Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Kage vs Lau
Matches counted3,436
Win rate50.4%
Widest swing5.2 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Kage's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 55.6% | +5.2 | 0.141 | 189 | |
| Single wall | 52.1% | +1.7 | 0.474 | 388 | |
| Full fence | 51.5% | +1.1 | 0.666 | 344 | |
| Rectangle | 51.1% | +0.8 | 0.775 | 313 | |
| Low fence | 50.5% | +0.1 | 0.968 | 331 | |
| Open | 49.5% | -0.8 | 0.759 | 333 | |
| Octagon | 49.5% | -0.9 | 0.717 | 362 | |
| Breakable half fence | 48.7% | -1.7 | 0.490 | 376 | |
| Half fence | 48.3% | -2.0 | 0.466 | 302 | |
| Breakable full fence | 45.7% | -4.7 | 0.072 | 337 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Kage's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 6.63 on 9 df, p 0.675
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 51.5%344 | +5.80.133 | +3.10.430 | +2.80.456 | +1.00.795 | -0.60.869 | -4.10.364 | +1.90.620 | +0.30.932 | +2.00.594 |
| Breakable full fence | -5.80.133 | 45.7%337 | -2.60.503 | -3.00.427 | -4.80.219 | -6.40.087 | -9.90.030 | -3.90.318 | -5.40.167 | -3.80.321 |
| Half fence | -3.10.430 | +2.60.503 | 48.3%302 | -0.30.933 | -2.10.596 | -3.70.333 | -7.20.120 | -1.20.762 | -2.80.492 | -1.10.777 |
| Breakable half fence | -2.80.456 | +3.00.427 | +0.30.933 | 48.7%376 | -1.80.636 | -3.40.349 | -6.90.122 | -0.90.815 | -2.50.522 | -0.80.833 |
| Low fence | -1.00.795 | +4.80.219 | +2.10.596 | +1.80.636 | 50.5%331 | -1.60.667 | -5.10.263 | +0.90.816 | -0.70.866 | +1.00.791 |
| Single wall | +0.60.869 | +6.40.087 | +3.70.333 | +3.40.349 | +1.60.667 | 52.1%388 | -3.50.430 | +2.50.501 | +0.90.804 | +2.60.474 |
| Fence and open | +4.10.364 | +9.90.030 | +7.20.120 | +6.90.122 | +5.10.263 | +3.50.430 | 55.6%189 | +6.00.187 | +4.40.335 | +6.10.173 |
| Open | -1.90.620 | +3.90.318 | +1.20.762 | +0.90.815 | -0.90.816 | -2.50.501 | -6.00.187 | 49.5%333 | -1.60.690 | +0.10.979 |
| Rectangle | -0.30.932 | +5.40.167 | +2.80.492 | +2.50.522 | +0.70.866 | -0.90.804 | -4.40.335 | +1.60.690 | 51.1%313 | +1.70.665 |
| Octagon | -2.00.594 | +3.80.321 | +1.10.777 | +0.80.833 | -1.00.791 | -2.60.474 | -6.10.173 | -0.10.979 | -1.70.665 | 49.5%362 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted2,623
Win rate51.0%
Widest swing-4.3 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Kage's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 55.3% | +4.3 | 0.276 | 152 | |
| Full fence | 53.9% | +2.9 | 0.329 | 260 | |
| Single wall | 52.8% | +1.8 | 0.505 | 309 | |
| Breakable half fence | 51.2% | +0.2 | 0.929 | 287 | |
| Low fence | 50.6% | -0.4 | 0.904 | 247 | |
| Octagon | 50.0% | -1.0 | 0.735 | 272 | |
| Open | 49.4% | -1.6 | 0.599 | 259 | |
| Rectangle | 49.4% | -1.6 | 0.605 | 235 | |
| Half fence | 48.9% | -2.1 | 0.513 | 217 | |
| Breakable full fence | 46.6% | -4.3 | 0.134 | 266 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Kage's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 5.31 on 9 df, p 0.806
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 53.9%260 | +7.20.097 | +5.00.277 | +2.60.539 | +3.20.466 | +1.10.794 | -1.40.781 | +4.40.313 | +4.50.319 | +3.90.375 |
| Breakable full fence | -7.20.097 | 46.6%266 | -2.20.625 | -4.60.279 | -4.00.366 | -6.10.142 | -8.60.089 | -2.80.520 | -2.70.539 | -3.40.432 |
| Half fence | -5.00.277 | +2.20.625 | 48.9%217 | -2.40.598 | -1.80.705 | -3.90.378 | -6.40.225 | -0.60.901 | -0.50.913 | -1.10.800 |
| Breakable half fence | -2.60.539 | +4.60.279 | +2.40.598 | 51.2%287 | +0.60.888 | -1.50.708 | -4.00.419 | +1.80.675 | +1.90.673 | +1.20.773 |
| Low fence | -3.20.466 | +4.00.366 | +1.80.705 | -0.60.888 | 50.6%247 | -2.10.615 | -4.70.366 | +1.20.790 | +1.20.785 | +0.60.890 |
| Single wall | -1.10.794 | +6.10.142 | +3.90.378 | +1.50.708 | +2.10.615 | 52.8%309 | -2.50.611 | +3.30.429 | +3.40.433 | +2.80.508 |
| Fence and open | +1.40.781 | +8.60.089 | +6.40.225 | +4.00.419 | +4.70.366 | +2.50.611 | 55.3%152 | +5.80.253 | +5.90.257 | +5.30.298 |
| Open | -4.40.313 | +2.80.520 | +0.60.901 | -1.80.675 | -1.20.790 | -3.30.429 | -5.80.253 | 49.4%259 | +0.10.990 | -0.60.894 |
| Rectangle | -4.50.319 | +2.70.539 | +0.50.913 | -1.90.673 | -1.20.785 | -3.40.433 | -5.90.257 | -0.10.990 | 49.4%235 | -0.60.886 |
| Octagon | -3.90.375 | +3.40.432 | +1.10.800 | -1.20.773 | -0.60.890 | -2.80.508 | -5.30.298 | +0.60.894 | +0.60.886 | 50.0%272 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted813
Win rate48.3%
Widest swing8.4 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Kage's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 56.8% | +8.4 | 0.294 | 37 · | |
| Rectangle | 56.4% | +8.1 | 0.134 | 78 · | |
| Low fence | 50.0% | +1.7 | 0.748 | 84 | |
| Open | 50.0% | +1.7 | 0.764 | 74 · | |
| Single wall | 49.4% | +1.0 | 0.847 | 79 · | |
| Octagon | 47.8% | -0.6 | 0.910 | 90 | |
| Half fence | 47.1% | -1.3 | 0.803 | 85 | |
| Full fence | 44.0% | -4.3 | 0.406 | 84 | |
| Breakable full fence | 42.2% | -6.1 | 0.283 | 71 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 40.5% | -7.9 | 0.114 | 89 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Kage's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 7.18 on 9 df, p 0.618
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 44.0%84 | +1.80.822 | -3.00.694 | +3.60.632 | -6.00.440 | -5.30.496 | -12.70.197 | -6.00.454 | -12.40.116 | -3.70.622 |
| Breakable full fence | -1.80.822 | 42.2%71 | -4.80.548 | +1.80.818 | -7.80.335 | -7.10.383 | -14.50.152 | -7.80.350 | -14.20.084 | -5.50.484 |
| Half fence | +3.00.694 | +4.80.548 | 47.1%85 | +6.60.380 | -2.90.702 | -2.30.768 | -9.70.325 | -2.90.711 | -9.30.233 | -0.70.924 |
| Breakable half fence | -3.60.632 | -1.80.818 | -6.60.380 | 40.5%89 | -9.60.207 | -8.90.246 | -16.30.094 | -9.60.222 | -16.00.039 | -7.30.324 |
| Low fence | +6.00.440 | +7.80.335 | +2.90.702 | +9.60.207 | 50.0%84 | +0.60.936 | -6.80.493 | +0.01.000 | -6.40.414 | +2.20.769 |
| Single wall | +5.30.496 | +7.10.383 | +2.30.768 | +8.90.246 | -0.60.936 | 49.4%79 | -7.40.458 | -0.60.938 | -7.00.377 | +1.60.837 |
| Fence and open | +12.70.197 | +14.50.152 | +9.70.325 | +16.30.094 | +6.80.493 | +7.40.458 | 56.8%37 | +6.80.502 | +0.30.972 | +9.00.358 |
| Open | +6.00.454 | +7.80.350 | +2.90.711 | +9.60.222 | -0.01.000 | +0.60.938 | -6.80.502 | 50.0%74 | -6.40.429 | +2.20.777 |
| Rectangle | +12.40.116 | +14.20.084 | +9.30.233 | +16.00.039 | +6.40.414 | +7.00.377 | -0.30.972 | +6.40.429 | 56.4%78 | +8.60.264 |
| Octagon | +3.70.622 | +5.50.484 | +0.70.924 | +7.30.324 | -2.20.769 | -1.60.837 | -9.00.358 | -2.20.777 | -8.60.264 | 47.8%90 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.