Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Lau vs Wolf
Matches counted2,679
Win rate52.3%
Widest swing-10.4 pts
Survive correction1
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Lau's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Octagon | 56.8% | +4.5 | 0.121 | 266 | |
| Breakable full fence | 55.2% | +2.9 | 0.340 | 241 | |
| Open | 54.1% | +1.9 | 0.518 | 266 | |
| Rectangle | 53.9% | +1.7 | 0.583 | 241 | |
| Breakable half fence | 53.9% | +1.6 | 0.579 | 256 | |
| Full fence | 53.8% | +1.6 | 0.565 | 301 | |
| Single wall | 52.8% | +0.6 | 0.849 | 267 | |
| Fence and open | 51.6% | -0.7 | 0.872 | 128 | |
| Half fence | 48.2% | -4.1 | 0.153 | 274 | |
| Low fence | 41.8% | -10.4 | <0.001 | 287 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Lau's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 18.64 on 9 df, p 0.029
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 53.8%301 | -1.40.751 | +5.60.176 | -0.10.984 | +12.00.004 | +1.00.809 | +2.30.668 | -0.30.940 | -0.10.978 | -3.00.481 |
| Breakable full fence | +1.40.751 | 55.2%241 | +7.00.112 | +1.30.774 | +13.40.002 | +2.40.591 | +3.60.506 | +1.10.812 | +1.20.784 | -1.60.720 |
| Half fence | -5.60.176 | -7.00.112 | 48.2%274 | -5.70.187 | +6.40.130 | -4.60.281 | -3.40.527 | -6.00.166 | -5.80.191 | -8.60.046 |
| Breakable half fence | +0.10.984 | -1.30.774 | +5.70.187 | 53.9%256 | +12.10.005 | +1.10.801 | +2.40.664 | -0.20.958 | -0.00.994 | -2.90.511 |
| Low fence | -12.00.004 | -13.40.002 | -6.40.130 | -12.10.005 | 41.8%287 | -11.00.010 | -9.80.065 | -12.30.004 | -12.10.005 | -15.0<0.001 |
| Single wall | -1.00.809 | -2.40.591 | +4.60.281 | -1.10.801 | +11.00.010 | 52.8%267 | +1.20.816 | -1.30.759 | -1.10.798 | -4.00.359 |
| Fence and open | -2.30.668 | -3.60.506 | +3.40.527 | -2.40.664 | +9.80.065 | -1.20.816 | 51.6%128 | -2.60.632 | -2.40.663 | -5.20.331 |
| Open | +0.30.940 | -1.10.812 | +6.00.166 | +0.20.958 | +12.30.004 | +1.30.759 | +2.60.632 | 54.1%266 | +0.20.965 | -2.60.541 |
| Rectangle | +0.10.978 | -1.20.784 | +5.80.191 | +0.00.994 | +12.10.005 | +1.10.798 | +2.40.663 | -0.20.965 | 53.9%241 | -2.80.523 |
| Octagon | +3.00.481 | +1.60.720 | +8.60.046 | +2.90.511 | +15.0<0.001 | +4.00.359 | +5.20.331 | +2.60.541 | +2.80.523 | 56.8%266 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted2,322
Win rate52.4%
Widest swing-10.0 pts
Survive correction1
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Lau's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Octagon | 56.1% | +3.7 | 0.242 | 221 | |
| Breakable half fence | 55.3% | +2.9 | 0.357 | 228 | |
| Full fence | 54.8% | +2.4 | 0.406 | 261 | |
| Rectangle | 54.0% | +1.6 | 0.629 | 200 | |
| Single wall | 53.8% | +1.4 | 0.651 | 240 | |
| Fence and open | 53.5% | +1.1 | 0.803 | 114 | |
| Open | 53.0% | +0.7 | 0.835 | 232 | |
| Breakable full fence | 53.0% | +0.6 | 0.852 | 219 | |
| Half fence | 47.5% | -4.9 | 0.129 | 219 | |
| Low fence | 42.4% | -10.0 | <0.001 | 255 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Lau's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 15.45 on 9 df, p 0.079
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 54.8%261 | +1.80.690 | +7.30.111 | -0.50.916 | +12.40.005 | +1.00.816 | +1.30.819 | +1.80.694 | +0.80.866 | -1.30.772 |
| Breakable full fence | -1.80.690 | 53.0%219 | +5.50.251 | -2.30.626 | +10.60.021 | -0.80.867 | -0.50.925 | -0.10.992 | -1.00.832 | -3.10.508 |
| Half fence | -7.30.111 | -5.50.251 | 47.5%219 | -7.80.100 | +5.10.262 | -6.30.180 | -6.00.297 | -5.50.241 | -6.50.183 | -8.60.070 |
| Breakable half fence | +0.50.916 | +2.30.626 | +7.80.100 | 55.3%228 | +12.90.005 | +1.50.742 | +1.80.759 | +2.20.629 | +1.30.793 | -0.80.857 |
| Low fence | -12.40.005 | -10.60.021 | -5.10.262 | -12.90.005 | 42.4%255 | -11.40.011 | -11.20.047 | -10.70.019 | -11.70.014 | -13.80.003 |
| Single wall | -1.00.816 | +0.80.867 | +6.30.180 | -1.50.742 | +11.40.011 | 53.8%240 | +0.20.966 | +0.70.873 | -0.20.958 | -2.40.611 |
| Fence and open | -1.30.819 | +0.50.925 | +6.00.297 | -1.80.759 | +11.20.047 | -0.20.966 | 53.5%114 | +0.50.931 | -0.50.933 | -2.60.650 |
| Open | -1.80.694 | +0.10.992 | +5.50.241 | -2.20.629 | +10.70.019 | -0.70.873 | -0.50.931 | 53.0%232 | -1.00.838 | -3.10.509 |
| Rectangle | -0.80.866 | +1.00.832 | +6.50.183 | -1.30.793 | +11.70.014 | +0.20.958 | +0.50.933 | +1.00.838 | 54.0%200 | -2.10.664 |
| Octagon | +1.30.772 | +3.10.508 | +8.60.070 | +0.80.857 | +13.80.003 | +2.40.611 | +2.60.650 | +3.10.509 | +2.10.664 | 56.1%221 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted357
Win rate51.5%
Widest swing25.7 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Lau's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakable full fence | 77.3% | +25.7 | 0.013 | 22 · | |
| Open | 61.8% | +10.2 | 0.210 | 34 · | |
| Octagon | 60.0% | +8.5 | 0.225 | 45 · | |
| Rectangle | 53.7% | +2.1 | 0.773 | 41 · | |
| Half fence | 50.9% | -0.6 | 0.919 | 55 · | |
| Full fence | 47.5% | -4.0 | 0.587 | 40 · | |
| Single wall | 44.4% | -7.1 | 0.443 | 27 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 42.9% | -8.7 | 0.338 | 28 · | |
| Low fence | 37.5% | -14.0 | 0.096 | 32 · | |
| Fence and open | 35.7% | -15.8 | 0.227 | 14 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Lau's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 14.21 on 9 df, p 0.115
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 47.5%40 | -29.80.023 | -3.40.743 | +4.60.705 | +10.00.394 | +3.10.806 | +11.80.445 | -14.30.220 | -6.20.579 | -12.50.248 |
| Breakable full fence | +29.80.023 | 77.3%22 | +26.40.034 | +34.40.014 | +39.80.004 | +32.80.020 | +41.60.013 | +15.50.225 | +23.60.066 | +17.30.162 |
| Half fence | +3.40.743 | -26.40.034 | 50.9%55 | +8.10.488 | +13.40.226 | +6.50.582 | +15.20.310 | -10.80.317 | -2.80.790 | -9.10.363 |
| Breakable half fence | -4.60.705 | -34.40.014 | -8.10.488 | 42.9%28 | +5.40.673 | -1.60.906 | +7.20.657 | -18.90.138 | -10.80.378 | -17.10.153 |
| Low fence | -10.00.394 | -39.80.004 | -13.40.226 | -5.40.673 | 37.5%32 | -6.90.589 | +1.80.908 | -24.30.049 | -16.20.170 | -22.50.052 |
| Single wall | -3.10.806 | -32.80.020 | -6.50.582 | +1.60.906 | +6.90.589 | 44.4%27 | +8.70.591 | -17.30.178 | -9.20.457 | -15.60.200 |
| Fence and open | -11.80.445 | -41.60.013 | -15.20.310 | -7.20.657 | -1.80.908 | -8.70.591 | 35.7%14 | -26.10.100 | -17.90.246 | -24.30.111 |
| Open | +14.30.220 | -15.50.225 | +10.80.317 | +18.90.138 | +24.30.049 | +17.30.178 | +26.10.100 | 61.8%34 | +8.10.480 | +1.80.874 |
| Rectangle | +6.20.579 | -23.60.066 | +2.80.790 | +10.80.378 | +16.20.170 | +9.20.457 | +17.90.246 | -8.10.480 | 53.7%41 | -6.30.553 |
| Octagon | +12.50.248 | -17.30.162 | +9.10.363 | +17.10.153 | +22.50.052 | +15.60.200 | +24.30.111 | -1.80.874 | +6.30.553 | 60.0%45 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.