Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Kage vs Vanessa
Matches counted1,946
Win rate52.3%
Widest swing6.3 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Kage's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 58.6% | +6.3 | 0.081 | 174 | |
| Half fence | 57.1% | +4.8 | 0.153 | 196 | |
| Breakable full fence | 55.2% | +2.9 | 0.429 | 174 | |
| Fence and open | 54.8% | +2.5 | 0.585 | 115 | |
| Open | 53.1% | +0.8 | 0.812 | 192 | |
| Breakable half fence | 52.7% | +0.4 | 0.914 | 186 | |
| Rectangle | 52.1% | -0.2 | 0.951 | 213 | |
| Single wall | 49.1% | -3.2 | 0.302 | 232 | |
| Octagon | 48.1% | -4.2 | 0.228 | 189 | |
| Low fence | 46.0% | -6.3 | 0.069 | 189 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Kage's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 10.75 on 9 df, p 0.293
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 58.6%174 | +3.50.516 | +1.50.774 | +5.90.258 | +12.60.016 | +9.50.058 | +3.80.519 | +5.50.290 | +6.50.200 | +10.50.046 |
| Breakable full fence | -3.50.516 | 55.2%174 | -2.00.703 | +2.50.637 | +9.10.082 | +6.00.229 | +0.40.948 | +2.00.695 | +3.10.548 | +7.00.181 |
| Half fence | -1.50.774 | +2.00.703 | 57.1%196 | +4.50.382 | +11.10.029 | +8.00.098 | +2.40.685 | +4.00.426 | +5.00.307 | +9.00.077 |
| Breakable half fence | -5.90.258 | -2.50.637 | -4.50.382 | 52.7%186 | +6.70.197 | +3.50.471 | -2.10.723 | -0.40.932 | +0.60.909 | +4.50.379 |
| Low fence | -12.60.016 | -9.10.082 | -11.10.029 | -6.70.197 | 46.0%189 | -3.10.526 | -8.80.139 | -7.10.166 | -6.10.224 | -2.10.680 |
| Single wall | -9.50.058 | -6.00.229 | -8.00.098 | -3.50.471 | +3.10.526 | 49.1%232 | -5.60.322 | -4.00.414 | -3.00.531 | +1.00.840 |
| Fence and open | -3.80.519 | -0.40.948 | -2.40.685 | +2.10.723 | +8.80.139 | +5.60.322 | 54.8%115 | +1.70.778 | +2.70.644 | +6.60.262 |
| Open | -5.50.290 | -2.00.695 | -4.00.426 | +0.40.932 | +7.10.166 | +4.00.414 | -1.70.778 | 53.1%192 | +1.00.839 | +5.00.331 |
| Rectangle | -6.50.200 | -3.10.548 | -5.00.307 | -0.60.909 | +6.10.224 | +3.00.531 | -2.70.644 | -1.00.839 | 52.1%213 | +4.00.427 |
| Octagon | -10.50.046 | -7.00.181 | -9.00.077 | -4.50.379 | +2.10.680 | -1.00.840 | -6.60.262 | -5.00.331 | -4.00.427 | 48.1%189 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted1,451
Win rate51.0%
Widest swing-8.5 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Kage's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Half fence | 58.9% | +7.9 | 0.039 | 151 | |
| Full fence | 55.9% | +4.9 | 0.247 | 127 | |
| Breakable full fence | 54.7% | +3.7 | 0.382 | 128 | |
| Open | 53.9% | +2.9 | 0.447 | 154 | |
| Fence and open | 53.3% | +2.3 | 0.654 | 92 | |
| Breakable half fence | 52.0% | +1.0 | 0.819 | 127 | |
| Rectangle | 49.7% | -1.3 | 0.721 | 167 | |
| Single wall | 47.5% | -3.5 | 0.347 | 158 | |
| Octagon | 45.3% | -5.7 | 0.158 | 137 | |
| Low fence | 42.5% | -8.5 | 0.030 | 146 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Kage's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 13.43 on 9 df, p 0.144
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 55.9%127 | +1.20.845 | -3.00.610 | +3.90.529 | +13.40.027 | +8.40.157 | +2.60.698 | +2.00.736 | +6.20.291 | +10.70.084 |
| Breakable full fence | -1.20.845 | 54.7%128 | -4.20.475 | +2.70.663 | +12.20.043 | +7.20.225 | +1.40.834 | +0.80.894 | +5.00.396 | +9.40.125 |
| Half fence | +3.00.610 | +4.20.475 | 58.9%151 | +7.00.244 | +16.50.005 | +11.50.043 | +5.70.386 | +5.00.374 | +9.20.099 | +13.70.020 |
| Breakable half fence | -3.90.529 | -2.70.663 | -7.00.244 | 52.0%127 | +9.50.117 | +4.50.450 | -1.30.850 | -1.90.747 | +2.30.700 | +6.70.276 |
| Low fence | -13.40.027 | -12.20.043 | -16.50.005 | -9.50.117 | 42.5%146 | -5.00.381 | -10.80.104 | -11.40.048 | -7.20.200 | -2.80.636 |
| Single wall | -8.40.157 | -7.20.225 | -11.50.043 | -4.50.450 | +5.00.381 | 47.5%158 | -5.80.377 | -6.40.256 | -2.20.687 | +2.20.704 |
| Fence and open | -2.60.698 | -1.40.834 | -5.70.386 | +1.30.850 | +10.80.104 | +5.80.377 | 53.3%92 | -0.60.923 | +3.60.583 | +8.00.235 |
| Open | -2.00.736 | -0.80.894 | -5.00.374 | +1.90.747 | +11.40.048 | +6.40.256 | +0.60.923 | 53.9%154 | +4.20.452 | +8.60.141 |
| Rectangle | -6.20.291 | -5.00.396 | -9.20.099 | -2.30.700 | +7.20.200 | +2.20.687 | -3.60.583 | -4.20.452 | 49.7%167 | +4.40.440 |
| Octagon | -10.70.084 | -9.40.125 | -13.70.020 | -6.70.276 | +2.80.636 | -2.20.704 | -8.00.235 | -8.60.141 | -4.40.440 | 45.3%137 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted495
Win rate56.2%
Widest swing9.8 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Kage's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 66.0% | +9.8 | 0.155 | 47 · | |
| Fence and open | 60.9% | +4.7 | 0.641 | 23 · | |
| Rectangle | 60.9% | +4.7 | 0.499 | 46 · | |
| Low fence | 58.1% | +2.0 | 0.784 | 43 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 56.5% | +0.4 | 0.959 | 46 · | |
| Octagon | 55.8% | -0.4 | 0.952 | 52 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 54.2% | -1.9 | 0.751 | 59 · | |
| Single wall | 52.7% | -3.5 | 0.516 | 74 · | |
| Half fence | 51.1% | -5.0 | 0.474 | 45 · | |
| Open | 50.0% | -6.2 | 0.426 | 38 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Kage's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 4.03 on 9 df, p 0.910
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 66.0%47 | +9.40.350 | +14.80.148 | +11.70.222 | +7.80.445 | +13.30.150 | +5.10.676 | +16.00.137 | +5.10.610 | +10.20.300 |
| Breakable full fence | -9.40.350 | 56.5%46 | +5.40.605 | +2.30.815 | -1.60.877 | +3.80.683 | -4.30.730 | +6.50.551 | -4.30.672 | +0.80.940 |
| Half fence | -14.80.148 | -5.40.605 | 51.1%45 | -3.10.752 | -7.00.508 | -1.60.866 | -9.80.445 | +1.10.920 | -9.80.348 | -4.70.646 |
| Breakable half fence | -11.70.222 | -2.30.815 | +3.10.752 | 54.2%59 | -3.90.695 | +1.50.860 | -6.60.587 | +4.20.683 | -6.60.496 | -1.50.871 |
| Low fence | -7.80.445 | +1.60.877 | +7.00.508 | +3.90.695 | 58.1%43 | +5.40.569 | -2.70.830 | +8.10.463 | -2.70.793 | +2.40.816 |
| Single wall | -13.30.150 | -3.80.683 | +1.60.866 | -1.50.860 | -5.40.569 | 52.7%74 | -8.20.492 | +2.70.786 | -8.20.381 | -3.10.734 |
| Fence and open | -5.10.676 | +4.30.730 | +9.80.445 | +6.60.587 | +2.70.830 | +8.20.492 | 60.9%23 | +10.90.409 | +0.01.000 | +5.10.680 |
| Open | -16.00.137 | -6.50.551 | -1.10.920 | -4.20.683 | -8.10.463 | -2.70.786 | -10.90.409 | 50.0%38 | -10.90.318 | -5.80.588 |
| Rectangle | -5.10.610 | +4.30.672 | +9.80.348 | +6.60.496 | +2.70.793 | +8.20.381 | -0.01.000 | +10.90.318 | 60.9%46 | +5.10.609 |
| Octagon | -10.20.300 | -0.80.940 | +4.70.646 | +1.50.871 | -2.40.816 | +3.10.734 | -5.10.680 | +5.80.588 | -5.10.609 | 55.8%52 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.