Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Lion vs Taka
Matches counted712
Win rate42.1%
Widest swing-13.0 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Lion's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakable half fence | 52.6% | +10.5 | 0.050 | 76 · | |
| Open | 47.3% | +5.1 | 0.422 | 55 · | |
| Half fence | 47.1% | +5.0 | 0.372 | 70 · | |
| Octagon | 47.1% | +4.9 | 0.387 | 68 · | |
| Full fence | 46.6% | +4.5 | 0.366 | 88 | |
| Low fence | 42.4% | +0.2 | 0.969 | 59 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 41.9% | -0.2 | 0.964 | 74 · | |
| Rectangle | 39.3% | -2.8 | 0.644 | 61 · | |
| Single wall | 29.3% | -12.8 | 0.018 | 75 · | |
| Fence and open | 29.2% | -13.0 | 0.060 | 48 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Lion's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 14.54 on 9 df, p 0.104
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 46.6%88 | +4.70.549 | -0.60.945 | -6.00.440 | +4.20.614 | +17.30.024 | +17.40.048 | -0.70.937 | +7.20.380 | -0.50.954 |
| Breakable full fence | -4.70.549 | 41.9%74 | -5.20.526 | -10.70.188 | -0.50.955 | +12.60.109 | +12.70.155 | -5.40.543 | +2.50.764 | -5.20.536 |
| Half fence | +0.60.945 | +5.20.526 | 47.1%70 | -5.50.508 | +4.80.587 | +17.80.027 | +18.00.050 | -0.10.988 | +7.80.369 | +0.10.992 |
| Breakable half fence | +6.00.440 | +10.70.188 | +5.50.508 | 52.6%76 | +10.30.237 | +23.30.004 | +23.50.010 | +5.40.545 | +13.30.121 | +5.60.504 |
| Low fence | -4.20.614 | +0.50.955 | -4.80.587 | -10.30.237 | 42.4%59 | +13.00.116 | +13.20.158 | -4.90.599 | +3.00.736 | -4.70.596 |
| Single wall | -17.30.024 | -12.60.109 | -17.80.027 | -23.30.004 | -13.00.116 | 29.3%75 | +0.20.984 | -17.90.036 | -10.00.220 | -17.70.029 |
| Fence and open | -17.40.048 | -12.70.155 | -18.00.050 | -23.50.010 | -13.20.158 | -0.20.984 | 29.2%48 | -18.10.060 | -10.20.268 | -17.90.052 |
| Open | +0.70.937 | +5.40.543 | +0.10.988 | -5.40.545 | +4.90.599 | +17.90.036 | +18.10.060 | 47.3%55 | +7.90.389 | +0.20.981 |
| Rectangle | -7.20.380 | -2.50.764 | -7.80.369 | -13.30.121 | -3.00.736 | +10.00.220 | +10.20.268 | -7.90.389 | 39.3%61 | -7.70.377 |
| Octagon | +0.50.954 | +5.20.536 | -0.10.992 | -5.60.504 | +4.70.596 | +17.70.029 | +17.90.052 | -0.20.981 | +7.70.377 | 47.1%68 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted482
Win rate44.2%
Widest swing-16.5 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Lion's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakable half fence | 55.0% | +10.8 | 0.072 | 60 · | |
| Half fence | 51.1% | +6.9 | 0.318 | 47 · | |
| Full fence | 50.9% | +6.7 | 0.272 | 59 · | |
| Octagon | 50.0% | +5.8 | 0.393 | 48 · | |
| Low fence | 45.0% | +0.8 | 0.914 | 40 · | |
| Open | 43.8% | -0.4 | 0.959 | 32 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 42.6% | -1.6 | 0.802 | 54 · | |
| Rectangle | 40.0% | -4.2 | 0.577 | 40 · | |
| Fence and open | 31.0% | -13.2 | 0.141 | 29 · | |
| Single wall | 27.7% | -16.5 | 0.016 | 47 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Lion's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 12.97 on 9 df, p 0.164
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 50.9%59 | +8.30.380 | -0.20.982 | -4.20.650 | +5.80.568 | +23.20.016 | +19.80.079 | +7.10.518 | +10.80.288 | +0.80.931 |
| Breakable full fence | -8.30.380 | 42.6%54 | -8.50.395 | -12.40.186 | -2.40.816 | +14.90.118 | +11.60.302 | -1.20.917 | +2.60.801 | -7.40.454 |
| Half fence | +0.20.982 | +8.50.395 | 51.1%47 | -3.90.685 | +6.10.573 | +23.40.020 | +20.00.087 | +7.30.523 | +11.10.302 | +1.10.917 |
| Breakable half fence | +4.20.650 | +12.40.186 | +3.90.685 | 55.0%60 | +10.00.327 | +27.30.005 | +24.00.034 | +11.20.304 | +15.00.142 | +5.00.605 |
| Low fence | -5.80.568 | +2.40.816 | -6.10.573 | -10.00.327 | 45.0%40 | +17.30.092 | +14.00.241 | +1.20.916 | +5.00.651 | -5.00.640 |
| Single wall | -23.20.016 | -14.90.118 | -23.40.020 | -27.30.005 | -17.30.092 | 27.7%47 | -3.40.753 | -16.10.139 | -12.30.224 | -22.30.026 |
| Fence and open | -19.80.079 | -11.60.302 | -20.00.087 | -24.00.034 | -14.00.241 | +3.40.753 | 31.0%29 | -12.70.306 | -9.00.444 | -19.00.103 |
| Open | -7.10.518 | +1.20.917 | -7.30.523 | -11.20.304 | -1.20.916 | +16.10.139 | +12.70.306 | 43.8%32 | +3.80.748 | -6.20.583 |
| Rectangle | -10.80.288 | -2.60.801 | -11.10.302 | -15.00.142 | -5.00.651 | +12.30.224 | +9.00.444 | -3.80.748 | 40.0%40 | -10.00.348 |
| Octagon | -0.80.931 | +7.40.454 | -1.10.917 | -5.00.605 | +5.00.640 | +22.30.026 | +19.00.103 | +6.20.583 | +10.00.348 | 50.0%48 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted230
Win rate37.8%
Widest swing14.3 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Lion's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 52.2% | +14.3 | 0.135 | 23 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 43.8% | +5.9 | 0.612 | 16 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 40.0% | +2.2 | 0.834 | 20 · | |
| Octagon | 40.0% | +2.2 | 0.834 | 20 · | |
| Half fence | 39.1% | +1.3 | 0.892 | 23 · | |
| Rectangle | 38.1% | +0.3 | 0.979 | 21 · | |
| Full fence | 37.9% | +0.1 | 0.990 | 29 · | |
| Low fence | 36.8% | -1.0 | 0.926 | 19 · | |
| Single wall | 32.1% | -5.7 | 0.508 | 28 · | |
| Fence and open | 26.3% | -11.5 | 0.280 | 19 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Lion's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 3.74 on 9 df, p 0.928
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 37.9%29 | -2.10.884 | -1.20.930 | -5.80.703 | +1.10.939 | +5.80.647 | +11.60.404 | -14.20.304 | -0.20.991 | -2.10.884 |
| Breakable full fence | +2.10.884 | 40.0%20 | +0.90.954 | -3.80.821 | +3.20.839 | +7.90.575 | +13.70.365 | -12.20.425 | +1.90.901 | +0.01.000 |
| Half fence | +1.20.930 | -0.90.954 | 39.1%23 | -4.60.773 | +2.30.879 | +7.00.603 | +12.80.381 | -13.00.375 | +1.00.944 | -0.90.954 |
| Breakable half fence | +5.80.703 | +3.80.821 | +4.60.773 | 43.8%16 | +6.90.678 | +11.60.441 | +17.40.279 | -8.40.605 | +5.70.729 | +3.80.821 |
| Low fence | -1.10.939 | -3.20.839 | -2.30.879 | -6.90.678 | 36.8%19 | +4.70.739 | +10.50.485 | -15.30.320 | -1.30.935 | -3.20.839 |
| Single wall | -5.80.647 | -7.90.575 | -7.00.603 | -11.60.441 | -4.70.739 | 32.1%28 | +5.80.668 | -20.00.148 | -6.00.665 | -7.90.575 |
| Fence and open | -11.60.404 | -13.70.365 | -12.80.381 | -17.40.279 | -10.50.485 | -5.80.668 | 26.3%19 | -25.90.089 | -11.80.427 | -13.70.365 |
| Open | +14.20.304 | +12.20.425 | +13.00.375 | +8.40.605 | +15.30.320 | +20.00.148 | +25.90.089 | 52.2%23 | +14.10.349 | +12.20.425 |
| Rectangle | +0.20.991 | -1.90.901 | -1.00.944 | -5.70.729 | +1.30.935 | +6.00.665 | +11.80.427 | -14.10.349 | 38.1%21 | -1.90.901 |
| Octagon | +2.10.884 | -0.01.000 | +0.90.954 | -3.80.821 | +3.20.839 | +7.90.575 | +13.70.365 | -12.20.425 | +1.90.901 | 40.0%20 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.