Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Shun vs Vanessa
Matches counted1,570
Win rate51.1%
Widest swing-7.8 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Shun's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 57.7% | +6.6 | 0.231 | 78 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 57.4% | +6.3 | 0.104 | 148 | |
| Rectangle | 54.9% | +3.9 | 0.336 | 142 | |
| Half fence | 53.8% | +2.7 | 0.456 | 173 | |
| Low fence | 53.6% | +2.5 | 0.537 | 140 | |
| Octagon | 50.9% | -0.2 | 0.962 | 165 | |
| Full fence | 50.3% | -0.7 | 0.850 | 147 | |
| Single wall | 46.3% | -4.8 | 0.179 | 177 | |
| Breakable full fence | 44.5% | -6.6 | 0.085 | 155 | |
| Open | 43.2% | -7.8 | 0.039 | 155 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Shun's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 13.53 on 9 df, p 0.140
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 50.3%147 | +5.80.311 | -3.40.542 | -7.10.222 | -3.20.584 | +4.00.472 | -7.30.293 | +7.10.215 | -4.60.435 | -0.60.920 |
| Breakable full fence | -5.80.311 | 44.5%155 | -9.20.095 | -12.90.025 | -9.10.120 | -1.80.741 | -13.20.058 | +1.30.819 | -10.40.073 | -6.40.253 |
| Half fence | +3.40.542 | +9.20.095 | 53.8%173 | -3.70.509 | +0.20.974 | +7.40.165 | -3.90.562 | +10.50.057 | -1.20.835 | +2.90.600 |
| Breakable half fence | +7.10.222 | +12.90.025 | +3.70.509 | 57.4%148 | +3.90.510 | +11.10.046 | -0.30.970 | +14.20.013 | +2.50.668 | +6.50.248 |
| Low fence | +3.20.584 | +9.10.120 | -0.20.974 | -3.90.510 | 53.6%140 | +7.20.200 | -4.10.558 | +10.30.076 | -1.40.819 | +2.70.643 |
| Single wall | -4.00.472 | +1.80.741 | -7.40.165 | -11.10.046 | -7.20.200 | 46.3%177 | -11.40.094 | +3.10.571 | -8.60.127 | -4.60.397 |
| Fence and open | +7.30.293 | +13.20.058 | +3.90.562 | +0.30.970 | +4.10.558 | +11.40.094 | 57.7%78 | +14.50.037 | +2.80.693 | +6.80.323 |
| Open | -7.10.215 | -1.30.819 | -10.50.057 | -14.20.013 | -10.30.076 | -3.10.571 | -14.50.037 | 43.2%155 | -11.70.044 | -7.70.169 |
| Rectangle | +4.60.435 | +10.40.073 | +1.20.835 | -2.50.668 | +1.40.819 | +8.60.127 | -2.80.693 | +11.70.044 | 54.9%142 | +4.00.482 |
| Octagon | +0.60.920 | +6.40.253 | -2.90.600 | -6.50.248 | -2.70.643 | +4.60.397 | -6.80.323 | +7.70.169 | -4.00.482 | 50.9%165 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted1,177
Win rate50.9%
Widest swing-14.1 pts
Survive correction1
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Shun's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakable half fence | 60.4% | +9.5 | 0.046 | 101 | |
| Rectangle | 60.0% | +9.1 | 0.045 | 110 | |
| Fence and open | 54.5% | +3.7 | 0.579 | 55 · | |
| Half fence | 52.9% | +2.0 | 0.616 | 138 | |
| Full fence | 52.9% | +2.0 | 0.647 | 123 | |
| Low fence | 52.0% | +1.1 | 0.821 | 102 | |
| Octagon | 51.9% | +1.0 | 0.834 | 108 | |
| Single wall | 45.0% | -5.9 | 0.137 | 140 | |
| Breakable full fence | 42.9% | -8.0 | 0.074 | 112 | |
| Open | 36.8% | -14.1 | 0.002 | 106 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Shun's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 21.32 on 9 df, p 0.011
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 52.9%123 | +10.00.126 | -0.10.993 | -7.50.257 | +0.90.895 | +7.80.204 | -1.70.834 | +16.10.015 | -7.20.272 | +1.00.880 |
| Breakable full fence | -10.00.126 | 42.9%112 | -10.00.114 | -17.50.011 | -9.10.183 | -2.10.733 | -11.70.155 | +6.10.361 | -17.10.011 | -9.00.182 |
| Half fence | +0.10.993 | +10.00.114 | 52.9%138 | -7.50.249 | +0.90.886 | +7.90.188 | -1.60.836 | +16.10.012 | -7.10.263 | +1.10.870 |
| Breakable half fence | +7.50.257 | +17.50.011 | +7.50.249 | 60.4%101 | +8.40.226 | +15.40.018 | +5.80.479 | +23.6<0.001 | +0.40.953 | +8.60.214 |
| Low fence | -0.90.895 | +9.10.183 | -0.90.886 | -8.40.226 | 52.0%102 | +7.00.284 | -2.60.757 | +15.20.028 | -8.00.239 | +0.10.987 |
| Single wall | -7.80.204 | +2.10.733 | -7.90.188 | -15.40.018 | -7.00.284 | 45.0%140 | -9.60.230 | +8.20.196 | -15.00.018 | -6.80.284 |
| Fence and open | +1.70.834 | +11.70.155 | +1.60.836 | -5.80.479 | +2.60.757 | +9.60.230 | 54.5%55 | +17.80.031 | -5.50.503 | +2.70.745 |
| Open | -16.10.015 | -6.10.361 | -16.10.012 | -23.6<0.001 | -15.20.028 | -8.20.196 | -17.80.031 | 36.8%106 | -23.2<0.001 | -15.10.027 |
| Rectangle | +7.20.272 | +17.10.011 | +7.10.263 | -0.40.953 | +8.00.239 | +15.00.018 | +5.50.503 | +23.2<0.001 | 60.0%110 | +8.20.226 |
| Octagon | -1.00.880 | +9.00.182 | -1.10.870 | -8.60.214 | -0.10.987 | +6.80.284 | -2.70.745 | +15.10.027 | -8.20.226 | 51.9%108 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted393
Win rate51.6%
Widest swing-14.2 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Shun's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 65.2% | +13.6 | 0.180 | 23 · | |
| Low fence | 57.9% | +6.2 | 0.418 | 38 · | |
| Half fence | 57.1% | +5.5 | 0.496 | 35 · | |
| Open | 57.1% | +5.5 | 0.411 | 49 · | |
| Single wall | 51.4% | -0.3 | 0.969 | 37 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 51.1% | -0.6 | 0.931 | 47 · | |
| Octagon | 49.1% | -2.5 | 0.679 | 57 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 48.8% | -2.8 | 0.695 | 43 · | |
| Full fence | 37.5% | -14.2 | 0.152 | 24 · | |
| Rectangle | 37.5% | -14.2 | 0.095 | 32 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Shun's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 8.07 on 9 df, p 0.527
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 37.5%24 | -11.30.371 | -19.60.138 | -13.60.278 | -20.40.118 | -13.80.289 | -27.70.057 | -19.60.115 | +0.01.000 | -11.60.338 |
| Breakable full fence | +11.30.371 | 48.8%43 | -8.30.465 | -2.20.833 | -9.10.415 | -2.50.823 | -16.40.203 | -8.30.426 | +11.30.328 | -0.30.977 |
| Half fence | +19.60.138 | +8.30.465 | 57.1%35 | +6.10.585 | -0.80.948 | +5.80.622 | -8.10.539 | +0.01.000 | +19.60.108 | +8.00.455 |
| Breakable half fence | +13.60.278 | +2.20.833 | -6.10.585 | 51.1%47 | -6.80.530 | -0.30.979 | -14.20.263 | -6.10.550 | +13.60.235 | +1.90.844 |
| Low fence | +20.40.118 | +9.10.415 | +0.80.948 | +6.80.530 | 57.9%38 | +6.50.569 | -7.30.570 | +0.80.944 | +20.40.089 | +8.80.402 |
| Single wall | +13.80.289 | +2.50.823 | -5.80.622 | +0.30.979 | -6.50.569 | 51.4%37 | -13.90.292 | -5.80.593 | +13.80.249 | +2.20.833 |
| Fence and open | +27.70.057 | +16.40.203 | +8.10.539 | +14.20.263 | +7.30.570 | +13.90.292 | 65.2%23 | +8.10.515 | +27.70.043 | +16.10.191 |
| Open | +19.60.115 | +8.30.426 | -0.01.000 | +6.10.550 | -0.80.944 | +5.80.593 | -8.10.515 | 57.1%49 | +19.60.084 | +8.00.410 |
| Rectangle | -0.01.000 | -11.30.328 | -19.60.108 | -13.60.235 | -20.40.089 | -13.80.249 | -27.70.043 | -19.60.084 | 37.5%32 | -11.60.290 |
| Octagon | +11.60.338 | +0.30.977 | -8.00.455 | -1.90.844 | -8.80.402 | -2.20.833 | -16.10.191 | -8.00.410 | +11.60.290 | 49.1%57 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.