Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Jacky vs Wolf
Matches counted4,453
Win rate51.8%
Widest swing3.8 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jacky's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Octagon | 55.5% | +3.8 | 0.111 | 407 | |
| Half fence | 53.3% | +1.5 | 0.506 | 445 | |
| Breakable half fence | 53.1% | +1.3 | 0.559 | 437 | |
| Breakable full fence | 52.1% | +0.4 | 0.875 | 449 | |
| Rectangle | 51.6% | -0.2 | 0.931 | 506 | |
| Low fence | 51.5% | -0.3 | 0.898 | 441 | |
| Open | 51.3% | -0.4 | 0.856 | 411 | |
| Full fence | 49.4% | -2.4 | 0.268 | 478 | |
| Fence and open | 48.9% | -2.9 | 0.375 | 227 | |
| Single wall | 48.3% | -3.4 | 0.139 | 422 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jacky's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 6.86 on 9 df, p 0.651
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 49.4%478 | -2.80.404 | -3.90.238 | -3.70.261 | -2.10.524 | +1.00.757 | +0.50.906 | -2.00.559 | -2.20.489 | -6.20.068 |
| Breakable full fence | +2.80.404 | 52.1%449 | -1.10.732 | -1.00.772 | +0.70.848 | +3.80.266 | +3.20.429 | +0.80.820 | +0.50.869 | -3.40.317 |
| Half fence | +3.90.238 | +1.10.732 | 53.3%445 | +0.20.960 | +1.80.595 | +4.90.148 | +4.40.285 | +1.90.574 | +1.70.605 | -2.30.506 |
| Breakable half fence | +3.70.261 | +1.00.772 | -0.20.960 | 53.1%437 | +1.60.632 | +4.80.164 | +4.20.305 | +1.80.610 | +1.50.644 | -2.40.477 |
| Low fence | +2.10.524 | -0.70.848 | -1.80.595 | -1.60.632 | 51.5%441 | +3.10.358 | +2.60.528 | +0.10.968 | -0.10.974 | -4.10.237 |
| Single wall | -1.00.757 | -3.80.266 | -4.90.148 | -4.80.164 | -3.10.358 | 48.3%422 | -0.60.892 | -3.00.387 | -3.20.326 | -7.20.038 |
| Fence and open | -0.50.906 | -3.20.429 | -4.40.285 | -4.20.305 | -2.60.528 | +0.60.892 | 48.9%227 | -2.40.555 | -2.70.502 | -6.60.109 |
| Open | +2.00.559 | -0.80.820 | -1.90.574 | -1.80.610 | -0.10.968 | +3.00.387 | +2.40.555 | 51.3%411 | -0.20.942 | -4.20.230 |
| Rectangle | +2.20.489 | -0.50.869 | -1.70.605 | -1.50.644 | +0.10.974 | +3.20.326 | +2.70.502 | +0.20.942 | 51.6%506 | -4.00.235 |
| Octagon | +6.20.068 | +3.40.317 | +2.30.506 | +2.40.477 | +4.10.237 | +7.20.038 | +6.60.109 | +4.20.230 | +4.00.235 | 55.5%407 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted4,107
Win rate51.9%
Widest swing3.6 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jacky's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Octagon | 55.4% | +3.6 | 0.145 | 377 | |
| Half fence | 53.7% | +1.9 | 0.424 | 417 | |
| Breakable full fence | 52.1% | +0.2 | 0.927 | 409 | |
| Open | 51.9% | +0.0 | 0.991 | 370 | |
| Breakable half fence | 51.7% | -0.2 | 0.944 | 412 | |
| Low fence | 51.6% | -0.3 | 0.901 | 413 | |
| Rectangle | 51.4% | -0.5 | 0.834 | 463 | |
| Full fence | 50.2% | -1.6 | 0.467 | 440 | |
| Fence and open | 49.3% | -2.6 | 0.442 | 211 | |
| Single wall | 48.6% | -3.3 | 0.175 | 385 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jacky's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 5.22 on 9 df, p 0.815
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 50.2%440 | -1.90.590 | -3.50.307 | -1.50.668 | -1.30.694 | +1.70.635 | +0.90.823 | -1.70.637 | -1.20.724 | -5.20.137 |
| Breakable full fence | +1.90.590 | 52.1%409 | -1.60.637 | +0.40.913 | +0.50.885 | +3.50.323 | +2.80.510 | +0.20.959 | +0.70.842 | -3.40.345 |
| Half fence | +3.50.307 | +1.60.637 | 53.7%417 | +2.00.561 | +2.10.536 | +5.20.145 | +4.40.294 | +1.80.609 | +2.30.493 | -1.70.627 |
| Breakable half fence | +1.50.668 | -0.40.913 | -2.00.561 | 51.7%412 | +0.10.971 | +3.10.378 | +2.40.569 | -0.20.957 | +0.30.931 | -3.70.293 |
| Low fence | +1.30.694 | -0.50.885 | -2.10.536 | -0.10.971 | 51.6%413 | +3.00.397 | +2.30.589 | -0.30.929 | +0.20.960 | -3.90.277 |
| Single wall | -1.70.635 | -3.50.323 | -5.20.145 | -3.10.378 | -3.00.397 | 48.6%385 | -0.70.867 | -3.30.362 | -2.80.411 | -6.90.058 |
| Fence and open | -0.90.823 | -2.80.510 | -4.40.294 | -2.40.569 | -2.30.589 | +0.70.867 | 49.3%211 | -2.60.546 | -2.10.611 | -6.20.152 |
| Open | +1.70.637 | -0.20.959 | -1.80.609 | +0.20.957 | +0.30.929 | +3.30.362 | +2.60.546 | 51.9%370 | +0.50.889 | -3.50.331 |
| Rectangle | +1.20.724 | -0.70.842 | -2.30.493 | -0.30.931 | -0.20.960 | +2.80.411 | +2.10.611 | -0.50.889 | 51.4%463 | -4.00.244 |
| Octagon | +5.20.137 | +3.40.345 | +1.70.627 | +3.70.293 | +3.90.277 | +6.90.058 | +6.20.152 | +3.50.331 | +4.00.244 | 55.4%377 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted346
Win rate50.6%
Widest swing25.4 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jacky's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakable half fence | 76.0% | +25.4 | 0.008 | 25 · | |
| Octagon | 56.7% | +6.1 | 0.485 | 30 · | |
| Rectangle | 53.5% | +2.9 | 0.683 | 43 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 52.5% | +1.9 | 0.796 | 40 · | |
| Low fence | 50.0% | -0.6 | 0.949 | 28 · | |
| Half fence | 46.4% | -4.2 | 0.647 | 28 · | |
| Open | 46.3% | -4.2 | 0.563 | 41 · | |
| Single wall | 46.0% | -4.6 | 0.551 | 37 · | |
| Fence and open | 43.8% | -6.8 | 0.576 | 16 · | |
| Full fence | 39.5% | -11.1 | 0.147 | 38 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jacky's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 10.10 on 9 df, p 0.343
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 39.5%38 | -13.00.249 | -7.00.572 | -36.50.004 | -10.50.394 | -6.50.571 | -4.30.770 | -6.90.538 | -14.00.207 | -17.20.158 |
| Breakable full fence | +13.00.249 | 52.5%40 | +6.10.622 | -23.50.058 | +2.50.839 | +6.50.565 | +8.80.554 | +6.20.579 | -1.00.928 | -4.20.729 |
| Half fence | +7.00.572 | -6.10.622 | 46.4%28 | -29.60.028 | -3.60.789 | +0.50.969 | +2.70.864 | +0.10.994 | -7.10.561 | -10.20.436 |
| Breakable half fence | +36.50.004 | +23.50.058 | +29.60.028 | 76.0%25 | +26.00.051 | +30.10.019 | +32.20.036 | +29.70.018 | +22.50.065 | +19.30.133 |
| Low fence | +10.50.394 | -2.50.839 | +3.60.789 | -26.00.051 | 50.0%28 | +4.00.746 | +6.20.690 | +3.70.765 | -3.50.774 | -6.70.611 |
| Single wall | +6.50.571 | -6.50.565 | -0.50.969 | -30.10.019 | -4.00.746 | 46.0%37 | +2.20.883 | -0.40.972 | -7.50.501 | -10.70.383 |
| Fence and open | +4.30.770 | -8.80.554 | -2.70.864 | -32.20.036 | -6.20.690 | -2.20.883 | 43.8%16 | -2.60.860 | -9.70.506 | -12.90.404 |
| Open | +6.90.538 | -6.20.579 | -0.10.994 | -29.70.018 | -3.70.765 | +0.40.972 | +2.60.860 | 46.3%41 | -7.20.513 | -10.30.390 |
| Rectangle | +14.00.207 | +1.00.928 | +7.10.561 | -22.50.065 | +3.50.774 | +7.50.501 | +9.70.506 | +7.20.513 | 53.5%43 | -3.20.788 |
| Octagon | +17.20.158 | +4.20.729 | +10.20.436 | -19.30.133 | +6.70.611 | +10.70.383 | +12.90.404 | +10.30.390 | +3.20.788 | 56.7%30 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.