Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Jeffry vs Kage
Matches counted2,856
Win rate48.7%
Widest swing6.2 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jeffry's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low fence | 54.9% | +6.2 | 0.033 | 264 | |
| Octagon | 50.2% | +1.5 | 0.584 | 299 | |
| Half fence | 50.0% | +1.3 | 0.642 | 276 | |
| Rectangle | 49.0% | +0.3 | 0.920 | 286 | |
| Open | 47.9% | -0.8 | 0.767 | 305 | |
| Fence and open | 47.7% | -1.0 | 0.814 | 128 | |
| Breakable half fence | 46.7% | -2.0 | 0.466 | 302 | |
| Breakable full fence | 46.4% | -2.2 | 0.430 | 280 | |
| Full fence | 46.3% | -2.4 | 0.383 | 294 | |
| Single wall | 45.5% | -3.2 | 0.276 | 266 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jeffry's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 7.48 on 9 df, p 0.587
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 46.3%294 | -0.20.967 | -3.70.372 | -0.40.916 | -8.70.041 | +0.80.855 | -1.40.791 | -1.60.693 | -2.70.516 | -3.90.341 |
| Breakable full fence | +0.20.967 | 46.4%280 | -3.60.399 | -0.30.950 | -8.50.048 | +0.90.826 | -1.20.818 | -1.40.727 | -2.50.548 | -3.70.368 |
| Half fence | +3.70.372 | +3.60.399 | 50.0%276 | +3.30.426 | -4.90.252 | +4.50.293 | +2.30.661 | +2.10.608 | +1.10.804 | -0.20.968 |
| Breakable half fence | +0.40.916 | +0.30.950 | -3.30.426 | 46.7%302 | -8.20.051 | +1.20.775 | -1.00.854 | -1.20.771 | -2.30.583 | -3.50.394 |
| Low fence | +8.70.041 | +8.50.048 | +4.90.252 | +8.20.051 | 54.9%264 | +9.40.030 | +7.30.177 | +7.00.093 | +6.00.161 | +4.80.259 |
| Single wall | -0.80.855 | -0.90.826 | -4.50.293 | -1.20.775 | -9.40.030 | 45.5%266 | -2.20.686 | -2.40.570 | -3.50.416 | -4.70.267 |
| Fence and open | +1.40.791 | +1.20.818 | -2.30.661 | +1.00.854 | -7.30.177 | +2.20.686 | 47.7%128 | -0.20.968 | -1.30.808 | -2.50.634 |
| Open | +1.60.693 | +1.40.727 | -2.10.608 | +1.20.771 | -7.00.093 | +2.40.570 | +0.20.968 | 47.9%305 | -1.10.792 | -2.30.572 |
| Rectangle | +2.70.516 | +2.50.548 | -1.10.804 | +2.30.583 | -6.00.161 | +3.50.416 | +1.30.808 | +1.10.792 | 49.0%286 | -1.20.769 |
| Octagon | +3.90.341 | +3.70.368 | +0.20.968 | +3.50.394 | -4.80.259 | +4.70.267 | +2.50.634 | +2.30.572 | +1.20.769 | 50.2%299 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted2,569
Win rate48.8%
Widest swing5.6 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jeffry's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low fence | 54.4% | +5.6 | 0.068 | 239 | |
| Octagon | 50.2% | +1.4 | 0.621 | 275 | |
| Half fence | 50.0% | +1.2 | 0.690 | 240 | |
| Rectangle | 49.6% | +0.8 | 0.771 | 264 | |
| Breakable full fence | 48.4% | -0.3 | 0.907 | 254 | |
| Full fence | 47.0% | -1.8 | 0.543 | 268 | |
| Breakable half fence | 46.3% | -2.5 | 0.386 | 268 | |
| Open | 46.2% | -2.5 | 0.369 | 279 | |
| Single wall | 45.9% | -2.9 | 0.358 | 231 | |
| Fence and open | 45.7% | -3.1 | 0.496 | 116 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jeffry's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 6.33 on 9 df, p 0.707
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 47.0%268 | -1.40.747 | -3.00.502 | +0.70.863 | -7.40.097 | +1.10.801 | +1.30.811 | +0.80.855 | -2.60.548 | -3.20.460 |
| Breakable full fence | +1.40.747 | 48.4%254 | -1.60.726 | +2.20.622 | -6.00.185 | +2.50.576 | +2.70.625 | +2.20.613 | -1.20.785 | -1.80.686 |
| Half fence | +3.00.502 | +1.60.726 | 50.0%240 | +3.70.401 | -4.40.336 | +4.10.372 | +4.30.446 | +3.80.392 | +0.40.932 | -0.20.967 |
| Breakable half fence | -0.70.863 | -2.20.622 | -3.70.401 | 46.3%268 | -8.10.068 | +0.40.932 | +0.60.917 | +0.00.994 | -3.40.439 | -3.90.362 |
| Low fence | +7.40.097 | +6.00.185 | +4.40.336 | +8.10.068 | 54.4%239 | +8.50.065 | +8.70.124 | +8.20.064 | +4.80.285 | +4.20.340 |
| Single wall | -1.10.801 | -2.50.576 | -4.10.372 | -0.40.932 | -8.50.065 | 45.9%231 | +0.20.972 | -0.30.937 | -3.70.407 | -4.30.336 |
| Fence and open | -1.30.811 | -2.70.625 | -4.30.446 | -0.60.917 | -8.70.124 | -0.20.972 | 45.7%116 | -0.60.921 | -3.90.480 | -4.50.417 |
| Open | -0.80.855 | -2.20.613 | -3.80.392 | -0.00.994 | -8.20.064 | +0.30.937 | +0.60.921 | 46.2%279 | -3.40.430 | -3.90.353 |
| Rectangle | +2.60.548 | +1.20.785 | -0.40.932 | +3.40.439 | -4.80.285 | +3.70.407 | +3.90.480 | +3.40.430 | 49.6%264 | -0.60.896 |
| Octagon | +3.20.460 | +1.80.686 | +0.20.967 | +3.90.362 | -4.20.340 | +4.30.336 | +4.50.417 | +3.90.353 | +0.60.896 | 50.2%275 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted287
Win rate47.7%
Widest swing-20.8 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jeffry's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 66.7% | +18.9 | 0.180 | 12 · | |
| Open | 65.4% | +17.6 | 0.059 | 26 · | |
| Low fence | 60.0% | +12.3 | 0.199 | 25 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 50.0% | +2.3 | 0.778 | 34 · | |
| Half fence | 50.0% | +2.3 | 0.771 | 36 · | |
| Octagon | 50.0% | +2.3 | 0.817 | 24 · | |
| Single wall | 42.9% | -4.9 | 0.538 | 35 · | |
| Rectangle | 40.9% | -6.8 | 0.505 | 22 · | |
| Full fence | 38.5% | -9.3 | 0.321 | 26 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 26.9% | -20.8 | 0.026 | 26 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jeffry's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 12.80 on 9 df, p 0.172
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 38.5%26 | +11.50.375 | -11.50.368 | -11.50.373 | -21.50.124 | -4.40.730 | -28.20.106 | -26.90.052 | -2.50.863 | -11.50.412 |
| Breakable full fence | -11.50.375 | 26.9%26 | -23.10.068 | -23.10.071 | -33.10.017 | -15.90.200 | -39.80.020 | -38.50.005 | -14.00.306 | -23.10.093 |
| Half fence | +11.50.368 | +23.10.068 | 50.0%36 | +0.01.000 | -10.00.441 | +7.10.546 | -16.70.316 | -15.40.228 | +9.10.501 | +0.01.000 |
| Breakable half fence | +11.50.373 | +23.10.071 | -0.01.000 | 50.0%34 | -10.00.446 | +7.10.552 | -16.70.319 | -15.40.233 | +9.10.505 | +0.01.000 |
| Low fence | +21.50.124 | +33.10.017 | +10.00.441 | +10.00.446 | 60.0%25 | +17.10.190 | -6.70.695 | -5.40.691 | +19.10.191 | +10.00.482 |
| Single wall | +4.40.730 | +15.90.200 | -7.10.546 | -7.10.552 | -17.10.190 | 42.9%35 | -23.80.154 | -22.50.081 | +1.90.885 | -7.10.589 |
| Fence and open | +28.20.106 | +39.80.020 | +16.70.316 | +16.70.319 | +6.70.695 | +23.80.154 | 66.7%12 | +1.30.938 | +25.80.151 | +16.70.343 |
| Open | +26.90.052 | +38.50.005 | +15.40.228 | +15.40.233 | +5.40.691 | +22.50.081 | -1.30.938 | 65.4%26 | +24.50.090 | +15.40.271 |
| Rectangle | +2.50.863 | +14.00.306 | -9.10.501 | -9.10.505 | -19.10.191 | -1.90.885 | -25.80.151 | -24.50.090 | 40.9%22 | -9.10.536 |
| Octagon | +11.50.412 | +23.10.093 | -0.01.000 | -0.01.000 | -10.00.482 | +7.10.589 | -16.70.343 | -15.40.271 | +9.10.536 | 50.0%24 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.