Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Rank 30–46

Stage Impact, Round By Round

Rank bandMid and high combined1,505,904 roundsMid ranks1,289,738 roundsHigh ranks216,166 rounds

StagesBy shape10 typesWalls or no walls2 groups

3.4

Widest swing

V1.10
STAGE EFFECTS BY ROUND

~

1,505,904 rounds · 2,277 players

2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Rounds counted1,505,904

Stage types10

Most affectedTaka

Widest swing3.4 pts

Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Who the stage matters to

Best stage against worst, in points

Every character, every stage

Change from that character's own win rate, in points

Character	Full	Break. full	Half	Break. half	Low	Wall	Mixed	Oct	Rect	Open
Taka	-0.9	-0.7	-0.2	-0.7	+2.2	+2.3	+1.2	-1.0	-0.8	-0.5
Vanessa	+0.6	-0.0	-0.2	-0.4	+1.0	+0.2	+0.7	-1.0	+0.3	-0.5
Sarah	+0.2	+0.2	+0.1	+0.8	-0.3	-0.4	-0.1	+0.6	-1.2	-0.0
Lion	-0.2	-0.9	-0.3	-0.3	+0.0	+0.9	-0.4	-0.0	-0.1	+0.8
Eileen	-0.3	+1.3	-0.6	+0.1	+0.5	+0.3	-0.5	-1.7	-0.1	+0.5
Shun	-0.3	-0.5	-0.5	+0.8	+0.5	+0.1	+0.3	+0.6	-0.9	-0.2
Jeffry	+0.2	+0.7	-0.4	-0.3	+0.0	-0.5	+0.5	+0.3	+0.7	-0.9
Lau	+0.1	+0.7	+0.2	-0.6	-0.9	+0.1	+0.6	+0.0	+0.3	-0.0
Pai	+0.1	+0.2	+0.2	+0.2	-0.4	-0.2	-1.1	+0.5	+0.3	-0.0
Kage	-0.1	-0.3	+0.5	+0.2	+0.1	+0.0	+1.0	-0.0	-0.3	-0.5
Jacky	-0.1	-0.0	+0.7	+0.6	+0.4	-0.7	-0.6	+0.3	-0.3	-0.5
Brad	+0.2	-0.6	-0.6	+0.1	-0.5	+0.5	+0.8	+0.7	-0.4	+0.3
Aoi	-0.6	-0.5	-0.4	-0.1	-0.3	-0.2	+0.4	+0.0	+0.3	+0.8
Lei Fei	-0.3	+0.3	-0.2	+0.1	+0.1	-0.2	-0.3	-0.6	+0.8	-0.3
Wolf	-0.1	+0.6	+0.1	-0.7	+0.5	-0.2	-0.7	-0.6	+0.2	+0.3
Goh	-0.5	-0.6	-0.3	+0.0	+0.1	+0.2	+0.3	-0.2	+0.2	+0.7
El Blaze	+0.1	+0.4	-0.6	-0.3	-0.1	+0.4	+0.6	-0.3	+0.3	+0.5
Akira	+0.3	+0.1	+0.3	-0.5	-0.3	-0.2	-0.6	+0.2	+0.4	+0.2
Jean	+0.4	-0.1	+0.2	+0.3	-0.4	-0.1	-0.5	-0.1	-0.0	-0.0
Dural	+0.8	+0.6	+0.3	+0.2	-0.3	-0.7	-2.0	+0.4	+0.3	-0.7

Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

The matchups the stage decides

One matchup on one stage, against the same matchup everywhere

Matchup	Stage	Overall	On this stage	Change	Rounds
Jean vs Kage	Breakable full fence	49.5%	55.4%	+5.8	982
Aoi vs Shun	Full fence	50.1%	55.4%	+5.2	710
Lau vs Aoi	Breakable full fence	50.9%	56.1%	+5.2	817
Goh vs Brad	Breakable half fence	49.3%	54.5%	+5.2	760
Wolf vs Sarah	Single wall	48.8%	53.7%	+4.9	853
Wolf vs Lau	Low fence	48.5%	53.4%	+4.9	1,181
Jeffry vs Aoi	Rectangle	52.5%	57.2%	+4.7	741
Lei Fei vs Lion	Breakable half fence	50.0%	54.5%	+4.5	745
Shun vs Wolf	Open	50.4%	54.9%	+4.5	718
Lei Fei vs Shun	Rectangle	51.2%	55.3%	+4.1	868
Lau vs Akira	Fence and open	51.1%	55.1%	+4.0	1,049
Aoi vs Jeffry	Open	47.5%	51.4%	+4.0	778
Wolf vs Shun	Half fence	49.6%	53.5%	+3.9	803
Wolf vs Jean	Open	48.1%	51.9%	+3.8	1,011
Jean vs Lau	Full fence	47.5%	51.3%	+3.8	1,107
Vanessa vs Lau	Rectangle	47.6%	51.4%	+3.8	770
Brad vs Wolf	Octagon	51.7%	55.5%	+3.8	1,046
Shun vs Kage	Octagon	47.5%	51.2%	+3.8	1,007
Sarah vs Jeffry	Half fence	48.1%	51.8%	+3.7	974
Akira vs Aoi	Full fence	50.1%	53.8%	+3.7	1,454
Aoi vs Lau	Breakable half fence	49.1%	52.8%	+3.7	750
Jeffry vs Brad	Breakable full fence	49.1%	52.8%	+3.6	836
Brad vs Goh	Full fence	50.7%	54.3%	+3.6	919
Aoi vs Sarah	Rectangle	50.9%	54.4%	+3.5	682

Every stage type

How much of the data each stage type is

Stage	Rounds	Share
Full fence	154,649	10.27%
Breakable full fence	145,503	9.66%
Half fence	150,782	10.01%
Breakable half fence	145,346	9.65%
Low fence	150,780	10.01%
Single wall	150,840	10.02%
Fence and open	75,198	4.99%
Octagon	153,893	10.22%
Rectangle	152,548	10.13%
Open	151,312	10.05%
Not recorded	75,053	4.98%

Two-proportion z, Benjamini–Hochberg at 5% FDR

2.0

Widest walls gap

V1.10
STAGE EFFECTS BY ROUND
Walls or no walls

~

1,505,904 rounds · 2,277 players

2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Rounds counted1,505,904

Stage groups2

Most affectedTaka

Widest walls gap2.0 pts

Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Who the walls suit

Walled stages against open ones, in points

Better in the openBetter behind wallsWithin chance95% interval

Is any of this chance?

The whole cut, tested at once

Walled stages dealt evenly across the rosterχ²=13.3 on 19 df, p=0.821

Matches sharing one stage drawabout 8.6, so a match is not an independent draw

Allowance made for thatevery interval and p-value here widened by ×1.10

Characters whose gap holds up2 of 20 — chance alone would give about 1.0

Matchups whose gap holds up0 of 131 — chance alone would give about 6.6

The roster taken togetherχ²=158.3 on 131 df, p=0.053

Every character, tested

The gap, the range it could be, and the odds of it being nothing

Character	Behind walls	In the open	Gap	95% interval	p	q (corrected)	Rounds	Players
Dural	50.8%	49.8%	+1.0	-0.3 … +2.4	0.146	0.407	27,925	82
Jeffry	50.7%	50.1%	+0.7	+0.1 … +1.2	0.028	0.184	152,009	368
Jacky	49.9%	49.4%	+0.5	+0.0 … +0.9	0.046	0.229	251,851	494
Pai	50.1%	49.7%	+0.4	-0.2 … +1.1	0.175	0.407	124,408	281
Lau	51.0%	50.6%	+0.4	-0.1 … +1.0	0.136	0.407	171,365	333
Sarah	50.1%	49.7%	+0.4	-0.2 … +1.0	0.236	0.407	139,692	250
Jean	49.7%	49.5%	+0.3	-0.3 … +0.9	0.364	0.455	141,060	300
Akira	49.7%	49.4%	+0.3	-0.2 … +0.7	0.231	0.407	270,104	448
Lei Fei	50.2%	50.0%	+0.2	-0.5 … +0.8	0.660	0.660	111,287	199
Kage	50.8%	50.7%	+0.1	-0.4 … +0.7	0.618	0.651	174,666	392
Brad	50.1%	50.3%	-0.2	-0.8 … +0.4	0.524	0.582	139,763	278
Wolf	49.0%	49.2%	-0.3	-0.8 … +0.3	0.349	0.455	156,746	321
Aoi	49.8%	50.1%	-0.3	-1.0 … +0.4	0.406	0.478	112,127	197
Shun	48.4%	48.8%	-0.3	-0.9 … +0.3	0.333	0.455	135,510	245
El Blaze	51.0%	51.4%	-0.4	-1.1 … +0.3	0.272	0.418	103,866	248
Vanessa	49.2%	49.6%	-0.4	-1.1 … +0.3	0.244	0.407	107,074	202
Goh	49.2%	49.8%	-0.6	-1.2 … +0.0	0.059	0.234	147,859	281
Eileen	51.3%	52.0%	-0.7	-1.8 … +0.4	0.221	0.407	46,211	168
Lion	50.1%	51.0%	-0.9	-1.5 … -0.3	0.003	0.026	148,698	321
Taka	51.3%	53.3%	-2.0	-3.0 … -1.0	1e−4	0.003	49,085	182

How significance is decided

• Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
• The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
• q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
• Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
• Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Every character, every stage

Change from that character's own win rate, in points

Character	Walls	No walls
Dural	+0.4	-0.6
Jeffry	+0.2	-0.5
Jacky	+0.2	-0.3
Pai	+0.2	-0.2
Lau	+0.1	-0.3
Sarah	+0.1	-0.2
Jean	+0.1	-0.2
Akira	+0.2	-0.1
Lei Fei	+0.0	-0.1
Kage	+0.0	-0.1
Brad	-0.1	+0.1
Wolf	-0.1	+0.2
Aoi	-0.2	+0.1
Shun	-0.1	+0.2
El Blaze	-0.1	+0.3
Vanessa	-0.1	+0.3
Goh	-0.2	+0.3
Eileen	-0.2	+0.4
Lion	-0.3	+0.6
Taka	-0.7	+1.3

Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

The widest matchup gaps

One matchup behind walls against the same matchup in the open, widest first — none of them survives correction

Matchup	Behind walls	In the open	Gap	95% interval	p	q (corrected)	Rounds
Shun vs Lion	48.0%	44.5%	+3.5	+1.0 … +6.0	0.007	0.484	7,926
El Blaze vs Lion	51.1%	47.7%	+3.4	+0.3 … +6.5	0.030	0.657	5,486
Jacky vs Vanessa	50.9%	47.9%	+3.0	+0.8 … +5.2	0.007	0.484	11,189
Jeffry vs Shun	51.5%	48.5%	+3.0	+0.6 … +5.4	0.016	0.657	8,699
Jacky vs Taka	49.0%	46.1%	+2.9	-0.3 … +6.1	0.079	0.842	4,826
Sarah vs Vanessa	52.0%	49.2%	+2.9	-0.1 … +5.8	0.059	0.842	5,912
Sarah vs Wolf	52.0%	49.2%	+2.8	+0.3 … +5.2	0.026	0.657	8,822
Pai vs Sarah	51.3%	48.6%	+2.7	-0.3 … +5.6	0.078	0.842	6,045
Lei Fei vs Lion	51.0%	48.3%	+2.7	-0.2 … +5.5	0.069	0.842	6,477
Wolf vs Goh	50.6%	48.0%	+2.6	+0.2 … +5.1	0.035	0.657	8,504
Lau vs Wolf	52.2%	49.9%	+2.3	+0.0 … +4.6	0.049	0.802	9,739
Akira vs Aoi	51.2%	48.9%	+2.2	+0.2 … +4.3	0.034	0.657	12,331
Brad vs Aoi	49.1%	46.9%	+2.2	-0.6 … +5.0	0.122	0.842	6,473
Wolf vs Shun	50.0%	47.9%	+2.1	-0.5 … +4.8	0.111	0.842	7,863
Akira vs Taka	47.7%	45.6%	+2.1	-1.1 … +5.2	0.200	0.916	5,371
Pai vs Lei Fei	52.2%	50.2%	+2.0	-1.2 … +5.2	0.215	0.916	5,196
Lau vs Aoi	51.5%	49.5%	+2.0	-0.6 … +4.6	0.128	0.842	7,691
Aoi vs Shun	50.8%	48.8%	+2.0	-1.0 … +5.0	0.195	0.916	5,920
Aoi vs Lion	48.4%	46.4%	+2.0	-1.0 … +4.9	0.193	0.916	6,204
Jean vs Wolf	52.6%	50.6%	+1.9	-0.4 … +4.3	0.105	0.842	9,601
Lau vs Goh	51.6%	49.8%	+1.8	-0.6 … +4.1	0.135	0.842	9,709
Shun vs El Blaze	49.6%	48.0%	+1.7	-1.4 … +4.8	0.280	0.916	5,627
Kage vs Lion	50.0%	48.3%	+1.7	-0.5 … +3.8	0.134	0.842	10,867
Lei Fei vs Akira	52.0%	50.4%	+1.6	-0.5 … +3.6	0.128	0.842	12,543

Every stage type

How much of the data each stage type is

Stage	Rounds	Share
Walls	902,721	59.95%
No walls	452,932	30.08%
Not recorded	75,053	4.98%

StagesBy shape10 typesWalls or no walls2 groups

4.5

Widest swing

V1.10
STAGE EFFECTS BY ROUND
Mid ranks

~

1,289,738 rounds · 2,216 players

2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Rounds counted1,289,738

Stage types10

Most affectedTaka

Widest swing4.5 pts

Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Who the stage matters to

Best stage against worst, in points

Every character, every stage

Change from that character's own win rate, in points

Character	Full	Break. full	Half	Break. half	Low	Wall	Mixed	Oct	Rect	Open
Taka	-0.9	-0.6	-0.4	-0.2	+2.4	+2.3	+1.0	-2.1	-0.4	-0.3
Vanessa	+1.0	+0.1	+0.1	-0.6	+1.4	-0.2	+0.3	-0.9	+0.0	-0.7
Lion	-0.1	-1.0	-0.1	-0.4	+0.1	+1.4	-0.1	-0.2	-0.2	+0.4
Jacky	+0.1	+0.0	+0.9	+0.7	+0.5	-1.1	-0.9	+0.3	-0.2	-0.8
Sarah	-0.0	+0.3	-0.1	+0.7	-0.1	-0.2	-0.1	+0.5	-1.1	+0.3
El Blaze	+0.1	+0.7	-0.9	-0.1	-0.6	+0.7	+0.6	-0.1	+0.3	+0.3
Jeffry	+0.2	+0.6	-0.6	+0.0	-0.2	-0.2	+0.4	+0.4	+0.7	-0.9
Aoi	-0.5	-0.6	-0.5	-0.1	-0.3	-0.2	+0.5	-0.1	+0.4	+0.9
Brad	+0.1	-0.7	-0.4	+0.1	-0.7	+0.6	+0.5	+0.8	-0.4	+0.2
Shun	-0.3	-0.3	-0.4	+0.4	+0.3	+0.5	+0.5	+0.5	-1.1	-0.1
Lau	+0.1	+0.7	+0.2	-0.8	-0.7	+0.1	+0.6	-0.4	+0.6	+0.2
Goh	-0.5	-0.6	-0.3	-0.0	-0.0	+0.2	+0.9	-0.1	+0.1	+0.7
Akira	+0.2	+0.1	+0.3	-0.5	-0.2	-0.2	-0.8	+0.2	+0.5	+0.2
Kage	+0.1	-0.4	+0.4	+0.6	-0.0	+0.2	+0.8	-0.2	-0.6	-0.3
Wolf	-0.2	+0.6	+0.1	-0.8	+0.6	-0.4	-0.6	-0.5	+0.3	+0.3
Pai	+0.1	+0.4	+0.3	+0.2	-0.5	-0.6	-0.8	+0.5	+0.4	-0.1
Lei Fei	-0.5	+0.1	-0.5	+0.2	+0.2	-0.4	+0.0	-0.4	+0.7	-0.1
Jean	+0.3	-0.2	+0.2	+0.4	-0.2	-0.3	-0.3	-0.1	-0.2	+0.1
Eileen	-0.7	+0.6	-0.4	-0.1	+0.7	+0.9	-0.4	-1.4	-0.1	+0.5
Dural	+0.8	+0.6	+0.5	-0.0	-0.2	-0.4	-1.2	+0.4	-0.2	-1.0

Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

The matchups the stage decides

One matchup on one stage, against the same matchup everywhere

Matchup	Stage	Overall	On this stage	Change	Rounds
Lion vs Shun	Low fence	53.6%	60.1%	+6.5	607
Jean vs Kage	Breakable full fence	49.3%	55.3%	+5.9	932
Lau vs Aoi	Breakable full fence	50.0%	55.7%	+5.6	636
Wolf vs Sarah	Single wall	48.8%	54.4%	+5.6	756
Kage vs Pai	Single wall	50.1%	55.3%	+5.2	694
Aoi vs Shun	Full fence	50.1%	55.1%	+5.1	642
Goh vs Brad	Breakable half fence	49.6%	54.6%	+5.0	696
Jeffry vs Lei Fei	Breakable full fence	53.0%	57.9%	+4.9	599
Wolf vs Lau	Low fence	48.3%	53.0%	+4.7	1,055
Vanessa vs Lion	Low fence	48.7%	53.2%	+4.5	603
Shun vs Wolf	Open	50.1%	54.6%	+4.5	652
Jeffry vs Aoi	Rectangle	52.8%	57.2%	+4.5	704
Vanessa vs Jacky	Low fence	50.8%	55.3%	+4.5	1,006
Aoi vs Lau	Breakable half fence	50.0%	54.4%	+4.5	564
Akira vs Pai	Fence and open	50.6%	55.0%	+4.4	569
Lei Fei vs Lion	Breakable half fence	49.1%	53.5%	+4.4	572
Lei Fei vs Jeffry	Low fence	47.0%	51.3%	+4.3	725
Brad vs Lion	Octagon	50.1%	54.4%	+4.3	688
Aoi vs Jeffry	Open	47.2%	51.5%	+4.2	740
Vanessa vs Kage	Low fence	49.2%	53.3%	+4.2	613
Brad vs Jacky	Single wall	52.7%	56.8%	+4.1	1,254
Jean vs Aoi	Half fence	49.4%	53.3%	+3.9	576
Brad vs Goh	Full fence	50.4%	54.4%	+3.9	872
Shun vs Jacky	Fence and open	49.0%	52.9%	+3.9	682

Every stage type

How much of the data each stage type is

Stage	Rounds	Share
Full fence	132,828	10.30%
Breakable full fence	124,480	9.65%
Half fence	128,801	9.99%
Breakable half fence	124,246	9.63%
Low fence	129,522	10.04%
Single wall	128,875	9.99%
Fence and open	64,392	4.99%
Octagon	131,843	10.22%
Rectangle	130,301	10.10%
Open	129,897	10.07%
Not recorded	64,553	5.01%

Two-proportion z, Benjamini–Hochberg at 5% FDR

2.2

Widest walls gap

V1.10
STAGE EFFECTS BY ROUND
Mid ranks · Walls or no walls

~

1,289,738 rounds · 2,216 players

2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Rounds counted1,289,738

Stage groups2

Most affectedTaka

Widest walls gap2.2 pts

Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Who the walls suit

Walled stages against open ones, in points

Better in the openBetter behind wallsWithin chance95% interval

Is any of this chance?

The whole cut, tested at once

Walled stages dealt evenly across the rosterχ²=11.8 on 19 df, p=0.892

Matches sharing one stage drawabout 8.3, so a match is not an independent draw

Allowance made for thatevery interval and p-value here widened by ×1.12

Characters whose gap holds up3 of 20 — chance alone would give about 1.0

Matchups whose gap holds up0 of 129 — chance alone would give about 6.5

The roster taken togetherχ²=160.7 on 129 df, p=0.031

Every character, tested

The gap, the range it could be, and the odds of it being nothing

Character	Behind walls	In the open	Gap	95% interval	p	q (corrected)	Rounds	Players
Dural	50.7%	49.8%	+0.9	-0.6 … +2.3	0.228	0.507	26,062	77
Jacky	49.8%	49.0%	+0.8	+0.3 … +1.2	0.003	0.026	217,636	457
Pai	50.3%	49.6%	+0.7	-0.0 … +1.4	0.057	0.229	108,673	263
Jeffry	50.9%	50.2%	+0.7	+0.0 … +1.3	0.034	0.169	140,178	354
Akira	49.5%	49.2%	+0.2	-0.2 … +0.7	0.331	0.602	235,195	422
Jean	49.8%	49.6%	+0.2	-0.4 … +0.9	0.498	0.711	132,103	276
Lau	50.6%	50.4%	+0.2	-0.4 … +0.8	0.535	0.713	133,538	308
Sarah	50.3%	50.3%	+0.0	-0.6 … +0.7	0.893	0.986	122,265	238
Kage	51.0%	51.0%	+0.0	-0.6 … +0.6	0.986	0.986	143,919	356
Lei Fei	49.6%	49.6%	+0.0	-0.7 … +0.8	0.961	0.986	92,556	185
Brad	50.3%	50.4%	-0.1	-0.8 … +0.6	0.822	0.967	118,871	253
El Blaze	50.9%	51.1%	-0.1	-0.9 … +0.7	0.751	0.939	84,175	231
Wolf	49.0%	49.3%	-0.3	-0.9 … +0.3	0.393	0.655	142,794	301
Vanessa	49.9%	50.2%	-0.3	-1.1 … +0.5	0.485	0.711	83,984	187
Aoi	49.7%	50.1%	-0.4	-1.1 … +0.3	0.300	0.600	100,730	187
Shun	48.5%	49.0%	-0.4	-1.1 … +0.2	0.208	0.507	113,160	233
Goh	49.2%	49.7%	-0.5	-1.1 … +0.1	0.113	0.323	134,168	272
Lion	50.4%	51.4%	-1.0	-1.7 … -0.3	0.004	0.026	118,457	296
Eileen	51.3%	52.4%	-1.0	-2.3 … +0.2	0.112	0.323	33,481	151
Taka	51.1%	53.3%	-2.2	-3.4 … -1.0	2e−4	0.004	39,641	168

How significance is decided

• Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
• The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
• q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
• Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
• Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Every character, every stage

Change from that character's own win rate, in points

Character	Walls	No walls
Dural	+0.3	-0.5
Jacky	+0.3	-0.5
Pai	+0.3	-0.4
Jeffry	+0.2	-0.5
Akira	+0.2	-0.1
Jean	+0.1	-0.1
Lau	+0.0	-0.2
Sarah	+0.0	-0.0
Kage	-0.0	-0.0
Lei Fei	-0.1	-0.1
Brad	-0.1	+0.0
El Blaze	+0.0	+0.1
Wolf	-0.1	+0.2
Vanessa	-0.1	+0.2
Aoi	-0.2	+0.1
Shun	-0.2	+0.2
Goh	-0.2	+0.3
Lion	-0.3	+0.7
Eileen	-0.4	+0.7
Taka	-0.8	+1.4

Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

The widest matchup gaps

One matchup behind walls against the same matchup in the open, widest first — none of them survives correction

Matchup	Behind walls	In the open	Gap	95% interval	p	q (corrected)	Rounds
Jacky vs Vanessa	50.2%	46.6%	+3.6	+1.0 … +6.2	0.006	0.624	8,372
Shun vs Lion	47.2%	44.0%	+3.2	+0.3 … +6.1	0.029	0.788	6,314
Sarah vs Wolf	52.0%	48.9%	+3.2	+0.6 … +5.8	0.017	0.722	8,091
Shun vs Vanessa	50.6%	47.4%	+3.2	-0.4 … +6.7	0.084	0.788	4,166
Lei Fei vs Lion	50.1%	47.1%	+2.9	-0.5 … +6.3	0.093	0.788	4,868
Pai vs Sarah	51.0%	48.1%	+2.9	-0.2 … +6.1	0.067	0.788	5,587
Akira vs Taka	48.0%	45.1%	+2.8	-0.6 … +6.2	0.104	0.788	4,628
Jacky vs Shun	52.3%	49.5%	+2.8	+0.7 … +4.9	0.010	0.624	12,056
Brad vs Aoi	48.4%	45.8%	+2.6	-0.5 … +5.6	0.095	0.788	5,702
Wolf vs Goh	50.6%	48.0%	+2.6	+0.0 … +5.1	0.049	0.788	8,103
Lau vs Aoi	50.9%	48.4%	+2.5	-0.4 … +5.5	0.094	0.788	6,149
Jeffry vs Sarah	52.4%	49.9%	+2.5	-0.2 … +5.2	0.067	0.788	7,334
Lau vs Wolf	52.5%	50.0%	+2.5	+0.0 … +5.0	0.049	0.788	8,426
Sarah vs Vanessa	51.5%	49.0%	+2.5	-0.9 … +5.8	0.147	0.883	4,841
Akira vs Aoi	51.4%	49.0%	+2.4	+0.2 … +4.7	0.032	0.788	11,095
Jacky vs Taka	48.7%	46.3%	+2.4	-1.1 … +5.8	0.185	0.884	4,240
Lion vs Vanessa	52.6%	50.3%	+2.3	-1.0 … +5.6	0.168	0.883	4,650
Wolf vs Shun	50.3%	48.1%	+2.2	-0.6 … +5.0	0.116	0.788	7,131
El Blaze vs Sarah	50.4%	48.1%	+2.2	-1.2 … +5.7	0.211	0.939	4,726
Aoi vs Lion	48.2%	46.0%	+2.2	-1.0 … +5.4	0.178	0.883	5,450
Pai vs Lion	49.6%	47.4%	+2.2	-0.9 … +5.2	0.163	0.883	5,567
Vanessa vs Akira	51.3%	49.2%	+2.1	-0.3 … +4.5	0.082	0.788	9,415
Jeffry vs Shun	51.5%	49.4%	+2.1	-0.5 … +4.6	0.114	0.788	8,076
Aoi vs Shun	50.6%	48.7%	+2.0	-1.3 … +5.3	0.240	0.940	5,023

Every stage type

How much of the data each stage type is

Stage	Rounds	Share
Walls	772,499	59.90%
No walls	388,294	30.11%
Not recorded	64,553	5.01%

StagesBy shape10 typesWalls or no walls2 groups

6.8

Widest swing

V1.10
STAGE EFFECTS BY ROUND
High ranks

~

216,166 rounds · 433 players

2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Rounds counted216,166

Stage types10

Most affectedJeffry

Widest swing6.8 pts

Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Who the stage matters to

Best stage against worst, in points

Every character, every stage

Change from that character's own win rate, in points

Character	Full	Break. full	Half	Break. half	Low	Wall	Mixed	Oct	Rect	Open
Jeffry	+0.5	+2.0	+1.2	-4.0	+2.7	-4.2	+2.5	-1.4	+1.5	-0.2
Goh	-0.2	-0.6	-0.1	+0.8	+1.5	+0.1	-5.0	-1.6	+0.8	+1.3
Taka	-1.2	-0.9	+0.8	-2.3	+1.5	+2.3	+1.7	+3.8	-2.5	-1.6
Pai	-0.4	-0.7	-0.6	-0.1	-0.2	+2.3	-3.5	+0.0	+0.0	+0.6
Eileen	+0.7	+2.9	-1.1	+0.7	-0.2	-1.3	-0.9	-2.3	+0.1	+0.7
Jean	+2.0	+0.8	+0.1	-0.3	-2.0	+2.5	-5.7	-0.6	+2.7	-1.7
Sarah	+2.0	-0.4	+2.2	+1.7	-1.6	-1.5	-0.5	+1.2	-1.2	-2.0
Shun	-0.3	-1.6	-0.9	+2.5	+1.5	-1.6	-0.1	+1.2	-0.0	-0.5
El Blaze	-0.3	-1.2	+0.7	-1.6	+2.3	-0.7	+0.6	-1.3	+0.2	+1.4
Wolf	+1.2	+0.6	+0.5	-0.2	-0.8	+1.4	-2.4	-2.3	-0.8	-0.2
Vanessa	-0.9	-0.4	-1.5	+0.5	-0.7	+1.6	+2.2	-1.4	+1.2	-0.1
Lion	-0.1	-0.8	-1.1	+0.1	-0.1	-0.7	-1.3	+0.7	+0.3	+2.4
Brad	+0.6	-0.3	-1.5	+0.1	+0.7	+0.0	+2.0	-0.3	-0.8	+0.8
Kage	-1.1	+0.5	+1.0	-1.2	+0.5	-0.7	+1.9	+0.8	+1.1	-1.3
Lei Fei	+0.9	+1.1	+0.8	+0.1	-0.4	+0.5	-2.0	-1.2	+1.0	-1.6
Lau	+0.5	+0.8	+0.3	+0.5	-1.5	+0.2	+0.8	+1.3	-0.8	-0.8
Jacky	-1.4	-0.2	-0.4	+0.2	+0.3	+1.4	+1.4	+0.1	-1.2	+1.1
Aoi	-0.9	+0.8	+0.4	-0.1	-0.5	-0.4	-0.3	+0.9	-0.0	-0.3
Akira	+0.5	-0.1	+0.4	+0.1	-0.8	-0.0	+0.9	+0.1	-0.3	-0.1
Dural	+1.9	-1.2	-2.4	+4.0	-1.7	-4.8	-19.7	+0.5	+6.5	+3.8

Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

The matchups the stage decides

One matchup on one stage, against the same matchup everywhere

Matchup	Stage	Overall	On this stage	Change	Rounds
Brad vs Jeffry	Octagon	47.2%	65.2%	+18.0	92
Sarah vs Shun	Single wall	48.5%	65.4%	+16.9	107
Lei Fei vs Shun	Rectangle	52.4%	67.3%	+14.9	110
Vanessa vs Wolf	Single wall	49.6%	63.8%	+14.2	94
Jacky vs Shun	Fence and open	54.4%	68.1%	+13.7	91
Jean vs Jacky	Single wall	49.1%	62.6%	+13.5	99
Jacky vs Wolf	Breakable half fence	50.9%	63.8%	+12.9	105
Sarah vs Shun	Half fence	48.5%	61.2%	+12.7	103
Taka vs Jean	Breakable full fence	37.2%	49.0%	+11.8	98
Lion vs Wolf	Rectangle	46.8%	58.3%	+11.5	108
Sarah vs El Blaze	Full fence	44.9%	56.2%	+11.3	112
Vanessa vs Shun	Rectangle	49.8%	61.1%	+11.3	126
Pai vs Lei Fei	Open	47.5%	58.5%	+11.1	123
Lei Fei vs Brad	Half fence	52.9%	63.8%	+10.9	105
El Blaze vs Sarah	Single wall	55.1%	66.0%	+10.9	97
Kage vs Goh	Octagon	50.9%	61.8%	+10.9	123
Jean vs Akira	Rectangle	48.8%	59.6%	+10.8	99
El Blaze vs Aoi	Full fence	43.8%	54.5%	+10.7	99
Shun vs Taka	Full fence	45.9%	56.6%	+10.7	106
Lion vs Goh	Open	50.2%	60.9%	+10.7	92
Jeffry vs Kage	Open	49.6%	60.0%	+10.4	95
Lion vs Shun	Single wall	50.6%	61.0%	+10.4	169
Akira vs Aoi	Breakable half fence	48.8%	59.1%	+10.3	88
Kage vs Wolf	Fence and open	54.2%	64.3%	+10.1	84

Every stage type

How much of the data each stage type is

Stage	Rounds	Share
Full fence	21,821	10.09%
Breakable full fence	21,023	9.73%
Half fence	21,981	10.17%
Breakable half fence	21,100	9.76%
Low fence	21,258	9.83%
Single wall	21,965	10.16%
Fence and open	10,806	5.00%
Octagon	22,050	10.20%
Rectangle	22,247	10.29%
Open	21,415	9.91%
Not recorded	10,500	4.86%

Two-proportion z, Benjamini–Hochberg at 5% FDR

—

Widest walls gap

V1.10
STAGE EFFECTS BY ROUND
High ranks · Walls or no walls

~

216,166 rounds · 433 players

2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Rounds counted216,166

Stage groups2

Most affected—

Widest walls gap—

Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Who the walls suit

Walled stages against open ones, in points

Better in the openBetter behind wallsWithin chance95% interval

Is any of this chance?

The whole cut, tested at once

Walled stages dealt evenly across the rosterχ²=17.9 on 19 df, p=0.532

Matches sharing one stage drawabout 8.4, so a match is not an independent draw

Allowance made for thatevery interval and p-value here widened by ×1.15

Characters whose gap holds up0 of 20 — chance alone would give about 1.0

Matchups whose gap holds up0 of 114 — chance alone would give about 5.7

The roster taken togetherχ²=151.3 on 114 df, p=0.011

Every character, tested

The gap, the range it could be, and the odds of it being nothing

Character	Behind walls	In the open	Gap	95% interval	p	q (corrected)	Rounds	Players
Dural	52.1%	49.3%	+2.8	-2.7 … +8.3	0.320	0.546	1,863	13
Sarah	48.3%	45.8%	+2.6	+0.8 … +4.4	0.005	0.103	17,427	23
Lau	52.5%	51.4%	+1.2	-0.1 … +2.4	0.066	0.383	37,827	59
Jean	48.9%	47.7%	+1.1	-1.4 … +3.7	0.367	0.546	8,957	41
Lei Fei	52.7%	51.8%	+0.9	-0.8 … +2.6	0.300	0.546	18,731	29
Kage	49.9%	49.1%	+0.7	-0.6 … +2.1	0.290	0.546	30,747	67
Aoi	50.5%	50.0%	+0.6	-1.6 … +2.8	0.614	0.729	11,397	21
Jeffry	49.1%	48.6%	+0.5	-1.7 … +2.7	0.656	0.729	11,831	47
Akira	51.1%	50.7%	+0.4	-0.9 … +1.7	0.559	0.729	34,909	61
Shun	48.0%	47.7%	+0.4	-1.2 … +2.0	0.652	0.729	22,350	32
Eileen	51.3%	51.0%	+0.3	-1.8 … +2.5	0.761	0.761	12,730	33
Wolf	48.8%	49.1%	-0.4	-2.4 … +1.7	0.730	0.761	13,952	33
Lion	49.0%	49.6%	-0.6	-2.0 … +0.8	0.382	0.546	30,241	56
Vanessa	46.6%	47.4%	-0.8	-2.3 … +0.8	0.359	0.546	23,090	30
Brad	49.1%	50.0%	-0.9	-2.5 … +0.8	0.287	0.546	20,892	44
Pai	49.0%	50.2%	-1.2	-3.1 … +0.8	0.235	0.546	15,735	33
Goh	49.0%	50.2%	-1.2	-3.2 … +0.9	0.262	0.546	13,691	20
Taka	52.0%	53.2%	-1.2	-3.6 … +1.2	0.340	0.546	9,444	27
Jacky	50.4%	51.9%	-1.4	-2.8 … -0.1	0.030	0.296	34,215	76
El Blaze	51.2%	52.8%	-1.5	-3.2 … +0.2	0.077	0.383	19,691	40

How significance is decided

• Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
• The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
• q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
• Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
• Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Every character, every stage

Change from that character's own win rate, in points

Character	Walls	No walls
Dural	+1.6	-1.3
Sarah	+0.9	-1.7
Lau	+0.4	-0.7
Jean	+0.7	-0.5
Lei Fei	+0.4	-0.5
Kage	+0.2	-0.5
Aoi	+0.2	-0.4
Jeffry	-0.0	-0.5
Akira	+0.1	-0.3
Shun	+0.2	-0.2
Eileen	+0.1	-0.2
Wolf	-0.2	+0.2
Lion	-0.2	+0.5
Vanessa	-0.4	+0.3
Brad	-0.4	+0.5
Pai	-0.3	+0.9
Goh	-0.2	+1.0
Taka	-0.4	+0.8
Jacky	-0.5	+0.9
El Blaze	-0.6	+1.0

Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

The widest matchup gaps

One matchup behind walls against the same matchup in the open, widest first — none of them survives correction

Matchup	Behind walls	In the open	Gap	95% interval	p	q (corrected)	Rounds
Jeffry vs Shun	52.1%	38.7%	+13.4	+4.2 … +22.3	0.004	0.255	623
Wolf vs Vanessa	54.3%	43.6%	+10.7	+2.1 … +19.1	0.014	0.408	765
Sarah vs Jeffry	45.5%	36.4%	+9.1	+0.0 … +17.9	0.050	0.895	662
Sarah vs El Blaze	48.3%	39.8%	+8.5	+2.1 … +14.8	0.010	0.375	1,300
Jeffry vs Wolf	49.4%	42.5%	+6.9	-2.6 … +16.2	0.157	0.935	569
Jacky vs Taka	52.0%	45.3%	+6.7	-2.8 … +16.1	0.167	0.935	586
Jacky vs Jean	52.6%	45.9%	+6.7	-1.8 … +15.1	0.121	0.935	762
Lei Fei vs Shun	53.8%	47.3%	+6.5	-0.8 … +13.7	0.079	0.895	1,217
Goh vs Lion	51.1%	44.8%	+6.3	-1.2 … +13.7	0.100	0.935	1,032
Kage vs Jeffry	52.6%	46.7%	+5.9	-1.8 … +13.5	0.134	0.935	969
Lau vs Jacky	52.4%	46.6%	+5.8	+1.9 … +9.8	0.004	0.255	3,816
Lau vs Goh	54.5%	48.8%	+5.7	-0.2 … +11.5	0.059	0.895	1,699
Sarah vs Jacky	52.8%	47.3%	+5.5	-0.2 … +11.1	0.059	0.895	1,731
Sarah vs Brad	49.9%	44.5%	+5.4	-3.3 … +14.0	0.224	0.935	724
Jeffry vs Akira	47.3%	42.0%	+5.2	-3.0 … +13.3	0.213	0.935	1,019
Jeffry vs Jacky	47.1%	42.0%	+5.1	-3.0 … +13.1	0.217	0.935	835
Kage vs Taka	48.8%	44.0%	+4.8	-2.5 … +12.1	0.198	0.935	1,002
Lau vs Brad	55.4%	50.8%	+4.6	-0.7 … +9.8	0.086	0.895	1,973
Sarah vs Vanessa	54.4%	49.9%	+4.6	-2.8 … +11.9	0.224	0.935	1,071
Akira vs Vanessa	54.7%	50.2%	+4.5	-0.6 … +9.5	0.082	0.895	2,391
El Blaze vs Wolf	57.3%	52.9%	+4.5	-4.2 … +13.1	0.313	0.935	713
Shun vs Lion	50.9%	46.4%	+4.4	-1.6 … +10.4	0.149	0.935	1,612
Shun vs Jacky	47.9%	43.5%	+4.4	-0.5 … +9.2	0.079	0.895	2,260
Lion vs Pai	51.8%	47.5%	+4.2	-2.5 … +11.0	0.220	0.935	1,207

Every stage type

How much of the data each stage type is

Stage	Rounds	Share
Walls	130,222	60.24%
No walls	64,638	29.90%
Not recorded	10,500	4.86%