Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Kage vs Lion
Matches counted3,007
Win rate49.8%
Widest swing4.9 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Kage's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakable full fence | 54.7% | +4.9 | 0.074 | 298 | |
| Octagon | 52.3% | +2.5 | 0.398 | 266 | |
| Rectangle | 52.2% | +2.4 | 0.385 | 301 | |
| Fence and open | 51.5% | +1.7 | 0.686 | 134 | |
| Breakable half fence | 51.2% | +1.4 | 0.581 | 326 | |
| Half fence | 50.7% | +0.9 | 0.744 | 284 | |
| Low fence | 47.7% | -2.1 | 0.406 | 344 | |
| Open | 47.5% | -2.2 | 0.428 | 286 | |
| Full fence | 45.5% | -4.3 | 0.109 | 308 | |
| Single wall | 45.1% | -4.7 | 0.085 | 308 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Kage's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 10.88 on 9 df, p 0.284
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 45.5%308 | -9.20.023 | -5.20.201 | -5.80.146 | -2.20.571 | +0.30.935 | -6.00.243 | -2.10.608 | -6.70.098 | -6.80.104 |
| Breakable full fence | +9.20.023 | 54.7%298 | +4.00.335 | +3.50.386 | +7.00.076 | +9.60.019 | +3.20.537 | +7.20.084 | +2.50.533 | +2.40.562 |
| Half fence | +5.20.201 | -4.00.335 | 50.7%284 | -0.50.897 | +3.00.450 | +5.60.175 | -0.80.880 | +3.10.452 | -1.50.725 | -1.60.716 |
| Breakable half fence | +5.80.146 | -3.50.386 | +0.50.897 | 51.2%326 | +3.60.358 | +6.10.125 | -0.30.959 | +3.70.364 | -0.90.815 | -1.00.803 |
| Low fence | +2.20.571 | -7.00.076 | -3.00.450 | -3.60.358 | 47.7%344 | +2.50.515 | -3.80.453 | +0.10.976 | -4.50.256 | -4.60.262 |
| Single wall | -0.30.935 | -9.60.019 | -5.60.175 | -6.10.125 | -2.50.515 | 45.1%308 | -6.40.218 | -2.40.554 | -7.00.083 | -7.10.088 |
| Fence and open | +6.00.243 | -3.20.537 | +0.80.880 | +0.30.959 | +3.80.453 | +6.40.218 | 51.5%134 | +3.90.451 | -0.70.898 | -0.80.885 |
| Open | +2.10.608 | -7.20.084 | -3.10.452 | -3.70.364 | -0.10.976 | +2.40.554 | -3.90.451 | 47.5%286 | -4.60.264 | -4.70.269 |
| Rectangle | +6.70.098 | -2.50.533 | +1.50.725 | +0.90.815 | +4.50.256 | +7.00.083 | +0.70.898 | +4.60.264 | 52.2%301 | -0.10.982 |
| Octagon | +6.80.104 | -2.40.562 | +1.60.716 | +1.00.803 | +4.60.262 | +7.10.088 | +0.80.885 | +4.70.269 | +0.10.982 | 52.3%266 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted2,389
Win rate50.6%
Widest swing-6.2 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Kage's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakable full fence | 56.0% | +5.4 | 0.076 | 241 | |
| Fence and open | 53.3% | +2.7 | 0.573 | 107 | |
| Breakable half fence | 52.4% | +1.8 | 0.526 | 267 | |
| Half fence | 52.3% | +1.7 | 0.599 | 216 | |
| Octagon | 52.0% | +1.3 | 0.668 | 231 | |
| Rectangle | 51.7% | +1.1 | 0.720 | 232 | |
| Low fence | 48.7% | -1.9 | 0.507 | 275 | |
| Open | 48.3% | -2.3 | 0.456 | 234 | |
| Full fence | 46.2% | -4.4 | 0.154 | 238 | |
| Single wall | 44.4% | -6.2 | 0.043 | 243 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Kage's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 10.37 on 9 df, p 0.321
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 46.2%238 | -9.80.032 | -6.10.194 | -6.20.163 | -2.50.570 | +1.80.696 | -7.00.225 | -2.10.652 | -5.50.233 | -5.70.215 |
| Breakable full fence | +9.80.032 | 56.0%241 | +3.70.428 | +3.60.418 | +7.30.098 | +11.60.011 | +2.80.635 | +7.70.092 | +4.30.349 | +4.10.375 |
| Half fence | +6.10.194 | -3.70.428 | 52.3%216 | -0.10.979 | +3.60.430 | +7.90.092 | -1.00.871 | +4.00.394 | +0.60.900 | +0.40.938 |
| Breakable half fence | +6.20.163 | -3.60.418 | +0.10.979 | 52.4%267 | +3.70.388 | +8.00.071 | -0.80.884 | +4.10.355 | +0.70.874 | +0.50.914 |
| Low fence | +2.50.570 | -7.30.098 | -3.60.430 | -3.70.388 | 48.7%275 | +4.30.330 | -4.50.425 | +0.40.922 | -3.00.501 | -3.20.470 |
| Single wall | -1.80.696 | -11.60.011 | -7.90.092 | -8.00.071 | -4.30.330 | 44.4%243 | -8.80.128 | -3.90.400 | -7.30.112 | -7.50.102 |
| Fence and open | +7.00.225 | -2.80.635 | +1.00.871 | +0.80.884 | +4.50.425 | +8.80.128 | 53.3%107 | +5.00.393 | +1.60.791 | +1.30.821 |
| Open | +2.10.652 | -7.70.092 | -4.00.394 | -4.10.355 | -0.40.922 | +3.90.400 | -5.00.393 | 48.3%234 | -3.40.459 | -3.70.430 |
| Rectangle | +5.50.233 | -4.30.349 | -0.60.900 | -0.70.874 | +3.00.501 | +7.30.112 | -1.60.791 | +3.40.459 | 51.7%232 | -0.20.962 |
| Octagon | +5.70.215 | -4.10.375 | -0.40.938 | -0.50.914 | +3.20.470 | +7.50.102 | -1.30.821 | +3.70.430 | +0.20.962 | 52.0%231 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted618
Win rate46.6%
Widest swing7.7 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Kage's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Octagon | 54.3% | +7.7 | 0.348 | 35 · | |
| Rectangle | 53.6% | +7.0 | 0.215 | 69 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 49.1% | +2.5 | 0.689 | 57 · | |
| Single wall | 47.7% | +1.1 | 0.852 | 65 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 45.8% | -0.8 | 0.892 | 59 · | |
| Half fence | 45.6% | -1.0 | 0.859 | 68 · | |
| Fence and open | 44.4% | -2.2 | 0.818 | 27 · | |
| Open | 44.2% | -2.4 | 0.720 | 52 · | |
| Low fence | 43.5% | -3.1 | 0.581 | 69 · | |
| Full fence | 42.9% | -3.7 | 0.505 | 70 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Kage's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 3.22 on 9 df, p 0.955
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 42.9%70 | -6.30.481 | -2.70.747 | -2.90.741 | -0.60.941 | -4.80.573 | -1.60.888 | -1.40.880 | -10.80.204 | -11.40.268 |
| Breakable full fence | +6.30.481 | 49.1%57 | +3.50.693 | +3.40.717 | +5.60.527 | +1.40.875 | +4.70.688 | +4.90.609 | -4.50.615 | -5.20.631 |
| Half fence | +2.70.747 | -3.50.693 | 45.6%68 | -0.20.984 | +2.10.804 | -2.10.808 | +1.10.920 | +1.40.882 | -8.00.347 | -8.70.403 |
| Breakable half fence | +2.90.741 | -3.40.717 | +0.20.984 | 45.8%59 | +2.30.795 | -1.90.830 | +1.30.909 | +1.50.871 | -7.90.375 | -8.50.424 |
| Low fence | +0.60.941 | -5.60.527 | -2.10.804 | -2.30.795 | 43.5%69 | -4.20.624 | -1.00.932 | -0.80.934 | -10.10.233 | -10.80.297 |
| Single wall | +4.80.573 | -1.40.875 | +2.10.808 | +1.90.830 | +4.20.624 | 47.7%65 | +3.20.776 | +3.50.709 | -5.90.493 | -6.60.529 |
| Fence and open | +1.60.888 | -4.70.688 | -1.10.920 | -1.30.909 | +1.00.932 | -3.20.776 | 44.4%27 | +0.20.986 | -9.20.419 | -9.80.442 |
| Open | +1.40.880 | -4.90.609 | -1.40.882 | -1.50.871 | +0.80.934 | -3.50.709 | -0.20.986 | 44.2%52 | -9.40.306 | -10.10.357 |
| Rectangle | +10.80.204 | +4.50.615 | +8.00.347 | +7.90.375 | +10.10.233 | +5.90.493 | +9.20.419 | +9.40.306 | 53.6%69 | -0.70.949 |
| Octagon | +11.40.268 | +5.20.631 | +8.70.403 | +8.50.424 | +10.80.297 | +6.60.529 | +9.80.442 | +10.10.357 | +0.70.949 | 54.3%35 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.