Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Jean vs Jeffry
Matches counted2,354
Win rate47.5%
Widest swing6.2 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jean's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 53.6% | +6.2 | 0.186 | 110 | |
| Breakable half fence | 51.2% | +3.7 | 0.264 | 205 | |
| Open | 50.0% | +2.5 | 0.425 | 228 | |
| Half fence | 48.5% | +1.0 | 0.740 | 260 | |
| Full fence | 48.0% | +0.5 | 0.880 | 244 | |
| Octagon | 47.4% | -0.1 | 0.981 | 213 | |
| Low fence | 46.3% | -1.2 | 0.680 | 255 | |
| Rectangle | 43.9% | -3.6 | 0.229 | 244 | |
| Breakable full fence | 43.8% | -3.7 | 0.238 | 224 | |
| Single wall | 43.4% | -4.1 | 0.195 | 228 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jean's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 7.66 on 9 df, p 0.569
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 48.0%244 | +4.20.362 | -0.50.909 | -3.30.490 | +1.70.708 | +4.50.324 | -5.70.322 | -2.00.656 | +4.10.364 | +0.50.909 |
| Breakable full fence | -4.20.362 | 43.8%224 | -4.70.300 | -7.50.122 | -2.50.580 | +0.30.944 | -9.90.089 | -6.20.183 | -0.10.982 | -3.70.442 |
| Half fence | +0.50.909 | +4.70.300 | 48.5%260 | -2.80.555 | +2.20.619 | +5.00.265 | -5.20.363 | -1.50.734 | +4.60.300 | +1.00.821 |
| Breakable half fence | +3.30.490 | +7.50.122 | +2.80.555 | 51.2%205 | +5.00.292 | +7.80.105 | -2.40.682 | +1.20.800 | +7.40.119 | +3.80.437 |
| Low fence | -1.70.708 | +2.50.580 | -2.20.619 | -5.00.292 | 46.3%255 | +2.90.529 | -7.40.197 | -3.70.413 | +2.40.587 | -1.10.805 |
| Single wall | -4.50.324 | -0.30.944 | -5.00.265 | -7.80.105 | -2.90.529 | 43.4%228 | -10.20.078 | -6.60.159 | -0.40.925 | -4.00.400 |
| Fence and open | +5.70.322 | +9.90.089 | +5.20.363 | +2.40.682 | +7.40.197 | +10.20.078 | 53.6%110 | +3.60.531 | +9.80.088 | +6.20.289 |
| Open | +2.00.656 | +6.20.183 | +1.50.734 | -1.20.800 | +3.70.413 | +6.60.159 | -3.60.531 | 50.0%228 | +6.20.181 | +2.60.588 |
| Rectangle | -4.10.364 | +0.10.982 | -4.60.300 | -7.40.119 | -2.40.587 | +0.40.925 | -9.80.088 | -6.20.181 | 43.9%244 | -3.60.445 |
| Octagon | -0.50.909 | +3.70.442 | -1.00.821 | -3.80.437 | +1.10.805 | +4.00.400 | -6.20.289 | -2.60.588 | +3.60.445 | 47.4%213 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted2,264
Win rate47.4%
Widest swing6.3 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jean's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 53.7% | +6.3 | 0.178 | 108 | |
| Open | 50.2% | +2.8 | 0.377 | 219 | |
| Breakable half fence | 50.0% | +2.6 | 0.440 | 200 | |
| Half fence | 48.8% | +1.4 | 0.633 | 252 | |
| Octagon | 47.9% | +0.6 | 0.874 | 194 | |
| Full fence | 46.8% | -0.6 | 0.843 | 233 | |
| Low fence | 46.3% | -1.1 | 0.726 | 246 | |
| Single wall | 43.9% | -3.5 | 0.272 | 221 | |
| Breakable full fence | 43.4% | -4.0 | 0.215 | 221 | |
| Rectangle | 43.2% | -4.2 | 0.183 | 229 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jean's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 7.32 on 9 df, p 0.604
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 46.8%233 | +3.30.474 | -2.00.655 | -3.20.504 | +0.40.923 | +2.90.536 | -6.90.234 | -3.50.464 | +3.50.443 | -1.20.812 |
| Breakable full fence | -3.30.474 | 43.4%221 | -5.40.243 | -6.60.178 | -2.90.529 | -0.50.924 | -10.30.080 | -6.80.154 | +0.20.965 | -4.50.358 |
| Half fence | +2.00.655 | +5.40.243 | 48.8%252 | -1.20.801 | +2.50.581 | +4.90.285 | -4.90.395 | -1.40.759 | +5.60.220 | +0.90.855 |
| Breakable half fence | +3.20.504 | +6.60.178 | +1.20.801 | 50.0%200 | +3.70.442 | +6.10.210 | -3.70.535 | -0.20.963 | +6.80.161 | +2.10.682 |
| Low fence | -0.40.923 | +2.90.529 | -2.50.581 | -3.70.442 | 46.3%246 | +2.50.595 | -7.40.202 | -3.90.402 | +3.10.496 | -1.60.739 |
| Single wall | -2.90.536 | +0.50.924 | -4.90.285 | -6.10.210 | -2.50.595 | 43.9%221 | -9.80.094 | -6.30.183 | +0.70.888 | -4.00.409 |
| Fence and open | +6.90.234 | +10.30.080 | +4.90.395 | +3.70.535 | +7.40.202 | +9.80.094 | 53.7%108 | +3.50.554 | +10.50.072 | +5.80.337 |
| Open | +3.50.464 | +6.80.154 | +1.40.759 | +0.20.963 | +3.90.402 | +6.30.183 | -3.50.554 | 50.2%219 | +7.00.138 | +2.30.642 |
| Rectangle | -3.50.443 | -0.20.965 | -5.60.220 | -6.80.161 | -3.10.496 | -0.70.888 | -10.50.072 | -7.00.138 | 43.2%229 | -4.70.333 |
| Octagon | +1.20.812 | +4.50.358 | -0.90.855 | -2.10.682 | +1.60.739 | +4.00.409 | -5.80.337 | -2.30.642 | +4.70.333 | 47.9%194 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted90
Win rate50.0%
Widest swing50.0 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jean's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakable half fence | 100.0% | +50.0 | 0.021 | 5 · | |
| Full fence | 72.7% | +22.7 | 0.108 | 11 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 66.7% | +16.7 | 0.557 | 3 · | |
| Rectangle | 53.3% | +3.3 | 0.777 | 15 · | |
| Fence and open | 50.0% | +0.0 | 1.000 | 2 · | |
| Low fence | 44.4% | -5.6 | 0.725 | 9 · | |
| Open | 44.4% | -5.6 | 0.725 | 9 · | |
| Octagon | 42.1% | -7.9 | 0.438 | 19 · | |
| Half fence | 37.5% | -12.5 | 0.459 | 8 · | |
| Single wall | 28.6% | -21.4 | 0.238 | 7 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jean's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 10.11 on 9 df, p 0.341
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 72.7%11 | +6.10.837 | +35.20.125 | -27.30.195 | +28.30.199 | +44.20.066 | +22.70.522 | +28.30.199 | +19.40.315 | +30.60.105 |
| Breakable full fence | -6.10.837 | 66.7%3 | +29.20.387 | -33.30.168 | +22.20.505 | +38.10.260 | +16.70.709 | +22.20.505 | +13.30.671 | +24.60.427 |
| Half fence | -35.20.125 | -29.20.387 | 37.5%8 | -62.50.024 | -6.90.772 | +8.90.714 | -12.50.747 | -6.90.772 | -15.80.469 | -4.60.824 |
| Breakable half fence | +27.30.195 | +33.30.168 | +62.50.024 | 100.0%5 | +55.60.038 | +71.40.013 | +50.00.088 | +55.60.038 | +46.70.058 | +57.90.021 |
| Low fence | -28.30.199 | -22.20.505 | +6.90.772 | -55.60.038 | 44.4%9 | +15.90.515 | -5.60.887 | +0.01.000 | -8.90.673 | +2.30.907 |
| Single wall | -44.20.066 | -38.10.260 | -8.90.714 | -71.40.013 | -15.90.515 | 28.6%7 | -21.40.571 | -15.90.515 | -24.80.277 | -13.50.529 |
| Fence and open | -22.70.522 | -16.70.709 | +12.50.747 | -50.00.088 | +5.60.887 | +21.40.571 | 50.0%2 | +5.60.887 | -3.30.929 | +7.90.830 |
| Open | -28.30.199 | -22.20.505 | +6.90.772 | -55.60.038 | -0.01.000 | +15.90.515 | -5.60.887 | 44.4%9 | -8.90.673 | +2.30.907 |
| Rectangle | -19.40.315 | -13.30.671 | +15.80.469 | -46.70.058 | +8.90.673 | +24.80.277 | +3.30.929 | +8.90.673 | 53.3%15 | +11.20.515 |
| Octagon | -30.60.105 | -24.60.427 | +4.60.824 | -57.90.021 | -2.30.907 | +13.50.529 | -7.90.830 | -2.30.907 | -11.20.515 | 42.1%19 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.