Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Lion vs Sarah
Matches counted2,288
Win rate50.7%
Widest swing-4.9 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Lion's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 53.6% | +2.9 | 0.328 | 248 | |
| Rectangle | 53.3% | +2.6 | 0.411 | 229 | |
| Half fence | 53.1% | +2.4 | 0.468 | 211 | |
| Full fence | 52.5% | +1.8 | 0.600 | 204 | |
| Fence and open | 49.5% | -1.2 | 0.804 | 109 | |
| Single wall | 49.1% | -1.6 | 0.616 | 222 | |
| Breakable half fence | 48.8% | -1.9 | 0.524 | 250 | |
| Low fence | 48.6% | -2.0 | 0.561 | 185 | |
| Breakable full fence | 47.9% | -2.8 | 0.334 | 257 | |
| Octagon | 45.8% | -4.9 | 0.110 | 238 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Lion's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 6.05 on 9 df, p 0.734
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 52.5%204 | +4.60.327 | -0.60.898 | +3.60.439 | +3.80.454 | +3.40.489 | +2.90.624 | -1.20.803 | -0.80.864 | +6.70.163 |
| Breakable full fence | -4.60.327 | 47.9%257 | -5.20.261 | -0.90.832 | -0.80.870 | -1.20.787 | -1.70.768 | -5.80.195 | -5.40.233 | +2.10.646 |
| Half fence | +0.60.898 | +5.20.261 | 53.1%211 | +4.30.360 | +4.40.379 | +4.00.407 | +3.50.548 | -0.60.907 | -0.20.967 | +7.30.123 |
| Breakable half fence | -3.60.439 | +0.90.832 | -4.30.360 | 48.8%250 | +0.10.975 | -0.30.948 | -0.70.897 | -4.80.281 | -4.50.328 | +3.00.507 |
| Low fence | -3.80.454 | +0.80.870 | -4.40.379 | -0.10.975 | 48.6%185 | -0.50.928 | -0.90.882 | -5.00.305 | -4.60.349 | +2.90.560 |
| Single wall | -3.40.489 | +1.20.787 | -4.00.407 | +0.30.948 | +0.50.928 | 49.1%222 | -0.40.940 | -4.50.327 | -4.20.375 | +3.30.479 |
| Fence and open | -2.90.624 | +1.70.768 | -3.50.548 | +0.70.897 | +0.90.882 | +0.40.940 | 49.5%109 | -4.10.476 | -3.70.521 | +3.70.517 |
| Open | +1.20.803 | +5.80.195 | +0.60.907 | +4.80.281 | +5.00.305 | +4.50.327 | +4.10.476 | 53.6%248 | +0.30.938 | +7.80.084 |
| Rectangle | +0.80.864 | +5.40.233 | +0.20.967 | +4.50.328 | +4.60.349 | +4.20.375 | +3.70.521 | -0.30.938 | 53.3%229 | +7.50.106 |
| Octagon | -6.70.163 | -2.10.646 | -7.30.123 | -3.00.507 | -2.90.560 | -3.30.479 | -3.70.517 | -7.80.084 | -7.50.106 | 45.8%238 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted1,806
Win rate48.7%
Widest swing-6.5 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Lion's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Half fence | 53.3% | +4.6 | 0.193 | 182 | |
| Full fence | 52.6% | +3.9 | 0.284 | 173 | |
| Open | 51.5% | +2.7 | 0.405 | 204 | |
| Rectangle | 50.3% | +1.6 | 0.665 | 173 | |
| Fence and open | 48.8% | +0.0 | 0.997 | 80 | |
| Low fence | 47.8% | -0.9 | 0.826 | 138 | |
| Single wall | 47.6% | -1.2 | 0.754 | 164 | |
| Breakable half fence | 46.1% | -2.7 | 0.438 | 191 | |
| Breakable full fence | 44.4% | -4.3 | 0.190 | 207 | |
| Octagon | 42.2% | -6.5 | 0.061 | 187 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Lion's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 8.60 on 9 df, p 0.475
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 52.6%173 | +8.20.113 | -0.70.896 | +6.50.213 | +4.80.403 | +5.00.355 | +3.90.569 | +1.10.827 | +2.30.667 | +10.30.049 |
| Breakable full fence | -8.20.113 | 44.4%207 | -8.90.081 | -1.60.744 | -3.40.537 | -3.10.550 | -4.30.511 | -7.00.154 | -5.80.256 | +2.20.660 |
| Half fence | +0.70.896 | +8.90.081 | 53.3%182 | +7.20.163 | +5.50.332 | +5.70.287 | +4.50.498 | +1.80.720 | +3.00.571 | +11.10.034 |
| Breakable half fence | -6.50.213 | +1.60.744 | -7.20.163 | 46.1%191 | -1.80.753 | -1.50.779 | -2.70.687 | -5.40.284 | -4.20.421 | +3.80.454 |
| Low fence | -4.80.403 | +3.40.537 | -5.50.332 | +1.80.753 | 47.8%138 | +0.30.963 | -0.90.895 | -3.60.508 | -2.50.666 | +5.60.317 |
| Single wall | -5.00.355 | +3.10.550 | -5.70.287 | +1.50.779 | -0.30.963 | 47.6%164 | -1.20.861 | -3.90.456 | -2.70.617 | +5.30.318 |
| Fence and open | -3.90.569 | +4.30.511 | -4.50.498 | +2.70.687 | +0.90.895 | +1.20.861 | 48.8%80 | -2.70.680 | -1.50.820 | +6.50.327 |
| Open | -1.10.827 | +7.00.154 | -1.80.720 | +5.40.284 | +3.60.508 | +3.90.456 | +2.70.680 | 51.5%204 | +1.20.819 | +9.20.068 |
| Rectangle | -2.30.667 | +5.80.256 | -3.00.571 | +4.20.421 | +2.50.666 | +2.70.617 | +1.50.820 | -1.20.819 | 50.3%173 | +8.00.126 |
| Octagon | -10.30.049 | -2.20.660 | -11.10.034 | -3.80.454 | -5.60.317 | -5.30.318 | -6.50.327 | -9.20.068 | -8.00.126 | 42.2%187 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted482
Win rate58.1%
Widest swing-7.0 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Lion's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 63.6% | +5.5 | 0.434 | 44 · | |
| Rectangle | 62.5% | +4.4 | 0.477 | 56 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 62.0% | +3.9 | 0.554 | 50 · | |
| Octagon | 58.8% | +0.7 | 0.911 | 51 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 57.6% | -0.5 | 0.939 | 59 · | |
| Single wall | 53.5% | -4.6 | 0.445 | 58 · | |
| Fence and open | 51.7% | -6.4 | 0.473 | 29 · | |
| Half fence | 51.7% | -6.4 | 0.473 | 29 · | |
| Full fence | 51.6% | -6.5 | 0.450 | 31 · | |
| Low fence | 51.1% | -7.0 | 0.304 | 47 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Lion's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 4.07 on 9 df, p 0.907
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 51.6%31 | -10.40.357 | -0.10.993 | -6.00.585 | +0.60.962 | -1.80.869 | -0.10.993 | -12.00.298 | -10.90.323 | -7.20.523 |
| Breakable full fence | +10.40.357 | 62.0%50 | +10.30.372 | +4.40.643 | +10.90.277 | +8.60.370 | +10.30.372 | -1.60.870 | -0.50.958 | +3.20.744 |
| Half fence | +0.10.993 | -10.30.372 | 51.7%29 | -5.90.600 | +0.70.955 | -1.70.879 | +0.01.000 | -11.90.311 | -10.80.339 | -7.10.538 |
| Breakable half fence | +6.00.585 | -4.40.643 | +5.90.600 | 57.6%59 | +6.60.500 | +4.20.649 | +5.90.600 | -6.00.538 | -4.90.594 | -1.20.899 |
| Low fence | -0.60.962 | -10.90.277 | -0.70.955 | -6.60.500 | 51.1%47 | -2.40.808 | -0.70.955 | -12.60.226 | -11.40.243 | -7.80.440 |
| Single wall | +1.80.869 | -8.60.370 | +1.70.879 | -4.20.649 | +2.40.808 | 53.5%58 | +1.70.879 | -10.20.302 | -9.10.328 | -5.40.573 |
| Fence and open | +0.10.993 | -10.30.372 | -0.01.000 | -5.90.600 | +0.70.955 | -1.70.879 | 51.7%29 | -11.90.311 | -10.80.339 | -7.10.538 |
| Open | +12.00.298 | +1.60.870 | +11.90.311 | +6.00.538 | +12.60.226 | +10.20.302 | +11.90.311 | 63.6%44 | +1.10.907 | +4.80.631 |
| Rectangle | +10.90.323 | +0.50.958 | +10.80.339 | +4.90.594 | +11.40.243 | +9.10.328 | +10.80.339 | -1.10.907 | 62.5%56 | +3.70.697 |
| Octagon | +7.20.523 | -3.20.744 | +7.10.538 | +1.20.899 | +7.80.440 | +5.40.573 | +7.10.538 | -4.80.631 | -3.70.697 | 58.8%51 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.