Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Jean vs Shun
Matches counted1,694
Win rate50.4%
Widest swing-5.9 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jean's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Octagon | 53.6% | +3.2 | 0.341 | 192 | |
| Low fence | 52.6% | +2.2 | 0.544 | 173 | |
| Rectangle | 52.3% | +1.9 | 0.599 | 174 | |
| Breakable half fence | 51.5% | +1.0 | 0.775 | 173 | |
| Full fence | 51.0% | +0.6 | 0.885 | 155 | |
| Fence and open | 50.0% | -0.4 | 0.937 | 86 | |
| Half fence | 50.0% | -0.4 | 0.913 | 158 | |
| Open | 49.7% | -0.7 | 0.847 | 163 | |
| Breakable full fence | 48.0% | -2.4 | 0.503 | 179 | |
| Single wall | 44.5% | -5.9 | 0.123 | 155 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jean's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 4.08 on 9 df, p 0.906
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 51.0%155 | +2.90.594 | +1.00.864 | -0.50.931 | -1.60.768 | +6.50.256 | +1.00.886 | +1.30.820 | -1.30.809 | -2.70.619 |
| Breakable full fence | -2.90.594 | 48.0%179 | -2.00.720 | -3.40.524 | -4.60.393 | +3.50.519 | -2.00.766 | -1.60.761 | -4.30.424 | -5.60.281 |
| Half fence | -1.00.864 | +2.00.720 | 50.0%158 | -1.40.793 | -2.60.636 | +5.50.331 | +0.01.000 | +0.30.956 | -2.30.676 | -3.60.497 |
| Breakable half fence | +0.50.931 | +3.40.524 | +1.40.793 | 51.5%173 | -1.10.830 | +6.90.210 | +1.40.827 | +1.80.748 | -0.80.874 | -2.20.674 |
| Low fence | +1.60.768 | +4.60.393 | +2.60.636 | +1.10.830 | 52.6%173 | +8.10.144 | +2.60.693 | +2.90.594 | +0.30.955 | -1.10.842 |
| Single wall | -6.50.256 | -3.50.519 | -5.50.331 | -6.90.210 | -8.10.144 | 44.5%155 | -5.50.414 | -5.20.355 | -7.80.159 | -9.10.091 |
| Fence and open | -1.00.886 | +2.00.766 | -0.01.000 | -1.40.827 | -2.60.693 | +5.50.414 | 50.0%86 | +0.30.963 | -2.30.727 | -3.60.574 |
| Open | -1.30.820 | +1.60.761 | -0.30.956 | -1.80.748 | -2.90.594 | +5.20.355 | -0.30.963 | 49.7%163 | -2.60.633 | -4.00.458 |
| Rectangle | +1.30.809 | +4.30.424 | +2.30.676 | +0.80.874 | -0.30.955 | +7.80.159 | +2.30.727 | +2.60.633 | 52.3%174 | -1.40.797 |
| Octagon | +2.70.619 | +5.60.281 | +3.60.497 | +2.20.674 | +1.10.842 | +9.10.091 | +3.60.574 | +4.00.458 | +1.40.797 | 53.6%192 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted1,595
Win rate50.7%
Widest swing-6.8 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jean's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Octagon | 54.0% | +3.4 | 0.326 | 185 | |
| Low fence | 53.9% | +3.2 | 0.381 | 169 | |
| Full fence | 52.4% | +1.8 | 0.657 | 145 | |
| Rectangle | 52.1% | +1.5 | 0.691 | 165 | |
| Fence and open | 51.9% | +1.2 | 0.821 | 79 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 51.9% | +1.2 | 0.746 | 160 | |
| Half fence | 50.7% | +0.0 | 0.998 | 150 | |
| Open | 49.4% | -1.3 | 0.733 | 156 | |
| Breakable full fence | 46.3% | -4.3 | 0.243 | 164 | |
| Single wall | 43.8% | -6.8 | 0.084 | 146 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jean's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 6.05 on 9 df, p 0.735
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 52.4%145 | +6.10.287 | +1.70.764 | +0.50.925 | -1.40.800 | +8.60.143 | +0.50.941 | +3.00.596 | +0.30.959 | -1.60.767 |
| Breakable full fence | -6.10.287 | 46.3%164 | -4.30.444 | -5.50.319 | -7.50.171 | +2.50.658 | -5.60.417 | -3.00.589 | -5.80.294 | -7.70.150 |
| Half fence | -1.70.764 | +4.30.444 | 50.7%150 | -1.20.832 | -3.20.570 | +6.80.239 | -1.20.859 | +1.30.819 | -1.40.796 | -3.40.537 |
| Breakable half fence | -0.50.925 | +5.50.319 | +1.20.832 | 51.9%160 | -2.00.720 | +8.00.160 | -0.00.997 | +2.50.655 | -0.20.965 | -2.20.686 |
| Low fence | +1.40.800 | +7.50.171 | +3.20.570 | +2.00.720 | 53.9%169 | +10.00.076 | +1.90.775 | +4.50.419 | +1.70.752 | -0.20.969 |
| Single wall | -8.60.143 | -2.50.658 | -6.80.239 | -8.00.160 | -10.00.076 | 43.8%146 | -8.10.247 | -5.50.336 | -8.30.144 | -10.20.065 |
| Fence and open | -0.50.941 | +5.60.417 | +1.20.859 | +0.00.997 | -1.90.775 | +8.10.247 | 51.9%79 | +2.50.713 | -0.20.974 | -2.10.748 |
| Open | -3.00.596 | +3.00.589 | -1.30.819 | -2.50.655 | -4.50.419 | +5.50.336 | -2.50.713 | 49.4%156 | -2.80.621 | -4.70.387 |
| Rectangle | -0.30.959 | +5.80.294 | +1.40.796 | +0.20.965 | -1.70.752 | +8.30.144 | +0.20.974 | +2.80.621 | 52.1%165 | -1.90.718 |
| Octagon | +1.60.767 | +7.70.150 | +3.40.537 | +2.20.686 | +0.20.969 | +10.20.065 | +2.10.748 | +4.70.387 | +1.90.718 | 54.0%185 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted99
Win rate46.5%
Widest swing-46.5 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jean's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakable full fence | 66.7% | +20.2 | 0.089 | 15 · | |
| Open | 57.1% | +10.7 | 0.557 | 7 · | |
| Rectangle | 55.6% | +9.1 | 0.566 | 9 · | |
| Single wall | 55.6% | +9.1 | 0.566 | 9 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 46.1% | -0.3 | 0.981 | 13 · | |
| Octagon | 42.9% | -3.6 | 0.843 | 7 · | |
| Half fence | 37.5% | -9.0 | 0.596 | 8 · | |
| Full fence | 30.0% | -16.5 | 0.271 | 10 · | |
| Fence and open | 28.6% | -17.9 | 0.325 | 7 · | |
| Low fence | 0.0% | -46.5 | 0.057 | 4 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jean's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 9.14 on 9 df, p 0.424
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 30.0%10 | -36.70.072 | -7.50.737 | -16.10.431 | +30.00.217 | -25.60.260 | +1.40.949 | -27.10.263 | -25.60.260 | -12.90.585 |
| Breakable full fence | +36.70.072 | 66.7%15 | +29.20.179 | +20.50.274 | +66.70.018 | +11.10.586 | +38.10.095 | +9.50.665 | +11.10.586 | +23.80.290 |
| Half fence | +7.50.737 | -29.20.179 | 37.5%8 | -8.70.697 | +37.50.157 | -18.10.457 | +8.90.714 | -19.60.447 | -18.10.457 | -5.40.833 |
| Breakable half fence | +16.10.431 | -20.50.274 | +8.70.697 | 46.1%13 | +46.10.091 | -9.40.665 | +17.60.444 | -11.00.639 | -9.40.665 | +3.30.888 |
| Low fence | -30.00.217 | -66.70.018 | -37.50.157 | -46.10.091 | 0.0%4 | -55.60.057 | -28.60.237 | -57.10.058 | -55.60.057 | -42.90.125 |
| Single wall | +25.60.260 | -11.10.586 | +18.10.457 | +9.40.665 | +55.60.057 | 55.6%9 | +27.00.280 | -1.60.949 | +0.01.000 | +12.70.614 |
| Fence and open | -1.40.949 | -38.10.095 | -8.90.714 | -17.60.444 | +28.60.237 | -27.00.280 | 28.6%7 | -28.60.280 | -27.00.280 | -14.30.577 |
| Open | +27.10.263 | -9.50.665 | +19.60.447 | +11.00.639 | +57.10.058 | +1.60.949 | +28.60.280 | 57.1%7 | +1.60.949 | +14.30.593 |
| Rectangle | +25.60.260 | -11.10.586 | +18.10.457 | +9.40.665 | +55.60.057 | -0.01.000 | +27.00.280 | -1.60.949 | 55.6%9 | +12.70.614 |
| Octagon | +12.90.585 | -23.80.290 | +5.40.833 | -3.30.888 | +42.90.125 | -12.70.614 | +14.30.577 | -14.30.593 | -12.70.614 | 42.9%7 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.