Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Shun vs Taka
Matches counted786
Win rate45.9%
Widest swing12.3 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Shun's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 58.2% | +12.3 | 0.035 | 67 · | |
| Half fence | 53.7% | +7.7 | 0.308 | 41 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 50.5% | +4.6 | 0.324 | 101 | |
| Low fence | 50.0% | +4.1 | 0.534 | 54 · | |
| Single wall | 47.1% | +1.1 | 0.825 | 85 | |
| Rectangle | 44.8% | -1.1 | 0.827 | 87 | |
| Open | 44.7% | -1.2 | 0.796 | 94 | |
| Octagon | 41.7% | -4.3 | 0.407 | 84 | |
| Breakable full fence | 41.0% | -4.9 | 0.360 | 78 · | |
| Fence and open | 36.6% | -9.3 | 0.218 | 41 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Shun's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 9.01 on 9 df, p 0.436
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 58.2%67 | +17.20.039 | +4.50.643 | +7.70.326 | +8.20.367 | +11.20.172 | +21.60.029 | +13.50.091 | +13.40.100 | +16.50.043 |
| Breakable full fence | -17.20.039 | 41.0%78 | -12.60.188 | -9.50.208 | -9.00.308 | -6.00.438 | +4.40.638 | -3.60.630 | -3.80.622 | -0.60.934 |
| Half fence | -4.50.643 | +12.60.188 | 53.7%41 | +3.20.732 | +3.70.724 | +6.60.488 | +17.10.120 | +9.00.337 | +8.80.351 | +12.00.206 |
| Breakable half fence | -7.70.326 | +9.50.208 | -3.20.732 | 50.5%101 | +0.50.953 | +3.40.640 | +13.90.132 | +5.80.417 | +5.70.438 | +8.80.231 |
| Low fence | -8.20.367 | +9.00.308 | -3.70.724 | -0.50.953 | 50.0%54 | +2.90.735 | +13.40.192 | +5.30.532 | +5.20.550 | +8.30.337 |
| Single wall | -11.20.172 | +6.00.438 | -6.60.488 | -3.40.640 | -2.90.735 | 47.1%85 | +10.50.267 | +2.40.750 | +2.20.769 | +5.40.481 |
| Fence and open | -21.60.029 | -4.40.638 | -17.10.120 | -13.90.132 | -13.40.192 | -10.50.267 | 36.6%41 | -8.10.381 | -8.20.378 | -5.10.586 |
| Open | -13.50.091 | +3.60.630 | -9.00.337 | -5.80.417 | -5.30.532 | -2.40.750 | +8.10.381 | 44.7%94 | -0.10.984 | +3.00.685 |
| Rectangle | -13.40.100 | +3.80.622 | -8.80.351 | -5.70.438 | -5.20.550 | -2.20.769 | +8.20.378 | +0.10.984 | 44.8%87 | +3.20.677 |
| Octagon | -16.50.043 | +0.60.934 | -12.00.206 | -8.80.231 | -8.30.337 | -5.40.481 | +5.10.586 | -3.00.685 | -3.20.677 | 41.7%84 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted582
Win rate46.6%
Widest swing11.5 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Shun's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Half fence | 58.1% | +11.5 | 0.187 | 31 · | |
| Full fence | 56.1% | +9.5 | 0.204 | 41 · | |
| Single wall | 51.6% | +5.0 | 0.399 | 62 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 51.3% | +4.8 | 0.373 | 76 · | |
| Low fence | 48.7% | +2.2 | 0.780 | 39 · | |
| Octagon | 47.8% | +1.2 | 0.835 | 67 · | |
| Fence and open | 44.0% | -2.6 | 0.793 | 25 · | |
| Open | 42.2% | -4.3 | 0.437 | 71 · | |
| Rectangle | 42.2% | -4.3 | 0.437 | 71 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 40.0% | -6.6 | 0.305 | 55 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Shun's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 6.42 on 9 df, p 0.697
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 56.1%41 | +16.10.118 | -2.00.867 | +4.80.621 | +7.40.509 | +4.50.655 | +12.10.340 | +13.80.157 | +13.80.157 | +8.30.400 |
| Breakable full fence | -16.10.118 | 40.0%55 | -18.10.107 | -11.30.200 | -8.70.401 | -11.60.209 | -4.00.736 | -2.20.799 | -2.20.799 | -7.80.390 |
| Half fence | +2.00.867 | +18.10.107 | 58.1%31 | +6.70.526 | +9.30.436 | +6.50.556 | +14.10.295 | +15.80.141 | +15.80.141 | +10.30.343 |
| Breakable half fence | -4.80.621 | +11.30.200 | -6.70.526 | 51.3%76 | +2.60.792 | -0.30.972 | +7.30.526 | +9.10.271 | +9.10.271 | +3.60.671 |
| Low fence | -7.40.509 | +8.70.401 | -9.30.436 | -2.60.792 | 48.7%39 | -2.90.777 | +4.70.712 | +6.50.514 | +6.50.514 | +1.00.924 |
| Single wall | -4.50.655 | +11.60.209 | -6.50.556 | +0.30.972 | +2.90.777 | 51.6%62 | +7.60.520 | +9.40.280 | +9.40.280 | +3.90.662 |
| Fence and open | -12.10.340 | +4.00.736 | -14.10.295 | -7.30.526 | -4.70.712 | -7.60.520 | 44.0%25 | +1.80.879 | +1.80.879 | -3.80.748 |
| Open | -13.80.157 | +2.20.799 | -15.80.141 | -9.10.271 | -6.50.514 | -9.40.280 | -1.80.879 | 42.2%71 | +0.01.000 | -5.50.516 |
| Rectangle | -13.80.157 | +2.20.799 | -15.80.141 | -9.10.271 | -6.50.514 | -9.40.280 | -1.80.879 | -0.01.000 | 42.2%71 | -5.50.516 |
| Octagon | -8.30.400 | +7.80.390 | -10.30.343 | -3.60.671 | -1.00.924 | -3.90.662 | +3.80.748 | +5.50.516 | +5.50.516 | 47.8%67 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted204
Win rate44.1%
Widest swing-26.5 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Shun's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 61.5% | +17.4 | 0.055 | 26 · | |
| Rectangle | 56.2% | +12.1 | 0.309 | 16 · | |
| Low fence | 53.3% | +9.2 | 0.455 | 15 · | |
| Open | 52.2% | +8.1 | 0.409 | 23 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 48.0% | +3.9 | 0.676 | 25 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 43.5% | -0.6 | 0.948 | 23 · | |
| Half fence | 40.0% | -4.1 | 0.788 | 10 · | |
| Single wall | 34.8% | -9.3 | 0.338 | 23 · | |
| Fence and open | 25.0% | -19.1 | 0.109 | 16 · | |
| Octagon | 17.6% | -26.5 | 0.022 | 17 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Shun's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 13.50 on 9 df, p 0.141
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 61.5%26 | +18.10.206 | +21.50.244 | +13.50.331 | +8.20.607 | +26.80.062 | +36.50.021 | +9.40.509 | +5.30.735 | +43.90.005 |
| Breakable full fence | -18.10.206 | 43.5%23 | +3.50.853 | -4.50.753 | -9.80.552 | +8.70.546 | +18.50.237 | -8.70.555 | -12.80.433 | +25.80.085 |
| Half fence | -21.50.244 | -3.50.853 | 40.0%10 | -8.00.668 | -13.30.513 | +5.20.775 | +15.00.420 | -12.20.520 | -16.20.420 | +22.40.201 |
| Breakable half fence | -13.50.331 | +4.50.753 | +8.00.668 | 48.0%25 | -5.30.744 | +13.20.353 | +23.00.141 | -4.20.773 | -8.20.606 | +30.40.044 |
| Low fence | -8.20.607 | +9.80.552 | +13.30.513 | +5.30.744 | 53.3%15 | +18.60.258 | +28.30.106 | +1.20.944 | -2.90.870 | +35.70.034 |
| Single wall | -26.80.062 | -8.70.546 | -5.20.775 | -13.20.353 | -18.60.258 | 34.8%23 | +9.80.515 | -17.40.234 | -21.50.184 | +17.10.230 |
| Fence and open | -36.50.021 | -18.50.237 | -15.00.420 | -23.00.141 | -28.30.106 | -9.80.515 | 25.0%16 | -27.20.090 | -31.20.072 | +7.30.606 |
| Open | -9.40.509 | +8.70.555 | +12.20.520 | +4.20.773 | -1.20.944 | +17.40.234 | +27.20.090 | 52.2%23 | -4.10.802 | +34.50.026 |
| Rectangle | -5.30.735 | +12.80.433 | +16.20.420 | +8.20.606 | +2.90.870 | +21.50.184 | +31.20.072 | +4.10.802 | 56.2%16 | +38.60.021 |
| Octagon | -43.90.005 | -25.80.085 | -22.40.201 | -30.40.044 | -35.70.034 | -17.10.230 | -7.30.606 | -34.50.026 | -38.60.021 | 17.6%17 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.