Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Shun vs Wolf
Matches counted2,175
Win rate51.5%
Widest swing8.3 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Shun's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 59.9% | +8.3 | 0.020 | 177 | |
| Breakable half fence | 56.7% | +5.2 | 0.103 | 224 | |
| Breakable full fence | 55.5% | +4.0 | 0.196 | 236 | |
| Single wall | 53.6% | +2.0 | 0.533 | 209 | |
| Octagon | 51.5% | -0.0 | 0.990 | 200 | |
| Fence and open | 51.4% | -0.1 | 0.981 | 105 | |
| Low fence | 51.1% | -0.4 | 0.901 | 219 | |
| Rectangle | 50.2% | -1.3 | 0.682 | 219 | |
| Half fence | 46.5% | -5.0 | 0.135 | 202 | |
| Full fence | 46.1% | -5.4 | 0.056 | 269 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Shun's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 14.31 on 9 df, p 0.112
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 46.1%269 | -9.40.035 | -0.40.925 | -10.60.019 | -5.00.267 | -7.50.104 | -5.30.354 | -13.80.004 | -4.10.364 | -5.40.247 |
| Breakable full fence | +9.40.035 | 55.5%236 | +9.00.061 | -1.20.797 | +4.40.351 | +1.90.685 | +4.10.485 | -4.40.373 | +5.30.260 | +4.00.403 |
| Half fence | +0.40.925 | -9.00.061 | 46.5%202 | -10.20.036 | -4.60.345 | -7.10.153 | -4.90.416 | -13.40.009 | -3.70.449 | -5.00.319 |
| Breakable half fence | +10.60.019 | +1.20.797 | +10.20.036 | 56.7%224 | +5.60.241 | +3.10.516 | +5.30.371 | -3.20.520 | +6.50.172 | +5.20.284 |
| Low fence | +5.00.267 | -4.40.351 | +4.60.345 | -5.60.241 | 51.1%219 | -2.50.612 | -0.30.961 | -8.80.082 | +0.90.848 | -0.40.942 |
| Single wall | +7.50.104 | -1.90.685 | +7.10.153 | -3.10.516 | +2.50.612 | 53.6%209 | +2.20.718 | -6.30.214 | +3.40.487 | +2.10.672 |
| Fence and open | +5.30.354 | -4.10.485 | +4.90.416 | -5.30.371 | +0.30.961 | -2.20.718 | 51.4%105 | -8.50.166 | +1.20.840 | -0.10.991 |
| Open | +13.80.004 | +4.40.373 | +13.40.009 | +3.20.520 | +8.80.082 | +6.30.214 | +8.50.166 | 59.9%177 | +9.70.055 | +8.40.102 |
| Rectangle | +4.10.364 | -5.30.260 | +3.70.449 | -6.50.172 | -0.90.848 | -3.40.487 | -1.20.840 | -9.70.055 | 50.2%219 | -1.30.795 |
| Octagon | +5.40.247 | -4.00.403 | +5.00.319 | -5.20.284 | +0.40.942 | -2.10.672 | +0.10.991 | -8.40.102 | +1.30.795 | 51.5%200 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted1,970
Win rate50.7%
Widest swing8.3 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Shun's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 59.0% | +8.3 | 0.028 | 161 | |
| Breakable half fence | 56.3% | +5.6 | 0.082 | 213 | |
| Breakable full fence | 53.6% | +2.9 | 0.360 | 222 | |
| Single wall | 53.1% | +2.4 | 0.481 | 192 | |
| Octagon | 51.5% | +0.7 | 0.840 | 173 | |
| Low fence | 50.5% | -0.2 | 0.946 | 206 | |
| Fence and open | 47.7% | -3.0 | 0.567 | 88 | |
| Rectangle | 47.6% | -3.1 | 0.372 | 191 | |
| Full fence | 45.8% | -4.9 | 0.107 | 240 | |
| Half fence | 45.8% | -5.0 | 0.168 | 177 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Shun's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 13.27 on 9 df, p 0.151
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 45.8%240 | -7.80.095 | +0.10.989 | -10.50.026 | -4.70.327 | -7.30.132 | -1.90.761 | -13.20.010 | -1.80.708 | -5.60.260 |
| Breakable full fence | +7.80.095 | 53.6%222 | +7.80.120 | -2.70.567 | +3.10.519 | +0.50.922 | +5.90.350 | -5.40.293 | +6.00.227 | +2.10.670 |
| Half fence | -0.10.989 | -7.80.120 | 45.8%177 | -10.60.037 | -4.70.356 | -7.40.158 | -2.00.763 | -13.20.015 | -1.90.718 | -5.70.288 |
| Breakable half fence | +10.50.026 | +2.70.567 | +10.60.037 | 56.3%213 | +5.80.230 | +3.20.516 | +8.60.173 | -2.70.605 | +8.70.081 | +4.90.337 |
| Low fence | +4.70.327 | -3.10.519 | +4.70.356 | -5.80.230 | 50.5%206 | -2.60.598 | +2.80.665 | -8.50.104 | +2.90.572 | -1.00.852 |
| Single wall | +7.30.132 | -0.50.922 | +7.40.158 | -3.20.516 | +2.60.598 | 53.1%192 | +5.40.402 | -5.90.268 | +5.50.283 | +1.70.748 |
| Fence and open | +1.90.761 | -5.90.350 | +2.00.763 | -8.60.173 | -2.80.665 | -5.40.402 | 47.7%88 | -11.30.087 | +0.10.990 | -3.70.570 |
| Open | +13.20.010 | +5.40.293 | +13.20.015 | +2.70.605 | +8.50.104 | +5.90.268 | +11.30.087 | 59.0%161 | +11.40.033 | +7.60.165 |
| Rectangle | +1.80.708 | -6.00.227 | +1.90.718 | -8.70.081 | -2.90.572 | -5.50.283 | -0.10.990 | -11.40.033 | 47.6%191 | -3.80.469 |
| Octagon | +5.60.260 | -2.10.670 | +5.70.288 | -4.90.337 | +1.00.852 | -1.70.748 | +3.70.570 | -7.60.165 | +3.80.469 | 51.5%173 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted205
Win rate59.5%
Widest swing26.2 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Shun's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakable full fence | 85.7% | +26.2 | 0.039 | 14 · | |
| Fence and open | 70.6% | +11.1 | 0.331 | 17 · | |
| Open | 68.8% | +9.2 | 0.433 | 16 · | |
| Rectangle | 67.9% | +8.3 | 0.333 | 28 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 63.6% | +4.1 | 0.775 | 11 · | |
| Low fence | 61.5% | +2.0 | 0.878 | 13 · | |
| Single wall | 58.8% | -0.7 | 0.952 | 17 · | |
| Half fence | 52.0% | -7.5 | 0.414 | 25 · | |
| Octagon | 51.9% | -7.7 | 0.384 | 27 · | |
| Full fence | 48.3% | -11.2 | 0.183 | 29 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Shun's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 9.04 on 9 df, p 0.433
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 48.3%29 | -37.40.019 | -3.70.785 | -15.40.385 | -13.30.426 | -10.50.489 | -22.30.141 | -20.50.186 | -19.60.134 | -3.60.789 |
| Breakable full fence | +37.40.019 | 85.7%14 | +33.70.035 | +22.10.199 | +24.20.152 | +26.90.101 | +15.10.316 | +17.00.273 | +17.90.215 | +33.90.033 |
| Half fence | +3.70.785 | -33.70.035 | 52.0%25 | -11.60.517 | -9.50.575 | -6.80.663 | -18.60.228 | -16.80.288 | -15.90.239 | +0.10.991 |
| Breakable half fence | +15.40.385 | -22.10.199 | +11.60.517 | 63.6%11 | +2.10.916 | +4.80.799 | -7.00.700 | -5.10.782 | -4.20.801 | +11.80.508 |
| Low fence | +13.30.426 | -24.20.152 | +9.50.575 | -2.10.916 | 61.5%13 | +2.70.880 | -9.10.602 | -7.20.684 | -6.30.691 | +9.70.564 |
| Single wall | +10.50.489 | -26.90.101 | +6.80.663 | -4.80.799 | -2.70.880 | 58.8%17 | -11.80.473 | -9.90.554 | -9.00.539 | +7.00.651 |
| Fence and open | +22.30.141 | -15.10.316 | +18.60.228 | +7.00.700 | +9.10.602 | +11.80.473 | 70.6%17 | +1.80.909 | +2.70.848 | +18.70.218 |
| Open | +20.50.186 | -17.00.273 | +16.80.288 | +5.10.782 | +7.20.684 | +9.90.554 | -1.80.909 | 68.8%16 | +0.90.951 | +16.90.278 |
| Rectangle | +19.60.134 | -17.90.215 | +15.90.239 | +4.20.801 | +6.30.691 | +9.00.539 | -2.70.848 | -0.90.951 | 67.9%28 | +16.00.226 |
| Octagon | +3.60.789 | -33.90.033 | -0.10.991 | -11.80.508 | -9.70.564 | -7.00.651 | -18.70.218 | -16.90.278 | -16.00.226 | 51.9%27 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.