Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Pai vs Wolf
Matches counted2,179
Win rate51.6%
Widest swing3.0 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Pai's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 54.6% | +3.0 | 0.516 | 108 | |
| Open | 54.0% | +2.4 | 0.401 | 261 | |
| Breakable full fence | 53.0% | +1.4 | 0.648 | 234 | |
| Octagon | 52.2% | +0.7 | 0.845 | 201 | |
| Single wall | 51.3% | -0.2 | 0.944 | 187 | |
| Low fence | 51.0% | -0.5 | 0.863 | 237 | |
| Breakable half fence | 50.9% | -0.7 | 0.842 | 214 | |
| Full fence | 50.0% | -1.6 | 0.644 | 194 | |
| Half fence | 49.6% | -2.0 | 0.516 | 232 | |
| Rectangle | 48.8% | -2.8 | 0.398 | 209 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Pai's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 2.52 on 9 df, p 0.980
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 50.0%194 | -3.00.538 | +0.40.929 | -0.90.850 | -1.10.827 | -1.30.794 | -4.60.440 | -4.00.396 | +1.20.810 | -2.20.656 |
| Breakable full fence | +3.00.538 | 53.0%234 | +3.40.460 | +2.10.663 | +1.90.674 | +1.60.736 | -1.60.778 | -1.00.818 | +4.20.379 | +0.80.875 |
| Half fence | -0.40.929 | -3.40.460 | 49.6%232 | -1.40.773 | -1.50.748 | -1.80.719 | -5.10.385 | -4.50.323 | +0.80.873 | -2.70.579 |
| Breakable half fence | +0.90.850 | -2.10.663 | +1.40.773 | 50.9%214 | -0.10.980 | -0.40.936 | -3.70.531 | -3.10.502 | +2.10.661 | -1.30.790 |
| Low fence | +1.10.827 | -1.90.674 | +1.50.748 | +0.10.980 | 51.0%237 | -0.30.954 | -3.60.538 | -3.00.508 | +2.20.635 | -1.20.805 |
| Single wall | +1.30.794 | -1.60.736 | +1.80.719 | +0.40.936 | +0.30.954 | 51.3%187 | -3.30.585 | -2.70.574 | +2.50.615 | -0.90.859 |
| Fence and open | +4.60.440 | +1.60.778 | +5.10.385 | +3.70.531 | +3.60.538 | +3.30.585 | 54.6%108 | +0.60.915 | +5.80.325 | +2.40.688 |
| Open | +4.00.396 | +1.00.818 | +4.50.323 | +3.10.502 | +3.00.508 | +2.70.574 | -0.60.915 | 54.0%261 | +5.20.261 | +1.80.703 |
| Rectangle | -1.20.810 | -4.20.379 | -0.80.873 | -2.10.661 | -2.20.635 | -2.50.615 | -5.80.325 | -5.20.261 | 48.8%209 | -3.40.487 |
| Octagon | +2.20.656 | -0.80.875 | +2.70.579 | +1.30.790 | +1.20.805 | +0.90.859 | -2.40.688 | -1.80.703 | +3.40.487 | 52.2%201 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted2,009
Win rate52.2%
Widest swing-3.7 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Pai's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 55.1% | +2.9 | 0.331 | 247 | |
| Fence and open | 54.0% | +1.8 | 0.706 | 100 | |
| Breakable full fence | 53.5% | +1.3 | 0.681 | 215 | |
| Breakable half fence | 52.5% | +0.4 | 0.909 | 196 | |
| Octagon | 52.4% | +0.2 | 0.945 | 187 | |
| Rectangle | 51.8% | -0.3 | 0.923 | 191 | |
| Low fence | 51.4% | -0.8 | 0.801 | 220 | |
| Single wall | 51.2% | -1.0 | 0.796 | 166 | |
| Half fence | 50.0% | -2.2 | 0.491 | 224 | |
| Full fence | 48.5% | -3.7 | 0.322 | 167 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Pai's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 2.57 on 9 df, p 0.979
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 48.5%167 | -5.00.334 | -1.50.770 | -4.00.442 | -2.90.577 | -2.70.622 | -5.50.385 | -6.60.190 | -3.30.530 | -3.90.463 |
| Breakable full fence | +5.00.334 | 53.5%215 | +3.50.465 | +0.90.849 | +2.10.657 | +2.30.658 | -0.50.932 | -1.60.735 | +1.70.739 | +1.10.828 |
| Half fence | +1.50.770 | -3.50.465 | 50.0%224 | -2.50.602 | -1.40.774 | -1.20.814 | -4.00.506 | -5.10.272 | -1.80.710 | -2.40.627 |
| Breakable half fence | +4.00.442 | -0.90.849 | +2.50.602 | 52.5%196 | +1.20.809 | +1.40.798 | -1.40.813 | -2.50.599 | +0.70.887 | +0.10.977 |
| Low fence | +2.90.577 | -2.10.657 | +1.40.774 | -1.20.809 | 51.4%220 | +0.20.975 | -2.60.662 | -3.70.424 | -0.50.924 | -1.10.834 |
| Single wall | +2.70.622 | -2.30.658 | +1.20.814 | -1.40.798 | -0.20.975 | 51.2%166 | -2.80.658 | -3.90.441 | -0.60.906 | -1.20.822 |
| Fence and open | +5.50.385 | +0.50.932 | +4.00.506 | +1.40.813 | +2.60.662 | +2.80.658 | 54.0%100 | -1.10.857 | +2.20.725 | +1.60.797 |
| Open | +6.60.190 | +1.60.735 | +5.10.272 | +2.50.599 | +3.70.424 | +3.90.441 | +1.10.857 | 55.1%247 | +3.20.502 | +2.60.583 |
| Rectangle | +3.30.530 | -1.70.739 | +1.80.710 | -0.70.887 | +0.50.924 | +0.60.906 | -2.20.725 | -3.20.502 | 51.8%191 | -0.60.911 |
| Octagon | +3.90.463 | -1.10.828 | +2.40.627 | -0.10.977 | +1.10.834 | +1.20.822 | -1.60.797 | -2.60.583 | +0.60.911 | 52.4%187 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted170
Win rate44.7%
Widest swing-28.0 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Pai's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 62.5% | +17.8 | 0.300 | 8 · | |
| Full fence | 59.3% | +14.6 | 0.097 | 27 · | |
| Single wall | 52.4% | +7.7 | 0.450 | 21 · | |
| Octagon | 50.0% | +5.3 | 0.677 | 14 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 47.4% | +2.7 | 0.804 | 19 · | |
| Low fence | 47.1% | +2.4 | 0.837 | 17 · | |
| Half fence | 37.5% | -7.2 | 0.675 | 8 · | |
| Open | 35.7% | -9.0 | 0.480 | 14 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 33.3% | -11.4 | 0.305 | 18 · | |
| Rectangle | 16.7% | -28.0 | 0.011 | 18 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Pai's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 11.39 on 9 df, p 0.250
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 59.3%27 | +11.90.425 | +21.80.278 | +25.90.088 | +12.20.429 | +6.90.634 | -3.20.869 | +23.60.153 | +42.60.005 | +9.30.571 |
| Breakable full fence | -11.90.425 | 47.4%19 | +9.90.637 | +14.00.385 | +0.30.985 | -5.00.752 | -15.10.472 | +11.70.503 | +30.70.046 | -2.60.881 |
| Half fence | -21.80.278 | -9.90.637 | 37.5%8 | +4.20.837 | -9.60.653 | -14.90.474 | -25.00.317 | +1.80.933 | +20.80.245 | -12.50.571 |
| Breakable half fence | -25.90.088 | -14.00.385 | -4.20.837 | 33.3%18 | -13.70.407 | -19.10.232 | -29.20.165 | -2.40.888 | +16.70.248 | -16.70.341 |
| Low fence | -12.20.429 | -0.30.985 | +9.60.653 | +13.70.407 | 47.1%17 | -5.30.744 | -15.40.471 | +11.30.524 | +30.40.053 | -2.90.870 |
| Single wall | -6.90.634 | +5.00.752 | +14.90.474 | +19.10.232 | +5.30.744 | 52.4%21 | -10.10.624 | +16.70.332 | +35.70.020 | +2.40.890 |
| Fence and open | +3.20.869 | +15.10.472 | +25.00.317 | +29.20.165 | +15.40.471 | +10.10.624 | 62.5%8 | +26.80.225 | +45.80.019 | +12.50.571 |
| Open | -23.60.153 | -11.70.503 | -1.80.933 | +2.40.888 | -11.30.524 | -16.70.332 | -26.80.225 | 35.7%14 | +19.00.217 | -14.30.445 |
| Rectangle | -42.60.005 | -30.70.046 | -20.80.245 | -16.70.248 | -30.40.053 | -35.70.020 | -45.80.019 | -19.00.217 | 16.7%18 | -33.30.044 |
| Octagon | -9.30.571 | +2.60.881 | +12.50.571 | +16.70.341 | +2.90.870 | -2.40.890 | -12.50.571 | +14.30.445 | +33.30.044 | 50.0%14 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.