Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Kage vs Shun
Matches counted2,519
Win rate52.6%
Widest swing-6.8 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Kage's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 59.0% | +6.4 | 0.146 | 122 | |
| Low fence | 55.8% | +3.2 | 0.300 | 231 | |
| Full fence | 55.0% | +2.4 | 0.448 | 231 | |
| Breakable full fence | 54.7% | +2.1 | 0.475 | 254 | |
| Single wall | 53.7% | +1.1 | 0.686 | 281 | |
| Open | 52.6% | +0.1 | 0.986 | 245 | |
| Rectangle | 52.2% | -0.4 | 0.890 | 272 | |
| Breakable half fence | 52.0% | -0.6 | 0.846 | 248 | |
| Half fence | 51.2% | -1.4 | 0.625 | 258 | |
| Octagon | 45.8% | -6.8 | 0.023 | 251 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Kage's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 8.96 on 9 df, p 0.441
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 55.0%231 | +0.30.955 | +3.80.399 | +3.00.516 | -0.90.852 | +1.20.779 | -4.00.467 | +2.30.611 | +2.80.534 | +9.20.044 |
| Breakable full fence | -0.30.955 | 54.7%254 | +3.60.420 | +2.70.543 | -1.10.804 | +1.00.819 | -4.30.432 | +2.10.643 | +2.50.563 | +8.90.045 |
| Half fence | -3.80.399 | -3.60.420 | 51.2%258 | -0.90.848 | -4.70.300 | -2.60.550 | -7.90.152 | -1.50.738 | -1.10.810 | +5.30.228 |
| Breakable half fence | -3.00.516 | -2.70.543 | +0.90.848 | 52.0%248 | -3.80.401 | -1.70.692 | -7.00.204 | -0.60.887 | -0.20.965 | +6.20.166 |
| Low fence | +0.90.852 | +1.10.804 | +4.70.300 | +3.80.401 | 55.8%231 | +2.10.634 | -3.20.567 | +3.20.485 | +3.60.415 | +10.00.028 |
| Single wall | -1.20.779 | -1.00.819 | +2.60.550 | +1.70.692 | -2.10.634 | 53.7%281 | -5.30.327 | +1.10.804 | +1.50.718 | +7.90.068 |
| Fence and open | +4.00.467 | +4.30.432 | +7.90.152 | +7.00.204 | +3.20.567 | +5.30.327 | 59.0%122 | +6.40.249 | +6.80.210 | +13.20.017 |
| Open | -2.30.611 | -2.10.643 | +1.50.738 | +0.60.887 | -3.20.485 | -1.10.804 | -6.40.249 | 52.6%245 | +0.40.919 | +6.80.128 |
| Rectangle | -2.80.534 | -2.50.563 | +1.10.810 | +0.20.965 | -3.60.415 | -1.50.718 | -6.80.210 | -0.40.919 | 52.2%272 | +6.40.144 |
| Octagon | -9.20.044 | -8.90.045 | -5.30.228 | -6.20.166 | -10.00.028 | -7.90.068 | -13.20.017 | -6.80.128 | -6.40.144 | 45.8%251 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted2,038
Win rate52.2%
Widest swing6.3 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Kage's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 58.4% | +6.3 | 0.197 | 101 | |
| Full fence | 57.1% | +4.9 | 0.172 | 177 | |
| Breakable half fence | 54.0% | +1.9 | 0.577 | 198 | |
| Breakable full fence | 54.0% | +1.8 | 0.572 | 213 | |
| Low fence | 53.9% | +1.7 | 0.633 | 182 | |
| Open | 52.8% | +0.6 | 0.852 | 197 | |
| Single wall | 52.8% | +0.6 | 0.847 | 216 | |
| Rectangle | 52.5% | +0.4 | 0.907 | 217 | |
| Half fence | 48.0% | -4.2 | 0.186 | 221 | |
| Octagon | 46.0% | -6.2 | 0.058 | 213 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Kage's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 8.84 on 9 df, p 0.452
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 57.1%177 | +3.10.544 | +9.10.071 | +3.00.557 | +3.20.540 | +4.30.396 | -1.40.826 | +4.30.407 | +4.50.369 | +11.10.030 |
| Breakable full fence | -3.10.544 | 54.0%213 | +6.00.209 | -0.10.992 | +0.10.977 | +1.20.801 | -4.40.461 | +1.20.808 | +1.50.762 | +8.00.099 |
| Half fence | -9.10.071 | -6.00.209 | 48.0%221 | -6.10.214 | -5.90.240 | -4.80.314 | -10.50.082 | -4.80.324 | -4.60.339 | +1.90.683 |
| Breakable half fence | -3.00.557 | +0.10.992 | +6.10.214 | 54.0%198 | +0.20.970 | +1.30.797 | -4.40.471 | +1.20.804 | +1.50.759 | +8.00.104 |
| Low fence | -3.20.540 | -0.10.977 | +5.90.240 | -0.20.970 | 53.9%182 | +1.10.831 | -4.60.459 | +1.10.837 | +1.30.794 | +7.80.120 |
| Single wall | -4.30.396 | -1.20.801 | +4.80.314 | -1.30.797 | -1.10.831 | 52.8%216 | -5.60.348 | -0.00.998 | +0.20.960 | +6.80.161 |
| Fence and open | +1.40.826 | +4.40.461 | +10.50.082 | +4.40.471 | +4.60.459 | +5.60.348 | 58.4%101 | +5.60.356 | +5.90.327 | +12.40.040 |
| Open | -4.30.407 | -1.20.808 | +4.80.324 | -1.20.804 | -1.10.837 | +0.00.998 | -5.60.356 | 52.8%197 | +0.30.958 | +6.80.170 |
| Rectangle | -4.50.369 | -1.50.762 | +4.60.339 | -1.50.759 | -1.30.794 | -0.20.960 | -5.90.327 | -0.30.958 | 52.5%217 | +6.50.176 |
| Octagon | -11.10.030 | -8.00.099 | -1.90.683 | -8.00.104 | -7.80.120 | -6.80.161 | -12.40.040 | -6.80.170 | -6.50.176 | 46.0%213 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted481
Win rate54.5%
Widest swing15.8 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Kage's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Half fence | 70.3% | +15.8 | 0.045 | 37 · | |
| Low fence | 63.3% | +8.8 | 0.192 | 49 · | |
| Fence and open | 61.9% | +7.4 | 0.484 | 21 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 58.5% | +4.1 | 0.585 | 41 · | |
| Single wall | 56.9% | +2.5 | 0.669 | 65 · | |
| Open | 52.1% | -2.4 | 0.726 | 48 · | |
| Rectangle | 50.9% | -3.6 | 0.573 | 55 · | |
| Full fence | 48.1% | -6.3 | 0.322 | 54 · | |
| Octagon | 44.7% | -9.7 | 0.209 | 38 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 44.0% | -10.5 | 0.116 | 50 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Kage's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 11.07 on 9 df, p 0.271
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 48.1%54 | -10.40.315 | -22.10.036 | +4.20.672 | -15.10.123 | -8.80.340 | -13.80.284 | -3.90.692 | -2.80.773 | +3.40.747 |
| Breakable full fence | +10.40.315 | 58.5%41 | -11.70.281 | +14.50.168 | -4.70.647 | +1.60.870 | -3.40.798 | +6.50.542 | +7.60.458 | +13.80.220 |
| Half fence | +22.10.036 | +11.70.281 | 70.3%37 | +26.30.015 | +7.00.496 | +13.30.182 | +8.40.514 | +18.20.090 | +19.40.064 | +25.50.025 |
| Breakable half fence | -4.20.672 | -14.50.168 | -26.30.015 | 44.0%50 | -19.30.055 | -12.90.169 | -17.90.168 | -8.10.423 | -6.90.479 | -0.70.945 |
| Low fence | +15.10.123 | +4.70.647 | -7.00.496 | +19.30.055 | 63.3%49 | +6.30.494 | +1.40.914 | +11.20.265 | +12.40.204 | +18.50.085 |
| Single wall | +8.80.340 | -1.60.870 | -13.30.182 | +12.90.169 | -6.30.494 | 56.9%65 | -5.00.687 | +4.80.609 | +6.00.510 | +12.20.232 |
| Fence and open | +13.80.284 | +3.40.798 | -8.40.514 | +17.90.168 | -1.40.914 | +5.00.687 | 61.9%21 | +9.80.450 | +11.00.390 | +17.20.207 |
| Open | +3.90.692 | -6.50.542 | -18.20.090 | +8.10.423 | -11.20.265 | -4.80.609 | -9.80.450 | 52.1%48 | +1.20.905 | +7.30.499 |
| Rectangle | +2.80.773 | -7.60.458 | -19.40.064 | +6.90.479 | -12.40.204 | -6.00.510 | -11.00.390 | -1.20.905 | 50.9%55 | +6.20.558 |
| Octagon | -3.40.747 | -13.80.220 | -25.50.025 | +0.70.945 | -18.50.085 | -12.20.232 | -17.20.207 | -7.30.499 | -6.20.558 | 44.7%38 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.