Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Lion vs Vanessa
Matches counted1,836
Win rate53.6%
Widest swing-13.9 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Lion's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Octagon | 60.5% | +6.9 | 0.047 | 185 | |
| Half fence | 58.1% | +4.5 | 0.215 | 172 | |
| Breakable half fence | 57.3% | +3.6 | 0.304 | 178 | |
| Single wall | 56.0% | +2.4 | 0.480 | 200 | |
| Open | 55.1% | +1.5 | 0.657 | 194 | |
| Rectangle | 54.5% | +0.9 | 0.802 | 176 | |
| Breakable full fence | 50.6% | -3.0 | 0.418 | 162 | |
| Low fence | 49.8% | -3.9 | 0.202 | 237 | |
| Full fence | 49.4% | -4.2 | 0.234 | 180 | |
| Fence and open | 39.7% | -13.9 | 0.012 | 78 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Lion's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 15.90 on 9 df, p 0.069
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 49.4%180 | -1.20.829 | -8.70.102 | -7.90.136 | -0.30.944 | -6.60.201 | +9.70.151 | -5.70.269 | -5.10.335 | -11.10.033 |
| Breakable full fence | +1.20.829 | 50.6%162 | -7.50.168 | -6.70.217 | +0.80.871 | -5.40.307 | +10.90.114 | -4.50.393 | -3.90.470 | -9.90.063 |
| Half fence | +8.70.102 | +7.50.168 | 58.1%172 | +0.80.874 | +8.30.095 | +2.10.678 | +18.40.007 | +3.00.565 | +3.60.499 | -2.40.644 |
| Breakable half fence | +7.90.136 | +6.70.217 | -0.80.874 | 57.3%178 | +7.50.129 | +1.30.799 | +17.60.010 | +2.10.676 | +2.80.601 | -3.20.531 |
| Low fence | +0.30.944 | -0.80.871 | -8.30.095 | -7.50.129 | 49.8%237 | -6.20.195 | +10.10.123 | -5.40.267 | -4.80.339 | -10.80.028 |
| Single wall | +6.60.201 | +5.40.307 | -2.10.678 | -1.30.799 | +6.20.195 | 56.0%200 | +16.30.015 | +0.80.866 | +1.40.777 | -4.50.367 |
| Fence and open | -9.70.151 | -10.90.114 | -18.40.007 | -17.60.010 | -10.10.123 | -16.30.015 | 39.7%78 | -15.40.021 | -14.80.030 | -20.80.002 |
| Open | +5.70.269 | +4.50.393 | -3.00.565 | -2.10.676 | +5.40.267 | -0.80.866 | +15.40.021 | 55.1%194 | +0.60.906 | -5.40.289 |
| Rectangle | +5.10.335 | +3.90.470 | -3.60.499 | -2.80.601 | +4.80.339 | -1.40.777 | +14.80.030 | -0.60.906 | 54.5%176 | -6.00.249 |
| Octagon | +11.10.033 | +9.90.063 | +2.40.644 | +3.20.531 | +10.80.028 | +4.50.367 | +20.80.002 | +5.40.289 | +6.00.249 | 60.5%185 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted1,244
Win rate52.7%
Widest swing-13.8 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Lion's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Octagon | 62.4% | +9.7 | 0.018 | 133 | |
| Half fence | 60.0% | +7.3 | 0.101 | 115 | |
| Breakable half fence | 59.3% | +6.6 | 0.132 | 118 | |
| Single wall | 56.5% | +3.8 | 0.363 | 131 | |
| Rectangle | 53.4% | +0.7 | 0.881 | 118 | |
| Open | 52.8% | +0.1 | 0.983 | 142 | |
| Breakable full fence | 48.7% | -4.0 | 0.361 | 117 | |
| Full fence | 46.0% | -6.7 | 0.134 | 113 | |
| Low fence | 44.9% | -7.8 | 0.043 | 147 | |
| Fence and open | 39.0% | -13.8 | 0.030 | 59 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Lion's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 21.13 on 9 df, p 0.012
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 46.0%113 | -2.70.682 | -14.00.034 | -13.30.043 | +1.10.857 | -10.50.103 | +7.00.377 | -6.80.281 | -7.40.263 | -16.40.010 |
| Breakable full fence | +2.70.682 | 48.7%117 | -11.30.085 | -10.60.103 | +3.80.537 | -7.80.221 | +9.70.221 | -4.10.511 | -4.70.474 | -13.70.030 |
| Half fence | +14.00.034 | +11.30.085 | 60.0%115 | +0.70.916 | +15.10.015 | +3.50.578 | +21.00.009 | +7.20.249 | +6.60.309 | -2.40.698 |
| Breakable half fence | +13.30.043 | +10.60.103 | -0.70.916 | 59.3%118 | +14.40.020 | +2.80.651 | +20.30.011 | +6.50.293 | +5.90.358 | -3.10.617 |
| Low fence | -1.10.857 | -3.80.537 | -15.10.015 | -14.40.020 | 44.9%147 | -11.60.054 | +5.90.438 | -7.90.178 | -8.50.169 | -17.50.003 |
| Single wall | +10.50.103 | +7.80.221 | -3.50.578 | -2.80.651 | +11.60.054 | 56.5%131 | +17.50.026 | +3.70.543 | +3.10.624 | -5.90.327 |
| Fence and open | -7.00.377 | -9.70.221 | -21.00.009 | -20.30.011 | -5.90.438 | -17.50.026 | 39.0%59 | -13.80.074 | -14.40.071 | -23.40.003 |
| Open | +6.80.281 | +4.10.511 | -7.20.249 | -6.50.293 | +7.90.178 | -3.70.543 | +13.80.074 | 52.8%142 | -0.60.927 | -9.60.108 |
| Rectangle | +7.40.263 | +4.70.474 | -6.60.309 | -5.90.358 | +8.50.169 | -3.10.624 | +14.40.071 | +0.60.927 | 53.4%118 | -9.00.148 |
| Octagon | +16.40.010 | +13.70.030 | +2.40.698 | +3.10.617 | +17.50.003 | +5.90.327 | +23.40.003 | +9.60.108 | +9.00.148 | 62.4%133 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted592
Win rate55.6%
Widest swing-13.5 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Lion's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 61.5% | +6.0 | 0.365 | 52 · | |
| Low fence | 57.8% | +2.2 | 0.648 | 90 | |
| Rectangle | 56.9% | +1.3 | 0.831 | 58 · | |
| Octagon | 55.8% | +0.2 | 0.976 | 52 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 55.6% | -0.0 | 0.998 | 45 · | |
| Full fence | 55.2% | -0.3 | 0.951 | 67 · | |
| Single wall | 55.1% | -0.5 | 0.929 | 69 · | |
| Half fence | 54.4% | -1.2 | 0.849 | 57 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 53.3% | -2.2 | 0.712 | 60 · | |
| Fence and open | 42.1% | -13.5 | 0.230 | 19 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Lion's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 2.53 on 9 df, p 0.980
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 55.2%67 | -0.30.972 | +0.80.926 | +1.90.831 | -2.60.749 | +0.10.986 | +13.10.312 | -6.30.489 | -1.70.851 | -0.60.953 |
| Breakable full fence | +0.30.972 | 55.6%45 | +1.20.906 | +2.20.821 | -2.20.806 | +0.50.960 | +13.40.325 | -6.00.551 | -1.30.892 | -0.20.983 |
| Half fence | -0.80.926 | -1.20.906 | 54.4%57 | +1.10.909 | -3.40.686 | -0.70.939 | +12.30.354 | -7.20.450 | -2.50.786 | -1.40.885 |
| Breakable half fence | -1.90.831 | -2.20.821 | -1.10.909 | 53.3%60 | -4.50.591 | -1.70.843 | +11.20.394 | -8.20.382 | -3.60.697 | -2.40.796 |
| Low fence | +2.60.749 | +2.20.806 | +3.40.686 | +4.50.591 | 57.8%90 | +2.70.733 | +15.70.212 | -3.80.661 | +0.90.916 | +2.00.816 |
| Single wall | -0.10.986 | -0.50.960 | +0.70.939 | +1.70.843 | -2.70.733 | 55.1%69 | +13.00.316 | -6.50.476 | -1.80.837 | -0.70.939 |
| Fence and open | -13.10.312 | -13.40.325 | -12.30.354 | -11.20.394 | -15.70.212 | -13.00.316 | 42.1%19 | -19.40.144 | -14.80.262 | -13.70.308 |
| Open | +6.30.489 | +6.00.551 | +7.20.450 | +8.20.382 | +3.80.661 | +6.50.476 | +19.40.144 | 61.5%52 | +4.60.621 | +5.80.550 |
| Rectangle | +1.70.851 | +1.30.892 | +2.50.786 | +3.60.697 | -0.90.916 | +1.80.837 | +14.80.262 | -4.60.621 | 56.9%58 | +1.10.905 |
| Octagon | +0.60.953 | +0.20.983 | +1.40.885 | +2.40.796 | -2.00.816 | +0.70.939 | +13.70.308 | -5.80.550 | -1.10.905 | 55.8%52 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.