Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Kage vs Wolf
Matches counted2,946
Win rate54.4%
Widest swing4.1 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Kage's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low fence | 58.5% | +4.1 | 0.132 | 299 | |
| Single wall | 58.3% | +3.9 | 0.160 | 288 | |
| Full fence | 55.8% | +1.4 | 0.598 | 319 | |
| Breakable half fence | 55.6% | +1.2 | 0.664 | 284 | |
| Half fence | 55.4% | +0.9 | 0.745 | 271 | |
| Fence and open | 55.1% | +0.7 | 0.873 | 138 | |
| Octagon | 53.4% | -1.0 | 0.711 | 320 | |
| Breakable full fence | 53.3% | -1.1 | 0.701 | 272 | |
| Rectangle | 51.4% | -3.0 | 0.295 | 278 | |
| Open | 50.5% | -4.0 | 0.125 | 331 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Kage's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 7.63 on 9 df, p 0.572
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 55.8%319 | +2.50.544 | +0.50.913 | +0.20.967 | -2.70.493 | -2.50.529 | +0.70.886 | +5.30.172 | +4.40.286 | +2.40.549 |
| Breakable full fence | -2.50.544 | 53.3%272 | -2.00.633 | -2.30.582 | -5.20.209 | -5.00.231 | -1.80.735 | +2.90.485 | +1.90.661 | -0.10.975 |
| Half fence | -0.50.913 | +2.00.633 | 55.4%271 | -0.30.946 | -3.20.444 | -3.00.477 | +0.30.957 | +4.90.231 | +3.90.358 | +1.90.642 |
| Breakable half fence | -0.20.967 | +2.30.582 | +0.30.946 | 55.6%284 | -2.90.480 | -2.70.514 | +0.60.913 | +5.20.199 | +4.20.319 | +2.20.589 |
| Low fence | +2.70.493 | +5.20.209 | +3.20.444 | +2.90.480 | 58.5%299 | +0.20.962 | +3.50.497 | +8.10.042 | +7.10.087 | +5.10.202 |
| Single wall | +2.50.529 | +5.00.231 | +3.00.477 | +2.70.514 | -0.20.962 | 58.3%288 | +3.30.524 | +7.90.050 | +6.90.099 | +4.90.225 |
| Fence and open | -0.70.886 | +1.80.735 | -0.30.957 | -0.60.913 | -3.50.497 | -3.30.524 | 55.1%138 | +4.60.362 | +3.60.485 | +1.60.747 |
| Open | -5.30.172 | -2.90.485 | -4.90.231 | -5.20.199 | -8.10.042 | -7.90.050 | -4.60.362 | 50.5%331 | -1.00.809 | -3.00.446 |
| Rectangle | -4.40.286 | -1.90.661 | -3.90.358 | -4.20.319 | -7.10.087 | -6.90.099 | -3.60.485 | +1.00.809 | 51.4%278 | -2.00.625 |
| Octagon | -2.40.549 | +0.10.975 | -1.90.642 | -2.20.589 | -5.10.202 | -4.90.225 | -1.60.747 | +3.00.446 | +2.00.625 | 53.4%320 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted2,554
Win rate54.1%
Widest swing5.1 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Kage's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single wall | 59.2% | +5.1 | 0.087 | 250 | |
| Low fence | 57.7% | +3.7 | 0.206 | 265 | |
| Breakable half fence | 57.1% | +3.0 | 0.325 | 240 | |
| Half fence | 55.0% | +0.9 | 0.762 | 229 | |
| Full fence | 54.7% | +0.7 | 0.811 | 285 | |
| Breakable full fence | 54.1% | +0.0 | 0.993 | 244 | |
| Octagon | 52.1% | -2.0 | 0.486 | 267 | |
| Fence and open | 51.7% | -2.4 | 0.604 | 116 | |
| Open | 50.4% | -3.7 | 0.178 | 288 | |
| Rectangle | 49.6% | -4.5 | 0.143 | 240 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Kage's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 9.31 on 9 df, p 0.409
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 54.7%285 | +0.60.883 | -0.30.949 | -2.30.590 | -3.00.479 | -4.50.298 | +3.00.583 | +4.40.293 | +5.20.239 | +2.70.529 |
| Breakable full fence | -0.60.883 | 54.1%244 | -0.90.840 | -3.00.509 | -3.60.409 | -5.10.253 | +2.40.673 | +3.80.388 | +4.50.320 | +2.00.645 |
| Half fence | +0.30.949 | +0.90.840 | 55.0%229 | -2.10.653 | -2.70.544 | -4.20.356 | +3.30.562 | +4.70.290 | +5.40.239 | +3.00.510 |
| Breakable half fence | +2.30.590 | +3.00.509 | +2.10.653 | 57.1%240 | -0.70.882 | -2.10.635 | +5.40.340 | +6.70.122 | +7.50.100 | +5.00.257 |
| Low fence | +3.00.479 | +3.60.409 | +2.70.544 | +0.70.882 | 57.7%265 | -1.50.736 | +6.00.277 | +7.40.082 | +8.20.066 | +5.70.188 |
| Single wall | +4.50.298 | +5.10.253 | +4.20.356 | +2.10.635 | +1.50.736 | 59.2%250 | +7.50.179 | +8.80.040 | +9.60.033 | +7.10.103 |
| Fence and open | -3.00.583 | -2.40.673 | -3.30.562 | -5.40.340 | -6.00.277 | -7.50.179 | 51.7%116 | +1.40.802 | +2.10.705 | -0.30.952 |
| Open | -4.40.293 | -3.80.388 | -4.70.290 | -6.70.122 | -7.40.082 | -8.80.040 | -1.40.802 | 50.4%288 | +0.80.861 | -1.70.687 |
| Rectangle | -5.20.239 | -4.50.320 | -5.40.239 | -7.50.100 | -8.20.066 | -9.60.033 | -2.10.705 | -0.80.861 | 49.6%240 | -2.50.578 |
| Octagon | -2.70.529 | -2.00.645 | -3.00.510 | -5.00.257 | -5.70.188 | -7.10.103 | +0.30.952 | +1.70.687 | +2.50.578 | 52.1%267 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted392
Win rate56.6%
Widest swing16.1 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Kage's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 72.7% | +16.1 | 0.117 | 22 · | |
| Full fence | 64.7% | +8.1 | 0.320 | 34 · | |
| Low fence | 64.7% | +8.1 | 0.320 | 34 · | |
| Rectangle | 63.2% | +6.5 | 0.393 | 38 · | |
| Octagon | 60.4% | +3.8 | 0.554 | 53 · | |
| Half fence | 57.1% | +0.5 | 0.944 | 42 · | |
| Single wall | 52.6% | -4.0 | 0.600 | 38 · | |
| Open | 51.2% | -5.5 | 0.443 | 43 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 47.7% | -8.9 | 0.206 | 44 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 46.4% | -10.2 | 0.258 | 28 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Kage's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 8.41 on 9 df, p 0.494
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 64.7%34 | +18.30.149 | +7.60.502 | +17.00.135 | +0.01.000 | +12.10.300 | -8.00.530 | +13.60.233 | +1.60.891 | +4.30.685 |
| Breakable full fence | -18.30.149 | 46.4%28 | -10.70.379 | -1.30.914 | -18.30.149 | -6.20.618 | -26.30.061 | -4.70.697 | -16.70.176 | -13.90.230 |
| Half fence | -7.60.502 | +10.70.379 | 57.1%42 | +9.40.382 | -7.60.502 | +4.50.685 | -15.60.221 | +6.00.580 | -6.00.583 | -3.20.750 |
| Breakable half fence | -17.00.135 | +1.30.914 | -9.40.382 | 47.7%44 | -17.00.135 | -4.90.658 | -25.00.054 | -3.40.749 | -15.40.161 | -12.70.213 |
| Low fence | -0.01.000 | +18.30.149 | +7.60.502 | +17.00.135 | 64.7%34 | +12.10.300 | -8.00.530 | +13.60.233 | +1.60.891 | +4.30.685 |
| Single wall | -12.10.300 | +6.20.618 | -4.50.685 | +4.90.658 | -12.10.300 | 52.6%38 | -20.10.126 | +1.50.895 | -10.50.353 | -7.80.462 |
| Fence and open | +8.00.530 | +26.30.061 | +15.60.221 | +25.00.054 | +8.00.530 | +20.10.126 | 72.7%22 | +21.60.095 | +9.60.449 | +12.30.310 |
| Open | -13.60.233 | +4.70.697 | -6.00.580 | +3.40.749 | -13.60.233 | -1.50.895 | -21.60.095 | 51.2%43 | -12.00.277 | -9.20.365 |
| Rectangle | -1.60.891 | +16.70.176 | +6.00.583 | +15.40.161 | -1.60.891 | +10.50.353 | -9.60.449 | +12.00.277 | 63.2%38 | +2.80.788 |
| Octagon | -4.30.685 | +13.90.230 | +3.20.750 | +12.70.213 | -4.30.685 | +7.80.462 | -12.30.310 | +9.20.365 | -2.80.788 | 60.4%53 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.