Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Kage vs Sarah
Matches counted2,525
Win rate53.0%
Widest swing-3.9 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Kage's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 56.2% | +3.2 | 0.463 | 121 | |
| Open | 56.2% | +3.2 | 0.306 | 226 | |
| Low fence | 56.0% | +3.1 | 0.278 | 273 | |
| Rectangle | 54.6% | +1.7 | 0.564 | 258 | |
| Single wall | 54.2% | +1.3 | 0.666 | 247 | |
| Breakable full fence | 52.3% | -0.6 | 0.844 | 235 | |
| Octagon | 52.0% | -0.9 | 0.738 | 275 | |
| Breakable half fence | 49.8% | -3.2 | 0.308 | 235 | |
| Half fence | 49.6% | -3.3 | 0.255 | 260 | |
| Full fence | 49.1% | -3.9 | 0.175 | 273 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Kage's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 6.84 on 9 df, p 0.654
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 49.1%273 | -3.30.464 | -0.50.902 | -0.70.874 | -7.00.103 | -5.20.239 | -7.10.193 | -7.10.113 | -5.60.199 | -2.90.495 |
| Breakable full fence | +3.30.464 | 52.3%235 | +2.70.545 | +2.50.580 | -3.70.403 | -1.90.674 | -3.90.489 | -3.90.406 | -2.30.607 | +0.30.939 |
| Half fence | +0.50.902 | -2.70.545 | 49.6%260 | -0.20.970 | -6.40.137 | -4.60.296 | -6.60.231 | -6.60.147 | -5.00.251 | -2.40.581 |
| Breakable half fence | +0.70.874 | -2.50.580 | +0.20.970 | 49.8%235 | -6.20.159 | -4.50.327 | -6.40.251 | -6.40.168 | -4.90.280 | -2.20.618 |
| Low fence | +7.00.103 | +3.70.403 | +6.40.137 | +6.20.159 | 56.0%273 | +1.80.681 | -0.20.977 | -0.10.973 | +1.40.747 | +4.00.342 |
| Single wall | +5.20.239 | +1.90.674 | +4.60.296 | +4.50.327 | -1.80.681 | 54.2%247 | -1.90.724 | -1.90.671 | -0.40.928 | +2.20.607 |
| Fence and open | +7.10.193 | +3.90.489 | +6.60.231 | +6.40.251 | +0.20.977 | +1.90.724 | 56.2%121 | +0.00.999 | +1.60.778 | +4.20.440 |
| Open | +7.10.113 | +3.90.406 | +6.60.147 | +6.40.168 | +0.10.973 | +1.90.671 | -0.00.999 | 56.2%226 | +1.50.733 | +4.20.349 |
| Rectangle | +5.60.199 | +2.30.607 | +5.00.251 | +4.90.280 | -1.40.747 | +0.40.928 | -1.60.778 | -1.50.733 | 54.6%258 | +2.60.540 |
| Octagon | +2.90.495 | -0.30.939 | +2.40.581 | +2.20.618 | -4.00.342 | -2.20.607 | -4.20.440 | -4.20.349 | -2.60.540 | 52.0%275 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted2,156
Win rate53.1%
Widest swing5.5 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Kage's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 58.6% | +5.5 | 0.116 | 186 | |
| Fence and open | 57.0% | +3.9 | 0.424 | 100 | |
| Rectangle | 55.9% | +2.8 | 0.386 | 222 | |
| Low fence | 55.0% | +1.9 | 0.547 | 231 | |
| Single wall | 54.5% | +1.4 | 0.677 | 213 | |
| Octagon | 52.9% | -0.2 | 0.950 | 240 | |
| Half fence | 50.2% | -2.9 | 0.373 | 215 | |
| Breakable half fence | 49.5% | -3.6 | 0.275 | 208 | |
| Breakable full fence | 49.5% | -3.6 | 0.287 | 196 | |
| Full fence | 48.7% | -4.4 | 0.155 | 232 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Kage's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 8.61 on 9 df, p 0.474
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 48.7%232 | -0.80.872 | -1.50.747 | -0.80.865 | -6.30.177 | -5.80.225 | -8.30.165 | -9.90.044 | -7.20.127 | -4.20.360 |
| Breakable full fence | +0.80.872 | 49.5%196 | -0.70.880 | -0.00.995 | -5.50.258 | -5.00.315 | -7.50.221 | -9.10.074 | -6.40.193 | -3.40.476 |
| Half fence | +1.50.747 | +0.70.880 | 50.2%215 | +0.70.883 | -4.80.316 | -4.20.381 | -6.80.263 | -8.40.093 | -5.60.239 | -2.70.567 |
| Breakable half fence | +0.80.865 | +0.00.995 | -0.70.883 | 49.5%208 | -5.50.253 | -4.90.310 | -7.50.219 | -9.10.071 | -6.30.188 | -3.40.473 |
| Low fence | +6.30.177 | +5.50.258 | +4.80.316 | +5.50.253 | 55.0%231 | +0.50.913 | -2.00.734 | -3.60.458 | -0.90.851 | +2.10.654 |
| Single wall | +5.80.225 | +5.00.315 | +4.20.381 | +4.90.310 | -0.50.913 | 54.5%213 | -2.50.673 | -4.10.405 | -1.40.770 | +1.50.742 |
| Fence and open | +8.30.165 | +7.50.221 | +6.80.263 | +7.50.219 | +2.00.734 | +2.50.673 | 57.0%100 | -1.60.793 | +1.10.848 | +4.10.491 |
| Open | +9.90.044 | +9.10.074 | +8.40.093 | +9.10.071 | +3.60.458 | +4.10.405 | +1.60.793 | 58.6%186 | +2.70.577 | +5.70.242 |
| Rectangle | +7.20.127 | +6.40.193 | +5.60.239 | +6.30.188 | +0.90.851 | +1.40.770 | -1.10.848 | -2.70.577 | 55.9%222 | +2.90.526 |
| Octagon | +4.20.360 | +3.40.476 | +2.70.567 | +3.40.473 | -2.10.654 | -1.50.742 | -4.10.491 | -5.70.242 | -2.90.526 | 52.9%240 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted369
Win rate52.0%
Widest swing14.6 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Kage's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakable full fence | 66.7% | +14.6 | 0.053 | 39 · | |
| Low fence | 61.9% | +9.9 | 0.174 | 42 · | |
| Single wall | 52.9% | +0.9 | 0.911 | 34 · | |
| Fence and open | 52.4% | +0.3 | 0.974 | 21 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 51.9% | -0.2 | 0.984 | 27 · | |
| Full fence | 51.2% | -0.8 | 0.912 | 41 · | |
| Rectangle | 47.2% | -4.8 | 0.543 | 36 · | |
| Half fence | 46.7% | -5.4 | 0.442 | 45 · | |
| Octagon | 45.7% | -6.3 | 0.432 | 35 · | |
| Open | 45.0% | -7.0 | 0.346 | 40 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Kage's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 7.21 on 9 df, p 0.615
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 51.2%41 | -15.40.161 | +4.50.673 | -0.60.959 | -10.70.326 | -1.70.882 | -1.20.931 | +6.20.575 | +4.00.726 | +5.50.632 |
| Breakable full fence | +15.40.161 | 66.7%39 | +20.00.066 | +14.80.226 | +4.80.655 | +13.70.232 | +14.30.278 | +21.70.053 | +19.40.089 | +21.00.069 |
| Half fence | -4.50.673 | -20.00.066 | 46.7%45 | -5.20.670 | -15.20.154 | -6.30.581 | -5.70.665 | +1.70.878 | -0.60.960 | +1.00.932 |
| Breakable half fence | +0.60.959 | -14.80.226 | +5.20.670 | 51.9%27 | -10.10.409 | -1.10.933 | -0.50.971 | +6.80.582 | +4.60.716 | +6.10.632 |
| Low fence | +10.70.326 | -4.80.655 | +15.20.154 | +10.10.409 | 61.9%42 | +9.00.431 | +9.50.469 | +16.90.125 | +14.70.194 | +16.20.155 |
| Single wall | +1.70.882 | -13.70.232 | +6.30.581 | +1.10.933 | -9.00.431 | 52.9%34 | +0.60.968 | +7.90.496 | +5.70.632 | +7.20.548 |
| Fence and open | +1.20.931 | -14.30.278 | +5.70.665 | +0.50.971 | -9.50.469 | -0.60.968 | 52.4%21 | +7.40.583 | +5.20.707 | +6.70.629 |
| Open | -6.20.575 | -21.70.053 | -1.70.878 | -6.80.582 | -16.90.125 | -7.90.496 | -7.40.583 | 45.0%40 | -2.20.846 | -0.70.951 |
| Rectangle | -4.00.726 | -19.40.089 | +0.60.960 | -4.60.716 | -14.70.194 | -5.70.632 | -5.20.707 | +2.20.846 | 47.2%36 | +1.50.899 |
| Octagon | -5.50.632 | -21.00.069 | -1.00.932 | -6.10.632 | -16.20.155 | -7.20.548 | -6.70.629 | +0.70.951 | -1.50.899 | 45.7%35 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.