Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Jean vs Wolf
Matches counted2,625
Win rate53.6%
Widest swing-7.8 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jean's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 60.3% | +6.7 | 0.022 | 262 | |
| Single wall | 57.3% | +3.7 | 0.225 | 248 | |
| Breakable half fence | 57.2% | +3.6 | 0.210 | 271 | |
| Half fence | 54.9% | +1.3 | 0.661 | 255 | |
| Rectangle | 54.0% | +0.5 | 0.877 | 259 | |
| Breakable full fence | 52.4% | -1.2 | 0.646 | 298 | |
| Low fence | 52.0% | -1.6 | 0.584 | 271 | |
| Octagon | 51.9% | -1.7 | 0.577 | 239 | |
| Fence and open | 47.9% | -5.7 | 0.161 | 140 | |
| Open | 45.8% | -7.8 | 0.009 | 249 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jean's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 16.39 on 9 df, p 0.059
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 60.3%262 | +8.00.058 | +5.40.214 | +3.10.466 | +8.30.054 | +3.00.485 | +12.40.017 | +14.50.001 | +6.30.149 | +8.40.058 |
| Breakable full fence | -8.00.058 | 52.4%298 | -2.50.548 | -4.80.246 | +0.30.939 | -4.90.251 | +4.50.381 | +6.60.126 | -1.70.688 | +0.50.914 |
| Half fence | -5.40.214 | +2.50.548 | 54.9%255 | -2.30.596 | +2.90.509 | -2.40.595 | +7.00.180 | +9.10.041 | +0.80.847 | +3.00.501 |
| Breakable half fence | -3.10.466 | +4.80.246 | +2.30.596 | 57.2%271 | +5.20.227 | -0.10.989 | +9.30.072 | +11.40.009 | +3.10.467 | +5.30.229 |
| Low fence | -8.30.054 | -0.30.939 | -2.90.509 | -5.20.227 | 52.0%271 | -5.20.232 | +4.20.423 | +6.20.155 | -2.00.641 | +0.10.974 |
| Single wall | -3.00.485 | +4.90.251 | +2.40.595 | +0.10.989 | +5.20.232 | 57.3%248 | +9.40.074 | +11.50.010 | +3.20.468 | +5.40.234 |
| Fence and open | -12.40.017 | -4.50.381 | -7.00.180 | -9.30.072 | -4.20.423 | -9.40.074 | 47.9%140 | +2.10.694 | -6.20.237 | -4.00.449 |
| Open | -14.50.001 | -6.60.126 | -9.10.041 | -11.40.009 | -6.20.155 | -11.50.010 | -2.10.694 | 45.8%249 | -8.30.062 | -6.10.178 |
| Rectangle | -6.30.149 | +1.70.688 | -0.80.847 | -3.10.467 | +2.00.641 | -3.20.468 | +6.20.237 | +8.30.062 | 54.0%259 | +2.20.628 |
| Octagon | -8.40.058 | -0.50.914 | -3.00.501 | -5.30.229 | -0.10.974 | -5.40.234 | +4.00.449 | +6.10.178 | -2.20.628 | 51.9%239 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted2,522
Win rate53.8%
Widest swing-7.8 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jean's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 60.7% | +6.9 | 0.019 | 257 | |
| Single wall | 58.4% | +4.6 | 0.132 | 238 | |
| Breakable half fence | 57.4% | +3.6 | 0.210 | 263 | |
| Half fence | 55.2% | +1.4 | 0.632 | 250 | |
| Rectangle | 54.2% | +0.4 | 0.888 | 238 | |
| Octagon | 52.2% | -1.6 | 0.611 | 230 | |
| Breakable full fence | 51.9% | -1.8 | 0.509 | 285 | |
| Low fence | 51.7% | -2.0 | 0.485 | 261 | |
| Fence and open | 47.8% | -6.0 | 0.151 | 136 | |
| Open | 46.0% | -7.8 | 0.012 | 237 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jean's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 17.43 on 9 df, p 0.042
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 60.7%257 | +8.80.040 | +5.50.210 | +3.30.446 | +9.00.040 | +2.30.603 | +12.90.014 | +14.70.001 | +6.50.144 | +8.50.058 |
| Breakable full fence | -8.80.040 | 51.9%285 | -3.30.449 | -5.50.198 | +0.20.962 | -6.50.138 | +4.10.427 | +5.90.177 | -2.30.604 | -0.20.956 |
| Half fence | -5.50.210 | +3.30.449 | 55.2%250 | -2.20.613 | +3.50.431 | -3.20.475 | +7.40.164 | +9.20.042 | +1.00.825 | +3.00.507 |
| Breakable half fence | -3.30.446 | +5.50.198 | +2.20.613 | 57.4%263 | +5.70.191 | -1.00.823 | +9.60.068 | +11.40.011 | +3.20.470 | +5.20.243 |
| Low fence | -9.00.040 | -0.20.962 | -3.50.431 | -5.70.191 | 51.7%261 | -6.70.134 | +3.90.457 | +5.70.201 | -2.50.580 | -0.50.921 |
| Single wall | -2.30.603 | +6.50.138 | +3.20.475 | +1.00.823 | +6.70.134 | 58.4%238 | +10.60.047 | +12.40.007 | +4.20.355 | +6.20.175 |
| Fence and open | -12.90.014 | -4.10.427 | -7.40.164 | -9.60.068 | -3.90.457 | -10.60.047 | 47.8%136 | +1.80.737 | -6.40.233 | -4.40.418 |
| Open | -14.70.001 | -5.90.177 | -9.20.042 | -11.40.011 | -5.70.201 | -12.40.007 | -1.80.737 | 46.0%237 | -8.20.074 | -6.20.182 |
| Rectangle | -6.50.144 | +2.30.604 | -1.00.825 | -3.20.470 | +2.50.580 | -4.20.355 | +6.40.233 | +8.20.074 | 54.2%238 | +2.00.660 |
| Octagon | -8.50.058 | +0.20.956 | -3.00.507 | -5.20.243 | +0.50.921 | -6.20.175 | +4.40.418 | +6.20.182 | -2.00.660 | 52.2%230 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted103
Win rate49.5%
Widest swing-19.5 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jean's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakable full fence | 61.5% | +12.0 | 0.354 | 13 · | |
| Low fence | 60.0% | +10.5 | 0.485 | 10 · | |
| Rectangle | 52.4% | +2.9 | 0.768 | 21 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 50.0% | +0.5 | 0.977 | 8 · | |
| Fence and open | 50.0% | +0.5 | 0.984 | 4 · | |
| Octagon | 44.4% | -5.1 | 0.750 | 9 · | |
| Open | 41.7% | -7.8 | 0.563 | 12 · | |
| Full fence | 40.0% | -9.5 | 0.663 | 5 · | |
| Half fence | 40.0% | -9.5 | 0.663 | 5 · | |
| Single wall | 30.0% | -19.5 | 0.194 | 10 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jean's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 3.49 on 9 df, p 0.941
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 40.0%5 | -21.50.410 | +0.01.000 | -10.00.725 | -20.00.464 | +10.00.699 | -10.00.764 | -1.70.949 | -12.40.619 | -4.40.872 |
| Breakable full fence | +21.50.410 | 61.5%13 | +21.50.410 | +11.50.604 | +1.50.940 | +31.50.133 | +11.50.682 | +19.90.320 | +9.20.601 | +17.10.429 |
| Half fence | -0.01.000 | -21.50.410 | 40.0%5 | -10.00.725 | -20.00.464 | +10.00.699 | -10.00.764 | -1.70.949 | -12.40.619 | -4.40.872 |
| Breakable half fence | +10.00.725 | -11.50.604 | +10.00.725 | 50.0%8 | -10.00.671 | +20.00.387 | +0.01.000 | +8.30.714 | -2.40.909 | +5.60.819 |
| Low fence | +20.00.464 | -1.50.940 | +20.00.464 | +10.00.671 | 60.0%10 | +30.00.178 | +10.00.733 | +18.30.392 | +7.60.690 | +15.60.498 |
| Single wall | -10.00.699 | -31.50.133 | -10.00.699 | -20.00.387 | -30.00.178 | 30.0%10 | -20.00.480 | -11.70.571 | -22.40.242 | -14.40.515 |
| Fence and open | +10.00.764 | -11.50.682 | +10.00.764 | -0.01.000 | -10.00.733 | +20.00.480 | 50.0%4 | +8.30.771 | -2.40.930 | +5.60.853 |
| Open | +1.70.949 | -19.90.320 | +1.70.949 | -8.30.714 | -18.30.392 | +11.70.571 | -8.30.771 | 41.7%12 | -10.70.554 | -2.80.899 |
| Rectangle | +12.40.619 | -9.20.601 | +12.40.619 | +2.40.909 | -7.60.690 | +22.40.242 | +2.40.930 | +10.70.554 | 52.4%21 | +7.90.690 |
| Octagon | +4.40.872 | -17.10.429 | +4.40.872 | -5.60.819 | -15.60.498 | +14.40.515 | -5.60.853 | +2.80.899 | -7.90.690 | 44.4%9 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.