Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Pai vs Vanessa
Matches counted1,302
Win rate51.7%
Widest swing7.5 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Pai's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Half fence | 59.2% | +7.5 | 0.070 | 130 | |
| Low fence | 55.1% | +3.5 | 0.394 | 136 | |
| Single wall | 54.1% | +2.4 | 0.595 | 109 | |
| Fence and open | 53.9% | +2.2 | 0.784 | 39 · | |
| Octagon | 52.7% | +1.0 | 0.827 | 112 | |
| Breakable full fence | 52.3% | +0.6 | 0.880 | 155 | |
| Open | 52.1% | +0.4 | 0.931 | 121 | |
| Breakable half fence | 49.3% | -2.4 | 0.542 | 146 | |
| Rectangle | 47.3% | -4.4 | 0.292 | 131 | |
| Full fence | 46.7% | -5.0 | 0.218 | 137 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Pai's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 6.64 on 9 df, p 0.675
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 46.7%137 | -5.50.344 | -12.50.041 | -2.60.662 | -8.40.164 | -7.40.248 | -7.10.432 | -5.30.391 | -0.60.920 | -6.00.349 |
| Breakable full fence | +5.50.344 | 52.3%155 | -7.00.238 | +2.90.610 | -2.90.622 | -1.90.764 | -1.60.859 | +0.20.975 | +4.90.406 | -0.40.946 |
| Half fence | +12.50.041 | +7.00.238 | 59.2%130 | +9.90.099 | +4.10.501 | +5.10.428 | +5.40.550 | +7.20.253 | +11.90.054 | +6.50.306 |
| Breakable half fence | +2.60.662 | -2.90.610 | -9.90.099 | 49.3%146 | -5.80.327 | -4.80.447 | -4.50.615 | -2.80.654 | +2.00.741 | -3.40.592 |
| Low fence | +8.40.164 | +2.90.622 | -4.10.501 | +5.80.327 | 55.1%136 | +1.00.874 | +1.30.886 | +3.10.621 | +7.80.201 | +2.50.698 |
| Single wall | +7.40.248 | +1.90.764 | -5.10.428 | +4.80.447 | -1.00.874 | 54.1%109 | +0.30.976 | +2.10.754 | +6.80.294 | +1.40.829 |
| Fence and open | +7.10.432 | +1.60.859 | -5.40.550 | +4.50.615 | -1.30.886 | -0.30.976 | 53.9%39 | +1.80.847 | +6.50.475 | +1.20.900 |
| Open | +5.30.391 | -0.20.975 | -7.20.253 | +2.80.654 | -3.10.621 | -2.10.754 | -1.80.847 | 52.1%121 | +4.70.452 | -0.60.925 |
| Rectangle | +0.60.920 | -4.90.406 | -11.90.054 | -2.00.741 | -7.80.201 | -6.80.294 | -6.50.475 | -4.70.452 | 47.3%131 | -5.30.406 |
| Octagon | +6.00.349 | +0.40.946 | -6.50.306 | +3.40.592 | -2.50.698 | -1.40.829 | -1.20.900 | +0.60.925 | +5.30.406 | 52.7%112 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted1,079
Win rate51.2%
Widest swing-7.3 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Pai's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Half fence | 58.1% | +6.9 | 0.134 | 105 | |
| Single wall | 54.8% | +3.7 | 0.458 | 93 | |
| Fence and open | 54.2% | +3.0 | 0.766 | 24 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 53.0% | +1.9 | 0.669 | 115 | |
| Low fence | 52.0% | +0.8 | 0.841 | 125 | |
| Open | 51.9% | +0.8 | 0.870 | 104 | |
| Octagon | 51.0% | -0.2 | 0.973 | 100 | |
| Breakable half fence | 50.9% | -0.3 | 0.943 | 118 | |
| Rectangle | 49.0% | -2.1 | 0.650 | 102 | |
| Full fence | 43.9% | -7.3 | 0.099 | 114 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Pai's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 5.38 on 9 df, p 0.800
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 43.9%114 | -9.20.164 | -14.20.035 | -7.00.287 | -8.10.208 | -11.00.116 | -10.30.357 | -8.10.234 | -5.20.448 | -7.10.297 |
| Breakable full fence | +9.20.164 | 53.0%115 | -5.10.451 | +2.20.737 | +1.00.872 | -1.80.796 | -1.10.920 | +1.10.868 | +4.00.554 | +2.00.765 |
| Half fence | +14.20.035 | +5.10.451 | 58.1%105 | +7.20.278 | +6.10.355 | +3.30.645 | +3.90.726 | +6.20.370 | +9.10.191 | +7.10.308 |
| Breakable half fence | +7.00.287 | -2.20.737 | -7.20.278 | 50.9%118 | -1.10.857 | -4.00.564 | -3.30.767 | -1.10.873 | +1.80.787 | -0.10.982 |
| Low fence | +8.10.208 | -1.00.872 | -6.10.355 | +1.10.857 | 52.0%125 | -2.80.678 | -2.20.846 | +0.10.991 | +3.00.655 | +1.00.881 |
| Single wall | +11.00.116 | +1.80.796 | -3.30.645 | +4.00.564 | +2.80.678 | 54.8%93 | +0.70.953 | +2.90.682 | +5.80.417 | +3.80.593 |
| Fence and open | +10.30.357 | +1.10.920 | -3.90.726 | +3.30.767 | +2.20.846 | -0.70.953 | 54.2%24 | +2.20.843 | +5.20.650 | +3.20.780 |
| Open | +8.10.234 | -1.10.868 | -6.20.370 | +1.10.873 | -0.10.991 | -2.90.682 | -2.20.843 | 51.9%104 | +2.90.677 | +0.90.895 |
| Rectangle | +5.20.448 | -4.00.554 | -9.10.191 | -1.80.787 | -3.00.655 | -5.80.417 | -5.20.650 | -2.90.677 | 49.0%102 | -2.00.778 |
| Octagon | +7.10.297 | -2.00.765 | -7.10.308 | +0.10.982 | -1.00.881 | -3.80.593 | -3.20.780 | -0.90.895 | +2.00.778 | 51.0%100 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted223
Win rate54.3%
Widest swing36.6 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Pai's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low fence | 90.9% | +36.6 | 0.012 | 11 · | |
| Octagon | 66.7% | +12.4 | 0.375 | 12 · | |
| Half fence | 64.0% | +9.7 | 0.300 | 25 · | |
| Full fence | 60.9% | +6.6 | 0.502 | 23 · | |
| Fence and open | 53.3% | -0.9 | 0.941 | 15 · | |
| Open | 52.9% | -1.3 | 0.910 | 17 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 50.0% | -4.3 | 0.550 | 40 · | |
| Single wall | 50.0% | -4.3 | 0.723 | 16 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 42.9% | -11.4 | 0.195 | 28 · | |
| Rectangle | 41.4% | -12.9 | 0.135 | 29 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Pai's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 11.88 on 9 df, p 0.220
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 60.9%23 | +10.90.405 | -3.10.823 | +18.00.200 | -30.00.072 | +10.90.501 | +7.50.646 | +7.90.616 | +19.50.163 | -5.80.736 |
| Breakable full fence | -10.90.405 | 50.0%40 | -14.00.269 | +7.10.561 | -40.90.015 | +0.01.000 | -3.30.826 | -2.90.839 | +8.60.478 | -16.70.310 |
| Half fence | +3.10.823 | +14.00.269 | 64.0%25 | +21.10.124 | -26.90.097 | +14.00.375 | +10.70.505 | +11.10.474 | +22.60.097 | -2.70.874 |
| Breakable half fence | -18.00.200 | -7.10.561 | -21.10.124 | 42.9%28 | -48.00.006 | -7.10.647 | -10.50.512 | -10.10.511 | +1.50.910 | -23.80.168 |
| Low fence | +30.00.072 | +40.90.015 | +26.90.097 | +48.00.006 | 90.9%11 | +40.90.027 | +37.60.040 | +38.00.036 | +49.50.005 | +24.20.159 |
| Single wall | -10.90.501 | -0.01.000 | -14.00.375 | +7.10.647 | -40.90.027 | 50.0%16 | -3.30.853 | -2.90.866 | +8.60.577 | -16.70.378 |
| Fence and open | -7.50.646 | +3.30.826 | -10.70.505 | +10.50.512 | -37.60.040 | +3.30.853 | 53.3%15 | +0.40.982 | +11.90.450 | -13.30.484 |
| Open | -7.90.616 | +2.90.839 | -11.10.474 | +10.10.511 | -38.00.036 | +2.90.866 | -0.40.982 | 52.9%17 | +11.60.447 | -13.70.460 |
| Rectangle | -19.50.163 | -8.60.478 | -22.60.097 | -1.50.910 | -49.50.005 | -8.60.577 | -11.90.450 | -11.60.447 | 41.4%29 | -25.30.141 |
| Octagon | +5.80.736 | +16.70.310 | +2.70.874 | +23.80.168 | -24.20.159 | +16.70.378 | +13.30.484 | +13.70.460 | +25.30.141 | 66.7%12 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.