Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Jeffry vs Vanessa
Matches counted1,706
Win rate47.4%
Widest swing5.5 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jeffry's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Octagon | 52.9% | +5.5 | 0.109 | 189 | |
| Rectangle | 52.7% | +5.3 | 0.128 | 184 | |
| Full fence | 47.7% | +0.3 | 0.938 | 174 | |
| Breakable half fence | 47.5% | +0.1 | 0.988 | 139 | |
| Open | 47.2% | -0.2 | 0.955 | 180 | |
| Single wall | 46.9% | -0.5 | 0.892 | 162 | |
| Low fence | 46.8% | -0.6 | 0.870 | 156 | |
| Breakable full fence | 46.0% | -1.4 | 0.668 | 200 | |
| Half fence | 44.0% | -3.4 | 0.349 | 166 | |
| Fence and open | 42.7% | -4.7 | 0.359 | 89 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jeffry's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 6.07 on 9 df, p 0.733
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 47.7%174 | +1.70.742 | +3.70.491 | +0.20.969 | +0.90.869 | +0.80.885 | +5.00.441 | +0.50.928 | -5.00.343 | -5.20.321 |
| Breakable full fence | -1.70.742 | 46.0%200 | +2.00.698 | -1.50.788 | -0.80.881 | -0.90.862 | +3.30.602 | -1.20.812 | -6.70.188 | -6.90.173 |
| Half fence | -3.70.491 | -2.00.698 | 44.0%166 | -3.50.540 | -2.80.612 | -2.90.593 | +1.30.844 | -3.20.545 | -8.70.102 | -8.90.093 |
| Breakable half fence | -0.20.969 | +1.50.788 | +3.50.540 | 47.5%139 | +0.70.906 | +0.60.922 | +4.80.479 | +0.30.963 | -5.20.351 | -5.40.331 |
| Low fence | -0.90.869 | +0.80.881 | +2.80.612 | -0.70.906 | 46.8%156 | -0.10.983 | +4.10.535 | -0.40.938 | -5.90.276 | -6.10.258 |
| Single wall | -0.80.885 | +0.90.862 | +2.90.593 | -0.60.922 | +0.10.983 | 46.9%162 | +4.20.521 | -0.30.954 | -5.80.281 | -6.00.263 |
| Fence and open | -5.00.441 | -3.30.602 | -1.30.844 | -4.80.479 | -4.10.535 | -4.20.521 | 42.7%89 | -4.50.483 | -10.00.121 | -10.20.112 |
| Open | -0.50.928 | +1.20.812 | +3.20.545 | -0.30.963 | +0.40.938 | +0.30.954 | +4.50.483 | 47.2%180 | -5.50.294 | -5.70.275 |
| Rectangle | +5.00.343 | +6.70.188 | +8.70.102 | +5.20.351 | +5.90.276 | +5.80.281 | +10.00.121 | +5.50.294 | 52.7%184 | -0.20.970 |
| Octagon | +5.20.321 | +6.90.173 | +8.90.093 | +5.40.331 | +6.10.258 | +6.00.263 | +10.20.112 | +5.70.275 | +0.20.970 | 52.9%189 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted1,502
Win rate48.5%
Widest swing4.7 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jeffry's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rectangle | 53.1% | +4.7 | 0.212 | 160 | |
| Octagon | 53.0% | +4.5 | 0.214 | 166 | |
| Breakable half fence | 50.4% | +2.0 | 0.659 | 117 | |
| Open | 50.3% | +1.8 | 0.622 | 159 | |
| Full fence | 49.1% | +0.6 | 0.875 | 159 | |
| Single wall | 47.2% | -1.3 | 0.747 | 142 | |
| Low fence | 46.6% | -1.9 | 0.636 | 148 | |
| Half fence | 45.5% | -3.0 | 0.448 | 143 | |
| Breakable full fence | 45.4% | -3.1 | 0.389 | 174 | |
| Fence and open | 44.4% | -4.0 | 0.484 | 72 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jeffry's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 5.07 on 9 df, p 0.828
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 49.1%159 | +3.70.505 | +3.60.531 | -1.40.822 | +2.40.670 | +1.90.745 | +4.60.516 | -1.20.823 | -4.10.467 | -4.00.476 |
| Breakable full fence | -3.70.505 | 45.4%174 | -0.10.993 | -5.00.400 | -1.20.827 | -1.80.752 | +1.00.891 | -4.90.370 | -7.70.158 | -7.60.161 |
| Half fence | -3.60.531 | +0.10.993 | 45.5%143 | -5.00.424 | -1.20.842 | -1.70.770 | +1.00.888 | -4.90.399 | -7.70.182 | -7.60.185 |
| Breakable half fence | +1.40.822 | +5.00.400 | +5.00.424 | 50.4%117 | +3.80.538 | +3.20.603 | +6.00.424 | +0.10.985 | -2.70.657 | -2.60.668 |
| Low fence | -2.40.670 | +1.20.827 | +1.20.842 | -3.80.538 | 46.6%148 | -0.60.924 | +2.20.761 | -3.70.518 | -6.50.254 | -6.40.258 |
| Single wall | -1.90.745 | +1.80.752 | +1.70.770 | -3.20.603 | +0.60.924 | 47.2%142 | +2.70.704 | -3.10.587 | -5.90.303 | -5.80.308 |
| Fence and open | -4.60.516 | -1.00.891 | -1.00.888 | -6.00.424 | -2.20.761 | -2.70.704 | 44.4%72 | -5.90.408 | -8.70.221 | -8.60.225 |
| Open | +1.20.823 | +4.90.370 | +4.90.399 | -0.10.985 | +3.70.518 | +3.10.587 | +5.90.408 | 50.3%159 | -2.80.615 | -2.70.627 |
| Rectangle | +4.10.467 | +7.70.158 | +7.70.182 | +2.70.657 | +6.50.254 | +5.90.303 | +8.70.221 | +2.80.615 | 53.1%160 | +0.10.984 |
| Octagon | +4.00.476 | +7.60.161 | +7.60.185 | +2.60.668 | +6.40.258 | +5.80.308 | +8.60.225 | +2.70.627 | -0.10.984 | 53.0%166 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted204
Win rate39.7%
Widest swing-15.9 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jeffry's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Octagon | 52.2% | +12.5 | 0.194 | 23 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 50.0% | +10.3 | 0.251 | 26 · | |
| Low fence | 50.0% | +10.3 | 0.544 | 8 · | |
| Rectangle | 50.0% | +10.3 | 0.273 | 24 · | |
| Single wall | 45.0% | +5.3 | 0.610 | 20 · | |
| Fence and open | 35.3% | -4.4 | 0.698 | 17 · | |
| Half fence | 34.8% | -4.9 | 0.608 | 23 · | |
| Full fence | 33.3% | -6.4 | 0.600 | 15 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 31.8% | -7.9 | 0.423 | 22 · | |
| Open | 23.8% | -15.9 | 0.116 | 21 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jeffry's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 7.56 on 9 df, p 0.579
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 33.3%15 | -16.70.300 | -1.40.927 | +1.50.923 | -16.70.435 | -11.70.486 | -2.00.907 | +9.50.529 | -16.70.307 | -18.80.254 |
| Breakable full fence | +16.70.300 | 50.0%26 | +15.20.283 | +18.20.203 | +0.01.000 | +5.00.736 | +14.70.342 | +26.20.066 | +0.01.000 | -2.20.879 |
| Half fence | +1.40.927 | -15.20.283 | 34.8%23 | +3.00.833 | -15.20.447 | -10.20.494 | -0.50.973 | +11.00.426 | -15.20.292 | -17.40.234 |
| Breakable half fence | -1.50.923 | -18.20.203 | -3.00.833 | 31.8%22 | -18.20.361 | -13.20.380 | -3.50.819 | +8.00.558 | -18.20.211 | -20.40.167 |
| Low fence | +16.70.435 | -0.01.000 | +15.20.447 | +18.20.361 | 50.0%8 | +5.00.811 | +14.70.484 | +26.20.173 | +0.01.000 | -2.20.916 |
| Single wall | +11.70.486 | -5.00.736 | +10.20.494 | +13.20.380 | -5.00.811 | 45.0%20 | +9.70.549 | +21.20.153 | -5.00.741 | -7.20.639 |
| Fence and open | +2.00.907 | -14.70.342 | +0.50.973 | +3.50.819 | -14.70.484 | -9.70.549 | 35.3%17 | +11.50.438 | -14.70.350 | -16.90.289 |
| Open | -9.50.529 | -26.20.066 | -11.00.426 | -8.00.558 | -26.20.173 | -21.20.153 | -11.50.438 | 23.8%21 | -26.20.071 | -28.40.054 |
| Rectangle | +16.70.307 | -0.01.000 | +15.20.292 | +18.20.211 | -0.01.000 | +5.00.741 | +14.70.350 | +26.20.071 | 50.0%24 | -2.20.882 |
| Octagon | +18.80.254 | +2.20.879 | +17.40.234 | +20.40.167 | +2.20.916 | +7.20.639 | +16.90.289 | +28.40.054 | +2.20.882 | 52.2%23 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.