Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Lion vs Pai
Matches counted1,878
Win rate52.8%
Widest swing5.9 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Lion's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single wall | 58.7% | +5.9 | 0.080 | 196 | |
| Fence and open | 58.0% | +5.2 | 0.282 | 100 | |
| Open | 55.2% | +2.4 | 0.475 | 192 | |
| Breakable half fence | 53.6% | +0.9 | 0.797 | 192 | |
| Octagon | 53.4% | +0.6 | 0.853 | 191 | |
| Full fence | 53.1% | +0.3 | 0.931 | 196 | |
| Breakable full fence | 52.9% | +0.1 | 0.974 | 191 | |
| Half fence | 50.7% | -2.1 | 0.595 | 148 | |
| Low fence | 49.0% | -3.8 | 0.262 | 196 | |
| Rectangle | 48.9% | -3.9 | 0.271 | 182 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Lion's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 6.75 on 9 df, p 0.663
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 53.1%196 | +0.20.971 | +2.40.661 | -0.60.908 | +4.10.419 | -5.60.263 | -4.90.419 | -2.10.671 | +4.20.419 | -0.30.946 |
| Breakable full fence | -0.20.971 | 52.9%191 | +2.20.687 | -0.80.881 | +3.90.443 | -5.80.251 | -5.10.405 | -2.30.647 | +4.00.442 | -0.50.918 |
| Half fence | -2.40.661 | -2.20.687 | 50.7%148 | -3.00.587 | +1.70.755 | -8.00.140 | -7.30.257 | -4.50.406 | +1.80.748 | -2.70.618 |
| Breakable half fence | +0.60.908 | +0.80.881 | +3.00.587 | 53.6%192 | +4.70.358 | -5.00.318 | -4.30.478 | -1.60.759 | +4.80.359 | +0.20.962 |
| Low fence | -4.10.419 | -3.90.443 | -1.70.755 | -4.70.358 | 49.0%196 | -9.70.054 | -9.00.142 | -6.20.219 | +0.10.988 | -4.40.384 |
| Single wall | +5.60.263 | +5.80.251 | +8.00.140 | +5.00.318 | +9.70.054 | 58.7%196 | +0.70.911 | +3.50.491 | +9.80.057 | +5.30.296 |
| Fence and open | +4.90.419 | +5.10.405 | +7.30.257 | +4.30.478 | +9.00.142 | -0.70.911 | 58.0%100 | +2.80.648 | +9.10.143 | +4.60.454 |
| Open | +2.10.671 | +2.30.647 | +4.50.406 | +1.60.759 | +6.20.219 | -3.50.491 | -2.80.648 | 55.2%192 | +6.30.222 | +1.80.723 |
| Rectangle | -4.20.419 | -4.00.442 | -1.80.748 | -4.80.359 | -0.10.988 | -9.80.057 | -9.10.143 | -6.30.222 | 48.9%182 | -4.50.385 |
| Octagon | +0.30.946 | +0.50.918 | +2.70.618 | -0.20.962 | +4.40.384 | -5.30.296 | -4.60.454 | -1.80.723 | +4.50.385 | 53.4%191 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted1,539
Win rate53.0%
Widest swing6.9 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Lion's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single wall | 59.9% | +6.9 | 0.053 | 172 | |
| Fence and open | 57.1% | +4.2 | 0.450 | 77 · | |
| Open | 56.7% | +3.7 | 0.323 | 157 | |
| Octagon | 54.7% | +1.7 | 0.648 | 161 | |
| Breakable full fence | 54.5% | +1.6 | 0.677 | 154 | |
| Breakable half fence | 53.6% | +0.6 | 0.868 | 153 | |
| Full fence | 51.3% | -1.7 | 0.658 | 156 | |
| Rectangle | 48.7% | -4.3 | 0.265 | 154 | |
| Low fence | 48.7% | -4.3 | 0.266 | 152 | |
| Half fence | 48.4% | -4.6 | 0.288 | 124 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Lion's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 8.46 on 9 df, p 0.488
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 51.3%156 | -3.30.565 | +2.90.630 | -2.30.684 | +2.60.648 | -8.60.117 | -5.90.399 | -5.40.337 | +2.60.650 | -3.40.547 |
| Breakable full fence | +3.30.565 | 54.5%154 | +6.20.307 | +1.00.867 | +5.90.305 | -5.30.331 | -2.60.708 | -2.10.704 | +5.80.305 | -0.10.984 |
| Half fence | -2.90.630 | -6.20.307 | 48.4%124 | -5.20.389 | -0.30.961 | -11.50.050 | -8.80.227 | -8.30.166 | -0.30.958 | -6.30.293 |
| Breakable half fence | +2.30.684 | -1.00.867 | +5.20.389 | 53.6%153 | +4.90.391 | -6.30.253 | -3.50.610 | -3.10.584 | +4.90.391 | -1.10.850 |
| Low fence | -2.60.648 | -5.90.305 | +0.30.961 | -4.90.391 | 48.7%152 | -11.20.043 | -8.50.226 | -8.00.159 | -0.00.998 | -6.00.290 |
| Single wall | +8.60.117 | +5.30.331 | +11.50.050 | +6.30.253 | +11.20.043 | 59.9%172 | +2.70.684 | +3.20.557 | +11.20.043 | +5.20.335 |
| Fence and open | +5.90.399 | +2.60.708 | +8.80.227 | +3.50.610 | +8.50.226 | -2.70.684 | 57.1%77 | +0.50.947 | +8.40.226 | +2.50.718 |
| Open | +5.40.337 | +2.10.704 | +8.30.166 | +3.10.584 | +8.00.159 | -3.20.557 | -0.50.947 | 56.7%157 | +8.00.158 | +2.00.716 |
| Rectangle | -2.60.650 | -5.80.305 | +0.30.958 | -4.90.391 | +0.00.998 | -11.20.043 | -8.40.226 | -8.00.158 | 48.7%154 | -6.00.290 |
| Octagon | +3.40.547 | +0.10.984 | +6.30.293 | +1.10.850 | +6.00.290 | -5.20.335 | -2.50.718 | -2.00.716 | +6.00.290 | 54.7%161 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted339
Win rate51.9%
Widest swing10.6 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Lion's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Half fence | 62.5% | +10.6 | 0.282 | 24 · | |
| Fence and open | 60.9% | +8.9 | 0.373 | 23 · | |
| Full fence | 60.0% | +8.1 | 0.276 | 40 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 53.9% | +1.9 | 0.798 | 39 · | |
| Low fence | 50.0% | -1.9 | 0.785 | 44 · | |
| Rectangle | 50.0% | -1.9 | 0.832 | 28 · | |
| Single wall | 50.0% | -1.9 | 0.845 | 24 · | |
| Open | 48.6% | -3.4 | 0.676 | 35 · | |
| Octagon | 46.7% | -5.2 | 0.547 | 30 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 46.0% | -6.0 | 0.441 | 37 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Lion's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 4.04 on 9 df, p 0.909
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 60.0%40 | +14.10.217 | -2.50.843 | +6.20.581 | +10.00.358 | +10.00.435 | -0.90.946 | +11.40.321 | +10.00.414 | +13.30.268 |
| Breakable full fence | -14.10.217 | 46.0%37 | -16.60.206 | -7.90.491 | -4.00.716 | -4.00.757 | -14.90.261 | -2.60.824 | -4.00.746 | -0.70.953 |
| Half fence | +2.50.843 | +16.60.206 | 62.5%24 | +8.70.500 | +12.50.323 | +12.50.383 | +1.60.908 | +13.90.291 | +12.50.366 | +15.80.246 |
| Breakable half fence | -6.20.581 | +7.90.491 | -8.70.500 | 53.9%39 | +3.90.726 | +3.90.767 | -7.00.590 | +5.30.650 | +3.90.756 | +7.20.554 |
| Low fence | -10.00.358 | +4.00.716 | -12.50.323 | -3.90.726 | 50.0%44 | +0.01.000 | -10.90.397 | +1.40.900 | +0.01.000 | +3.30.778 |
| Single wall | -10.00.435 | +4.00.757 | -12.50.383 | -3.90.767 | -0.01.000 | 50.0%24 | -10.90.454 | +1.40.914 | +0.01.000 | +3.30.808 |
| Fence and open | +0.90.946 | +14.90.261 | -1.60.908 | +7.00.590 | +10.90.397 | +10.90.454 | 60.9%23 | +12.30.358 | +10.90.438 | +14.20.305 |
| Open | -11.40.321 | +2.60.824 | -13.90.291 | -5.30.650 | -1.40.900 | -1.40.914 | -12.30.358 | 48.6%35 | -1.40.910 | +1.90.878 |
| Rectangle | -10.00.414 | +4.00.746 | -12.50.366 | -3.90.756 | -0.01.000 | -0.01.000 | -10.90.438 | +1.40.910 | 50.0%28 | +3.30.800 |
| Octagon | -13.30.268 | +0.70.953 | -15.80.246 | -7.20.554 | -3.30.778 | -3.30.808 | -14.20.305 | -1.90.878 | -3.30.800 | 46.7%30 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.