Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Jeffry vs Pai
Matches counted1,850
Win rate52.5%
Widest swing7.0 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jeffry's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Octagon | 59.5% | +7.0 | 0.060 | 163 | |
| Fence and open | 58.7% | +6.2 | 0.221 | 92 | |
| Low fence | 54.6% | +2.2 | 0.551 | 172 | |
| Open | 54.3% | +1.8 | 0.594 | 199 | |
| Single wall | 53.7% | +1.2 | 0.720 | 188 | |
| Breakable half fence | 53.1% | +0.6 | 0.852 | 192 | |
| Rectangle | 50.7% | -1.8 | 0.566 | 221 | |
| Breakable full fence | 49.2% | -3.3 | 0.339 | 191 | |
| Half fence | 48.8% | -3.7 | 0.322 | 160 | |
| Full fence | 46.3% | -6.2 | 0.099 | 164 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jeffry's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 9.85 on 9 df, p 0.362
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 46.3%164 | -2.90.589 | -2.40.664 | -6.80.202 | -8.30.128 | -7.40.167 | -12.40.058 | -7.90.133 | -4.30.400 | -13.20.017 |
| Breakable full fence | +2.90.589 | 49.2%191 | +0.50.931 | -3.90.444 | -5.40.301 | -4.50.380 | -9.50.135 | -5.10.318 | -1.50.767 | -10.30.053 |
| Half fence | +2.40.664 | -0.50.931 | 48.8%160 | -4.40.414 | -5.90.282 | -5.00.355 | -9.90.128 | -5.50.298 | -1.90.710 | -10.80.052 |
| Breakable half fence | +6.80.202 | +3.90.444 | +4.40.414 | 53.1%192 | -1.50.771 | -0.60.907 | -5.60.377 | -1.10.820 | +2.40.620 | -6.40.227 |
| Low fence | +8.30.128 | +5.40.301 | +5.90.282 | +1.50.771 | 54.6%172 | +0.90.860 | -4.00.528 | +0.40.942 | +4.00.434 | -4.90.369 |
| Single wall | +7.40.167 | +4.50.380 | +5.00.355 | +0.60.907 | -0.90.860 | 53.7%188 | -5.00.432 | -0.60.914 | +3.00.539 | -5.80.276 |
| Fence and open | +12.40.058 | +9.50.135 | +9.90.128 | +5.60.377 | +4.00.528 | +5.00.432 | 58.7%92 | +4.40.480 | +8.00.195 | -0.80.899 |
| Open | +7.90.133 | +5.10.318 | +5.50.298 | +1.10.820 | -0.40.942 | +0.60.914 | -4.40.480 | 54.3%199 | +3.60.462 | -5.20.317 |
| Rectangle | +4.30.400 | +1.50.767 | +1.90.710 | -2.40.620 | -4.00.434 | -3.00.539 | -8.00.195 | -3.60.462 | 50.7%221 | -8.80.086 |
| Octagon | +13.20.017 | +10.30.053 | +10.80.052 | +6.40.227 | +4.90.369 | +5.80.276 | +0.80.899 | +5.20.317 | +8.80.086 | 59.5%163 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted1,762
Win rate52.5%
Widest swing-7.3 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jeffry's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 59.3% | +6.8 | 0.179 | 91 | |
| Octagon | 58.9% | +6.4 | 0.097 | 151 | |
| Low fence | 56.4% | +3.9 | 0.296 | 165 | |
| Single wall | 54.0% | +1.5 | 0.671 | 174 | |
| Open | 53.9% | +1.4 | 0.675 | 191 | |
| Breakable half fence | 52.9% | +0.4 | 0.898 | 187 | |
| Rectangle | 51.0% | -1.5 | 0.641 | 206 | |
| Breakable full fence | 49.2% | -3.3 | 0.343 | 183 | |
| Half fence | 48.0% | -4.5 | 0.248 | 154 | |
| Full fence | 45.2% | -7.3 | 0.056 | 157 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jeffry's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 11.10 on 9 df, p 0.269
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 45.2%157 | -4.00.466 | -2.80.617 | -7.70.154 | -11.10.046 | -8.80.110 | -14.10.032 | -8.70.106 | -5.80.278 | -13.70.016 |
| Breakable full fence | +4.00.466 | 49.2%183 | +1.10.836 | -3.80.469 | -7.20.180 | -4.80.360 | -10.20.113 | -4.80.359 | -1.80.724 | -9.80.075 |
| Half fence | +2.80.617 | -1.10.836 | 48.0%154 | -4.90.369 | -8.30.137 | -6.00.280 | -11.30.087 | -5.90.278 | -2.90.584 | -10.90.057 |
| Breakable half fence | +7.70.154 | +3.80.469 | +4.90.369 | 52.9%187 | -3.40.520 | -1.10.837 | -6.40.314 | -1.00.848 | +2.00.696 | -6.00.270 |
| Low fence | +11.10.046 | +7.20.180 | +8.30.137 | +3.40.520 | 56.4%165 | +2.30.665 | -3.00.645 | +2.40.645 | +5.40.301 | -2.60.643 |
| Single wall | +8.80.110 | +4.80.360 | +6.00.280 | +1.10.837 | -2.30.665 | 54.0%174 | -5.30.408 | +0.10.985 | +3.00.553 | -4.90.373 |
| Fence and open | +14.10.032 | +10.20.113 | +11.30.087 | +6.40.314 | +3.00.645 | +5.30.408 | 59.3%91 | +5.40.392 | +8.40.182 | +0.40.951 |
| Open | +8.70.106 | +4.80.359 | +5.90.278 | +1.00.848 | -2.40.645 | -0.10.985 | -5.40.392 | 53.9%191 | +3.00.556 | -5.00.353 |
| Rectangle | +5.80.278 | +1.80.724 | +2.90.584 | -2.00.696 | -5.40.301 | -3.00.553 | -8.40.182 | -3.00.556 | 51.0%206 | -8.00.135 |
| Octagon | +13.70.016 | +9.80.075 | +10.90.057 | +6.00.270 | +2.60.643 | +4.90.373 | -0.40.951 | +5.00.353 | +8.00.135 | 58.9%151 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted88
Win rate52.3%
Widest swing-52.3 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jeffry's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 71.4% | +19.2 | 0.290 | 7 · | |
| Half fence | 66.7% | +14.4 | 0.465 | 6 · | |
| Octagon | 66.7% | +14.4 | 0.283 | 12 · | |
| Open | 62.5% | +10.2 | 0.544 | 8 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 60.0% | +7.7 | 0.722 | 5 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 50.0% | -2.3 | 0.893 | 8 · | |
| Single wall | 50.0% | -2.3 | 0.853 | 14 · | |
| Rectangle | 46.7% | -5.6 | 0.633 | 15 · | |
| Low fence | 14.3% | -38.0 | 0.036 | 7 · | |
| Fence and open | 0.0% | -52.3 | 0.293 | 1 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jeffry's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 8.35 on 9 df, p 0.499
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 71.4%7 | +21.40.398 | +4.80.853 | +11.40.679 | +57.10.031 | +21.40.350 | +71.40.168 | +8.90.714 | +24.80.277 | +4.80.829 |
| Breakable full fence | -21.40.398 | 50.0%8 | -16.70.533 | -10.00.725 | +35.70.143 | +0.01.000 | +50.00.343 | -12.50.614 | +3.30.879 | -16.70.456 |
| Half fence | -4.80.853 | +16.70.533 | 66.7%6 | +6.70.819 | +52.40.053 | +16.70.492 | +66.70.212 | +4.20.872 | +20.00.407 | +0.01.000 |
| Breakable half fence | -11.40.679 | +10.00.725 | -6.70.819 | 60.0%5 | +45.70.098 | +10.00.701 | +60.00.273 | -2.50.928 | +13.30.606 | -6.70.793 |
| Low fence | -57.10.031 | -35.70.143 | -52.40.053 | -45.70.098 | 14.3%7 | -35.70.112 | +14.30.686 | -48.20.057 | -32.40.141 | -52.40.027 |
| Single wall | -21.40.350 | -0.01.000 | -16.70.492 | -10.00.701 | +35.70.112 | 50.0%14 | +50.00.333 | -12.50.571 | +3.30.858 | -16.70.391 |
| Fence and open | -71.40.168 | -50.00.343 | -66.70.212 | -60.00.273 | -14.30.686 | -50.00.333 | 0.0%1 | -62.50.236 | -46.70.362 | -66.70.188 |
| Open | -8.90.714 | +12.50.614 | -4.20.872 | +2.50.928 | +48.20.057 | +12.50.571 | +62.50.236 | 62.5%8 | +15.80.469 | -4.20.848 |
| Rectangle | -24.80.277 | -3.30.879 | -20.00.407 | -13.30.606 | +32.40.141 | -3.30.858 | +46.70.362 | -15.80.469 | 46.7%15 | -20.00.299 |
| Octagon | -4.80.829 | +16.70.456 | -0.01.000 | +6.70.793 | +52.40.027 | +16.70.391 | +66.70.188 | +4.20.848 | +20.00.299 | 66.7%12 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.