Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Jean vs Vanessa
Matches counted1,641
Win rate50.8%
Widest swing-5.0 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jean's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Octagon | 54.7% | +3.9 | 0.298 | 161 | |
| Rectangle | 53.6% | +2.9 | 0.457 | 151 | |
| Half fence | 52.3% | +1.6 | 0.665 | 172 | |
| Breakable half fence | 51.5% | +0.8 | 0.833 | 161 | |
| Single wall | 50.7% | -0.1 | 0.987 | 144 | |
| Open | 50.3% | -0.4 | 0.907 | 157 | |
| Low fence | 49.7% | -1.0 | 0.765 | 187 | |
| Breakable full fence | 49.1% | -1.6 | 0.651 | 173 | |
| Fence and open | 46.8% | -4.0 | 0.522 | 62 · | |
| Full fence | 45.7% | -5.0 | 0.158 | 175 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jean's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 4.13 on 9 df, p 0.903
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 45.7%175 | -3.40.523 | -6.60.218 | -5.80.285 | -4.00.444 | -5.00.376 | -1.10.886 | -4.60.402 | -7.90.153 | -8.90.101 |
| Breakable full fence | +3.40.523 | 49.1%173 | -3.20.553 | -2.40.659 | -0.60.909 | -1.60.782 | +2.40.750 | -1.20.830 | -4.50.418 | -5.50.313 |
| Half fence | +6.60.218 | +3.20.553 | 52.3%172 | +0.80.888 | +2.60.623 | +1.60.773 | +5.60.453 | +2.00.716 | -1.30.813 | -2.30.670 |
| Breakable half fence | +5.80.285 | +2.40.659 | -0.80.888 | 51.5%161 | +1.80.735 | +0.90.881 | +4.80.523 | +1.20.826 | -2.10.712 | -3.10.577 |
| Low fence | +4.00.444 | +0.60.909 | -2.60.623 | -1.80.735 | 49.7%187 | -1.00.862 | +3.00.686 | -0.60.914 | -3.90.475 | -4.90.359 |
| Single wall | +5.00.376 | +1.60.782 | -1.60.773 | -0.90.881 | +1.00.862 | 50.7%144 | +3.90.606 | +0.40.948 | -3.00.612 | -4.00.489 |
| Fence and open | +1.10.886 | -2.40.750 | -5.60.453 | -4.80.523 | -3.00.686 | -3.90.606 | 46.8%62 | -3.50.636 | -6.90.362 | -7.90.291 |
| Open | +4.60.402 | +1.20.830 | -2.00.716 | -1.20.826 | +0.60.914 | -0.40.948 | +3.50.636 | 50.3%157 | -3.30.559 | -4.30.438 |
| Rectangle | +7.90.153 | +4.50.418 | +1.30.813 | +2.10.712 | +3.90.475 | +3.00.612 | +6.90.362 | +3.30.559 | 53.6%151 | -1.00.857 |
| Octagon | +8.90.101 | +5.50.313 | +2.30.670 | +3.10.577 | +4.90.359 | +4.00.489 | +7.90.291 | +4.30.438 | +1.00.857 | 54.7%161 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted1,487
Win rate50.0%
Widest swing4.1 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jean's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Octagon | 54.2% | +4.1 | 0.297 | 144 | |
| Rectangle | 51.8% | +1.8 | 0.660 | 137 | |
| Breakable half fence | 51.0% | +1.0 | 0.801 | 147 | |
| Half fence | 50.7% | +0.6 | 0.870 | 150 | |
| Single wall | 50.4% | +0.3 | 0.934 | 133 | |
| Open | 50.0% | -0.0 | 0.993 | 138 | |
| Low fence | 48.0% | -2.1 | 0.563 | 171 | |
| Breakable full fence | 47.7% | -2.3 | 0.547 | 155 | |
| Fence and open | 46.8% | -3.3 | 0.600 | 62 · | |
| Full fence | 46.2% | -3.8 | 0.311 | 160 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jean's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 3.00 on 9 df, p 0.964
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 46.2%160 | -1.50.791 | -4.40.437 | -4.80.403 | -1.70.756 | -4.10.482 | -0.50.944 | -3.80.518 | -5.60.338 | -7.90.168 |
| Breakable full fence | +1.50.791 | 47.7%155 | -2.90.610 | -3.30.569 | -0.20.970 | -2.60.656 | +1.00.897 | -2.30.700 | -4.10.486 | -6.40.267 |
| Half fence | +4.40.437 | +2.90.610 | 50.7%150 | -0.30.951 | +2.70.628 | +0.30.961 | +3.90.606 | +0.70.910 | -1.10.845 | -3.50.548 |
| Breakable half fence | +4.80.403 | +3.30.569 | +0.30.951 | 51.0%147 | +3.10.585 | +0.60.914 | +4.20.575 | +1.00.863 | -0.80.892 | -3.10.591 |
| Low fence | +1.70.756 | +0.20.970 | -2.70.628 | -3.10.585 | 48.0%171 | -2.40.675 | +1.20.873 | -2.00.720 | -3.90.499 | -6.20.272 |
| Single wall | +4.10.482 | +2.60.656 | -0.30.961 | -0.60.914 | +2.40.675 | 50.4%133 | +3.60.639 | +0.40.951 | -1.40.812 | -3.80.528 |
| Fence and open | +0.50.944 | -1.00.897 | -3.90.606 | -4.20.575 | -1.20.873 | -3.60.639 | 46.8%62 | -3.20.673 | -5.00.509 | -7.40.330 |
| Open | +3.80.518 | +2.30.700 | -0.70.910 | -1.00.863 | +2.00.720 | -0.40.951 | +3.20.673 | 50.0%138 | -1.80.762 | -4.20.484 |
| Rectangle | +5.60.338 | +4.10.486 | +1.10.845 | +0.80.892 | +3.90.499 | +1.40.812 | +5.00.509 | +1.80.762 | 51.8%137 | -2.40.694 |
| Octagon | +7.90.168 | +6.40.267 | +3.50.548 | +3.10.591 | +6.20.272 | +3.80.528 | +7.40.330 | +4.20.484 | +2.40.694 | 54.2%144 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted154
Win rate57.8%
Widest swing-17.8 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jean's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rectangle | 71.4% | +13.6 | 0.279 | 14 · | |
| Low fence | 68.8% | +11.0 | 0.348 | 16 · | |
| Half fence | 63.6% | +5.8 | 0.549 | 22 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 61.1% | +3.3 | 0.762 | 18 · | |
| Octagon | 58.8% | +1.0 | 0.927 | 17 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 57.1% | -0.7 | 0.959 | 14 · | |
| Single wall | 54.5% | -3.2 | 0.821 | 11 · | |
| Open | 52.6% | -5.2 | 0.627 | 19 · | |
| Full fence | 40.0% | -17.8 | 0.142 | 15 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jean's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 4.42 on 8 df, p 0.818
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 40.0%15 | -21.10.227 | -23.60.157 | -17.10.356 | -28.80.108 | -14.60.462 | -12.60.464 | -31.40.089 | -18.80.288 |
| Breakable full fence | +21.10.227 | 61.1%18 | -2.50.870 | +4.00.821 | -7.60.642 | +6.60.728 | +8.50.603 | -10.30.542 | +2.30.890 |
| Half fence | +23.60.157 | +2.50.870 | 63.6%22 | +6.50.697 | -5.10.743 | +9.10.614 | +11.00.476 | -7.80.629 | +4.80.759 |
| Breakable half fence | +17.10.356 | -4.00.821 | -6.50.697 | 57.1%14 | -11.60.510 | +2.60.897 | +4.50.797 | -14.30.430 | -1.70.925 |
| Low fence | +28.80.108 | +7.60.642 | +5.10.743 | +11.60.510 | 68.8%16 | +14.20.453 | +16.10.332 | -2.70.873 | +9.90.554 |
| Single wall | +14.60.462 | -6.60.728 | -9.10.614 | -2.60.897 | -14.20.453 | 54.5%11 | +1.90.919 | -16.90.383 | -4.30.823 |
| Open | +12.60.464 | -8.50.603 | -11.00.476 | -4.50.797 | -16.10.332 | -1.90.919 | 52.6%19 | -18.80.275 | -6.20.709 |
| Rectangle | +31.40.089 | +10.30.542 | +7.80.629 | +14.30.430 | +2.70.873 | +16.90.383 | +18.80.275 | 71.4%14 | +12.60.465 |
| Octagon | +18.80.288 | -2.30.890 | -4.80.759 | +1.70.925 | -9.90.554 | +4.30.823 | +6.20.709 | -12.60.465 | 58.8%17 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.