Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Jeffry vs Sarah
Matches counted2,259
Win rate52.9%
Widest swing-6.7 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jeffry's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakable half fence | 58.9% | +6.0 | 0.078 | 197 | |
| Full fence | 56.8% | +3.9 | 0.230 | 213 | |
| Breakable full fence | 56.6% | +3.8 | 0.226 | 233 | |
| Rectangle | 55.9% | +3.0 | 0.380 | 195 | |
| Open | 53.6% | +0.7 | 0.823 | 237 | |
| Fence and open | 53.0% | +0.1 | 0.984 | 151 | |
| Single wall | 51.9% | -1.0 | 0.762 | 210 | |
| Octagon | 51.0% | -1.9 | 0.540 | 241 | |
| Low fence | 50.0% | -2.9 | 0.353 | 230 | |
| Half fence | 46.2% | -6.7 | 0.029 | 238 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jeffry's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 11.57 on 9 df, p 0.239
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 56.8%213 | +0.20.974 | +10.60.025 | -2.10.671 | +6.80.151 | +4.90.311 | +3.80.469 | +3.20.493 | +0.90.853 | +5.80.218 |
| Breakable full fence | -0.20.974 | 56.6%233 | +10.40.024 | -2.20.641 | +6.70.151 | +4.80.316 | +3.70.480 | +3.10.504 | +0.80.875 | +5.60.220 |
| Half fence | -10.60.025 | -10.40.024 | 46.2%238 | -12.70.008 | -3.80.413 | -5.70.230 | -6.80.194 | -7.40.108 | -9.70.045 | -4.80.291 |
| Breakable half fence | +2.10.671 | +2.20.641 | +12.70.008 | 58.9%197 | +8.90.066 | +7.00.157 | +5.90.271 | +5.30.268 | +3.00.550 | +7.80.101 |
| Low fence | -6.80.151 | -6.70.151 | +3.80.413 | -8.90.066 | 50.0%230 | -1.90.690 | -3.00.569 | -3.60.438 | -5.90.225 | -1.00.822 |
| Single wall | -4.90.311 | -4.80.316 | +5.70.230 | -7.00.157 | +1.90.690 | 51.9%210 | -1.10.840 | -1.70.722 | -4.00.421 | +0.90.854 |
| Fence and open | -3.80.469 | -3.70.480 | +6.80.194 | -5.90.271 | +3.00.569 | +1.10.840 | 53.0%151 | -0.60.907 | -2.90.589 | +1.90.708 |
| Open | -3.20.493 | -3.10.504 | +7.40.108 | -5.30.268 | +3.60.438 | +1.70.722 | +0.60.907 | 53.6%237 | -2.30.631 | +2.50.577 |
| Rectangle | -0.90.853 | -0.80.875 | +9.70.045 | -3.00.550 | +5.90.225 | +4.00.421 | +2.90.589 | +2.30.631 | 55.9%195 | +4.90.312 |
| Octagon | -5.80.218 | -5.60.220 | +4.80.291 | -7.80.101 | +1.00.822 | -0.90.854 | -1.90.708 | -2.50.577 | -4.90.312 | 51.0%241 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted2,059
Win rate52.3%
Widest swing7.2 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jeffry's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakable half fence | 59.4% | +7.2 | 0.051 | 170 | |
| Full fence | 57.9% | +5.7 | 0.090 | 202 | |
| Breakable full fence | 56.3% | +4.0 | 0.220 | 206 | |
| Rectangle | 55.0% | +2.7 | 0.441 | 180 | |
| Octagon | 52.5% | +0.2 | 0.947 | 223 | |
| Fence and open | 51.8% | -0.5 | 0.899 | 143 | |
| Open | 51.5% | -0.8 | 0.812 | 204 | |
| Single wall | 50.8% | -1.5 | 0.655 | 199 | |
| Low fence | 48.4% | -3.9 | 0.229 | 213 | |
| Half fence | 45.7% | -6.6 | 0.039 | 221 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jeffry's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 13.18 on 9 df, p 0.155
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 57.9%202 | +1.60.742 | +12.20.012 | -1.50.771 | +9.60.051 | +7.20.150 | +6.20.256 | +6.50.192 | +2.90.565 | +5.50.259 |
| Breakable full fence | -1.60.742 | 56.3%206 | +10.60.028 | -3.10.545 | +8.00.103 | +5.60.262 | +4.60.400 | +4.80.326 | +1.30.796 | +3.80.425 |
| Half fence | -12.20.012 | -10.60.028 | 45.7%221 | -13.70.007 | -2.70.580 | -5.00.301 | -6.00.259 | -5.80.234 | -9.30.064 | -6.80.154 |
| Breakable half fence | +1.50.771 | +3.10.545 | +13.70.007 | 59.4%170 | +11.10.031 | +8.70.096 | +7.70.174 | +7.90.124 | +4.40.405 | +6.90.170 |
| Low fence | -9.60.051 | -8.00.103 | +2.70.580 | -11.10.031 | 48.4%213 | -2.40.627 | -3.40.530 | -3.10.525 | -6.60.189 | -4.10.391 |
| Single wall | -7.20.150 | -5.60.262 | +5.00.301 | -8.70.096 | +2.40.627 | 50.8%199 | -1.00.856 | -0.70.886 | -4.20.408 | -1.70.725 |
| Fence and open | -6.20.256 | -4.60.400 | +6.00.259 | -7.70.174 | +3.40.530 | +1.00.856 | 51.8%143 | +0.30.959 | -3.20.561 | -0.70.893 |
| Open | -6.50.192 | -4.80.326 | +5.80.234 | -7.90.124 | +3.10.525 | +0.70.886 | -0.30.959 | 51.5%204 | -3.50.489 | -1.00.837 |
| Rectangle | -2.90.565 | -1.30.796 | +9.30.064 | -4.40.405 | +6.60.189 | +4.20.408 | +3.20.561 | +3.50.489 | 55.0%180 | +2.50.612 |
| Octagon | -5.50.259 | -3.80.425 | +6.80.154 | -6.90.170 | +4.10.391 | +1.70.725 | +0.70.893 | +1.00.837 | -2.50.612 | 52.5%223 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted200
Win rate59.5%
Widest swing-26.2 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jeffry's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 75.0% | +15.5 | 0.362 | 8 · | |
| Single wall | 72.7% | +13.2 | 0.358 | 11 · | |
| Low fence | 70.6% | +11.1 | 0.330 | 17 · | |
| Open | 66.7% | +7.2 | 0.359 | 33 · | |
| Rectangle | 66.7% | +7.2 | 0.557 | 15 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 59.3% | -0.2 | 0.978 | 27 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 55.6% | -3.9 | 0.653 | 27 · | |
| Half fence | 52.9% | -6.6 | 0.565 | 17 · | |
| Full fence | 36.4% | -23.1 | 0.108 | 11 · | |
| Octagon | 33.3% | -26.2 | 0.018 | 18 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jeffry's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 11.40 on 9 df, p 0.249
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 36.4%11 | -22.90.200 | -16.60.390 | -19.20.283 | -34.20.074 | -36.40.087 | -38.60.096 | -30.30.077 | -30.30.126 | +3.00.868 |
| Breakable full fence | +22.90.200 | 59.3%27 | +6.30.680 | +3.70.783 | -11.30.447 | -13.50.435 | -15.70.418 | -7.40.554 | -7.40.636 | +25.90.088 |
| Half fence | +16.60.390 | -6.30.680 | 52.9%17 | -2.60.865 | -17.60.290 | -19.80.295 | -22.10.294 | -13.70.344 | -13.70.430 | +19.60.241 |
| Breakable half fence | +19.20.283 | -3.70.783 | +2.60.865 | 55.6%27 | -15.00.319 | -17.20.326 | -19.40.324 | -11.10.379 | -11.10.482 | +22.20.143 |
| Low fence | +34.20.074 | +11.30.447 | +17.60.290 | +15.00.319 | 70.6%17 | -2.10.903 | -4.40.819 | +3.90.778 | +3.90.811 | +37.30.028 |
| Single wall | +36.40.087 | +13.50.435 | +19.80.295 | +17.20.326 | +2.10.903 | 72.7%11 | -2.30.912 | +6.10.709 | +6.10.741 | +39.40.039 |
| Fence and open | +38.60.096 | +15.70.418 | +22.10.294 | +19.40.324 | +4.40.819 | +2.30.912 | 75.0%8 | +8.30.650 | +8.30.679 | +41.70.049 |
| Open | +30.30.077 | +7.40.554 | +13.70.344 | +11.10.379 | -3.90.778 | -6.10.709 | -8.30.650 | 66.7%33 | +0.01.000 | +33.30.022 |
| Rectangle | +30.30.126 | +7.40.636 | +13.70.430 | +11.10.482 | -3.90.811 | -6.10.741 | -8.30.679 | -0.01.000 | 66.7%15 | +33.30.056 |
| Octagon | -3.00.868 | -25.90.088 | -19.60.241 | -22.20.143 | -37.30.028 | -39.40.039 | -41.70.049 | -33.30.022 | -33.30.056 | 33.3%18 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.