Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Jeffry vs Lau
Matches counted2,706
Win rate47.7%
Widest swing-2.7 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jeffry's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rectangle | 49.6% | +2.0 | 0.483 | 282 | |
| Fence and open | 49.6% | +1.9 | 0.678 | 115 | |
| Full fence | 49.4% | +1.7 | 0.581 | 239 | |
| Octagon | 49.0% | +1.3 | 0.625 | 300 | |
| Open | 47.9% | +0.2 | 0.948 | 280 | |
| Low fence | 47.7% | +0.0 | 0.996 | 281 | |
| Breakable half fence | 46.6% | -1.1 | 0.696 | 294 | |
| Half fence | 46.5% | -1.2 | 0.682 | 271 | |
| Breakable full fence | 46.4% | -1.3 | 0.655 | 278 | |
| Single wall | 45.0% | -2.7 | 0.372 | 249 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jeffry's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 2.29 on 9 df, p 0.986
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 49.4%239 | +3.00.500 | +2.90.516 | +2.80.524 | +1.70.702 | +4.40.331 | -0.20.973 | +1.50.731 | -0.30.950 | +0.40.932 |
| Breakable full fence | -3.00.500 | 46.4%278 | -0.10.983 | -0.20.963 | -1.30.761 | +1.40.743 | -3.20.568 | -1.50.731 | -3.20.443 | -2.60.532 |
| Half fence | -2.90.516 | +0.10.983 | 46.5%271 | -0.10.980 | -1.20.779 | +1.50.729 | -3.10.581 | -1.40.749 | -3.20.458 | -2.50.549 |
| Breakable half fence | -2.80.524 | +0.20.963 | +0.10.980 | 46.6%294 | -1.10.794 | +1.60.706 | -3.00.589 | -1.30.763 | -3.00.464 | -2.40.558 |
| Low fence | -1.70.702 | +1.30.761 | +1.20.779 | +1.10.794 | 47.7%281 | +2.70.533 | -1.90.734 | -0.20.968 | -2.00.642 | -1.30.752 |
| Single wall | -4.40.331 | -1.40.743 | -1.50.729 | -1.60.706 | -2.70.533 | 45.0%249 | -4.60.415 | -2.90.508 | -4.70.283 | -4.00.348 |
| Fence and open | +0.20.973 | +3.20.568 | +3.10.581 | +3.00.589 | +1.90.734 | +4.60.415 | 49.6%115 | +1.70.758 | -0.10.988 | +0.60.918 |
| Open | -1.50.731 | +1.50.731 | +1.40.749 | +1.30.763 | +0.20.968 | +2.90.508 | -1.70.758 | 47.9%280 | -1.80.672 | -1.10.783 |
| Rectangle | +0.30.950 | +3.20.443 | +3.20.458 | +3.00.464 | +2.00.642 | +4.70.283 | +0.10.988 | +1.80.672 | 49.6%282 | +0.70.876 |
| Octagon | -0.40.932 | +2.60.532 | +2.50.549 | +2.40.558 | +1.30.752 | +4.00.348 | -0.60.918 | +1.10.783 | -0.70.876 | 49.0%300 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted2,367
Win rate49.4%
Widest swing2.7 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jeffry's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 52.1% | +2.7 | 0.593 | 94 | |
| Octagon | 51.5% | +2.1 | 0.472 | 264 | |
| Rectangle | 50.4% | +1.0 | 0.747 | 238 | |
| Breakable half fence | 50.0% | +0.6 | 0.846 | 258 | |
| Full fence | 49.5% | +0.1 | 0.975 | 214 | |
| Open | 49.0% | -0.4 | 0.887 | 251 | |
| Breakable full fence | 49.0% | -0.5 | 0.882 | 245 | |
| Low fence | 48.8% | -0.6 | 0.831 | 248 | |
| Single wall | 47.8% | -1.6 | 0.629 | 207 | |
| Half fence | 46.9% | -2.5 | 0.410 | 245 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jeffry's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 1.76 on 9 df, p 0.995
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 49.5%214 | +0.60.906 | +2.60.579 | -0.50.919 | +0.70.874 | +1.70.726 | -2.60.675 | +0.50.910 | -0.90.851 | -2.00.666 |
| Breakable full fence | -0.60.906 | 49.0%245 | +2.00.651 | -1.00.819 | +0.20.966 | +1.10.807 | -3.10.604 | -0.00.996 | -1.40.752 | -2.50.568 |
| Half fence | -2.60.579 | -2.00.651 | 46.9%245 | -3.10.492 | -1.90.681 | -0.90.851 | -5.20.392 | -2.10.645 | -3.50.444 | -4.60.302 |
| Breakable half fence | +0.50.919 | +1.00.819 | +3.10.492 | 50.0%258 | +1.20.786 | +2.20.641 | -2.10.724 | +1.00.822 | -0.40.926 | -1.50.729 |
| Low fence | -0.70.874 | -0.20.966 | +1.90.681 | -1.20.786 | 48.8%248 | +1.00.838 | -3.30.582 | -0.20.962 | -1.60.719 | -2.70.538 |
| Single wall | -1.70.726 | -1.10.807 | +0.90.851 | -2.20.641 | -1.00.838 | 47.8%207 | -4.30.489 | -1.20.802 | -2.60.585 | -3.70.427 |
| Fence and open | +2.60.675 | +3.10.604 | +5.20.392 | +2.10.724 | +3.30.582 | +4.30.489 | 52.1%94 | +3.10.605 | +1.70.779 | +0.60.919 |
| Open | -0.50.910 | +0.00.996 | +2.10.645 | -1.00.822 | +0.20.962 | +1.20.802 | -3.10.605 | 49.0%251 | -1.40.754 | -2.50.569 |
| Rectangle | +0.90.851 | +1.40.752 | +3.50.444 | +0.40.926 | +1.60.719 | +2.60.585 | -1.70.779 | +1.40.754 | 50.4%238 | -1.10.806 |
| Octagon | +2.00.666 | +2.50.568 | +4.60.302 | +1.50.729 | +2.70.538 | +3.70.427 | -0.60.919 | +2.50.569 | +1.10.806 | 51.5%264 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted339
Win rate35.4%
Widest swing-13.2 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jeffry's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 48.0% | +12.6 | 0.171 | 25 · | |
| Rectangle | 45.5% | +10.1 | 0.135 | 44 · | |
| Half fence | 42.3% | +6.9 | 0.443 | 26 · | |
| Low fence | 39.4% | +4.0 | 0.613 | 33 · | |
| Fence and open | 38.1% | +2.7 | 0.790 | 21 · | |
| Open | 37.9% | +2.5 | 0.765 | 29 · | |
| Single wall | 30.9% | -4.5 | 0.520 | 42 · | |
| Octagon | 30.6% | -4.8 | 0.520 | 36 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 27.3% | -8.1 | 0.304 | 33 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 22.2% | -13.2 | 0.080 | 36 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jeffry's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 8.98 on 9 df, p 0.440
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 48.0%25 | +20.70.104 | +5.70.683 | +25.80.035 | +8.60.512 | +17.10.163 | +9.90.500 | +10.10.456 | +2.50.839 | +17.40.167 |
| Breakable full fence | -20.70.104 | 27.3%33 | -15.00.226 | +5.00.627 | -12.10.296 | -3.70.728 | -10.80.404 | -10.70.370 | -18.20.103 | -3.30.764 |
| Half fence | -5.70.683 | +15.00.226 | 42.3%26 | +20.10.090 | +2.90.821 | +11.40.341 | +4.20.770 | +4.40.741 | -3.10.798 | +11.80.340 |
| Breakable half fence | -25.80.035 | -5.00.627 | -20.10.090 | 22.2%36 | -17.20.121 | -8.70.386 | -15.90.198 | -15.70.166 | -23.20.030 | -8.30.422 |
| Low fence | -8.60.512 | +12.10.296 | -2.90.821 | +17.20.121 | 39.4%33 | +8.40.446 | +1.30.924 | +1.50.906 | -6.10.595 | +8.80.441 |
| Single wall | -17.10.163 | +3.70.728 | -11.40.341 | +8.70.386 | -8.40.446 | 30.9%42 | -7.20.571 | -7.00.541 | -14.50.167 | +0.40.970 |
| Fence and open | -9.90.500 | +10.80.404 | -4.20.770 | +15.90.198 | -1.30.924 | +7.20.571 | 38.1%21 | +0.20.991 | -7.30.575 | +7.50.560 |
| Open | -10.10.456 | +10.70.370 | -4.40.741 | +15.70.166 | -1.50.906 | +7.00.541 | -0.20.991 | 37.9%29 | -7.50.525 | +7.40.532 |
| Rectangle | -2.50.839 | +18.20.103 | +3.10.798 | +23.20.030 | +6.10.595 | +14.50.167 | +7.30.575 | +7.50.525 | 45.5%44 | +14.90.174 |
| Octagon | -17.40.167 | +3.30.764 | -11.80.340 | +8.30.422 | -8.80.441 | -0.40.970 | -7.50.560 | -7.40.532 | -14.90.174 | 30.6%36 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.