Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Jean vs Lion
Matches counted2,197
Win rate48.1%
Widest swing-5.5 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jean's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 52.9% | +4.8 | 0.275 | 123 | |
| Breakable full fence | 51.8% | +3.7 | 0.209 | 249 | |
| Full fence | 51.0% | +3.0 | 0.386 | 196 | |
| Half fence | 49.5% | +1.4 | 0.670 | 200 | |
| Rectangle | 49.5% | +1.4 | 0.673 | 198 | |
| Open | 48.1% | +0.0 | 0.988 | 212 | |
| Single wall | 48.0% | -0.0 | 0.995 | 256 | |
| Breakable half fence | 46.4% | -1.7 | 0.580 | 233 | |
| Low fence | 42.7% | -5.3 | 0.075 | 248 | |
| Octagon | 42.5% | -5.5 | 0.120 | 181 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jean's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 8.84 on 9 df, p 0.452
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 51.0%196 | -0.80.869 | +1.50.762 | +4.70.335 | +8.30.082 | +3.00.531 | -1.80.751 | +2.90.557 | +1.50.762 | +8.50.099 |
| Breakable full fence | +0.80.869 | 51.8%249 | +2.30.627 | +5.50.231 | +9.10.043 | +3.80.398 | -1.00.850 | +3.70.429 | +2.30.627 | +9.30.058 |
| Half fence | -1.50.762 | -2.30.627 | 49.5%200 | +3.10.513 | +6.80.153 | +1.40.758 | -3.40.559 | +1.40.778 | +0.00.999 | +7.00.174 |
| Breakable half fence | -4.70.335 | -5.50.231 | -3.10.513 | 46.4%233 | +3.60.426 | -1.70.708 | -6.50.244 | -1.80.710 | -3.10.515 | +3.80.439 |
| Low fence | -8.30.082 | -9.10.043 | -6.80.153 | -3.60.426 | 42.7%248 | -5.30.232 | -10.10.066 | -5.40.249 | -6.80.155 | +0.20.967 |
| Single wall | -3.00.531 | -3.80.398 | -1.40.758 | +1.70.708 | +5.30.232 | 48.0%256 | -4.80.382 | -0.10.989 | -1.40.760 | +5.50.255 |
| Fence and open | +1.80.751 | +1.00.850 | +3.40.559 | +6.50.244 | +10.10.066 | +4.80.382 | 52.9%123 | +4.70.404 | +3.40.559 | +10.30.077 |
| Open | -2.90.557 | -3.70.429 | -1.40.778 | +1.80.710 | +5.40.249 | +0.10.989 | -4.70.404 | 48.1%212 | -1.40.780 | +5.60.269 |
| Rectangle | -1.50.762 | -2.30.627 | -0.00.999 | +3.10.515 | +6.80.155 | +1.40.760 | -3.40.559 | +1.40.780 | 49.5%198 | +7.00.175 |
| Octagon | -8.50.099 | -9.30.058 | -7.00.174 | -3.80.439 | -0.20.967 | -5.50.255 | -10.30.077 | -5.60.269 | -7.00.175 | 42.5%181 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted1,976
Win rate47.8%
Widest swing-6.2 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jean's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 52.2% | +4.5 | 0.210 | 180 | |
| Breakable full fence | 52.0% | +4.2 | 0.177 | 229 | |
| Fence and open | 51.3% | +3.5 | 0.433 | 117 | |
| Rectangle | 50.0% | +2.2 | 0.533 | 178 | |
| Half fence | 48.6% | +0.8 | 0.811 | 181 | |
| Open | 47.2% | -0.6 | 0.867 | 197 | |
| Breakable half fence | 46.9% | -0.9 | 0.781 | 207 | |
| Single wall | 45.7% | -2.0 | 0.519 | 223 | |
| Low fence | 43.1% | -4.7 | 0.158 | 202 | |
| Octagon | 41.6% | -6.2 | 0.094 | 166 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jean's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 8.84 on 9 df, p 0.452
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 52.2%180 | +0.20.959 | +3.60.494 | +5.40.293 | +9.20.074 | +6.50.196 | +0.90.874 | +5.00.331 | +2.20.674 | +10.70.047 |
| Breakable full fence | -0.20.959 | 52.0%229 | +3.40.501 | +5.10.287 | +8.90.065 | +6.20.186 | +0.70.904 | +4.80.328 | +2.00.694 | +10.40.041 |
| Half fence | -3.60.494 | -3.40.501 | 48.6%181 | +1.80.729 | +5.50.276 | +2.90.564 | -2.70.653 | +1.40.784 | -1.40.794 | +7.00.187 |
| Breakable half fence | -5.40.293 | -5.10.287 | -1.80.729 | 46.9%207 | +3.80.441 | +1.10.816 | -4.40.444 | -0.30.944 | -3.10.539 | +5.30.307 |
| Low fence | -9.20.074 | -8.90.065 | -5.50.276 | -3.80.441 | 43.1%202 | -2.70.580 | -8.20.156 | -4.10.406 | -6.90.176 | +1.50.772 |
| Single wall | -6.50.196 | -6.20.186 | -2.90.564 | -1.10.816 | +2.70.580 | 45.7%223 | -5.50.331 | -1.50.763 | -4.30.396 | +4.20.412 |
| Fence and open | -0.90.874 | -0.70.904 | +2.70.653 | +4.40.444 | +8.20.156 | +5.50.331 | 51.3%117 | +4.10.485 | +1.30.829 | +9.70.106 |
| Open | -5.00.331 | -4.80.328 | -1.40.784 | +0.30.944 | +4.10.406 | +1.50.763 | -4.10.485 | 47.2%197 | -2.80.589 | +5.60.281 |
| Rectangle | -2.20.674 | -2.00.694 | +1.40.794 | +3.10.539 | +6.90.176 | +4.30.396 | -1.30.829 | +2.80.589 | 50.0%178 | +8.40.117 |
| Octagon | -10.70.047 | -10.40.041 | -7.00.187 | -5.30.307 | -1.50.772 | -4.20.412 | -9.70.106 | -5.60.281 | -8.40.117 | 41.6%166 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted221
Win rate50.7%
Widest swing32.6 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jean's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 83.3% | +32.6 | 0.105 | 6 · | |
| Single wall | 63.6% | +13.0 | 0.106 | 33 · | |
| Open | 60.0% | +9.3 | 0.455 | 15 · | |
| Half fence | 57.9% | +7.2 | 0.511 | 19 · | |
| Octagon | 53.3% | +2.6 | 0.831 | 15 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 50.0% | -0.7 | 0.949 | 20 · | |
| Rectangle | 45.0% | -5.7 | 0.594 | 20 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 42.3% | -8.4 | 0.363 | 26 · | |
| Low fence | 41.3% | -9.4 | 0.153 | 46 · | |
| Full fence | 37.5% | -13.2 | 0.274 | 16 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jean's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 9.45 on 9 df, p 0.397
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 37.5%16 | -12.50.453 | -20.40.229 | -4.80.758 | -3.80.789 | -26.10.085 | -45.80.056 | -22.50.210 | -7.50.650 | -15.80.376 |
| Breakable full fence | +12.50.453 | 50.0%20 | -7.90.621 | +7.70.604 | +8.70.513 | -13.60.329 | -33.30.147 | -10.00.557 | +5.00.752 | -3.30.845 |
| Half fence | +20.40.229 | +7.90.621 | 57.9%19 | +15.60.302 | +16.60.222 | -5.80.682 | -25.40.258 | -2.10.901 | +12.90.421 | +4.60.790 |
| Breakable half fence | +4.80.758 | -7.70.604 | -15.60.302 | 42.3%26 | +1.00.934 | -21.30.103 | -41.00.070 | -17.70.275 | -2.70.855 | -11.00.495 |
| Low fence | +3.80.789 | -8.70.513 | -16.60.222 | -1.00.934 | 41.3%46 | -22.30.050 | -42.00.052 | -18.70.207 | -3.70.780 | -12.00.415 |
| Single wall | +26.10.085 | +13.60.329 | +5.80.682 | +21.30.103 | +22.30.050 | 63.6%33 | -19.70.346 | +3.60.809 | +18.60.185 | +10.30.499 |
| Fence and open | +45.80.056 | +33.30.147 | +25.40.258 | +41.00.070 | +42.00.052 | +19.70.346 | 83.3%6 | +23.30.306 | +38.30.099 | +30.00.201 |
| Open | +22.50.210 | +10.00.557 | +2.10.901 | +17.70.275 | +18.70.207 | -3.60.809 | -23.30.306 | 60.0%15 | +15.00.380 | +6.70.713 |
| Rectangle | +7.50.650 | -5.00.752 | -12.90.421 | +2.70.855 | +3.70.780 | -18.60.185 | -38.30.099 | -15.00.380 | 45.0%20 | -8.30.625 |
| Octagon | +15.80.376 | +3.30.845 | -4.60.790 | +11.00.495 | +12.00.415 | -10.30.499 | -30.00.201 | -6.70.713 | +8.30.625 | 53.3%15 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.