Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Jeffry vs Wolf
Matches counted2,671
Win rate50.6%
Widest swing4.8 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jeffry's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 55.4% | +4.8 | 0.281 | 121 | |
| Rectangle | 53.9% | +3.3 | 0.265 | 258 | |
| Breakable half fence | 52.2% | +1.6 | 0.572 | 272 | |
| Octagon | 51.8% | +1.2 | 0.691 | 255 | |
| Open | 51.5% | +0.9 | 0.753 | 268 | |
| Half fence | 51.1% | +0.5 | 0.862 | 280 | |
| Single wall | 50.8% | +0.2 | 0.952 | 264 | |
| Full fence | 50.2% | -0.4 | 0.886 | 283 | |
| Low fence | 49.1% | -1.5 | 0.602 | 271 | |
| Breakable full fence | 47.2% | -3.4 | 0.244 | 269 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jeffry's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 4.05 on 9 df, p 0.908
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 50.2%283 | +3.00.486 | -0.90.832 | -2.00.633 | +1.10.796 | -0.60.892 | -5.20.338 | -1.30.757 | -3.70.390 | -1.60.713 |
| Breakable full fence | -3.00.486 | 47.2%269 | -3.90.366 | -5.00.245 | -1.90.664 | -3.50.413 | -8.20.136 | -4.30.321 | -6.70.126 | -4.50.297 |
| Half fence | +0.90.832 | +3.90.366 | 51.1%280 | -1.10.790 | +2.00.640 | +0.30.942 | -4.30.429 | -0.40.921 | -2.80.515 | -0.70.873 |
| Breakable half fence | +2.00.633 | +5.00.245 | +1.10.790 | 52.2%272 | +3.10.466 | +1.40.737 | -3.20.561 | +0.70.868 | -1.70.700 | +0.50.919 |
| Low fence | -1.10.796 | +1.90.664 | -2.00.640 | -3.10.466 | 49.1%271 | -1.70.698 | -6.30.249 | -2.40.575 | -4.80.270 | -2.70.538 |
| Single wall | +0.60.892 | +3.50.413 | -0.30.942 | -1.40.737 | +1.70.698 | 50.8%264 | -4.60.400 | -0.70.865 | -3.10.476 | -1.00.818 |
| Fence and open | +5.20.338 | +8.20.136 | +4.30.429 | +3.20.561 | +6.30.249 | +4.60.400 | 55.4%121 | +3.90.478 | +1.50.785 | +3.60.513 |
| Open | +1.30.757 | +4.30.321 | +0.40.921 | -0.70.868 | +2.40.575 | +0.70.865 | -3.90.478 | 51.5%268 | -2.40.584 | -0.30.950 |
| Rectangle | +3.70.390 | +6.70.126 | +2.80.515 | +1.70.700 | +4.80.270 | +3.10.476 | -1.50.785 | +2.40.584 | 53.9%258 | +2.10.632 |
| Octagon | +1.60.713 | +4.50.297 | +0.70.873 | -0.50.919 | +2.70.538 | +1.00.818 | -3.60.513 | +0.30.950 | -2.10.632 | 51.8%255 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted2,516
Win rate51.0%
Widest swing4.3 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jeffry's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 55.3% | +4.3 | 0.346 | 114 | |
| Rectangle | 54.2% | +3.3 | 0.275 | 247 | |
| Breakable half fence | 52.9% | +1.9 | 0.512 | 261 | |
| Single wall | 52.7% | +1.8 | 0.569 | 241 | |
| Open | 52.6% | +1.7 | 0.575 | 245 | |
| Octagon | 51.5% | +0.6 | 0.858 | 231 | |
| Half fence | 51.1% | +0.2 | 0.952 | 266 | |
| Full fence | 49.8% | -1.1 | 0.691 | 273 | |
| Low fence | 49.2% | -1.7 | 0.558 | 256 | |
| Breakable full fence | 47.5% | -3.5 | 0.239 | 259 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jeffry's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 4.38 on 9 df, p 0.885
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 49.8%273 | +2.30.592 | -1.30.761 | -3.00.480 | +0.60.891 | -2.90.514 | -5.40.328 | -2.80.519 | -4.40.312 | -1.70.704 |
| Breakable full fence | -2.30.592 | 47.5%259 | -3.60.405 | -5.40.220 | -1.70.695 | -5.20.245 | -7.80.167 | -5.20.247 | -6.80.128 | -4.00.374 |
| Half fence | +1.30.761 | +3.60.405 | 51.1%266 | -1.70.688 | +1.90.663 | -1.60.724 | -4.10.460 | -1.50.730 | -3.10.479 | -0.40.931 |
| Breakable half fence | +3.00.480 | +5.40.220 | +1.70.688 | 52.9%261 | +3.60.406 | +0.20.968 | -2.40.670 | +0.20.960 | -1.40.756 | +1.40.763 |
| Low fence | -0.60.891 | +1.70.695 | -1.90.663 | -3.60.406 | 49.2%256 | -3.50.438 | -6.00.283 | -3.40.442 | -5.00.259 | -2.30.613 |
| Single wall | +2.90.514 | +5.20.245 | +1.60.724 | -0.20.968 | +3.50.438 | 52.7%241 | -2.60.651 | +0.10.992 | -1.60.731 | +1.20.797 |
| Fence and open | +5.40.328 | +7.80.167 | +4.10.460 | +2.40.670 | +6.00.283 | +2.60.651 | 55.3%114 | +2.60.644 | +1.00.858 | +3.70.512 |
| Open | +2.80.519 | +5.20.247 | +1.50.730 | -0.20.960 | +3.40.442 | -0.10.992 | -2.60.644 | 52.6%245 | -1.60.722 | +1.10.804 |
| Rectangle | +4.40.312 | +6.80.128 | +3.10.479 | +1.40.756 | +5.00.259 | +1.60.731 | -1.00.858 | +1.60.722 | 54.2%247 | +2.70.549 |
| Octagon | +1.70.704 | +4.00.374 | +0.40.931 | -1.40.763 | +2.30.613 | -1.20.797 | -3.70.512 | -1.10.804 | -2.70.549 | 51.5%231 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted155
Win rate44.5%
Widest swing15.5 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jeffry's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 60.0% | +15.5 | 0.308 | 10 · | |
| Fence and open | 57.1% | +12.6 | 0.492 | 7 · | |
| Octagon | 54.2% | +9.7 | 0.301 | 24 · | |
| Half fence | 50.0% | +5.5 | 0.665 | 14 · | |
| Low fence | 46.7% | +2.1 | 0.860 | 15 · | |
| Rectangle | 45.5% | +0.9 | 0.948 | 11 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 40.0% | -4.5 | 0.766 | 10 · | |
| Open | 39.1% | -5.4 | 0.573 | 23 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 36.4% | -8.2 | 0.572 | 11 · | |
| Single wall | 30.4% | -14.1 | 0.141 | 23 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jeffry's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 5.02 on 9 df, p 0.832
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 60.0%10 | +20.00.371 | +10.00.628 | +23.60.279 | +13.30.513 | +29.60.110 | +2.90.906 | +20.90.269 | +14.60.505 | +5.80.755 |
| Breakable full fence | -20.00.371 | 40.0%10 | -10.00.628 | +3.60.864 | -6.70.742 | +9.60.592 | -17.10.486 | +0.90.963 | -5.50.801 | -14.20.452 |
| Half fence | -10.00.628 | +10.00.628 | 50.0%14 | +13.60.495 | +3.30.858 | +19.60.234 | -7.10.757 | +10.90.517 | +4.50.821 | -4.20.804 |
| Breakable half fence | -23.60.279 | -3.60.864 | -13.60.495 | 36.4%11 | -10.30.599 | +5.90.730 | -20.80.387 | -2.80.877 | -9.10.665 | -17.80.328 |
| Low fence | -13.30.513 | +6.70.742 | -3.30.858 | +10.30.599 | 46.7%15 | +16.20.311 | -10.50.647 | +7.50.646 | +1.20.951 | -7.50.648 |
| Single wall | -29.60.110 | -9.60.592 | -19.60.234 | -5.90.730 | -16.20.311 | 30.4%23 | -26.70.199 | -8.70.536 | -15.00.391 | -23.70.100 |
| Fence and open | -2.90.906 | +17.10.486 | +7.10.757 | +20.80.387 | +10.50.647 | +26.70.199 | 57.1%7 | +18.00.400 | +11.70.629 | +3.00.889 |
| Open | -20.90.269 | -0.90.963 | -10.90.517 | +2.80.877 | -7.50.646 | +8.70.536 | -18.00.400 | 39.1%23 | -6.30.726 | -15.00.302 |
| Rectangle | -14.60.505 | +5.50.801 | -4.50.821 | +9.10.665 | -1.20.951 | +15.00.391 | -11.70.629 | +6.30.726 | 45.5%11 | -8.70.632 |
| Octagon | -5.80.755 | +14.20.452 | +4.20.804 | +17.80.328 | +7.50.648 | +23.70.100 | -3.00.889 | +15.00.302 | +8.70.632 | 54.2%24 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.