting for both questions.
What did they do first?
| Attack | 38.5% (1,197,451) | 38.2% (1,188,940) |
|---|---|---|
| Move in | 12.6% (392,859) | 12.6% (391,193) |
| Wait or guard | 12.7% (396,177) | 13.2% (411,411) |
| Back off | 26.8% (834,081) | 26.0% (808,369) |
| Evade | 9.4% (291,872) | 10.1% (313,140) |
This difference holds up: p = < 0.0001, q = < 0.0001 after correcting for both questions.
Tested within each round number and clustered by match, as the opener tells are. Each player's own version of this question is a tell on their profile.
Who struck first is read from the replay's inputs. Where the two players stood is modelled from their movement rather than recorded, so a single round's verdict can be wrong; the counts over many rounds are the reliable use.
The character figures are associations, not a measure of the character: who plays a character is not random.