Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Jean vs Lau
Matches counted2,513
Win rate45.7%
Widest swing8.1 pts
Survive correction1
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jean's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 53.8% | +8.1 | 0.004 | 277 | |
| Low fence | 51.0% | +5.2 | 0.075 | 257 | |
| Half fence | 47.4% | +1.7 | 0.578 | 249 | |
| Open | 45.5% | -0.3 | 0.928 | 253 | |
| Single wall | 45.0% | -0.7 | 0.796 | 269 | |
| Fence and open | 44.4% | -1.3 | 0.785 | 108 | |
| Octagon | 43.9% | -1.8 | 0.543 | 255 | |
| Breakable half fence | 42.2% | -3.5 | 0.231 | 256 | |
| Rectangle | 41.8% | -3.9 | 0.213 | 225 | |
| Breakable full fence | 41.4% | -4.3 | 0.151 | 251 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jean's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 15.41 on 9 df, p 0.080
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 53.8%277 | +12.40.005 | +6.40.143 | +11.60.007 | +2.80.515 | +8.80.040 | +9.30.099 | +8.30.055 | +12.00.007 | +9.90.023 |
| Breakable full fence | -12.40.005 | 41.4%251 | -6.00.180 | -0.80.864 | -9.50.031 | -3.50.415 | -3.00.597 | -4.00.363 | -0.30.939 | -2.50.572 |
| Half fence | -6.40.143 | +6.00.180 | 47.4%249 | +5.20.240 | -3.60.420 | +2.40.583 | +3.00.608 | +1.90.664 | +5.60.220 | +3.50.435 |
| Breakable half fence | -11.60.007 | +0.80.864 | -5.20.240 | 42.2%256 | -8.80.046 | -2.80.519 | -2.20.691 | -3.30.458 | +0.40.928 | -1.70.692 |
| Low fence | -2.80.515 | +9.50.031 | +3.60.420 | +8.80.046 | 51.0%257 | +6.00.169 | +6.50.255 | +5.50.212 | +9.20.044 | +7.00.110 |
| Single wall | -8.80.040 | +3.50.415 | -2.40.583 | +2.80.519 | -6.00.169 | 45.0%269 | +0.50.924 | -0.50.914 | +3.20.474 | +1.10.807 |
| Fence and open | -9.30.099 | +3.00.597 | -3.00.608 | +2.20.691 | -6.50.255 | -0.50.924 | 44.4%108 | -1.00.860 | +2.70.645 | +0.50.927 |
| Open | -8.30.055 | +4.00.363 | -1.90.664 | +3.30.458 | -5.50.212 | +0.50.914 | +1.00.860 | 45.5%253 | +3.70.419 | +1.50.728 |
| Rectangle | -12.00.007 | +0.30.939 | -5.60.220 | -0.40.928 | -9.20.044 | -3.20.474 | -2.70.645 | -3.70.419 | 41.8%225 | -2.10.636 |
| Octagon | -9.90.023 | +2.50.572 | -3.50.435 | +1.70.692 | -7.00.110 | -1.10.807 | -0.50.927 | -1.50.728 | +2.10.636 | 43.9%255 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted2,235
Win rate47.2%
Widest swing7.3 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jean's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 54.5% | +7.3 | 0.010 | 266 | |
| Low fence | 51.6% | +4.4 | 0.164 | 225 | |
| Half fence | 49.5% | +2.4 | 0.461 | 216 | |
| Open | 47.5% | +0.4 | 0.906 | 223 | |
| Fence and open | 45.7% | -1.4 | 0.779 | 94 | |
| Single wall | 45.1% | -2.1 | 0.491 | 244 | |
| Octagon | 45.0% | -2.2 | 0.472 | 238 | |
| Breakable half fence | 44.9% | -2.3 | 0.479 | 214 | |
| Breakable full fence | 43.4% | -3.8 | 0.238 | 219 | |
| Rectangle | 42.2% | -5.0 | 0.143 | 199 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jean's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 12.64 on 9 df, p 0.180
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 54.5%266 | +11.10.015 | +5.00.277 | +9.70.036 | +3.00.513 | +9.40.033 | +8.80.144 | +7.00.124 | +12.30.009 | +9.60.032 |
| Breakable full fence | -11.10.015 | 43.4%219 | -6.20.198 | -1.50.756 | -8.20.085 | -1.70.713 | -2.40.699 | -4.20.380 | +1.20.810 | -1.60.734 |
| Half fence | -5.00.277 | +6.20.198 | 49.5%216 | +4.70.331 | -2.00.672 | +4.50.339 | +3.80.539 | +2.00.675 | +7.30.135 | +4.60.329 |
| Breakable half fence | -9.70.036 | +1.50.756 | -4.70.331 | 44.9%214 | -6.70.161 | -0.20.962 | -0.90.886 | -2.70.575 | +2.60.588 | -0.10.983 |
| Low fence | -3.00.513 | +8.20.085 | +2.00.672 | +6.70.161 | 51.6%225 | +6.50.161 | +5.80.344 | +4.00.395 | +9.30.054 | +6.60.156 |
| Single wall | -9.40.033 | +1.70.713 | -4.50.339 | +0.20.962 | -6.50.161 | 45.1%244 | -0.70.913 | -2.50.596 | +2.90.545 | +0.10.978 |
| Fence and open | -8.80.144 | +2.40.699 | -3.80.539 | +0.90.886 | -5.80.344 | +0.70.913 | 45.7%94 | -1.80.771 | +3.50.569 | +0.80.897 |
| Open | -7.00.124 | +4.20.380 | -2.00.675 | +2.70.575 | -4.00.395 | +2.50.596 | +1.80.771 | 47.5%223 | +5.30.273 | +2.60.579 |
| Rectangle | -12.30.009 | -1.20.810 | -7.30.135 | -2.60.588 | -9.30.054 | -2.90.545 | -3.50.569 | -5.30.273 | 42.2%199 | -2.80.564 |
| Octagon | -9.60.032 | +1.60.734 | -4.60.329 | +0.10.983 | -6.60.156 | -0.10.978 | -0.80.897 | -2.60.579 | +2.80.564 | 45.0%238 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted278
Win rate34.2%
Widest swing12.7 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jean's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low fence | 46.9% | +12.7 | 0.107 | 32 · | |
| Single wall | 44.0% | +9.8 | 0.277 | 25 · | |
| Rectangle | 38.5% | +4.3 | 0.628 | 26 · | |
| Full fence | 36.4% | +2.2 | 0.876 | 11 · | |
| Fence and open | 35.7% | +1.5 | 0.901 | 14 · | |
| Half fence | 33.3% | -0.8 | 0.914 | 33 · | |
| Open | 30.0% | -4.2 | 0.610 | 30 · | |
| Octagon | 29.4% | -4.8 | 0.669 | 17 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 28.6% | -5.6 | 0.406 | 42 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 28.1% | -6.0 | 0.443 | 32 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jean's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 5.06 on 9 df, p 0.829
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 36.4%11 | +8.20.608 | +3.00.854 | +7.80.616 | -10.50.545 | -7.60.669 | +0.70.973 | +6.40.698 | -2.10.904 | +7.00.700 |
| Breakable full fence | -8.20.608 | 28.1%32 | -5.20.649 | -0.50.966 | -18.80.121 | -15.90.213 | -7.60.607 | -1.90.871 | -10.30.404 | -1.30.924 |
| Half fence | -3.00.854 | +5.20.649 | 33.3%33 | +4.80.657 | -13.60.265 | -10.70.407 | -2.40.875 | +3.30.777 | -5.10.683 | +3.90.778 |
| Breakable half fence | -7.80.616 | +0.50.966 | -4.80.657 | 28.6%42 | -18.30.105 | -15.40.198 | -7.10.615 | -1.40.895 | -9.90.397 | -0.80.949 |
| Low fence | +10.50.545 | +18.80.121 | +13.60.265 | +18.30.105 | 46.9%32 | +2.90.829 | +11.20.482 | +16.90.173 | +8.40.520 | +17.50.236 |
| Single wall | +7.60.669 | +15.90.213 | +10.70.407 | +15.40.198 | -2.90.829 | 44.0%25 | +8.30.614 | +14.00.283 | +5.50.688 | +14.60.339 |
| Fence and open | -0.70.973 | +7.60.607 | +2.40.875 | +7.10.615 | -11.20.482 | -8.30.614 | 35.7%14 | +5.70.705 | -2.80.864 | +6.30.709 |
| Open | -6.40.698 | +1.90.871 | -3.30.777 | +1.40.895 | -16.90.173 | -14.00.283 | -5.70.705 | 30.0%30 | -8.50.505 | +0.60.966 |
| Rectangle | +2.10.904 | +10.30.404 | +5.10.683 | +9.90.397 | -8.40.520 | -5.50.688 | +2.80.864 | +8.50.505 | 38.5%26 | +9.10.543 |
| Octagon | -7.00.700 | +1.30.924 | -3.90.778 | +0.80.949 | -17.50.236 | -14.60.339 | -6.30.709 | -0.60.966 | -9.10.543 | 29.4%17 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.