Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Taka vs Vanessa
Matches counted585
Win rate52.5%
Widest swing-26.2 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Taka's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single wall | 58.1% | +5.6 | 0.299 | 74 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 58.0% | +5.5 | 0.414 | 50 · | |
| Octagon | 57.4% | +4.9 | 0.418 | 61 · | |
| Full fence | 56.4% | +3.9 | 0.544 | 55 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 55.7% | +3.2 | 0.563 | 70 · | |
| Rectangle | 51.1% | -1.4 | 0.848 | 45 · | |
| Open | 48.4% | -4.0 | 0.493 | 64 · | |
| Half fence | 47.6% | -4.9 | 0.414 | 63 · | |
| Low fence | 44.9% | -7.6 | 0.267 | 49 · | |
| Fence and open | 26.3% | -26.2 | 0.020 | 19 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Taka's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 10.15 on 9 df, p 0.338
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 56.4%55 | +0.70.942 | +8.70.343 | -1.60.866 | +11.50.243 | -1.80.843 | +30.00.024 | +7.90.388 | +5.20.600 | -1.00.912 |
| Breakable full fence | -0.70.942 | 55.7%70 | +8.10.351 | -2.30.803 | +10.80.245 | -2.40.772 | +29.40.023 | +7.30.400 | +4.60.629 | -1.70.848 |
| Half fence | -8.70.343 | -8.10.351 | 47.6%63 | -10.40.273 | +2.70.775 | -10.50.220 | +21.30.100 | -0.80.926 | -3.50.720 | -9.80.277 |
| Breakable half fence | +1.60.866 | +2.30.803 | +10.40.273 | 58.0%50 | +13.10.192 | -0.10.990 | +31.70.019 | +9.60.310 | +6.90.501 | +0.60.947 |
| Low fence | -11.50.243 | -10.80.245 | -2.70.775 | -13.10.192 | 44.9%49 | -13.20.151 | +18.60.160 | -3.50.709 | -6.20.547 | -12.50.193 |
| Single wall | +1.80.843 | +2.40.772 | +10.50.220 | +0.10.990 | +13.20.151 | 58.1%74 | +31.80.013 | +9.70.256 | +7.00.456 | +0.70.932 |
| Fence and open | -30.00.024 | -29.40.023 | -21.30.100 | -31.70.019 | -18.60.160 | -31.80.013 | 26.3%19 | -22.10.088 | -24.80.068 | -31.10.018 |
| Open | -7.90.388 | -7.30.400 | +0.80.926 | -9.60.310 | +3.50.709 | -9.70.256 | +22.10.088 | 48.4%64 | -2.70.783 | -8.90.317 |
| Rectangle | -5.20.600 | -4.60.629 | +3.50.720 | -6.90.501 | +6.20.547 | -7.00.456 | +24.80.068 | +2.70.783 | 51.1%45 | -6.30.522 |
| Octagon | +1.00.912 | +1.70.848 | +9.80.277 | -0.60.947 | +12.50.193 | -0.70.932 | +31.10.018 | +8.90.317 | +6.30.522 | 57.4%61 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted375
Win rate47.2%
Widest swing-27.2 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Taka's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakable half fence | 52.8% | +5.6 | 0.481 | 36 · | |
| Full fence | 50.0% | +2.8 | 0.715 | 38 · | |
| Octagon | 50.0% | +2.8 | 0.715 | 38 · | |
| Rectangle | 50.0% | +2.8 | 0.749 | 30 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 48.9% | +1.7 | 0.809 | 45 · | |
| Half fence | 47.2% | +0.0 | 0.998 | 36 · | |
| Single wall | 44.7% | -2.5 | 0.748 | 38 · | |
| Open | 44.7% | -2.5 | 0.711 | 47 · | |
| Low fence | 37.9% | -9.3 | 0.298 | 29 · | |
| Fence and open | 20.0% | -27.2 | 0.031 | 15 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Taka's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 6.40 on 9 df, p 0.699
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 50.0%38 | +1.10.920 | +2.80.811 | -2.80.811 | +12.10.325 | +5.30.646 | +30.00.046 | +5.30.625 | +0.01.000 | +0.01.000 |
| Breakable full fence | -1.10.920 | 48.9%45 | +1.70.881 | -3.90.728 | +11.00.355 | +4.20.706 | +28.90.049 | +4.20.686 | -1.10.925 | -1.10.920 |
| Half fence | -2.80.811 | -1.70.881 | 47.2%36 | -5.60.637 | +9.30.452 | +2.50.830 | +27.20.070 | +2.50.818 | -2.80.822 | -2.80.811 |
| Breakable half fence | +2.80.811 | +3.90.728 | +5.60.637 | 52.8%36 | +14.80.233 | +8.00.489 | +32.80.031 | +8.10.464 | +2.80.822 | +2.80.811 |
| Low fence | -12.10.325 | -11.00.355 | -9.30.452 | -14.80.233 | 37.9%29 | -6.80.576 | +17.90.226 | -6.80.563 | -12.10.351 | -12.10.325 |
| Single wall | -5.30.646 | -4.20.706 | -2.50.830 | -8.00.489 | +6.80.576 | 44.7%38 | +24.70.094 | +0.10.996 | -5.30.666 | -5.30.646 |
| Fence and open | -30.00.046 | -28.90.049 | -27.20.070 | -32.80.031 | -17.90.226 | -24.70.094 | 20.0%15 | -24.70.088 | -30.00.053 | -30.00.046 |
| Open | -5.30.625 | -4.20.686 | -2.50.818 | -8.10.464 | +6.80.563 | -0.10.996 | +24.70.088 | 44.7%47 | -5.30.648 | -5.30.625 |
| Rectangle | -0.01.000 | +1.10.925 | +2.80.822 | -2.80.822 | +12.10.351 | +5.30.666 | +30.00.053 | +5.30.648 | 50.0%30 | +0.01.000 |
| Octagon | -0.01.000 | +1.10.920 | +2.80.811 | -2.80.811 | +12.10.325 | +5.30.646 | +30.00.046 | +5.30.625 | -0.01.000 | 50.0%38 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted210
Win rate61.9%
Widest swing-13.8 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Taka's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single wall | 72.2% | +10.3 | 0.161 | 36 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 71.4% | +9.5 | 0.448 | 14 · | |
| Full fence | 70.6% | +8.7 | 0.442 | 17 · | |
| Octagon | 69.6% | +7.7 | 0.423 | 23 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 68.0% | +6.1 | 0.504 | 25 · | |
| Open | 58.8% | -3.1 | 0.785 | 17 · | |
| Low fence | 55.0% | -6.9 | 0.504 | 20 · | |
| Rectangle | 53.3% | -8.6 | 0.478 | 15 · | |
| Fence and open | 50.0% | -11.9 | 0.621 | 4 · | |
| Half fence | 48.1% | -13.8 | 0.115 | 27 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Taka's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 6.99 on 9 df, p 0.639
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 70.6%17 | +2.60.859 | +22.40.143 | -0.80.959 | +15.60.330 | -1.60.902 | +20.60.432 | +11.80.473 | +17.30.314 | +1.00.944 |
| Breakable full fence | -2.60.859 | 68.0%25 | +19.90.148 | -3.40.824 | +13.00.371 | -4.20.722 | +18.00.482 | +9.20.542 | +14.70.354 | -1.60.907 |
| Half fence | -22.40.143 | -19.90.148 | 48.1%27 | -23.30.154 | -6.80.642 | -24.10.052 | -1.90.945 | -10.70.490 | -5.20.747 | -21.40.126 |
| Breakable half fence | +0.80.959 | +3.40.824 | +23.30.154 | 71.4%14 | +16.40.332 | -0.80.955 | +21.40.423 | +12.60.465 | +18.10.316 | +1.90.904 |
| Low fence | -15.60.330 | -13.00.371 | +6.80.642 | -16.40.332 | 55.0%20 | -17.20.192 | +5.00.855 | -3.80.815 | +1.70.922 | -14.60.324 |
| Single wall | +1.60.902 | +4.20.722 | +24.10.052 | +0.80.955 | +17.20.192 | 72.2%36 | +22.20.358 | +13.40.329 | +18.90.192 | +2.60.826 |
| Fence and open | -20.60.432 | -18.00.482 | +1.90.945 | -21.40.423 | -5.00.855 | -22.20.358 | 50.0%4 | -8.80.748 | -3.30.906 | -19.60.444 |
| Open | -11.80.473 | -9.20.542 | +10.70.490 | -12.60.465 | +3.80.815 | -13.40.329 | +8.80.748 | 58.8%17 | +5.50.755 | -10.80.481 |
| Rectangle | -17.30.314 | -14.70.354 | +5.20.747 | -18.10.316 | -1.70.922 | -18.90.192 | +3.30.906 | -5.50.755 | 53.3%15 | -16.20.311 |
| Octagon | -1.00.944 | +1.60.907 | +21.40.126 | -1.90.904 | +14.60.324 | -2.60.826 | +19.60.444 | +10.80.481 | +16.20.311 | 69.6%23 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.