Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Jean vs Pai
Matches counted1,776
Win rate49.6%
Widest swing5.6 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jean's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low fence | 55.2% | +5.6 | 0.111 | 183 | |
| Full fence | 51.5% | +1.9 | 0.568 | 196 | |
| Breakable half fence | 51.0% | +1.4 | 0.673 | 190 | |
| Half fence | 51.0% | +1.4 | 0.675 | 196 | |
| Breakable full fence | 51.0% | +1.4 | 0.721 | 149 | |
| Open | 49.5% | -0.1 | 0.968 | 188 | |
| Rectangle | 48.0% | -1.6 | 0.681 | 150 | |
| Fence and open | 46.9% | -2.7 | 0.620 | 81 | |
| Single wall | 45.9% | -3.8 | 0.287 | 181 | |
| Octagon | 45.5% | -4.1 | 0.249 | 178 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jean's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 5.60 on 9 df, p 0.780
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 51.5%196 | +0.50.923 | +0.50.920 | +0.50.925 | -3.70.475 | +5.70.271 | +4.60.485 | +2.10.686 | +3.50.515 | +6.00.244 |
| Breakable full fence | -0.50.923 | 51.0%149 | -0.00.998 | -0.00.993 | -4.20.447 | +5.20.351 | +4.10.553 | +1.50.779 | +3.00.603 | +5.50.321 |
| Half fence | -0.50.920 | +0.00.998 | 51.0%196 | -0.00.995 | -4.20.416 | +5.20.316 | +4.10.534 | +1.60.761 | +3.00.578 | +5.50.287 |
| Breakable half fence | -0.50.925 | +0.00.993 | +0.00.995 | 51.0%190 | -4.10.423 | +5.20.317 | +4.10.533 | +1.60.758 | +3.00.576 | +5.50.287 |
| Low fence | +3.70.475 | +4.20.447 | +4.20.416 | +4.10.423 | 55.2%183 | +9.30.075 | +8.30.214 | +5.70.270 | +7.20.191 | +9.70.066 |
| Single wall | -5.70.271 | -5.20.351 | -5.20.316 | -5.20.317 | -9.30.075 | 45.9%181 | -1.10.874 | -3.60.487 | -2.10.697 | +0.30.947 |
| Fence and open | -4.60.485 | -4.10.553 | -4.10.534 | -4.10.533 | -8.30.214 | +1.10.874 | 46.9%81 | -2.60.701 | -1.10.875 | +1.40.833 |
| Open | -2.10.686 | -1.50.779 | -1.60.761 | -1.60.758 | -5.70.270 | +3.60.487 | +2.60.701 | 49.5%188 | +1.50.788 | +4.00.448 |
| Rectangle | -3.50.515 | -3.00.603 | -3.00.578 | -3.00.576 | -7.20.191 | +2.10.697 | +1.10.875 | -1.50.788 | 48.0%150 | +2.50.652 |
| Octagon | -6.00.244 | -5.50.321 | -5.50.287 | -5.50.287 | -9.70.066 | -0.30.947 | -1.40.833 | -4.00.448 | -2.50.652 | 45.5%178 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted1,677
Win rate49.5%
Widest swing5.4 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jean's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low fence | 54.9% | +5.4 | 0.132 | 173 | |
| Breakable full fence | 51.8% | +2.3 | 0.573 | 143 | |
| Breakable half fence | 51.4% | +1.9 | 0.590 | 179 | |
| Full fence | 51.1% | +1.6 | 0.647 | 184 | |
| Half fence | 51.1% | +1.6 | 0.647 | 184 | |
| Open | 47.7% | -1.8 | 0.615 | 172 | |
| Rectangle | 46.9% | -2.6 | 0.513 | 145 | |
| Single wall | 46.9% | -2.6 | 0.461 | 175 | |
| Fence and open | 46.8% | -2.7 | 0.623 | 77 · | |
| Octagon | 45.9% | -3.6 | 0.321 | 170 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jean's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 5.17 on 9 df, p 0.819
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 51.1%184 | -0.70.906 | +0.01.000 | -0.30.953 | -3.80.469 | +4.20.423 | +4.30.523 | +3.40.520 | +4.20.450 | +5.20.328 |
| Breakable full fence | +0.70.906 | 51.8%143 | +0.70.906 | +0.30.950 | -3.20.574 | +4.90.385 | +5.00.480 | +4.10.472 | +4.80.410 | +5.90.301 |
| Half fence | -0.01.000 | -0.70.906 | 51.1%184 | -0.30.953 | -3.80.469 | +4.20.423 | +4.30.523 | +3.40.520 | +4.20.450 | +5.20.328 |
| Breakable half fence | +0.30.953 | -0.30.950 | +0.30.953 | 51.4%179 | -3.50.509 | +4.50.393 | +4.70.496 | +3.70.486 | +4.50.420 | +5.50.303 |
| Low fence | +3.80.469 | +3.20.574 | +3.80.469 | +3.50.509 | 54.9%173 | +8.10.133 | +8.20.233 | +7.20.179 | +8.00.154 | +9.00.094 |
| Single wall | -4.20.423 | -4.90.385 | -4.20.423 | -4.50.393 | -8.10.133 | 46.9%175 | +0.10.988 | -0.80.879 | -0.00.994 | +1.00.856 |
| Fence and open | -4.30.523 | -5.00.480 | -4.30.523 | -4.70.496 | -8.20.233 | -0.10.988 | 46.8%77 | -0.90.893 | -0.10.984 | +0.90.899 |
| Open | -3.40.520 | -4.10.472 | -3.40.520 | -3.70.486 | -7.20.179 | +0.80.879 | +0.90.893 | 47.7%172 | +0.80.890 | +1.80.740 |
| Rectangle | -4.20.450 | -4.80.410 | -4.20.450 | -4.50.420 | -8.00.154 | +0.00.994 | +0.10.984 | -0.80.890 | 46.9%145 | +1.00.857 |
| Octagon | -5.20.328 | -5.90.301 | -5.20.328 | -5.50.303 | -9.00.094 | -1.00.856 | -0.90.899 | -1.80.740 | -1.00.857 | 45.9%170 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted99
Win rate51.5%
Widest swing-34.9 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jean's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rectangle | 80.0% | +28.5 | 0.191 | 5 · | |
| Open | 68.8% | +17.2 | 0.132 | 16 · | |
| Low fence | 60.0% | +8.5 | 0.571 | 10 · | |
| Full fence | 58.3% | +6.8 | 0.614 | 12 · | |
| Fence and open | 50.0% | -1.5 | 0.951 | 4 · | |
| Half fence | 50.0% | -1.5 | 0.911 | 12 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 45.5% | -6.1 | 0.670 | 11 · | |
| Octagon | 37.5% | -14.0 | 0.408 | 8 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 33.3% | -18.2 | 0.358 | 6 · | |
| Single wall | 16.7% | -34.9 | 0.078 | 6 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jean's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 8.55 on 9 df, p 0.480
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 58.3%12 | +25.00.317 | +8.30.682 | +12.90.537 | -1.70.937 | +41.70.094 | +8.30.771 | -10.40.569 | -21.70.394 | +20.80.361 |
| Breakable full fence | -25.00.317 | 33.3%6 | -16.70.502 | -12.10.627 | -26.70.302 | +16.70.505 | -16.70.598 | -35.40.132 | -46.70.122 | -4.20.872 |
| Half fence | -8.30.682 | +16.70.502 | 50.0%12 | +4.50.827 | -10.00.639 | +33.30.171 | +0.01.000 | -18.80.315 | -30.00.252 | +12.50.582 |
| Breakable half fence | -12.90.537 | +12.10.627 | -4.50.827 | 45.5%11 | -14.60.505 | +28.80.235 | -4.50.876 | -23.30.226 | -34.50.197 | +8.00.729 |
| Low fence | +1.70.937 | +26.70.302 | +10.00.639 | +14.60.505 | 60.0%10 | +43.30.091 | +10.00.733 | -8.80.648 | -20.00.439 | +22.50.343 |
| Single wall | -41.70.094 | -16.70.505 | -33.30.171 | -28.80.235 | -43.30.091 | 16.7%6 | -33.30.260 | -52.10.029 | -63.30.036 | -20.80.393 |
| Fence and open | -8.30.771 | +16.70.598 | -0.01.000 | +4.50.876 | -10.00.733 | +33.30.260 | 50.0%4 | -18.80.482 | -30.00.343 | +12.50.679 |
| Open | +10.40.569 | +35.40.132 | +18.80.315 | +23.30.226 | +8.80.648 | +52.10.029 | +18.80.482 | 68.8%16 | -11.20.627 | +31.20.143 |
| Rectangle | +21.70.394 | +46.70.122 | +30.00.252 | +34.50.197 | +20.00.439 | +63.30.036 | +30.00.343 | +11.20.627 | 80.0%5 | +42.50.135 |
| Octagon | -20.80.361 | +4.20.872 | -12.50.582 | -8.00.729 | -22.50.343 | +20.80.393 | -12.50.679 | -31.20.143 | -42.50.135 | 37.5%8 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.