Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Lau vs Shun
Matches counted2,809
Win rate51.7%
Widest swing4.9 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Lau's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 56.5% | +4.9 | 0.078 | 290 | |
| Fence and open | 55.6% | +4.0 | 0.346 | 133 | |
| Single wall | 54.7% | +3.0 | 0.309 | 256 | |
| Breakable half fence | 53.4% | +1.7 | 0.542 | 281 | |
| Breakable full fence | 53.3% | +1.6 | 0.554 | 287 | |
| Rectangle | 51.4% | -0.3 | 0.921 | 257 | |
| Open | 51.0% | -0.6 | 0.818 | 294 | |
| Octagon | 49.3% | -2.4 | 0.399 | 290 | |
| Half fence | 48.0% | -3.7 | 0.180 | 298 | |
| Low fence | 47.7% | -4.0 | 0.161 | 281 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Lau's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 9.25 on 9 df, p 0.414
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 56.5%290 | +3.20.434 | +8.60.038 | +3.20.446 | +8.90.034 | +1.90.662 | +0.90.861 | +5.50.180 | +5.20.224 | +7.20.081 |
| Breakable full fence | -3.20.434 | 53.3%287 | +5.30.198 | -0.10.987 | +5.60.180 | -1.40.748 | -2.30.656 | +2.30.581 | +1.90.650 | +4.00.337 |
| Half fence | -8.60.038 | -5.30.198 | 48.0%298 | -5.40.194 | +0.30.942 | -6.70.116 | -7.70.142 | -3.00.460 | -3.40.428 | -1.30.748 |
| Breakable half fence | -3.20.446 | +0.10.987 | +5.40.194 | 53.4%281 | +5.70.177 | -1.30.762 | -2.30.667 | +2.40.571 | +2.00.640 | +4.10.331 |
| Low fence | -8.90.034 | -5.60.180 | -0.30.942 | -5.70.177 | 47.7%281 | -7.00.105 | -8.00.131 | -3.30.424 | -3.70.394 | -1.60.698 |
| Single wall | -1.90.662 | +1.40.748 | +6.70.116 | +1.30.762 | +7.00.105 | 54.7%256 | -0.90.858 | +3.70.390 | +3.30.450 | +5.40.210 |
| Fence and open | -0.90.861 | +2.30.656 | +7.70.142 | +2.30.667 | +8.00.131 | +0.90.858 | 55.6%133 | +4.60.376 | +4.30.422 | +6.30.227 |
| Open | -5.50.180 | -2.30.581 | +3.00.460 | -2.40.571 | +3.30.424 | -3.70.390 | -4.60.376 | 51.0%294 | -0.30.936 | +1.70.679 |
| Rectangle | -5.20.224 | -1.90.650 | +3.40.428 | -2.00.640 | +3.70.394 | -3.30.450 | -4.30.422 | +0.30.936 | 51.4%257 | +2.00.632 |
| Octagon | -7.20.081 | -4.00.337 | +1.30.748 | -4.10.331 | +1.60.698 | -5.40.210 | -6.30.227 | -1.70.679 | -2.00.632 | 49.3%290 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted2,139
Win rate50.8%
Widest swing5.3 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Lau's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 56.1% | +5.3 | 0.088 | 230 | |
| Rectangle | 52.5% | +1.7 | 0.630 | 181 | |
| Breakable half fence | 52.4% | +1.6 | 0.626 | 212 | |
| Open | 52.2% | +1.4 | 0.652 | 230 | |
| Breakable full fence | 51.7% | +0.9 | 0.766 | 238 | |
| Fence and open | 51.1% | +0.4 | 0.944 | 88 | |
| Single wall | 51.0% | +0.3 | 0.940 | 194 | |
| Octagon | 48.0% | -2.8 | 0.378 | 221 | |
| Half fence | 47.6% | -3.2 | 0.309 | 229 | |
| Low fence | 46.7% | -4.0 | 0.212 | 214 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Lau's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 6.30 on 9 df, p 0.710
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 56.1%230 | +4.40.339 | +8.50.069 | +3.70.432 | +9.40.049 | +5.10.298 | +5.00.428 | +3.90.400 | +3.60.467 | +8.10.084 |
| Breakable full fence | -4.40.339 | 51.7%238 | +4.10.378 | -0.70.886 | +5.00.293 | +0.70.893 | +0.50.930 | -0.50.915 | -0.80.870 | +3.70.426 |
| Half fence | -8.50.069 | -4.10.378 | 47.6%229 | -4.80.318 | +0.90.855 | -3.40.482 | -3.50.572 | -4.60.327 | -4.90.326 | -0.40.938 |
| Breakable half fence | -3.70.432 | +0.70.886 | +4.80.318 | 52.4%212 | +5.60.245 | +1.30.789 | +1.20.847 | +0.20.969 | -0.10.980 | +4.40.361 |
| Low fence | -9.40.049 | -5.00.293 | -0.90.855 | -5.60.245 | 46.7%214 | -4.30.385 | -4.40.486 | -5.40.252 | -5.80.254 | -1.20.797 |
| Single wall | -5.10.298 | -0.70.893 | +3.40.482 | -1.30.789 | +4.30.385 | 51.0%194 | -0.10.987 | -1.10.814 | -1.50.778 | +3.10.533 |
| Fence and open | -5.00.428 | -0.50.930 | +3.50.572 | -1.20.847 | +4.40.486 | +0.10.987 | 51.1%88 | -1.00.868 | -1.40.835 | +3.20.615 |
| Open | -3.90.400 | +0.50.915 | +4.60.327 | -0.20.969 | +5.40.252 | +1.10.814 | +1.00.868 | 52.2%230 | -0.30.950 | +4.20.371 |
| Rectangle | -3.60.467 | +0.80.870 | +4.90.326 | +0.10.980 | +5.80.254 | +1.50.778 | +1.40.835 | +0.30.950 | 52.5%181 | +4.50.367 |
| Octagon | -8.10.084 | -3.70.426 | +0.40.938 | -4.40.361 | +1.20.797 | -3.10.533 | -3.20.615 | -4.20.371 | -4.50.367 | 48.0%221 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted670
Win rate54.5%
Widest swing11.7 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Lau's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single wall | 66.1% | +11.7 | 0.053 | 62 · | |
| Fence and open | 64.4% | +10.0 | 0.165 | 45 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 61.2% | +6.7 | 0.325 | 49 · | |
| Full fence | 58.3% | +3.9 | 0.530 | 60 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 56.5% | +2.0 | 0.719 | 69 · | |
| Octagon | 53.6% | -0.9 | 0.880 | 69 · | |
| Low fence | 50.8% | -3.7 | 0.518 | 67 · | |
| Half fence | 49.3% | -5.2 | 0.360 | 69 · | |
| Rectangle | 48.7% | -5.8 | 0.281 | 76 · | |
| Open | 46.9% | -7.6 | 0.199 | 64 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Lau's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 10.21 on 9 df, p 0.334
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 58.3%60 | -2.90.760 | +9.10.304 | +1.80.836 | +7.60.391 | -7.80.374 | -6.10.525 | +11.40.202 | +9.70.263 | +4.70.591 |
| Breakable full fence | +2.90.760 | 61.2%49 | +11.90.199 | +4.70.609 | +10.50.262 | -4.90.593 | -3.20.747 | +14.30.130 | +12.50.170 | +7.60.411 |
| Half fence | -9.10.304 | -11.90.199 | 49.3%69 | -7.20.394 | -1.50.864 | -16.90.052 | -15.20.111 | +2.40.782 | +0.60.943 | -4.30.609 |
| Breakable half fence | -1.80.836 | -4.70.609 | +7.20.394 | 56.5%69 | +5.80.499 | -9.60.260 | -7.90.399 | +9.60.266 | +7.80.345 | +2.90.732 |
| Low fence | -7.60.391 | -10.50.262 | +1.50.864 | -5.80.499 | 50.8%67 | -15.40.077 | -13.70.152 | +3.90.658 | +2.10.806 | -2.90.737 |
| Single wall | +7.80.374 | +4.90.593 | +16.90.052 | +9.60.260 | +15.40.077 | 66.1%62 | +1.70.856 | +19.20.029 | +17.40.040 | +12.50.145 |
| Fence and open | +6.10.525 | +3.20.747 | +15.20.111 | +7.90.399 | +13.70.152 | -1.70.856 | 64.4%45 | +17.60.070 | +15.80.092 | +10.80.253 |
| Open | -11.40.202 | -14.30.130 | -2.40.782 | -9.60.266 | -3.90.658 | -19.20.029 | -17.60.070 | 46.9%64 | -1.80.831 | -6.70.437 |
| Rectangle | -9.70.263 | -12.50.170 | -0.60.943 | -7.80.345 | -2.10.806 | -17.40.040 | -15.80.092 | +1.80.831 | 48.7%76 | -4.90.552 |
| Octagon | -4.70.591 | -7.60.411 | +4.30.609 | -2.90.732 | +2.90.737 | -12.50.145 | -10.80.253 | +6.70.437 | +4.90.552 | 53.6%69 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.