Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Sarah vs Wolf
Matches counted2,370
Win rate52.1%
Widest swing-8.6 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Sarah's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 57.0% | +4.9 | 0.299 | 107 | |
| Half fence | 57.0% | +4.8 | 0.122 | 230 | |
| Octagon | 56.1% | +4.0 | 0.197 | 239 | |
| Low fence | 53.3% | +1.2 | 0.710 | 210 | |
| Rectangle | 52.8% | +0.7 | 0.795 | 282 | |
| Breakable full fence | 52.4% | +0.3 | 0.923 | 250 | |
| Breakable half fence | 51.2% | -0.9 | 0.764 | 248 | |
| Full fence | 49.8% | -2.3 | 0.456 | 231 | |
| Open | 49.1% | -3.0 | 0.285 | 279 | |
| Single wall | 43.5% | -8.6 | 0.009 | 209 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Sarah's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 12.61 on 9 df, p 0.181
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 49.8%231 | -2.60.566 | -7.20.123 | -1.40.755 | -3.50.456 | +6.20.190 | -7.20.216 | +0.70.879 | -3.10.491 | -6.30.172 |
| Breakable full fence | +2.60.566 | 52.4%250 | -4.60.317 | +1.20.790 | -0.90.842 | +8.90.059 | -4.60.424 | +3.30.449 | -0.40.920 | -3.70.416 |
| Half fence | +7.20.123 | +4.60.317 | 57.0%230 | +5.80.208 | +3.60.445 | +13.40.005 | -0.10.993 | +7.90.077 | +4.10.352 | +0.90.846 |
| Breakable half fence | +1.40.755 | -1.20.790 | -5.80.208 | 51.2%248 | -2.10.650 | +7.70.102 | -5.80.315 | +2.10.629 | -1.60.708 | -4.90.283 |
| Low fence | +3.50.456 | +0.90.842 | -3.60.445 | +2.10.650 | 53.3%210 | +9.80.045 | -3.70.534 | +4.20.354 | +0.50.913 | -2.70.561 |
| Single wall | -6.20.190 | -8.90.059 | -13.40.005 | -7.70.102 | -9.80.045 | 43.5%209 | -13.50.023 | -5.60.223 | -9.30.042 | -12.50.008 |
| Fence and open | +7.20.216 | +4.60.424 | +0.10.993 | +5.80.315 | +3.70.534 | +13.50.023 | 57.0%107 | +7.90.164 | +4.20.461 | +0.90.870 |
| Open | -0.70.879 | -3.30.449 | -7.90.077 | -2.10.629 | -4.20.354 | +5.60.223 | -7.90.164 | 49.1%279 | -3.70.377 | -7.00.114 |
| Rectangle | +3.10.491 | +0.40.920 | -4.10.352 | +1.60.708 | -0.50.913 | +9.30.042 | -4.20.461 | +3.70.377 | 52.8%282 | -3.20.461 |
| Octagon | +6.30.172 | +3.70.416 | -0.90.846 | +4.90.283 | +2.70.561 | +12.50.008 | -0.90.870 | +7.00.114 | +3.20.461 | 56.1%239 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted2,175
Win rate52.3%
Widest swing-9.3 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Sarah's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 57.0% | +4.7 | 0.333 | 100 | |
| Half fence | 56.9% | +4.6 | 0.160 | 211 | |
| Octagon | 55.9% | +3.6 | 0.255 | 220 | |
| Breakable full fence | 53.8% | +1.5 | 0.628 | 223 | |
| Rectangle | 53.1% | +0.9 | 0.767 | 254 | |
| Low fence | 51.9% | -0.4 | 0.903 | 189 | |
| Breakable half fence | 51.8% | -0.5 | 0.881 | 222 | |
| Full fence | 50.5% | -1.8 | 0.566 | 222 | |
| Open | 49.4% | -2.8 | 0.320 | 269 | |
| Single wall | 43.0% | -9.3 | 0.008 | 186 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Sarah's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 11.71 on 9 df, p 0.230
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 50.5%222 | -3.40.478 | -6.40.180 | -1.40.776 | -1.40.777 | +7.40.134 | -6.50.276 | +1.00.824 | -2.70.557 | -5.50.250 |
| Breakable full fence | +3.40.478 | 53.8%223 | -3.10.522 | +2.00.671 | +2.00.691 | +10.80.030 | -3.20.595 | +4.40.334 | +0.70.885 | -2.10.657 |
| Half fence | +6.40.180 | +3.10.522 | 56.9%211 | +5.10.290 | +5.00.314 | +13.90.006 | -0.10.983 | +7.40.106 | +3.70.422 | +1.00.840 |
| Breakable half fence | +1.40.776 | -2.00.671 | -5.10.290 | 51.8%222 | -0.10.992 | +8.80.077 | -5.20.387 | +2.40.603 | -1.40.769 | -4.10.386 |
| Low fence | +1.40.777 | -2.00.691 | -5.00.314 | +0.10.992 | 51.9%189 | +8.80.086 | -5.20.404 | +2.40.612 | -1.30.787 | -4.10.412 |
| Single wall | -7.40.134 | -10.80.030 | -13.90.006 | -8.80.077 | -8.80.086 | 43.0%186 | -14.00.024 | -6.40.176 | -10.10.036 | -12.90.010 |
| Fence and open | +6.50.276 | +3.20.595 | +0.10.983 | +5.20.387 | +5.20.404 | +14.00.024 | 57.0%100 | +7.60.197 | +3.90.513 | +1.10.855 |
| Open | -1.00.824 | -4.40.334 | -7.40.106 | -2.40.603 | -2.40.612 | +6.40.176 | -7.60.197 | 49.4%269 | -3.70.397 | -6.50.154 |
| Rectangle | +2.70.557 | -0.70.885 | -3.70.422 | +1.40.769 | +1.30.787 | +10.10.036 | -3.90.513 | +3.70.397 | 53.1%254 | -2.80.547 |
| Octagon | +5.50.250 | +2.10.657 | -1.00.840 | +4.10.386 | +4.10.412 | +12.90.010 | -1.10.855 | +6.50.154 | +2.80.547 | 55.9%220 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted195
Win rate50.3%
Widest swing-16.9 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Sarah's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low fence | 66.7% | +16.4 | 0.111 | 21 · | |
| Half fence | 57.9% | +7.6 | 0.483 | 19 · | |
| Octagon | 57.9% | +7.6 | 0.483 | 19 · | |
| Fence and open | 57.1% | +6.9 | 0.711 | 7 · | |
| Rectangle | 50.0% | -0.3 | 0.977 | 28 · | |
| Single wall | 47.8% | -2.4 | 0.804 | 23 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 46.1% | -4.1 | 0.653 | 26 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 40.7% | -9.5 | 0.287 | 27 · | |
| Open | 40.0% | -10.3 | 0.505 | 10 · | |
| Full fence | 33.3% | -16.9 | 0.298 | 9 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Sarah's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 5.94 on 9 df, p 0.746
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 33.3%9 | -7.40.693 | -24.60.225 | -12.80.503 | -33.30.091 | -14.50.457 | -23.80.341 | -6.70.764 | -16.70.383 | -24.60.225 |
| Breakable full fence | +7.40.693 | 40.7%27 | -17.10.251 | -5.40.691 | -25.90.074 | -7.10.615 | -16.40.436 | +0.70.967 | -9.30.491 | -17.10.251 |
| Half fence | +24.60.225 | +17.10.251 | 57.9%19 | +11.70.436 | -8.80.567 | +10.10.516 | +0.80.973 | +17.90.359 | +7.90.595 | +0.01.000 |
| Breakable half fence | +12.80.503 | +5.40.691 | -11.70.436 | 46.1%26 | -20.50.160 | -1.70.907 | -11.00.606 | +6.20.739 | -3.90.777 | -11.70.436 |
| Low fence | +33.30.091 | +25.90.074 | +8.80.567 | +20.50.160 | 66.7%21 | +18.80.208 | +9.50.649 | +26.70.160 | +16.70.243 | +8.80.567 |
| Single wall | +14.50.457 | +7.10.615 | -10.10.516 | +1.70.907 | -18.80.208 | 47.8%23 | -9.30.666 | +7.80.678 | -2.20.877 | -10.10.516 |
| Fence and open | +23.80.341 | +16.40.436 | -0.80.973 | +11.00.606 | -9.50.649 | +9.30.666 | 57.1%7 | +17.10.486 | +7.10.735 | -0.80.973 |
| Open | +6.70.764 | -0.70.967 | -17.90.359 | -6.20.739 | -26.70.160 | -7.80.678 | -17.10.486 | 40.0%10 | -10.00.587 | -17.90.359 |
| Rectangle | +16.70.383 | +9.30.491 | -7.90.595 | +3.90.777 | -16.70.243 | +2.20.877 | -7.10.735 | +10.00.587 | 50.0%28 | -7.90.595 |
| Octagon | +24.60.225 | +17.10.251 | -0.01.000 | +11.70.436 | -8.80.567 | +10.10.516 | +0.80.973 | +17.90.359 | +7.90.595 | 57.9%19 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.