Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Vanessa vs Wolf
Matches counted1,560
Win rate51.9%
Widest swing5.8 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Vanessa's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low fence | 57.7% | +5.8 | 0.137 | 149 | |
| Breakable half fence | 56.4% | +4.4 | 0.204 | 181 | |
| Fence and open | 54.5% | +2.6 | 0.692 | 55 · | |
| Full fence | 54.5% | +2.6 | 0.482 | 167 | |
| Single wall | 53.6% | +1.7 | 0.656 | 151 | |
| Rectangle | 51.7% | -0.3 | 0.945 | 151 | |
| Open | 49.6% | -2.3 | 0.568 | 143 | |
| Octagon | 48.5% | -3.4 | 0.348 | 171 | |
| Half fence | 48.3% | -3.6 | 0.355 | 147 | |
| Breakable full fence | 47.4% | -4.5 | 0.207 | 173 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Vanessa's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 7.46 on 9 df, p 0.589
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 54.5%167 | +7.10.191 | +6.20.273 | -1.90.727 | -3.20.564 | +0.80.879 | -0.10.994 | +4.80.395 | +2.80.613 | +6.00.274 |
| Breakable full fence | -7.10.191 | 47.4%173 | -0.90.872 | -8.90.092 | -10.30.065 | -6.20.262 | -7.20.356 | -2.20.690 | -4.30.445 | -1.10.833 |
| Half fence | -6.20.273 | +0.90.872 | 48.3%147 | -8.10.146 | -9.40.104 | -5.30.356 | -6.20.429 | -1.40.818 | -3.40.562 | -0.20.966 |
| Breakable half fence | +1.90.727 | +8.90.092 | +8.10.146 | 56.4%181 | -1.40.803 | +2.70.621 | +1.80.813 | +6.70.230 | +4.70.392 | +7.80.142 |
| Low fence | +3.20.564 | +10.30.065 | +9.40.104 | +1.40.803 | 57.7%149 | +4.10.477 | +3.20.685 | +8.10.167 | +6.10.292 | +9.20.101 |
| Single wall | -0.80.879 | +6.20.262 | +5.30.356 | -2.70.621 | -4.10.477 | 53.6%151 | -0.90.908 | +4.00.494 | +2.00.730 | +5.10.361 |
| Fence and open | +0.10.994 | +7.20.356 | +6.20.429 | -1.80.813 | -3.20.685 | +0.90.908 | 54.5%55 | +4.90.537 | +2.90.713 | +6.00.438 |
| Open | -4.80.395 | +2.20.690 | +1.40.818 | -6.70.230 | -8.10.167 | -4.00.494 | -4.90.537 | 49.6%143 | -2.00.731 | +1.10.844 |
| Rectangle | -2.80.613 | +4.30.445 | +3.40.562 | -4.70.392 | -6.10.292 | -2.00.730 | -2.90.713 | +2.00.731 | 51.7%151 | +3.10.577 |
| Octagon | -6.00.274 | +1.10.833 | +0.20.966 | -7.80.142 | -9.20.101 | -5.10.361 | -6.00.438 | -1.10.844 | -3.10.577 | 48.5%171 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted1,345
Win rate52.5%
Widest swing5.2 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Vanessa's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakable half fence | 57.7% | +5.2 | 0.166 | 156 | |
| Low fence | 57.4% | +4.9 | 0.244 | 129 | |
| Full fence | 56.4% | +3.9 | 0.324 | 140 | |
| Rectangle | 53.8% | +1.3 | 0.753 | 132 | |
| Single wall | 51.2% | -1.3 | 0.762 | 125 | |
| Fence and open | 51.0% | -1.5 | 0.834 | 49 · | |
| Octagon | 50.0% | -2.5 | 0.514 | 152 | |
| Half fence | 49.3% | -3.2 | 0.427 | 136 | |
| Breakable full fence | 49.0% | -3.5 | 0.366 | 147 | |
| Open | 48.8% | -3.7 | 0.389 | 121 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Vanessa's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 6.35 on 9 df, p 0.705
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 56.4%140 | +7.50.206 | +7.20.233 | -1.30.826 | -0.90.877 | +5.20.394 | +5.40.512 | +7.70.216 | +2.60.662 | +6.40.271 |
| Breakable full fence | -7.50.206 | 49.0%147 | -0.30.962 | -8.70.129 | -8.40.164 | -2.20.715 | -2.00.805 | +0.20.971 | -4.80.422 | -1.00.860 |
| Half fence | -7.20.233 | +0.30.962 | 49.3%136 | -8.40.150 | -8.10.187 | -1.90.755 | -1.80.833 | +0.50.936 | -4.50.459 | -0.70.901 |
| Breakable half fence | +1.30.826 | +8.70.129 | +8.40.150 | 57.7%156 | +0.30.956 | +6.50.277 | +6.70.412 | +8.90.139 | +3.90.506 | +7.70.176 |
| Low fence | +0.90.877 | +8.40.164 | +8.10.187 | -0.30.956 | 57.4%129 | +6.20.324 | +6.30.447 | +8.60.173 | +3.60.561 | +7.40.218 |
| Single wall | -5.20.394 | +2.20.715 | +1.90.755 | -6.50.277 | -6.20.324 | 51.2%125 | +0.20.983 | +2.40.702 | -2.60.678 | +1.20.842 |
| Fence and open | -5.40.512 | +2.00.805 | +1.80.833 | -6.70.412 | -6.30.447 | -0.20.983 | 51.0%49 | +2.30.789 | -2.80.740 | +1.00.901 |
| Open | -7.70.216 | -0.20.971 | -0.50.936 | -8.90.139 | -8.60.173 | -2.40.702 | -2.30.789 | 48.8%121 | -5.00.424 | -1.20.839 |
| Rectangle | -2.60.662 | +4.80.422 | +4.50.459 | -3.90.506 | -3.60.561 | +2.60.678 | +2.80.740 | +5.00.424 | 53.8%132 | +3.80.524 |
| Octagon | -6.40.271 | +1.00.860 | +0.70.901 | -7.70.176 | -7.40.218 | -1.20.842 | -1.00.901 | +1.20.839 | -3.80.524 | 50.0%152 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted215
Win rate48.4%
Widest swing35.0 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Vanessa's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 83.3% | +35.0 | 0.082 | 6 · | |
| Single wall | 65.4% | +17.0 | 0.064 | 26 · | |
| Low fence | 60.0% | +11.6 | 0.275 | 20 · | |
| Open | 54.5% | +6.2 | 0.541 | 22 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 48.0% | -0.4 | 0.968 | 25 · | |
| Full fence | 44.4% | -3.9 | 0.662 | 27 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 38.5% | -9.9 | 0.281 | 26 · | |
| Octagon | 36.8% | -11.5 | 0.292 | 19 · | |
| Rectangle | 36.8% | -11.5 | 0.292 | 19 · | |
| Half fence | 36.4% | -12.0 | 0.413 | 11 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Vanessa's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 11.20 on 9 df, p 0.262
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 44.4%27 | +6.00.659 | +8.10.647 | -3.60.797 | -15.60.292 | -20.90.126 | -38.90.085 | -10.10.482 | +7.60.606 | +7.60.606 |
| Breakable full fence | -6.00.659 | 38.5%26 | +2.10.904 | -9.50.492 | -21.50.147 | -26.90.052 | -44.90.047 | -16.10.265 | +1.60.912 | +1.60.912 |
| Half fence | -8.10.647 | -2.10.904 | 36.4%11 | -11.60.517 | -23.60.208 | -29.00.103 | -47.00.064 | -18.20.325 | -0.50.979 | -0.50.979 |
| Breakable half fence | +3.60.797 | +9.50.492 | +11.60.517 | 48.0%25 | -12.00.423 | -17.40.210 | -35.30.118 | -6.50.654 | +11.20.459 | +11.20.459 |
| Low fence | +15.60.292 | +21.50.147 | +23.60.208 | +12.00.423 | 60.0%20 | -5.40.708 | -23.30.292 | +5.50.721 | +23.20.148 | +23.20.148 |
| Single wall | +20.90.126 | +26.90.052 | +29.00.103 | +17.40.210 | +5.40.708 | 65.4%26 | -17.90.393 | +10.80.444 | +28.50.058 | +28.50.058 |
| Fence and open | +38.90.085 | +44.90.047 | +47.00.064 | +35.30.118 | +23.30.292 | +17.90.393 | 83.3%6 | +28.80.201 | +46.50.047 | +46.50.047 |
| Open | +10.10.482 | +16.10.265 | +18.20.325 | +6.50.654 | -5.50.721 | -10.80.444 | -28.80.201 | 54.5%22 | +17.70.257 | +17.70.257 |
| Rectangle | -7.60.606 | -1.60.912 | +0.50.979 | -11.20.459 | -23.20.148 | -28.50.058 | -46.50.047 | -17.70.257 | 36.8%19 | +0.01.000 |
| Octagon | -7.60.606 | -1.60.912 | +0.50.979 | -11.20.459 | -23.20.148 | -28.50.058 | -46.50.047 | -17.70.257 | -0.01.000 | 36.8%19 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.