Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Rank 30–46

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Rank bandMid and high combined372,061 matchesMid ranks318,500 matchesHigh ranks53,561 matches

StagesBy shape10 typesWalls or no walls2 groups

6.5

Widest swing

V1.10
STAGE EFFECTS

~

372,061 matches · 2,277 players

2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Matches counted372,061

Stage types10

Most affectedTaka

Widest swing6.5 pts

Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Who the stage matters to

Best stage against worst, in points

Every character, every stage

Change from that character's own win rate, in points

Character	Full	Break. full	Half	Break. half	Low	Wall	Mixed	Oct	Rect	Open
Taka	-3.0	-0.1	-0.5	+0.1	+3.2	+3.5	+3.1	-1.9	-1.1	-1.7
Vanessa	+1.4	-0.1	-0.2	-2.0	+2.3	+1.0	+1.4	-2.4	+0.6	-1.0
Sarah	+0.3	+0.3	+0.6	+1.4	-1.2	-0.4	+0.3	+1.7	-2.3	-0.1
Pai	-0.1	+0.6	+0.6	+0.7	-0.8	-1.0	-2.3	+1.2	+0.4	-0.1
Jeffry	+0.8	+0.6	-0.6	-0.3	+0.0	-1.1	+0.7	+0.3	+1.8	-1.6
Lion	-0.4	-1.3	-0.6	-0.1	-0.2	+2.1	-1.1	-0.2	-0.3	+1.7
Lau	+0.3	+1.7	-0.1	-0.8	-1.6	+0.1	+0.7	+0.2	+0.4	+0.1
Goh	-0.7	-0.6	-0.6	-0.2	+0.2	+0.4	+0.5	-1.0	+0.1	+1.8
El Blaze	-0.2	+0.3	-1.2	-0.9	-0.1	+1.5	+0.7	-0.1	+1.2	+0.7
Shun	-0.3	-1.6	-0.5	+0.5	+1.1	+0.0	+0.6	+0.9	-1.1	-0.2
Kage	-0.2	-0.1	+0.5	+0.4	+0.7	+0.1	+1.8	-0.2	-0.8	-0.9
Aoi	-1.2	-0.3	-0.7	-0.3	-1.0	-0.5	+0.4	+0.3	+0.9	+1.5
Jacky	+0.1	-0.3	+1.5	+0.9	+0.9	-1.1	-0.8	+0.7	-0.7	-1.0
Brad	-0.2	-0.8	-1.3	+0.6	-0.7	+0.9	+0.8	+1.2	-0.6	+0.0
Wolf	-0.1	+0.6	-0.1	-1.2	+0.8	-0.7	-1.1	-0.9	+0.3	+0.8
Akira	+0.5	+0.6	+0.7	-0.5	-1.0	-0.7	-0.7	+0.2	+0.8	+0.3
Jean	+0.9	-0.8	+0.6	+0.6	-0.3	-0.1	-0.8	-0.4	-0.6	-0.0
Lei Fei	-0.4	-0.2	+0.1	+0.2	+0.3	-0.2	-0.5	-0.7	+0.8	-0.7
Eileen	-0.4	+2.7	-2.1	-0.5	+0.9	+0.3	-1.4	-3.0	+0.0	+1.8
Dural	+1.1	+0.1	+0.9	+0.5	+0.1	-0.8	-3.0	+0.5	+1.6	-2.6

Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

The matchups the stage decides

One matchup on one stage, against the same matchup everywhere

Matchup	Stage	Overall	On this stage	Change	Matches
Lau vs Aoi	Breakable full fence	52.0%	65.2%	+13.2	204
Shun vs Lei Fei	Full fence	50.0%	60.5%	+10.5	162
Wolf vs Lau	Low fence	47.7%	58.2%	+10.4	287
Jeffry vs Aoi	Rectangle	53.7%	63.4%	+9.7	183
Aoi vs Shun	Full fence	49.0%	58.1%	+9.1	179
Jean vs Kage	Breakable full fence	49.2%	58.3%	+9.1	254
Wolf vs Sarah	Single wall	47.9%	56.5%	+8.6	209
Lei Fei vs Shun	Rectangle	50.0%	58.5%	+8.5	212
Shun vs Wolf	Open	51.5%	59.9%	+8.3	177
Vanessa vs Lau	Rectangle	45.7%	54.0%	+8.3	187
Brad vs Jeffry	Breakable half fence	51.7%	60.0%	+8.3	230
Goh vs Brad	Breakable half fence	49.1%	57.3%	+8.2	192
Jean vs Lau	Full fence	45.7%	53.8%	+8.1	277
Kage vs Lei Fei	Breakable full fence	51.8%	59.9%	+8.1	162
Pai vs Sarah	Rectangle	51.4%	59.4%	+8.0	207
Akira vs Aoi	Full fence	50.2%	58.1%	+7.8	353
Wolf vs Jean	Open	46.4%	54.2%	+7.8	249
Brad vs Vanessa	Open	52.2%	59.9%	+7.7	177
Lei Fei vs Lion	Breakable half fence	49.3%	56.9%	+7.6	188
Lau vs Akira	Fence and open	51.8%	59.3%	+7.5	258
Shun vs Lion	Full fence	46.7%	54.1%	+7.5	205
Sarah vs Pai	Single wall	48.6%	56.1%	+7.5	189
Aoi vs Jeffry	Open	46.3%	53.7%	+7.3	190
Pai vs Shun	Open	50.6%	57.9%	+7.3	164

Every stage type

How much of the data each stage type is

Stage	Matches	Share
Full fence	37,871	10.18%
Breakable full fence	37,371	10.04%
Half fence	36,946	9.93%
Breakable half fence	37,189	10.00%
Low fence	36,959	9.93%
Single wall	36,906	9.92%
Fence and open	18,404	4.95%
Octagon	37,605	10.11%
Rectangle	37,374	10.05%
Open	37,037	9.95%
Not recorded	18,399	4.95%

Two-proportion z, Benjamini–Hochberg at 5% FDR

—

Widest walls gap

V1.10
STAGE EFFECTS
Walls or no walls

~

372,061 matches · 2,277 players

2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Matches counted372,061

Stage groups2

Most affected—

Widest walls gap—

Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Who the walls suit

Walled stages against open ones, in points

Better in the openBetter behind wallsWithin chance95% interval

Is any of this chance?

The whole cut, tested at once

Walled stages dealt evenly across the rosterχ²=12.9 on 19 df, p=0.845

Matches sharing one stage drawabout 2.0, so a match is not an independent draw

Allowance made for thatevery interval and p-value here widened by ×1.12

Characters whose gap holds up0 of 20 — chance alone would give about 1.0

Matchups whose gap holds up0 of 128 — chance alone would give about 6.4

The roster taken togetherχ²=159.7 on 128 df, p=0.030

Every character, tested

The gap, the range it could be, and the odds of it being nothing

Character	Behind walls	In the open	Gap	95% interval	p	q (corrected)	Matches	Players
Dural	51.0%	49.2%	+1.8	-0.9 … +4.6	0.197	0.328	6,943	82
Jeffry	51.1%	49.8%	+1.3	+0.1 … +2.5	0.029	0.155	37,577	368
Pai	50.2%	49.1%	+1.2	-0.1 … +2.5	0.082	0.235	30,774	281
Sarah	50.0%	49.1%	+0.9	-0.4 … +2.1	0.169	0.318	34,608	250
Akira	49.6%	48.8%	+0.8	-0.1 … +1.7	0.077	0.235	66,769	448
Lau	51.8%	51.0%	+0.8	-0.3 … +1.9	0.175	0.318	42,360	333
Jacky	49.7%	48.9%	+0.8	-0.2 … +1.7	0.109	0.273	62,120	494
Lei Fei	50.0%	49.8%	+0.2	-1.2 … +1.6	0.801	0.843	27,421	199
Jean	49.3%	49.2%	+0.2	-1.1 … +1.4	0.797	0.843	34,740	300
Kage	51.4%	51.4%	+0.0	-1.1 … +1.1	0.997	0.997	43,185	392
Aoi	49.6%	49.9%	-0.2	-1.6 … +1.2	0.752	0.843	27,699	197
Brad	50.3%	50.5%	-0.2	-1.5 … +1.0	0.691	0.843	34,527	278
Wolf	48.0%	48.5%	-0.5	-1.7 … +0.7	0.385	0.513	38,590	321
Shun	48.7%	49.3%	-0.7	-1.9 … +0.6	0.306	0.437	34,024	245
El Blaze	51.5%	52.4%	-0.9	-2.3 … +0.6	0.244	0.375	25,700	248
Vanessa	48.2%	49.5%	-1.3	-2.7 … +0.1	0.080	0.235	26,361	202
Goh	48.3%	49.6%	-1.3	-2.6 … -0.1	0.031	0.155	36,511	281
Eileen	52.1%	53.6%	-1.5	-3.7 … +0.7	0.174	0.318	11,459	168
Lion	50.4%	52.1%	-1.7	-2.9 … -0.5	0.006	0.118	36,872	321
Taka	52.5%	55.2%	-2.7	-4.8 … -0.6	0.012	0.118	12,276	182

How significance is decided

• Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
• The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
• q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
• Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
• Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Every character, every stage

Change from that character's own win rate, in points

Character	Walls	No walls
Dural	+0.8	-1.1
Jeffry	+0.4	-0.9
Pai	+0.6	-0.6
Sarah	+0.3	-0.6
Akira	+0.4	-0.4
Lau	+0.3	-0.5
Jacky	+0.3	-0.4
Lei Fei	-0.0	-0.2
Jean	+0.0	-0.1
Kage	-0.1	-0.1
Aoi	-0.2	+0.0
Brad	-0.1	+0.1
Wolf	-0.2	+0.3
Shun	-0.3	+0.3
El Blaze	-0.2	+0.7
Vanessa	-0.5	+0.8
Goh	-0.5	+0.8
Eileen	-0.5	+1.0
Lion	-0.5	+1.2
Taka	-1.1	+1.6

Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

The widest matchup gaps

One matchup behind walls against the same matchup in the open, widest first — none of them survives correction

Matchup	Behind walls	In the open	Gap	95% interval	p	q (corrected)	Matches
Jeffry vs Shun	51.7%	45.2%	+6.5	+1.6 … +11.4	0.010	0.628	2,163
Jacky vs Vanessa	52.3%	46.0%	+6.3	+1.7 … +10.8	0.007	0.628	2,735
Pai vs Sarah	52.9%	46.6%	+6.3	+0.2 … +12.3	0.043	0.856	1,493
Sarah vs Vanessa	53.9%	47.9%	+6.0	-0.0 … +12.0	0.051	0.856	1,467
Shun vs Lion	48.2%	42.4%	+5.8	+0.7 … +10.9	0.027	0.856	2,009
Lei Fei vs Lion	51.5%	45.7%	+5.8	-0.1 … +11.6	0.055	0.856	1,592
Aoi vs Lion	47.0%	41.7%	+5.3	-0.8 … +11.3	0.087	0.856	1,532
El Blaze vs Lion	51.7%	46.4%	+5.3	-1.0 … +11.6	0.101	0.856	1,341
Shun vs El Blaze	51.5%	46.6%	+4.8	-1.5 … +11.0	0.133	0.856	1,412
Lau vs Aoi	53.5%	48.8%	+4.7	-0.6 … +10.0	0.081	0.856	1,899
Wolf vs Goh	50.9%	46.2%	+4.7	-0.3 … +9.7	0.068	0.856	2,085
Shun vs Vanessa	51.9%	47.5%	+4.5	-1.7 … +10.6	0.156	0.856	1,402
Sarah vs Wolf	53.2%	48.7%	+4.5	-0.6 … +9.5	0.082	0.856	2,178
Kage vs Vanessa	53.9%	49.4%	+4.5	-1.0 … +9.9	0.111	0.856	1,745
Jeffry vs Lei Fei	56.6%	52.2%	+4.4	-1.3 … +10.1	0.132	0.856	1,580
Brad vs Aoi	47.5%	43.2%	+4.3	-1.4 … +9.9	0.142	0.856	1,597
Sarah vs Kage	48.8%	44.5%	+4.3	-0.6 … +9.1	0.087	0.856	2,282
Kage vs Lion	51.0%	46.8%	+4.2	-0.2 … +8.6	0.060	0.856	2,721
Lau vs Wolf	53.6%	49.4%	+4.2	-0.5 … +8.9	0.081	0.856	2,399
Jacky vs Taka	46.8%	42.6%	+4.1	-2.4 … +10.6	0.216	0.856	1,204
Lei Fei vs Wolf	52.4%	48.5%	+4.0	-1.8 … +9.7	0.174	0.856	1,621
Brad vs Jean	52.7%	49.0%	+3.7	-1.6 … +8.9	0.172	0.856	1,904
Aoi vs Shun	50.4%	46.7%	+3.7	-2.4 … +9.7	0.238	0.856	1,491
Pai vs Goh	52.7%	49.1%	+3.7	-1.9 … +9.2	0.197	0.856	1,723

Every stage type

How much of the data each stage type is

Stage	Matches	Share
Walls	224,356	60.30%
No walls	110,902	29.81%
Not recorded	18,399	4.95%

StagesBy shape10 typesWalls or no walls2 groups

7.7

Widest swing

V1.10
STAGE EFFECTS
Mid ranks

~

318,500 matches · 2,216 players

2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Matches counted318,500

Stage types10

Most affectedTaka

Widest swing7.7 pts

Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Who the stage matters to

Best stage against worst, in points

Every character, every stage

Change from that character's own win rate, in points

Character	Full	Break. full	Half	Break. half	Low	Wall	Mixed	Oct	Rect	Open
Taka	-2.9	-0.2	-0.9	+0.7	+4.0	+3.5	+2.3	-3.7	-0.0	-1.1
Vanessa	+2.1	+0.1	+0.2	-2.5	+3.1	+0.5	+0.6	-1.9	+0.1	-1.2
Lion	-0.3	-1.4	-0.0	-0.3	+0.0	+2.8	-0.9	-0.6	-0.7	+1.1
El Blaze	+0.1	+0.4	-1.6	-0.4	-1.1	+2.4	+0.4	+0.5	+1.1	+0.2
Jacky	+0.5	-0.2	+1.9	+1.0	+0.8	-1.9	-1.4	+0.6	-0.4	-1.3
Sarah	-0.3	+0.6	+0.1	+1.3	-0.9	-0.0	+0.3	+1.4	-2.2	+0.4
Pai	+0.2	+0.9	+0.7	+0.8	-0.8	-1.6	-2.2	+1.2	+0.3	-0.0
Jeffry	+0.8	+0.7	-1.0	+0.1	-0.3	-0.6	+0.5	+0.7	+1.6	-1.8
Lau	-0.0	+1.7	-0.4	-1.1	-1.4	-0.1	+1.0	-0.7	+1.1	+0.7
Kage	+0.0	-0.4	+0.4	+1.2	+0.5	+0.6	+1.4	-0.6	-1.5	-0.7
Aoi	-0.9	-0.6	-1.1	-0.3	-1.1	-0.5	+0.7	+0.1	+1.1	+1.6
Brad	-0.5	-0.8	-1.0	+0.7	-1.0	+0.9	+0.7	+1.5	-0.3	-0.4
Shun	-0.4	-1.3	-0.2	+0.1	+0.6	+0.7	+0.9	+0.8	-1.5	-0.4
Wolf	-0.3	+0.7	-0.0	-1.4	+1.1	-1.0	-0.6	-0.7	+0.5	+0.7
Goh	-0.8	-0.5	-0.7	-0.4	+0.0	+0.5	+1.4	-0.5	-0.1	+1.6
Akira	+0.6	+0.6	+0.5	-0.8	-0.8	-0.6	-1.0	+0.2	+1.0	+0.5
Lei Fei	-1.0	-0.4	-0.2	+0.3	+0.4	-0.6	+0.3	-0.8	+0.8	+0.0
Jean	+0.7	-0.9	+0.7	+0.7	-0.1	-0.5	-0.6	-0.2	-0.9	+0.1
Dural	+1.0	+0.2	+1.3	+0.2	+0.0	-0.2	-1.5	+0.2	+0.9	-3.1
Eileen	-1.1	+1.5	-1.9	-1.3	+1.8	+1.5	-2.0	-2.6	+0.0	+1.9

Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

The matchups the stage decides

One matchup on one stage, against the same matchup everywhere

Matchup	Stage	Overall	On this stage	Change	Matches
Lau vs Aoi	Breakable full fence	50.2%	65.2%	+15.0	161
Lion vs Shun	Low fence	54.9%	67.1%	+12.2	155
Wolf vs Lau	Low fence	47.6%	57.6%	+10.0	255
Brad vs Lion	Octagon	49.8%	59.6%	+9.8	166
Kage vs Pai	Single wall	50.0%	59.6%	+9.7	166
Aoi vs Shun	Full fence	49.0%	58.3%	+9.3	163
Wolf vs Sarah	Single wall	47.7%	57.0%	+9.3	186
Jeffry vs Aoi	Rectangle	54.0%	63.2%	+9.2	174
Jean vs Kage	Breakable full fence	48.9%	58.1%	+9.2	241
Vanessa vs Jacky	Low fence	51.4%	60.4%	+9.0	245
Jeffry vs Lei Fei	Breakable full fence	55.8%	64.5%	+8.7	152
Brad vs Jeffry	Breakable half fence	52.0%	60.6%	+8.6	203
Akira vs Aoi	Full fence	50.5%	59.0%	+8.5	322
Vanessa vs Kage	Low fence	49.0%	57.5%	+8.5	146
Brad vs Akira	Breakable half fence	50.2%	58.6%	+8.4	348
Lau vs Jacky	Single wall	50.9%	59.3%	+8.4	356
Shun vs Wolf	Open	50.7%	59.0%	+8.3	161
Akira vs Pai	Fence and open	51.4%	59.4%	+8.1	143
Pai vs Sarah	Rectangle	51.0%	59.0%	+8.0	200
Aoi vs Lau	Breakable half fence	49.8%	57.8%	+8.0	147
Jacky vs El Blaze	Low fence	46.6%	54.5%	+8.0	242
Kage vs Vanessa	Half fence	51.0%	58.9%	+7.9	151
Aoi vs Jeffry	Open	46.0%	53.9%	+7.9	180
Sarah vs Pai	Single wall	49.0%	56.9%	+7.9	167

Every stage type

How much of the data each stage type is

Stage	Matches	Share
Full fence	32,531	10.21%
Breakable full fence	31,993	10.04%
Half fence	31,534	9.90%
Breakable half fence	31,798	9.98%
Low fence	31,706	9.95%
Single wall	31,515	9.89%
Fence and open	15,745	4.94%
Octagon	32,209	10.11%
Rectangle	31,893	10.01%
Open	31,765	9.97%
Not recorded	15,811	4.96%

Two-proportion z, Benjamini–Hochberg at 5% FDR

—

Widest walls gap

V1.10
STAGE EFFECTS
Mid ranks · Walls or no walls

~

318,500 matches · 2,216 players

2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Matches counted318,500

Stage groups2

Most affected—

Widest walls gap—

Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Who the walls suit

Walled stages against open ones, in points

Better in the openBetter behind wallsWithin chance95% interval

Is any of this chance?

The whole cut, tested at once

Walled stages dealt evenly across the rosterχ²=12.3 on 19 df, p=0.871

Matches sharing one stage drawabout 1.9, so a match is not an independent draw

Allowance made for thatevery interval and p-value here widened by ×1.12

Characters whose gap holds up0 of 20 — chance alone would give about 1.0

Matchups whose gap holds up0 of 131 — chance alone would give about 6.6

The roster taken togetherχ²=162.9 on 131 df, p=0.031

Every character, tested

The gap, the range it could be, and the odds of it being nothing

Character	Behind walls	In the open	Gap	95% interval	p	q (corrected)	Matches	Players
Dural	51.0%	49.3%	+1.7	-1.2 … +4.5	0.257	0.505	6,471	77
Pai	50.6%	49.1%	+1.5	+0.1 … +2.9	0.040	0.142	26,851	263
Jeffry	51.5%	50.1%	+1.4	+0.1 … +2.6	0.029	0.142	34,549	354
Jacky	49.6%	48.3%	+1.3	+0.3 … +2.3	0.009	0.058	53,734	457
Akira	49.3%	48.6%	+0.7	-0.3 … +1.6	0.171	0.380	58,156	422
Sarah	50.4%	50.1%	+0.3	-1.0 … +1.7	0.613	0.799	30,259	238
Lau	50.9%	50.6%	+0.3	-0.9 … +1.6	0.601	0.799	33,025	308
Jean	49.5%	49.3%	+0.2	-1.1 … +1.5	0.757	0.841	32,516	276
Brad	50.5%	50.5%	+0.1	-1.3 … +1.4	0.900	0.900	29,359	253
Lei Fei	49.0%	49.1%	-0.1	-1.7 … +1.4	0.851	0.896	22,767	185
Kage	51.7%	52.0%	-0.3	-1.5 … +0.9	0.646	0.799	35,592	356
Aoi	49.6%	49.9%	-0.3	-1.8 … +1.2	0.679	0.799	24,874	187
Wolf	48.0%	48.4%	-0.5	-1.7 … +0.8	0.443	0.738	35,150	301
El Blaze	51.3%	51.8%	-0.5	-2.1 … +1.1	0.547	0.799	20,839	231
Shun	48.8%	49.5%	-0.8	-2.1 … +0.6	0.278	0.505	28,406	233
Vanessa	49.5%	50.7%	-1.2	-2.8 … +0.4	0.153	0.380	20,677	187
Goh	48.4%	49.6%	-1.2	-2.5 … +0.1	0.068	0.194	33,145	272
Lion	50.9%	52.7%	-1.9	-3.2 … -0.5	0.006	0.058	29,361	296
Eileen	52.2%	54.9%	-2.6	-5.2 … -0.1	0.043	0.142	8,278	151
Taka	52.2%	55.4%	-3.2	-5.5 … -0.9	0.007	0.058	9,879	168

How significance is decided

• Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
• The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
• q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
• Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
• Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Every character, every stage

Change from that character's own win rate, in points

Character	Walls	No walls
Dural	+0.6	-1.0
Pai	+0.7	-0.8
Jeffry	+0.5	-0.9
Jacky	+0.6	-0.8
Akira	+0.3	-0.3
Sarah	+0.1	-0.2
Lau	+0.1	-0.2
Jean	+0.0	-0.2
Brad	-0.1	-0.1
Lei Fei	-0.2	-0.1
Kage	-0.1	+0.1
Aoi	-0.3	+0.0
Wolf	-0.2	+0.3
El Blaze	+0.0	+0.5
Shun	-0.4	+0.3
Vanessa	-0.3	+0.8
Goh	-0.5	+0.7
Lion	-0.6	+1.3
Eileen	-0.9	+1.8
Taka	-1.2	+2.0

Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

The widest matchup gaps

One matchup behind walls against the same matchup in the open, widest first — none of them survives correction

Matchup	Behind walls	In the open	Gap	95% interval	p	q (corrected)	Matches
Shun vs Vanessa	53.3%	44.5%	+8.8	+1.6 … +15.8	0.017	0.813	1,040
Jacky vs Vanessa	50.6%	43.4%	+7.2	+2.0 … +12.3	0.007	0.813	2,053
Lei Fei vs Lion	49.9%	42.9%	+7.0	+0.1 … +13.8	0.047	0.813	1,193
Pai vs Sarah	52.6%	45.9%	+6.7	+0.4 … +13.0	0.037	0.813	1,377
Sarah vs Vanessa	53.1%	46.9%	+6.2	-0.5 … +12.8	0.068	0.813	1,205
Lau vs Aoi	52.0%	46.5%	+5.6	-0.4 … +11.4	0.066	0.813	1,517
Shun vs Lion	46.5%	41.0%	+5.5	-0.2 … +11.1	0.059	0.813	1,603
Aoi vs Lion	47.0%	41.5%	+5.5	-1.0 … +11.8	0.097	0.841	1,344
Sarah vs Wolf	53.6%	48.3%	+5.3	+0.1 … +10.5	0.046	0.813	1,996
Jeffry vs Shun	51.6%	46.4%	+5.3	+0.1 … +10.4	0.045	0.813	1,999
Shun vs El Blaze	51.9%	46.8%	+5.1	-2.0 … +12.2	0.160	0.856	1,072
Brad vs Aoi	46.3%	41.3%	+5.0	-1.1 … +11.0	0.107	0.841	1,398
Sarah vs Kage	48.8%	44.1%	+4.7	-0.6 … +9.9	0.082	0.841	1,943
Lei Fei vs Wolf	52.6%	47.9%	+4.7	-1.2 … +10.6	0.122	0.841	1,494
Kage vs Vanessa	52.7%	48.0%	+4.7	-1.7 … +11.0	0.151	0.856	1,295
Kage vs Lion	51.8%	47.2%	+4.6	-0.3 … +9.5	0.068	0.813	2,177
Wolf vs Goh	51.1%	46.6%	+4.5	-0.7 … +9.7	0.087	0.841	1,989
Jeffry vs Lei Fei	57.4%	53.1%	+4.3	-1.8 … +10.3	0.166	0.856	1,417
Jacky vs Shun	52.1%	47.9%	+4.2	-0.1 … +8.3	0.053	0.813	3,034
Jeffry vs Sarah	54.2%	50.2%	+4.0	-1.4 … +9.4	0.147	0.856	1,818
Lion vs Vanessa	55.2%	51.2%	+4.0	-2.7 … +10.7	0.243	0.856	1,134
Lau vs Wolf	53.5%	49.5%	+4.0	-1.1 … +9.0	0.122	0.841	2,075
Akira vs Aoi	52.6%	48.7%	+3.9	-0.6 … +8.3	0.092	0.841	2,737
Pai vs Jeffry	49.1%	45.3%	+3.9	-2.0 … +9.6	0.196	0.856	1,568

Every stage type

How much of the data each stage type is

Stage	Matches	Share
Walls	191,958	60.27%
No walls	94,986	29.82%
Not recorded	15,811	4.96%

StagesBy shape10 typesWalls or no walls2 groups

12.3

Widest swing

V1.10
STAGE EFFECTS
High ranks

~

53,561 matches · 433 players

2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Matches counted53,561

Stage types10

Most affectedGoh

Widest swing12.3 pts

Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Who the stage matters to

Best stage against worst, in points

Every character, every stage

Change from that character's own win rate, in points

Character	Full	Break. full	Half	Break. half	Low	Wall	Mixed	Oct	Rect	Open
Goh	-0.3	-1.6	+0.1	+2.1	+2.5	-0.3	-8.4	-5.5	+1.5	+4.0
Taka	-3.2	+0.4	+1.7	-2.2	+0.6	+3.6	+6.1	+6.2	-5.7	-4.1
Jeffry	+0.9	+0.0	+4.0	-5.7	+4.1	-6.8	+3.6	-3.5	+3.2	+0.2
Jean	+2.7	+1.1	-0.7	-0.2	-1.6	+5.5	-7.5	-4.4	+4.5	-0.8
Eileen	+1.7	+5.7	-2.5	+1.8	-2.2	-3.2	+0.1	-3.7	-0.1	+1.5
Wolf	+2.5	-0.4	-0.5	+0.7	-2.6	+2.0	-6.3	-3.2	-1.1	+2.0
Vanessa	-1.2	-0.9	-1.4	+0.2	-1.0	+3.2	+4.0	-4.1	+2.3	-0.8
Sarah	+4.0	-1.4	+4.4	+2.1	-3.1	-2.9	+0.4	+3.3	-3.1	-3.1
El Blaze	-1.3	-0.2	+0.2	-3.2	+3.9	-2.4	+1.6	-2.6	+1.5	+2.7
Lion	-0.5	-0.9	-2.9	+0.8	-0.9	-0.5	-1.9	+1.1	+1.2	+4.2
Shun	+0.1	-3.5	-2.0	+2.9	+3.6	-3.4	-0.9	+1.2	+1.2	+0.6
Lei Fei	+2.6	+0.8	+1.6	+0.1	-0.3	+1.4	-4.2	-0.2	+0.6	-4.2
Aoi	-4.2	+1.6	+2.6	-0.6	-0.8	-0.3	-2.1	+1.9	-1.0	+0.0
Pai	-2.2	-1.4	-0.5	+0.2	-1.1	+3.7	-3.0	+0.9	+1.1	-0.8
Jacky	-2.8	-1.0	-1.0	+0.2	+1.2	+3.6	+3.4	+0.9	-2.6	+1.0
Kage	-1.5	+1.6	+0.9	-2.7	+1.7	-2.0	+3.5	+1.3	+2.7	-2.3
Lau	+1.4	+2.1	+0.8	+0.5	-2.5	+0.8	-0.1	+3.1	-2.1	-2.1
Brad	+1.8	-0.3	-2.9	+0.5	+1.2	+1.1	+1.5	-0.8	-2.2	+2.2
Akira	+0.5	+0.4	+1.6	+1.1	-1.8	-1.0	+0.8	+0.1	-0.6	-0.5
Dural	+3.2	-0.6	-4.0	+3.5	+1.5	-9.4	-37.7	+3.9	+11.3	+5.1

Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

The matchups the stage decides

One matchup on one stage, against the same matchup everywhere

Matchup	Stage	Overall	On this stage	Change	Matches
Sarah vs Shun	Single wall	45.4%	78.6%	+33.2	28
Pai vs Lei Fei	Open	45.1%	75.0%	+29.9	28
Brad vs Jeffry	Octagon	49.3%	76.0%	+26.7	25
Lau vs Eileen	Half fence	48.7%	75.0%	+26.3	24
Lau vs Wolf	Breakable full fence	51.5%	77.3%	+25.7	22
Jean vs Jacky	Single wall	46.5%	72.0%	+25.5	25
Jacky vs Wolf	Breakable half fence	50.6%	76.0%	+25.4	25
Lion vs Wolf	Rectangle	44.1%	69.2%	+25.1	26
Sarah vs Shun	Half fence	45.4%	69.2%	+23.9	26
Jacky vs Shun	Fence and open	55.5%	79.2%	+23.6	24
Jean vs Akira	Rectangle	48.6%	72.0%	+23.4	25
Kage vs Goh	Octagon	53.4%	76.7%	+23.3	30
Lei Fei vs Brad	Half fence	54.3%	76.9%	+22.6	26
Lei Fei vs Shun	Rectangle	53.5%	75.9%	+22.4	29
Lion vs Shun	Single wall	47.3%	69.0%	+21.8	42
Eileen vs Jacky	Fence and open	46.6%	68.0%	+21.4	25
Eileen vs Shun	Open	50.0%	71.4%	+21.4	21
Lei Fei vs Eileen	Full fence	59.5%	81.0%	+21.4	21
Sarah vs El Blaze	Full fence	41.6%	63.0%	+21.4	27
Akira vs Aoi	Breakable half fence	48.3%	69.6%	+21.3	23
Lion vs Lei Fei	Octagon	45.8%	66.7%	+20.9	39
Kage vs Jeffry	Breakable full fence	52.3%	73.1%	+20.8	26
Sarah vs Akira	Fence and open	46.3%	66.7%	+20.4	24
Taka vs Jean	Breakable full fence	36.0%	56.0%	+20.0	25

Every stage type

How much of the data each stage type is

Stage	Matches	Share
Full fence	5,340	9.97%
Breakable full fence	5,378	10.04%
Half fence	5,412	10.10%
Breakable half fence	5,391	10.07%
Low fence	5,253	9.81%
Single wall	5,391	10.07%
Fence and open	2,659	4.96%
Octagon	5,396	10.07%
Rectangle	5,481	10.23%
Open	5,272	9.84%
Not recorded	2,588	4.83%

Two-proportion z, Benjamini–Hochberg at 5% FDR

—

Widest walls gap

V1.10
STAGE EFFECTS
High ranks · Walls or no walls

~

53,561 matches · 433 players

2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Matches counted53,561

Stage groups2

Most affected—

Widest walls gap—

Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Who the walls suit

Walled stages against open ones, in points

Better in the openBetter behind wallsWithin chance95% interval

Is any of this chance?

The whole cut, tested at once

Walled stages dealt evenly across the rosterχ²=19.6 on 19 df, p=0.419

Matches sharing one stage drawabout 2.0, so a match is not an independent draw

Allowance made for thatevery interval and p-value here widened by ×1.09

Characters whose gap holds up0 of 20 — chance alone would give about 1.0

Matchups whose gap holds up0 of 114 — chance alone would give about 5.7

The roster taken togetherχ²=136.1 on 114 df, p=0.077

Every character, tested

The gap, the range it could be, and the odds of it being nothing

Character	Behind walls	In the open	Gap	95% interval	p	q (corrected)	Matches	Players
Sarah	47.1%	42.6%	+4.5	+1.0 … +7.9	0.011	0.157	4,349	23
Dural	52.2%	48.0%	+4.2	-6.3 … +14.5	0.439	0.711	472	13
Lau	54.9%	52.6%	+2.3	-0.1 … +4.6	0.060	0.399	9,335	59
Lei Fei	54.9%	52.9%	+1.9	-1.4 … +5.2	0.250	0.625	4,654	29
Akira	52.0%	50.4%	+1.6	-0.9 … +4.1	0.199	0.569	8,613	61
Eileen	51.6%	50.0%	+1.6	-2.5 … +5.6	0.456	0.711	3,181	33
Kage	50.3%	49.0%	+1.3	-1.3 … +3.9	0.324	0.711	7,593	67
Jeffry	46.9%	46.3%	+0.6	-3.5 … +4.7	0.783	0.887	3,028	47
Aoi	50.2%	49.6%	+0.5	-3.7 … +4.8	0.808	0.887	2,825	21
Shun	48.2%	48.4%	-0.2	-3.2 … +2.9	0.918	0.918	5,618	32
Jean	46.8%	47.3%	-0.5	-5.2 … +4.3	0.843	0.887	2,224	41
Taka	54.0%	54.6%	-0.6	-5.1 … +4.0	0.799	0.887	2,397	27
Pai	48.1%	49.0%	-0.9	-4.5 … +2.8	0.642	0.856	3,923	33
Wolf	47.9%	48.9%	-0.9	-4.8 … +3.0	0.638	0.856	3,440	33
Lion	48.6%	49.5%	-1.0	-3.6 … +1.6	0.462	0.711	7,511	56
Vanessa	43.6%	45.0%	-1.4	-4.4 … +1.6	0.364	0.711	5,684	30
Brad	48.6%	50.8%	-2.2	-5.3 … +1.0	0.173	0.569	5,168	44
El Blaze	52.4%	54.8%	-2.4	-5.7 … +0.8	0.145	0.569	4,861	40
Goh	47.4%	50.2%	-2.8	-6.8 … +1.1	0.158	0.569	3,366	20
Jacky	50.2%	53.2%	-3.1	-5.6 … -0.6	0.016	0.157	8,386	76

How significance is decided

• Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
• The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
• q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
• Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
• Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Every character, every stage

Change from that character's own win rate, in points

Character	Walls	No walls
Sarah	+1.4	-3.0
Dural	+2.8	-1.4
Lau	+0.9	-1.3
Lei Fei	+0.9	-1.0
Akira	+0.5	-1.1
Eileen	+0.4	-1.1
Kage	+0.4	-0.9
Jeffry	-0.2	-0.8
Aoi	+0.2	-0.3
Shun	+0.1	+0.2
Jean	+0.4	+0.9
Taka	-0.5	+0.1
Pai	-0.3	+0.5
Wolf	-0.3	+0.6
Lion	-0.2	+0.8
Vanessa	-0.8	+0.6
Brad	-0.7	+1.5
El Blaze	-0.9	+1.5
Goh	-0.7	+2.2
Jacky	-1.1	+2.0

Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

The widest matchup gaps

One matchup behind walls against the same matchup in the open, widest first — none of them survives correction

Matchup	Behind walls	In the open	Gap	95% interval	p	q (corrected)	Matches
Jeffry vs Shun	53.1%	33.3%	+19.7	+2.8 … +35.0	0.023	0.481	164
Wolf vs Vanessa	59.1%	39.7%	+19.4	+3.3 … +34.1	0.018	0.481	195
Sarah vs El Blaze	48.5%	31.6%	+16.9	+4.6 … +28.2	0.007	0.412	317
Sarah vs Jeffry	47.8%	31.1%	+16.7	-0.0 … +31.6	0.051	0.793	176
Jacky vs Jean	57.6%	42.0%	+15.6	-0.6 … +30.8	0.059	0.793	187
Jacky vs Taka	52.3%	38.6%	+13.7	-4.4 … +30.4	0.140	0.862	145
Lau vs Goh	60.1%	47.2%	+12.9	+1.6 … +23.9	0.025	0.481	418
Sarah vs Jacky	56.6%	43.9%	+12.7	+1.8 … +23.1	0.022	0.481	429
Lau vs Jacky	55.2%	42.6%	+12.6	+4.9 … +20.0	0.001	0.140	933
Pai vs Aoi	53.0%	41.1%	+11.9	-4.0 … +27.0	0.144	0.862	188
Kage vs Jeffry	56.5%	45.4%	+11.2	-2.9 … +24.8	0.122	0.862	254
Jeffry vs Wolf	48.8%	37.7%	+11.1	-6.9 … +27.9	0.231	0.862	141
Lei Fei vs Shun	55.2%	44.4%	+10.7	-3.1 … +24.0	0.130	0.862	304
Taka vs Lau	49.6%	39.1%	+10.6	-3.9 … +24.3	0.153	0.862	230
Sarah vs Brad	49.1%	39.4%	+9.7	-6.8 … +25.2	0.250	0.862	178
Lei Fei vs Pai	58.0%	48.8%	+9.2	-4.9 … +22.9	0.204	0.862	255
El Blaze vs Wolf	62.8%	53.9%	+9.0	-7.2 … +24.9	0.282	0.862	178
Lau vs Jean	68.3%	59.8%	+8.6	-4.9 … +22.2	0.216	0.862	248
Goh vs Lion	50.3%	42.4%	+7.9	-6.2 … +21.4	0.272	0.862	260
Vanessa vs Shun	52.1%	44.4%	+7.8	-4.1 … +19.2	0.200	0.862	362
Eileen vs Jacky	46.6%	38.9%	+7.7	-4.8 … +19.6	0.227	0.862	319
Akira vs Vanessa	58.7%	51.2%	+7.5	-2.1 … +17.1	0.125	0.862	586
Aoi vs Jacky	53.8%	46.3%	+7.5	-9.0 … +23.4	0.381	0.862	227
Akira vs Jacky	53.6%	46.5%	+7.2	-0.4 … +14.6	0.063	0.793	987

Every stage type

How much of the data each stage type is

Stage	Matches	Share
Walls	32,398	60.49%
No walls	15,916	29.72%
Not recorded	2,588	4.83%