Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Lion vs Wolf
Matches counted2,299
Win rate51.6%
Widest swing7.1 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Lion's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 58.7% | +7.1 | 0.164 | 92 | |
| Breakable half fence | 53.9% | +2.3 | 0.485 | 204 | |
| Full fence | 53.8% | +2.2 | 0.447 | 264 | |
| Single wall | 53.4% | +1.8 | 0.567 | 219 | |
| Low fence | 52.5% | +0.9 | 0.782 | 223 | |
| Rectangle | 52.5% | +0.9 | 0.764 | 265 | |
| Octagon | 52.0% | +0.5 | 0.884 | 219 | |
| Breakable full fence | 50.5% | -1.1 | 0.719 | 224 | |
| Half fence | 49.3% | -2.2 | 0.474 | 229 | |
| Open | 45.0% | -6.6 | 0.035 | 231 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Lion's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 7.83 on 9 df, p 0.552
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 53.8%264 | +3.30.461 | +4.50.325 | -0.10.977 | +1.30.771 | +0.40.936 | -4.90.415 | +8.80.052 | +1.30.758 | +1.70.704 |
| Breakable full fence | -3.30.461 | 50.5%224 | +1.10.815 | -3.50.472 | -2.00.669 | -3.00.530 | -8.20.182 | +5.40.247 | -2.00.658 | -1.60.735 |
| Half fence | -4.50.325 | -1.10.815 | 49.3%229 | -4.60.342 | -3.10.507 | -4.10.388 | -9.40.129 | +4.30.353 | -3.10.491 | -2.70.566 |
| Breakable half fence | +0.10.977 | +3.50.472 | +4.60.342 | 53.9%204 | +1.40.763 | +0.50.918 | -4.80.444 | +8.90.064 | +1.50.752 | +1.90.701 |
| Low fence | -1.30.771 | +2.00.669 | +3.10.507 | -1.40.763 | 52.5%223 | -0.90.840 | -6.20.313 | +7.50.113 | +0.00.998 | +0.40.931 |
| Single wall | -0.40.936 | +3.00.530 | +4.10.388 | -0.50.918 | +0.90.840 | 53.4%219 | -5.30.394 | +8.40.075 | +1.00.831 | +1.40.774 |
| Fence and open | +4.90.415 | +8.20.182 | +9.40.129 | +4.80.444 | +6.20.313 | +5.30.394 | 58.7%92 | +13.70.026 | +6.20.301 | +6.70.283 |
| Open | -8.80.052 | -5.40.247 | -4.30.353 | -8.90.064 | -7.50.113 | -8.40.075 | -13.70.026 | 45.0%231 | -7.40.099 | -7.00.136 |
| Rectangle | -1.30.758 | +2.00.658 | +3.10.491 | -1.50.752 | -0.00.998 | -1.00.831 | -6.20.301 | +7.40.099 | 52.5%265 | +0.40.930 |
| Octagon | -1.70.704 | +1.60.735 | +2.70.566 | -1.90.701 | -0.40.931 | -1.40.774 | -6.70.283 | +7.00.136 | -0.40.930 | 52.0%219 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted2,020
Win rate52.6%
Widest swing-7.0 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Lion's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 59.3% | +6.6 | 0.222 | 81 | |
| Full fence | 57.7% | +5.1 | 0.108 | 220 | |
| Single wall | 56.5% | +3.8 | 0.273 | 186 | |
| Breakable half fence | 55.4% | +2.8 | 0.444 | 177 | |
| Low fence | 53.5% | +0.9 | 0.794 | 200 | |
| Octagon | 52.7% | +0.1 | 0.973 | 201 | |
| Breakable full fence | 50.8% | -1.8 | 0.589 | 193 | |
| Rectangle | 50.6% | -2.0 | 0.510 | 239 | |
| Half fence | 50.2% | -2.4 | 0.480 | 199 | |
| Open | 45.6% | -7.0 | 0.034 | 206 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Lion's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 10.54 on 9 df, p 0.309
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 57.7%220 | +7.00.157 | +7.50.125 | +2.40.637 | +4.20.384 | +1.30.796 | -1.50.811 | +12.10.013 | +7.10.127 | +5.00.304 |
| Breakable full fence | -7.00.157 | 50.8%193 | +0.50.917 | -4.60.377 | -2.70.589 | -5.70.268 | -8.50.199 | +5.20.304 | +0.10.975 | -2.00.697 |
| Half fence | -7.50.125 | -0.50.917 | 50.2%199 | -5.10.321 | -3.20.516 | -6.20.223 | -9.00.171 | +4.60.352 | -0.40.937 | -2.50.619 |
| Breakable half fence | -2.40.637 | +4.60.377 | +5.10.321 | 55.4%177 | +1.90.716 | -1.10.835 | -3.90.558 | +9.70.057 | +4.70.338 | +2.60.609 |
| Low fence | -4.20.384 | +2.70.589 | +3.20.516 | -1.90.716 | 53.5%200 | -3.00.560 | -5.80.379 | +7.90.113 | +2.90.549 | +0.80.878 |
| Single wall | -1.30.796 | +5.70.268 | +6.20.223 | +1.10.835 | +3.00.560 | 56.5%186 | -2.80.670 | +10.80.032 | +5.80.233 | +3.70.463 |
| Fence and open | +1.50.811 | +8.50.199 | +9.00.171 | +3.90.558 | +5.80.379 | +2.80.670 | 59.3%81 | +13.60.038 | +8.60.179 | +6.50.319 |
| Open | -12.10.013 | -5.20.304 | -4.60.352 | -9.70.057 | -7.90.113 | -10.80.032 | -13.60.038 | 45.6%206 | -5.00.293 | -7.10.152 |
| Rectangle | -7.10.127 | -0.10.975 | +0.40.937 | -4.70.338 | -2.90.549 | -5.80.233 | -8.60.179 | +5.00.293 | 50.6%239 | -2.10.659 |
| Octagon | -5.00.304 | +2.00.697 | +2.50.619 | -2.60.609 | -0.80.878 | -3.70.463 | -6.50.319 | +7.10.152 | +2.10.659 | 52.7%201 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted279
Win rate44.1%
Widest swing25.1 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Lion's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rectangle | 69.2% | +25.1 | 0.007 | 26 · | |
| Fence and open | 54.5% | +10.5 | 0.476 | 11 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 48.4% | +4.3 | 0.609 | 31 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 44.4% | +0.3 | 0.969 | 27 · | |
| Octagon | 44.4% | +0.3 | 0.975 | 18 · | |
| Low fence | 43.5% | -0.6 | 0.951 | 23 · | |
| Half fence | 43.3% | -0.8 | 0.930 | 30 · | |
| Open | 40.0% | -4.1 | 0.666 | 25 · | |
| Single wall | 36.4% | -7.7 | 0.341 | 33 · | |
| Full fence | 34.1% | -10.0 | 0.146 | 44 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Lion's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 10.13 on 9 df, p 0.340
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 34.1%44 | -14.30.213 | -9.20.421 | -10.30.383 | -9.40.451 | -2.30.836 | -20.50.212 | -5.90.624 | -35.10.004 | -10.30.444 |
| Breakable full fence | +14.30.213 | 48.4%31 | +5.10.692 | +4.00.764 | +4.90.721 | +12.00.330 | -6.20.726 | +8.40.530 | -20.80.112 | +4.00.790 |
| Half fence | +9.20.421 | -5.10.692 | 43.3%30 | -1.10.933 | -0.10.992 | +7.00.572 | -11.20.524 | +3.30.803 | -25.90.052 | -1.10.940 |
| Breakable half fence | +10.30.383 | -4.00.764 | +1.10.933 | 44.4%27 | +1.00.945 | +8.10.525 | -10.10.572 | +4.40.746 | -24.80.069 | +0.01.000 |
| Low fence | +9.40.451 | -4.90.721 | +0.10.992 | -1.00.945 | 43.5%23 | +7.10.592 | -11.10.545 | +3.50.807 | -25.80.069 | -1.00.951 |
| Single wall | +2.30.836 | -12.00.330 | -7.00.572 | -8.10.525 | -7.10.592 | 36.4%33 | -18.20.288 | -3.60.777 | -32.90.012 | -8.10.572 |
| Fence and open | +20.50.212 | +6.20.726 | +11.20.524 | +10.10.572 | +11.10.545 | +18.20.288 | 54.5%11 | +14.60.418 | -14.70.392 | +10.10.597 |
| Open | +5.90.624 | -8.40.530 | -3.30.803 | -4.40.746 | -3.50.807 | +3.60.777 | -14.60.418 | 40.0%25 | -29.20.036 | -4.40.771 |
| Rectangle | +35.10.004 | +20.80.112 | +25.90.052 | +24.80.069 | +25.80.069 | +32.90.012 | +14.70.392 | +29.20.036 | 69.2%26 | +24.80.100 |
| Octagon | +10.30.444 | -4.00.790 | +1.10.940 | -0.01.000 | +1.00.951 | +8.10.572 | -10.10.597 | +4.40.771 | -24.80.100 | 44.4%18 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.