Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Lion vs Shun
Matches counted2,271
Win rate53.3%
Widest swing-7.5 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Lion's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single wall | 59.7% | +6.4 | 0.034 | 248 | |
| Low fence | 59.6% | +6.3 | 0.064 | 198 | |
| Rectangle | 54.9% | +1.6 | 0.622 | 213 | |
| Open | 53.9% | +0.6 | 0.847 | 243 | |
| Half fence | 53.4% | +0.1 | 0.983 | 236 | |
| Breakable full fence | 53.1% | -0.2 | 0.941 | 211 | |
| Octagon | 53.0% | -0.3 | 0.926 | 215 | |
| Breakable half fence | 50.4% | -2.9 | 0.340 | 240 | |
| Fence and open | 49.0% | -4.3 | 0.277 | 145 | |
| Full fence | 45.9% | -7.5 | 0.025 | 205 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Lion's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 13.92 on 9 df, p 0.125
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 45.9%205 | -7.20.141 | -7.50.114 | -4.60.337 | -13.80.006 | -13.80.003 | -3.10.566 | -8.10.089 | -9.10.064 | -7.20.142 |
| Breakable full fence | +7.20.141 | 53.1%211 | -0.30.948 | +2.70.572 | -6.50.184 | -6.60.155 | +4.10.445 | -0.80.860 | -1.90.702 | +0.10.991 |
| Half fence | +7.50.114 | +0.30.948 | 53.4%236 | +3.00.516 | -6.20.194 | -6.30.163 | +4.40.401 | -0.50.909 | -1.50.744 | +0.40.938 |
| Breakable half fence | +4.60.337 | -2.70.572 | -3.00.516 | 50.4%240 | -9.20.055 | -9.30.040 | +1.40.783 | -3.50.442 | -4.50.337 | -2.60.579 |
| Low fence | +13.80.006 | +6.50.184 | +6.20.194 | +9.20.055 | 59.6%198 | -0.10.986 | +10.60.051 | +5.70.231 | +4.70.339 | +6.60.179 |
| Single wall | +13.80.003 | +6.60.155 | +6.30.163 | +9.30.040 | +0.10.986 | 59.7%248 | +10.70.039 | +5.80.197 | +4.80.304 | +6.70.150 |
| Fence and open | +3.10.566 | -4.10.445 | -4.40.401 | -1.40.783 | -10.60.051 | -10.70.039 | 49.0%145 | -4.90.346 | -6.00.267 | -4.00.450 |
| Open | +8.10.089 | +0.80.860 | +0.50.909 | +3.50.442 | -5.70.231 | -5.80.197 | +4.90.346 | 53.9%243 | -1.00.827 | +0.90.849 |
| Rectangle | +9.10.064 | +1.90.702 | +1.50.744 | +4.50.337 | -4.70.339 | -4.80.304 | +6.00.267 | +1.00.827 | 54.9%213 | +1.90.692 |
| Octagon | +7.20.142 | -0.10.991 | -0.40.938 | +2.60.579 | -6.60.179 | -6.70.150 | +4.00.450 | -0.90.849 | -1.90.692 | 53.0%215 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted1,812
Win rate54.9%
Widest swing12.2 pts
Survive correction1
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Lion's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low fence | 67.1% | +12.2 | 0.001 | 155 | |
| Single wall | 57.8% | +2.9 | 0.373 | 206 | |
| Rectangle | 57.7% | +2.8 | 0.449 | 163 | |
| Half fence | 56.8% | +2.0 | 0.561 | 190 | |
| Breakable full fence | 55.5% | +0.6 | 0.860 | 173 | |
| Open | 54.0% | -0.8 | 0.807 | 198 | |
| Octagon | 52.6% | -2.3 | 0.523 | 175 | |
| Breakable half fence | 52.2% | -2.7 | 0.416 | 205 | |
| Fence and open | 48.6% | -6.2 | 0.177 | 109 | |
| Full fence | 44.9% | -9.9 | 0.015 | 138 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Lion's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 19.14 on 9 df, p 0.024
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 44.9%138 | -10.60.064 | -11.90.033 | -7.30.187 | -22.2<0.001 | -12.80.019 | -3.70.563 | -9.10.100 | -12.70.028 | -7.60.179 |
| Breakable full fence | +10.60.064 | 55.5%173 | -1.40.796 | +3.30.522 | -11.60.031 | -2.30.656 | +6.90.261 | +1.40.779 | -2.20.687 | +2.90.585 |
| Half fence | +11.90.033 | +1.40.796 | 56.8%190 | +4.60.354 | -10.30.052 | -0.90.853 | +8.20.170 | +2.80.579 | -0.80.876 | +4.30.413 |
| Breakable half fence | +7.30.187 | -3.30.522 | -4.60.354 | 52.2%205 | -14.90.004 | -5.60.256 | +3.60.547 | -1.80.711 | -5.50.295 | -0.40.942 |
| Low fence | +22.2<0.001 | +11.60.031 | +10.30.052 | +14.90.004 | 67.1%155 | +9.30.071 | +18.50.003 | +13.10.013 | +9.40.083 | +14.50.007 |
| Single wall | +12.80.019 | +2.30.656 | +0.90.853 | +5.60.256 | -9.30.071 | 57.8%206 | +9.20.121 | +3.70.451 | +0.10.985 | +5.20.309 |
| Fence and open | +3.70.563 | -6.90.261 | -8.20.170 | -3.60.547 | -18.50.003 | -9.20.121 | 48.6%109 | -5.40.363 | -9.10.142 | -4.00.518 |
| Open | +9.10.100 | -1.40.779 | -2.80.579 | +1.80.711 | -13.10.013 | -3.70.451 | +5.40.363 | 54.0%198 | -3.60.490 | +1.50.777 |
| Rectangle | +12.70.028 | +2.20.687 | +0.80.876 | +5.50.295 | -9.40.083 | -0.10.985 | +9.10.142 | +3.60.490 | 57.7%163 | +5.10.347 |
| Octagon | +7.60.179 | -2.90.585 | -4.30.413 | +0.40.942 | -14.50.007 | -5.20.309 | +4.00.518 | -1.50.777 | -5.10.347 | 52.6%175 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted459
Win rate47.3%
Widest swing21.8 pts
Survive correction1
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Lion's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single wall | 69.0% | +21.8 | 0.003 | 42 · | |
| Octagon | 55.0% | +7.7 | 0.306 | 40 · | |
| Open | 53.3% | +6.0 | 0.392 | 45 · | |
| Fence and open | 50.0% | +2.7 | 0.733 | 36 · | |
| Full fence | 47.8% | +0.5 | 0.932 | 67 · | |
| Rectangle | 46.0% | -1.3 | 0.848 | 50 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 42.1% | -5.2 | 0.505 | 38 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 40.0% | -7.3 | 0.370 | 35 · | |
| Half fence | 39.1% | -8.2 | 0.243 | 46 · | |
| Low fence | 32.6% | -14.7 | 0.042 | 43 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Lion's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 15.85 on 9 df, p 0.070
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 47.8%67 | +5.70.576 | +8.60.364 | +7.80.455 | +15.20.115 | -21.30.029 | -2.20.828 | -5.60.563 | +1.80.850 | -7.20.469 |
| Breakable full fence | -5.70.576 | 42.1%38 | +3.00.782 | +2.10.855 | +9.60.375 | -26.90.015 | -7.90.496 | -11.20.308 | -3.90.716 | -12.90.255 |
| Half fence | -8.60.364 | -3.00.782 | 39.1%46 | -0.90.937 | +6.60.518 | -29.90.005 | -10.90.325 | -14.20.174 | -6.90.497 | -15.90.141 |
| Breakable half fence | -7.80.455 | -2.10.855 | +0.90.937 | 40.0%35 | +7.40.496 | -29.10.011 | -10.00.397 | -13.30.236 | -6.00.583 | -15.00.195 |
| Low fence | -15.20.115 | -9.60.375 | -6.60.518 | -7.40.496 | 32.6%43 | -36.5<0.001 | -17.40.116 | -20.80.049 | -13.40.187 | -22.40.039 |
| Single wall | +21.30.029 | +26.90.015 | +29.90.005 | +29.10.011 | +36.5<0.001 | 69.0%42 | +19.10.087 | +15.70.133 | +23.10.026 | +14.10.190 |
| Fence and open | +2.20.828 | +7.90.496 | +10.90.325 | +10.00.397 | +17.40.116 | -19.10.087 | 50.0%36 | -3.30.765 | +4.00.714 | -5.00.663 |
| Open | +5.60.563 | +11.20.308 | +14.20.174 | +13.30.236 | +20.80.049 | -15.70.133 | +3.30.765 | 53.3%45 | +7.30.475 | -1.70.878 |
| Rectangle | -1.80.850 | +3.90.716 | +6.90.497 | +6.00.583 | +13.40.187 | -23.10.026 | -4.00.714 | -7.30.475 | 46.0%50 | -9.00.396 |
| Octagon | +7.20.469 | +12.90.255 | +15.90.141 | +15.00.195 | +22.40.039 | -14.10.190 | +5.00.663 | +1.70.878 | +9.00.396 | 55.0%40 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.