Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Jeffry vs Lion
Matches counted2,277
Win rate51.3%
Widest swing4.9 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jeffry's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 56.2% | +4.9 | 0.146 | 203 | |
| Breakable half fence | 55.9% | +4.6 | 0.161 | 213 | |
| Low fence | 55.1% | +3.8 | 0.280 | 187 | |
| Rectangle | 54.5% | +3.2 | 0.301 | 233 | |
| Fence and open | 50.5% | -0.8 | 0.858 | 109 | |
| Breakable full fence | 50.4% | -0.9 | 0.771 | 242 | |
| Half fence | 49.1% | -2.2 | 0.491 | 220 | |
| Single wall | 48.9% | -2.4 | 0.448 | 221 | |
| Octagon | 48.0% | -3.3 | 0.244 | 281 | |
| Open | 46.5% | -4.8 | 0.103 | 258 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jeffry's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 10.35 on 9 df, p 0.323
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 56.2%203 | +5.80.227 | +7.10.146 | +0.30.953 | +1.10.831 | +7.30.133 | +5.70.335 | +9.70.040 | +1.60.729 | +8.10.078 |
| Breakable full fence | -5.80.227 | 50.4%242 | +1.30.776 | -5.50.245 | -4.70.337 | +1.50.740 | -0.10.994 | +3.90.383 | -4.10.372 | +2.40.589 |
| Half fence | -7.10.146 | -1.30.776 | 49.1%220 | -6.80.158 | -6.00.228 | +0.20.963 | -1.40.815 | +2.60.574 | -5.40.249 | +1.10.816 |
| Breakable half fence | -0.30.953 | +5.50.245 | +6.80.158 | 55.9%213 | +0.80.874 | +7.00.144 | +5.40.357 | +9.40.043 | +1.40.773 | +7.80.085 |
| Low fence | -1.10.831 | +4.70.337 | +6.00.228 | -0.80.874 | 55.1%187 | +6.20.211 | +4.60.442 | +8.60.074 | +0.60.907 | +7.00.136 |
| Single wall | -7.30.133 | -1.50.740 | -0.20.963 | -7.00.144 | -6.20.211 | 48.9%221 | -1.60.786 | +2.40.607 | -5.60.230 | +0.80.854 |
| Fence and open | -5.70.335 | +0.10.994 | +1.40.815 | -5.40.357 | -4.60.442 | +1.60.786 | 50.5%109 | +4.00.489 | -4.00.485 | +2.40.668 |
| Open | -9.70.040 | -3.90.383 | -2.60.574 | -9.40.043 | -8.60.074 | -2.40.607 | -4.00.489 | 46.5%258 | -8.00.077 | -1.50.722 |
| Rectangle | -1.60.729 | +4.10.372 | +5.40.249 | -1.40.773 | -0.60.907 | +5.60.230 | +4.00.485 | +8.00.077 | 54.5%233 | +6.50.144 |
| Octagon | -8.10.078 | -2.40.589 | -1.10.816 | -7.80.085 | -7.00.136 | -0.80.854 | -2.40.668 | +1.50.722 | -6.50.144 | 48.0%281 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted1,996
Win rate50.2%
Widest swing6.6 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jeffry's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakable half fence | 56.8% | +6.6 | 0.061 | 185 | |
| Full fence | 55.4% | +5.2 | 0.148 | 175 | |
| Rectangle | 54.0% | +3.8 | 0.257 | 200 | |
| Low fence | 52.5% | +2.3 | 0.547 | 162 | |
| Fence and open | 50.0% | -0.2 | 0.968 | 98 | |
| Breakable full fence | 48.4% | -1.8 | 0.575 | 223 | |
| Half fence | 48.0% | -2.2 | 0.512 | 200 | |
| Octagon | 47.9% | -2.3 | 0.448 | 236 | |
| Single wall | 47.2% | -3.0 | 0.374 | 195 | |
| Open | 45.3% | -4.9 | 0.121 | 225 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jeffry's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 10.60 on 9 df, p 0.304
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 55.4%175 | +7.00.166 | +7.40.151 | -1.30.800 | +3.00.586 | +8.20.113 | +5.40.388 | +10.10.045 | +1.40.782 | +7.50.130 |
| Breakable full fence | -7.00.166 | 48.4%223 | +0.40.930 | -8.30.094 | -4.00.434 | +1.20.798 | -1.60.796 | +3.10.511 | -5.60.253 | +0.60.906 |
| Half fence | -7.40.151 | -0.40.930 | 48.0%200 | -8.80.086 | -4.50.398 | +0.80.870 | -2.00.746 | +2.70.582 | -6.00.230 | +0.10.980 |
| Breakable half fence | +1.30.800 | +8.30.094 | +8.80.086 | 56.8%185 | +4.30.423 | +9.60.062 | +6.80.278 | +11.40.021 | +2.80.587 | +8.90.070 |
| Low fence | -3.00.586 | +4.00.434 | +4.50.398 | -4.30.423 | 52.5%162 | +5.30.320 | +2.50.699 | +7.10.166 | -1.50.772 | +4.60.368 |
| Single wall | -8.20.113 | -1.20.798 | -0.80.870 | -9.60.062 | -5.30.320 | 47.2%195 | -2.80.648 | +1.90.705 | -6.80.175 | -0.70.885 |
| Fence and open | -5.40.388 | +1.60.796 | +2.00.746 | -6.80.278 | -2.50.699 | +2.80.648 | 50.0%98 | +4.70.440 | -4.00.516 | +2.10.724 |
| Open | -10.10.045 | -3.10.511 | -2.70.582 | -11.40.021 | -7.10.166 | -1.90.705 | -4.70.440 | 45.3%225 | -8.70.074 | -2.50.584 |
| Rectangle | -1.40.782 | +5.60.253 | +6.00.230 | -2.80.587 | +1.50.772 | +6.80.175 | +4.00.516 | +8.70.074 | 54.0%200 | +6.10.203 |
| Octagon | -7.50.130 | -0.60.906 | -0.10.980 | -8.90.070 | -4.60.368 | +0.70.885 | -2.10.724 | +2.50.584 | -6.10.203 | 47.9%236 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted281
Win rate59.1%
Widest swing14.6 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jeffry's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakable full fence | 73.7% | +14.6 | 0.180 | 19 · | |
| Low fence | 72.0% | +12.9 | 0.169 | 25 · | |
| Single wall | 61.5% | +2.5 | 0.789 | 26 · | |
| Full fence | 60.7% | +1.6 | 0.852 | 28 · | |
| Half fence | 60.0% | +0.9 | 0.930 | 20 · | |
| Rectangle | 57.6% | -1.5 | 0.852 | 33 · | |
| Fence and open | 54.5% | -4.5 | 0.755 | 11 · | |
| Open | 54.5% | -4.5 | 0.573 | 33 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 50.0% | -9.1 | 0.303 | 28 · | |
| Octagon | 48.9% | -10.2 | 0.129 | 45 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jeffry's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 6.67 on 9 df, p 0.671
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 60.7%28 | -13.00.357 | +0.70.960 | +10.70.420 | -11.30.386 | -0.80.951 | +6.20.725 | +6.20.627 | +3.10.804 | +11.80.325 |
| Breakable full fence | +13.00.357 | 73.7%19 | +13.70.365 | +23.70.104 | +1.70.901 | +12.10.393 | +19.10.284 | +19.10.172 | +16.10.245 | +24.80.068 |
| Half fence | -0.70.960 | -13.70.365 | 60.0%20 | +10.00.493 | -12.00.396 | -1.50.916 | +5.50.768 | +5.50.698 | +2.40.862 | +11.10.408 |
| Breakable half fence | -10.70.420 | -23.70.104 | -10.00.493 | 50.0%28 | -22.00.102 | -11.50.394 | -4.50.798 | -4.50.723 | -7.60.554 | +1.10.926 |
| Low fence | +11.30.386 | -1.70.901 | +12.00.396 | +22.00.102 | 72.0%25 | +10.50.428 | +17.40.306 | +17.40.175 | +14.40.258 | +23.10.061 |
| Single wall | +0.80.951 | -12.10.393 | +1.50.916 | +11.50.394 | -10.50.428 | 61.5%26 | +7.00.692 | +7.00.589 | +4.00.758 | +12.70.303 |
| Fence and open | -6.20.725 | -19.10.284 | -5.50.768 | +4.50.798 | -17.40.306 | -7.00.692 | 54.5%11 | +0.01.000 | -3.00.861 | +5.70.737 |
| Open | -6.20.627 | -19.10.172 | -5.50.698 | +4.50.723 | -17.40.175 | -7.00.589 | -0.01.000 | 54.5%33 | -3.00.804 | +5.70.621 |
| Rectangle | -3.10.804 | -16.10.245 | -2.40.862 | +7.60.554 | -14.40.258 | -4.00.758 | +3.00.861 | +3.00.804 | 57.6%33 | +8.70.448 |
| Octagon | -11.80.325 | -24.80.068 | -11.10.408 | -1.10.926 | -23.10.061 | -12.70.303 | -5.70.737 | -5.70.621 | -8.70.448 | 48.9%45 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.