Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Jeffry vs Shun
Matches counted2,414
Win rate49.3%
Widest swing-7.2 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jeffry's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Half fence | 55.2% | +5.8 | 0.068 | 223 | |
| Breakable full fence | 53.6% | +4.2 | 0.168 | 237 | |
| Octagon | 51.4% | +2.0 | 0.527 | 216 | |
| Breakable half fence | 51.1% | +1.8 | 0.575 | 219 | |
| Full fence | 50.4% | +1.0 | 0.719 | 266 | |
| Rectangle | 49.2% | -0.1 | 0.960 | 246 | |
| Single wall | 48.0% | -1.3 | 0.674 | 225 | |
| Open | 46.8% | -2.5 | 0.433 | 220 | |
| Fence and open | 45.7% | -3.6 | 0.400 | 129 | |
| Low fence | 42.1% | -7.2 | 0.006 | 311 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jeffry's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 13.36 on 9 df, p 0.147
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 50.4%266 | -3.20.472 | -4.80.292 | -0.80.867 | +8.30.047 | +2.40.600 | +4.60.387 | +3.60.435 | +1.20.788 | -1.00.825 |
| Breakable full fence | +3.20.472 | 53.6%237 | -1.60.735 | +2.50.601 | +11.50.008 | +5.60.230 | +7.80.151 | +6.80.148 | +4.40.334 | +2.20.640 |
| Half fence | +4.80.292 | +1.60.735 | 55.2%223 | +4.00.398 | +13.00.003 | +7.20.130 | +9.40.088 | +8.30.079 | +6.00.196 | +3.80.429 |
| Breakable half fence | +0.80.867 | -2.50.601 | -4.00.398 | 51.1%219 | +9.00.040 | +3.10.508 | +5.40.330 | +4.30.365 | +1.90.674 | -0.20.959 |
| Low fence | -8.30.047 | -11.50.008 | -13.00.003 | -9.00.040 | 42.1%311 | -5.90.177 | -3.60.486 | -4.70.283 | -7.10.096 | -9.30.036 |
| Single wall | -2.40.600 | -5.60.230 | -7.20.130 | -3.10.508 | +5.90.177 | 48.0%225 | +2.30.681 | +1.20.803 | -1.20.797 | -3.40.477 |
| Fence and open | -4.60.387 | -7.80.151 | -9.40.088 | -5.40.330 | +3.60.486 | -2.30.681 | 45.7%129 | -1.10.845 | -3.50.525 | -5.70.310 |
| Open | -3.60.435 | -6.80.148 | -8.30.079 | -4.30.365 | +4.70.283 | -1.20.803 | +1.10.845 | 46.8%220 | -2.40.609 | -4.60.340 |
| Rectangle | -1.20.788 | -4.40.334 | -6.00.196 | -1.90.674 | +7.10.096 | +1.20.797 | +3.50.525 | +2.40.609 | 49.2%246 | -2.20.637 |
| Octagon | +1.00.825 | -2.20.640 | -3.80.429 | +0.20.959 | +9.30.036 | +3.40.477 | +5.70.310 | +4.60.340 | +2.20.637 | 51.4%216 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted2,237
Win rate49.5%
Widest swing-6.4 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jeffry's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Half fence | 53.9% | +4.3 | 0.191 | 208 | |
| Breakable full fence | 53.4% | +3.9 | 0.226 | 221 | |
| Breakable half fence | 52.9% | +3.3 | 0.311 | 210 | |
| Octagon | 51.5% | +2.0 | 0.560 | 202 | |
| Full fence | 50.6% | +1.1 | 0.720 | 241 | |
| Single wall | 49.5% | -0.0 | 0.996 | 206 | |
| Rectangle | 48.0% | -1.5 | 0.631 | 227 | |
| Open | 47.6% | -2.0 | 0.555 | 206 | |
| Fence and open | 44.3% | -5.3 | 0.231 | 122 | |
| Low fence | 43.2% | -6.4 | 0.023 | 278 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jeffry's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 10.61 on 9 df, p 0.304
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 50.6%241 | -2.80.551 | -3.20.495 | -2.20.636 | +7.50.089 | +1.10.815 | +6.40.252 | +3.00.520 | +2.60.573 | -0.90.856 |
| Breakable full fence | +2.80.551 | 53.4%221 | -0.50.925 | +0.50.911 | +10.20.023 | +3.90.423 | +9.10.105 | +5.80.229 | +5.40.255 | +1.90.695 |
| Half fence | +3.20.495 | +0.50.925 | 53.9%208 | +1.00.839 | +10.70.020 | +4.30.378 | +9.60.093 | +6.30.202 | +5.80.225 | +2.40.632 |
| Breakable half fence | +2.20.636 | -0.50.911 | -1.00.839 | 52.9%210 | +9.70.034 | +3.40.495 | +8.60.131 | +5.30.281 | +4.80.312 | +1.40.780 |
| Low fence | -7.50.089 | -10.20.023 | -10.70.020 | -9.70.034 | 43.2%278 | -6.30.166 | -1.10.839 | -4.40.335 | -4.80.276 | -8.30.071 |
| Single wall | -1.10.815 | -3.90.423 | -4.30.378 | -3.40.495 | +6.30.166 | 49.5%206 | +5.20.357 | +1.90.693 | +1.50.756 | -2.00.691 |
| Fence and open | -6.40.252 | -9.10.105 | -9.60.093 | -8.60.131 | +1.10.839 | -5.20.357 | 44.3%122 | -3.30.561 | -3.80.503 | -7.20.208 |
| Open | -3.00.520 | -5.80.229 | -6.30.202 | -5.30.281 | +4.40.335 | -1.90.693 | +3.30.561 | 47.6%206 | -0.50.926 | -3.90.429 |
| Rectangle | -2.60.573 | -5.40.255 | -5.80.225 | -4.80.312 | +4.80.276 | -1.50.756 | +3.80.503 | +0.50.926 | 48.0%227 | -3.50.473 |
| Octagon | +0.90.856 | -1.90.695 | -2.40.632 | -1.40.780 | +8.30.071 | +2.00.691 | +7.20.208 | +3.90.429 | +3.50.473 | 51.5%202 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted177
Win rate46.9%
Widest swing-35.8 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jeffry's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Half fence | 73.3% | +26.4 | 0.032 | 15 · | |
| Fence and open | 71.4% | +24.5 | 0.184 | 7 · | |
| Rectangle | 63.2% | +16.3 | 0.133 | 19 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 56.2% | +9.4 | 0.432 | 16 · | |
| Octagon | 50.0% | +3.1 | 0.808 | 14 · | |
| Full fence | 48.0% | +1.1 | 0.905 | 25 · | |
| Open | 35.7% | -11.2 | 0.382 | 14 · | |
| Low fence | 33.3% | -13.6 | 0.084 | 33 · | |
| Single wall | 31.6% | -15.3 | 0.157 | 19 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 11.1% | -35.8 | 0.027 | 9 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jeffry's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 18.11 on 9 df, p 0.034
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 48.0%25 | -8.20.606 | -25.30.117 | +36.90.051 | +14.70.258 | +16.40.272 | -23.40.272 | +12.30.458 | -15.20.317 | -2.00.905 |
| Breakable full fence | +8.20.606 | 56.2%16 | -17.10.320 | +45.10.027 | +22.90.126 | +24.70.142 | -15.20.493 | +20.50.261 | -6.90.678 | +6.20.732 |
| Half fence | +25.30.117 | +17.10.320 | 73.3%15 | +62.20.003 | +40.00.010 | +41.80.016 | +1.90.926 | +37.60.042 | +10.20.529 | +23.30.196 |
| Breakable half fence | -36.90.051 | -45.10.027 | -62.20.003 | 11.1%9 | -22.20.191 | -20.50.243 | -60.30.013 | -24.60.190 | -52.00.010 | -38.90.056 |
| Low fence | -14.70.258 | -22.90.126 | -40.00.010 | +22.20.191 | 33.3%33 | +1.80.897 | -38.10.062 | -2.40.875 | -29.80.037 | -16.70.282 |
| Single wall | -16.40.272 | -24.70.142 | -41.80.016 | +20.50.243 | -1.80.897 | 31.6%19 | -39.90.068 | -4.10.803 | -31.60.051 | -18.40.284 |
| Fence and open | +23.40.272 | +15.20.493 | -1.90.926 | +60.30.013 | +38.10.062 | +39.90.068 | 71.4%7 | +35.70.122 | +8.30.694 | +21.40.350 |
| Open | -12.30.458 | -20.50.261 | -37.60.042 | +24.60.190 | +2.40.875 | +4.10.803 | -35.70.122 | 35.7%14 | -27.40.119 | -14.30.445 |
| Rectangle | +15.20.317 | +6.90.678 | -10.20.529 | +52.00.010 | +29.80.037 | +31.60.051 | -8.30.694 | +27.40.119 | 63.2%19 | +13.20.450 |
| Octagon | +2.00.905 | -6.20.732 | -23.30.196 | +38.90.056 | +16.70.282 | +18.40.284 | -21.40.350 | +14.30.445 | -13.20.450 | 50.0%14 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.