Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Kage vs Pai
Matches counted2,385
Win rate49.9%
Widest swing8.0 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Kage's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 57.9% | +8.0 | 0.072 | 121 | |
| Single wall | 55.1% | +5.2 | 0.117 | 205 | |
| Low fence | 50.9% | +1.0 | 0.754 | 224 | |
| Half fence | 50.9% | +0.9 | 0.758 | 236 | |
| Rectangle | 50.0% | +0.1 | 0.973 | 240 | |
| Breakable half fence | 49.4% | -0.5 | 0.865 | 241 | |
| Open | 48.4% | -1.5 | 0.597 | 287 | |
| Octagon | 48.4% | -1.5 | 0.640 | 215 | |
| Breakable full fence | 46.9% | -3.0 | 0.292 | 275 | |
| Full fence | 44.9% | -5.0 | 0.097 | 243 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Kage's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 9.37 on 9 df, p 0.404
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 44.9%243 | -2.00.640 | -6.00.189 | -4.50.319 | -6.00.192 | -10.30.030 | -13.00.019 | -3.60.411 | -5.10.258 | -3.50.452 |
| Breakable full fence | +2.00.640 | 46.9%275 | -3.90.375 | -2.50.576 | -4.00.376 | -8.20.075 | -10.90.045 | -1.50.718 | -3.10.484 | -1.50.748 |
| Half fence | +6.00.189 | +3.90.375 | 50.9%236 | +1.50.748 | -0.00.992 | -4.30.370 | -7.00.209 | +2.40.582 | +0.80.853 | +2.50.599 |
| Breakable half fence | +4.50.319 | +2.50.576 | -1.50.748 | 49.4%241 | -1.50.744 | -5.70.226 | -8.50.128 | +0.90.829 | -0.60.891 | +1.00.830 |
| Low fence | +6.00.192 | +4.00.376 | +0.00.992 | +1.50.744 | 50.9%224 | -4.20.381 | -7.00.216 | +2.50.581 | +0.90.848 | +2.50.597 |
| Single wall | +10.30.030 | +8.20.075 | +4.30.370 | +5.70.226 | +4.20.381 | 55.1%205 | -2.70.631 | +6.70.143 | +5.10.281 | +6.80.166 |
| Fence and open | +13.00.019 | +10.90.045 | +7.00.209 | +8.50.128 | +7.00.216 | +2.70.631 | 57.9%121 | +9.40.082 | +7.80.158 | +9.50.095 |
| Open | +3.60.411 | +1.50.718 | -2.40.582 | -0.90.829 | -2.50.581 | -6.70.143 | -9.40.082 | 48.4%287 | -1.60.720 | +0.10.989 |
| Rectangle | +5.10.258 | +3.10.484 | -0.80.853 | +0.60.891 | -0.90.848 | -5.10.281 | -7.80.158 | +1.60.720 | 50.0%240 | +1.60.729 |
| Octagon | +3.50.452 | +1.50.748 | -2.50.599 | -1.00.830 | -2.50.597 | -6.80.166 | -9.50.095 | -0.10.989 | -1.60.729 | 48.4%215 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted1,969
Win rate50.0%
Widest swing9.7 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Kage's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single wall | 59.6% | +9.7 | 0.009 | 166 | |
| Fence and open | 57.6% | +7.6 | 0.121 | 99 | |
| Half fence | 51.6% | +1.6 | 0.642 | 190 | |
| Rectangle | 50.5% | +0.5 | 0.874 | 196 | |
| Low fence | 50.0% | +0.0 | 0.994 | 182 | |
| Octagon | 48.1% | -1.8 | 0.596 | 187 | |
| Breakable half fence | 48.0% | -1.9 | 0.557 | 202 | |
| Open | 47.3% | -2.7 | 0.397 | 222 | |
| Breakable full fence | 46.2% | -3.8 | 0.230 | 223 | |
| Full fence | 44.0% | -6.0 | 0.069 | 209 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Kage's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 14.06 on 9 df, p 0.120
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 44.0%209 | -2.20.651 | -7.60.131 | -4.00.416 | -6.00.237 | -15.60.003 | -13.60.026 | -3.30.495 | -6.50.191 | -4.10.413 |
| Breakable full fence | +2.20.651 | 46.2%223 | -5.40.275 | -1.80.706 | -3.80.445 | -13.40.009 | -11.40.059 | -1.10.815 | -4.30.377 | -1.90.695 |
| Half fence | +7.60.131 | +5.40.275 | 51.6%190 | +3.60.481 | +1.60.761 | -8.10.127 | -6.00.332 | +4.30.386 | +1.10.834 | +3.50.503 |
| Breakable half fence | +4.00.416 | +1.80.706 | -3.60.481 | 48.0%202 | -2.00.698 | -11.60.026 | -9.60.119 | +0.70.882 | -2.50.619 | -0.10.983 |
| Low fence | +6.00.237 | +3.80.445 | -1.60.761 | +2.00.698 | 50.0%182 | -9.60.071 | -7.60.224 | +2.70.589 | -0.50.921 | +1.90.719 |
| Single wall | +15.60.003 | +13.40.009 | +8.10.127 | +11.60.026 | +9.60.071 | 59.6%166 | +2.10.741 | +12.30.016 | +9.10.082 | +11.50.030 |
| Fence and open | +13.60.026 | +11.40.059 | +6.00.332 | +9.60.119 | +7.60.224 | -2.10.741 | 57.6%99 | +10.30.089 | +7.10.251 | +9.40.128 |
| Open | +3.30.495 | +1.10.815 | -4.30.386 | -0.70.882 | -2.70.589 | -12.30.016 | -10.30.089 | 47.3%222 | -3.20.512 | -0.80.867 |
| Rectangle | +6.50.191 | +4.30.377 | -1.10.834 | +2.50.619 | +0.50.921 | -9.10.082 | -7.10.251 | +3.20.512 | 50.5%196 | +2.40.641 |
| Octagon | +4.10.413 | +1.90.695 | -3.50.503 | +0.10.983 | -1.90.719 | -11.50.030 | -9.40.128 | +0.80.867 | -2.40.641 | 48.1%187 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted416
Win rate49.5%
Widest swing-13.6 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Kage's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 59.1% | +9.6 | 0.356 | 22 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 56.4% | +6.9 | 0.366 | 39 · | |
| Low fence | 54.8% | +5.2 | 0.474 | 42 · | |
| Open | 52.3% | +2.8 | 0.624 | 65 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 50.0% | +0.5 | 0.941 | 52 · | |
| Full fence | 50.0% | +0.5 | 0.953 | 34 · | |
| Octagon | 50.0% | +0.5 | 0.958 | 28 · | |
| Half fence | 47.8% | -1.7 | 0.808 | 46 · | |
| Rectangle | 47.7% | -1.8 | 0.801 | 44 · | |
| Single wall | 35.9% | -13.6 | 0.074 | 39 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Kage's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 5.17 on 9 df, p 0.820
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 50.0%34 | +0.01.000 | +2.20.848 | -6.40.584 | -4.80.679 | +14.10.224 | -9.10.505 | -2.30.827 | +2.30.842 | +0.01.000 |
| Breakable full fence | -0.01.000 | 50.0%52 | +2.20.830 | -6.40.544 | -4.80.646 | +14.10.180 | -9.10.474 | -2.30.804 | +2.30.824 | +0.01.000 |
| Half fence | -2.20.848 | -2.20.830 | 47.8%46 | -8.60.430 | -6.90.516 | +11.90.267 | -11.30.385 | -4.50.642 | +0.10.993 | -2.20.856 |
| Breakable half fence | +6.40.584 | +6.40.544 | +8.60.430 | 56.4%39 | +1.60.881 | +20.50.069 | -2.70.839 | +4.10.685 | +8.70.429 | +6.40.604 |
| Low fence | +4.80.679 | +4.80.646 | +6.90.516 | -1.60.881 | 54.8%42 | +18.90.089 | -4.30.740 | +2.50.804 | +7.00.514 | +4.80.696 |
| Single wall | -14.10.224 | -14.10.180 | -11.90.267 | -20.50.069 | -18.90.089 | 35.9%39 | -23.20.080 | -16.40.104 | -11.80.276 | -14.10.248 |
| Fence and open | +9.10.505 | +9.10.474 | +11.30.385 | +2.70.839 | +4.30.740 | +23.20.080 | 59.1%22 | +6.80.581 | +11.40.384 | +9.10.522 |
| Open | +2.30.827 | +2.30.804 | +4.50.642 | -4.10.685 | -2.50.804 | +16.40.104 | -6.80.581 | 52.3%65 | +4.60.639 | +2.30.838 |
| Rectangle | -2.30.842 | -2.30.824 | -0.10.993 | -8.70.429 | -7.00.514 | +11.80.276 | -11.40.384 | -4.60.639 | 47.7%44 | -2.30.851 |
| Octagon | -0.01.000 | -0.01.000 | +2.20.856 | -6.40.604 | -4.80.696 | +14.10.248 | -9.10.522 | -2.30.838 | +2.30.851 | 50.0%28 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.