Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Pai vs Shun
Matches counted1,776
Win rate50.6%
Widest swing7.3 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Pai's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 57.9% | +7.3 | 0.049 | 164 | |
| Breakable half fence | 55.1% | +4.5 | 0.209 | 176 | |
| Full fence | 52.9% | +2.3 | 0.528 | 172 | |
| Breakable full fence | 51.7% | +1.1 | 0.784 | 147 | |
| Half fence | 51.0% | +0.4 | 0.907 | 198 | |
| Octagon | 50.8% | +0.2 | 0.953 | 181 | |
| Low fence | 49.2% | -1.4 | 0.681 | 199 | |
| Fence and open | 48.4% | -2.3 | 0.605 | 122 | |
| Rectangle | 48.3% | -2.3 | 0.515 | 174 | |
| Single wall | 45.7% | -4.9 | 0.187 | 162 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Pai's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 7.54 on 9 df, p 0.581
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 52.9%172 | +1.20.830 | +1.90.716 | -2.20.680 | +3.70.482 | +7.20.187 | +4.50.442 | -5.00.355 | +4.60.389 | +2.10.696 |
| Breakable full fence | -1.20.830 | 51.7%147 | +0.70.899 | -3.40.540 | +2.50.652 | +6.00.290 | +3.30.585 | -6.20.271 | +3.40.541 | +0.90.875 |
| Half fence | -1.90.716 | -0.70.899 | 51.0%198 | -4.10.427 | +1.80.725 | +5.30.314 | +2.60.645 | -6.90.189 | +2.70.599 | +0.20.972 |
| Breakable half fence | +2.20.680 | +3.40.540 | +4.10.427 | 55.1%176 | +5.90.256 | +9.40.083 | +6.80.251 | -2.80.601 | +6.80.201 | +4.30.417 |
| Low fence | -3.70.482 | -2.50.652 | -1.80.725 | -5.90.256 | 49.2%199 | +3.60.500 | +0.90.878 | -8.70.099 | +1.00.852 | -1.60.758 |
| Single wall | -7.20.187 | -6.00.290 | -5.30.314 | -9.40.083 | -3.60.500 | 45.7%162 | -2.70.654 | -12.20.027 | -2.60.634 | -5.20.341 |
| Fence and open | -4.50.442 | -3.30.585 | -2.60.645 | -6.80.251 | -0.90.878 | +2.70.654 | 48.4%122 | -9.60.108 | +0.10.989 | -2.50.673 |
| Open | +5.00.355 | +6.20.271 | +6.90.189 | +2.80.601 | +8.70.099 | +12.20.027 | +9.60.108 | 57.9%164 | +9.70.076 | +7.10.186 |
| Rectangle | -4.60.389 | -3.40.541 | -2.70.599 | -6.80.201 | -1.00.852 | +2.60.634 | -0.10.989 | -9.70.076 | 48.3%174 | -2.50.631 |
| Octagon | -2.10.696 | -0.90.875 | -0.20.972 | -4.30.417 | +1.60.758 | +5.20.341 | +2.50.673 | -7.10.186 | +2.50.631 | 50.8%181 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted1,553
Win rate51.3%
Widest swing7.2 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Pai's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 58.5% | +7.2 | 0.072 | 142 | |
| Breakable half fence | 56.5% | +5.2 | 0.184 | 147 | |
| Full fence | 56.2% | +5.0 | 0.197 | 153 | |
| Breakable full fence | 53.3% | +2.1 | 0.613 | 135 | |
| Half fence | 50.9% | -0.4 | 0.911 | 175 | |
| Octagon | 50.6% | -0.6 | 0.871 | 156 | |
| Low fence | 49.7% | -1.6 | 0.666 | 173 | |
| Rectangle | 49.0% | -2.3 | 0.562 | 145 | |
| Fence and open | 47.5% | -3.8 | 0.391 | 118 | |
| Single wall | 44.7% | -6.6 | 0.101 | 141 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Pai's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 9.78 on 9 df, p 0.369
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 56.2%153 | +2.90.625 | +5.30.332 | -0.20.965 | +6.50.241 | +11.50.048 | +8.80.153 | -2.20.697 | +7.20.211 | +5.60.327 |
| Breakable full fence | -2.90.625 | 53.3%135 | +2.50.665 | -3.10.598 | +3.60.528 | +8.70.151 | +5.90.351 | -5.10.391 | +4.40.465 | +2.70.647 |
| Half fence | -5.30.332 | -2.50.665 | 50.9%175 | -5.60.315 | +1.10.831 | +6.20.275 | +3.40.568 | -7.60.177 | +1.90.736 | +0.20.969 |
| Breakable half fence | +0.20.965 | +3.10.598 | +5.60.315 | 56.5%147 | +6.80.228 | +11.80.046 | +9.00.145 | -2.00.733 | +7.50.199 | +5.80.310 |
| Low fence | -6.50.241 | -3.60.528 | -1.10.831 | -6.80.228 | 49.7%173 | +5.00.375 | +2.20.706 | -8.70.122 | +0.70.895 | -0.90.866 |
| Single wall | -11.50.048 | -8.70.151 | -6.20.275 | -11.80.046 | -5.00.375 | 44.7%141 | -2.80.655 | -13.80.020 | -4.30.468 | -6.00.304 |
| Fence and open | -8.80.153 | -5.90.351 | -3.40.568 | -9.00.145 | -2.20.706 | +2.80.655 | 47.5%118 | -11.00.077 | -1.50.808 | -3.20.602 |
| Open | +2.20.697 | +5.10.391 | +7.60.177 | +2.00.733 | +8.70.122 | +13.80.020 | +11.00.077 | 58.5%142 | +9.50.107 | +7.80.176 |
| Rectangle | -7.20.211 | -4.40.465 | -1.90.736 | -7.50.199 | -0.70.895 | +4.30.468 | +1.50.808 | -9.50.107 | 49.0%145 | -1.70.771 |
| Octagon | -5.60.327 | -2.70.647 | -0.20.969 | -5.80.310 | +0.90.866 | +6.00.304 | +3.20.602 | -7.80.176 | +1.70.771 | 50.6%156 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted223
Win rate46.2%
Widest swing28.8 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Pai's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 75.0% | +28.8 | 0.243 | 4 · | |
| Open | 54.5% | +8.4 | 0.408 | 22 · | |
| Single wall | 52.4% | +6.2 | 0.550 | 21 · | |
| Half fence | 52.2% | +6.0 | 0.543 | 23 · | |
| Octagon | 52.0% | +5.8 | 0.536 | 25 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 48.3% | +2.1 | 0.809 | 29 · | |
| Low fence | 46.1% | -0.0 | 0.997 | 26 · | |
| Rectangle | 44.8% | -1.4 | 0.875 | 29 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 33.3% | -12.9 | 0.358 | 12 · | |
| Full fence | 26.3% | -19.9 | 0.069 | 19 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Pai's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 6.74 on 9 df, p 0.664
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 26.3%19 | -7.00.675 | -25.90.089 | -22.00.128 | -19.80.175 | -26.10.093 | -48.70.063 | -28.20.067 | -18.50.195 | -25.70.086 |
| Breakable full fence | +7.00.675 | 33.3%12 | -18.80.288 | -14.90.380 | -12.80.457 | -19.10.290 | -41.70.146 | -21.20.236 | -11.50.497 | -18.70.286 |
| Half fence | +25.90.089 | +18.80.288 | 52.2%23 | +3.90.780 | +6.00.674 | -0.20.989 | -22.80.396 | -2.40.873 | +7.30.598 | +0.20.990 |
| Breakable half fence | +22.00.128 | +14.90.380 | -3.90.780 | 48.3%29 | +2.10.875 | -4.10.774 | -26.70.316 | -6.30.657 | +3.50.792 | -3.70.785 |
| Low fence | +19.80.175 | +12.80.457 | -6.00.674 | -2.10.875 | 46.1%26 | -6.20.671 | -28.90.283 | -8.40.562 | +1.30.921 | -5.80.676 |
| Single wall | +26.10.093 | +19.10.290 | +0.20.989 | +4.10.774 | +6.20.671 | 52.4%21 | -22.60.404 | -2.20.887 | +7.50.598 | +0.40.979 |
| Fence and open | +48.70.063 | +41.70.146 | +22.80.396 | +26.70.316 | +28.90.283 | +22.60.404 | 75.0%4 | +20.40.446 | +30.20.258 | +23.00.390 |
| Open | +28.20.067 | +21.20.236 | +2.40.873 | +6.30.657 | +8.40.562 | +2.20.887 | -20.40.446 | 54.5%22 | +9.70.492 | +2.50.861 |
| Rectangle | +18.50.195 | +11.50.497 | -7.30.598 | -3.50.792 | -1.30.921 | -7.50.598 | -30.20.258 | -9.70.492 | 44.8%29 | -7.20.599 |
| Octagon | +25.70.086 | +18.70.286 | -0.20.990 | +3.70.785 | +5.80.676 | -0.40.979 | -23.00.390 | -2.50.861 | +7.20.599 | 52.0%25 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.