Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Jacky vs Vanessa
Matches counted3,022
Win rate50.4%
Widest swing-7.1 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jacky's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakable half fence | 56.6% | +6.2 | 0.020 | 316 | |
| Octagon | 54.5% | +4.1 | 0.097 | 367 | |
| Fence and open | 53.5% | +3.0 | 0.454 | 144 | |
| Breakable full fence | 53.4% | +3.0 | 0.257 | 322 | |
| Full fence | 49.7% | -0.8 | 0.780 | 302 | |
| Half fence | 49.5% | -0.9 | 0.734 | 287 | |
| Rectangle | 49.0% | -1.4 | 0.603 | 308 | |
| Single wall | 47.9% | -2.5 | 0.390 | 259 | |
| Open | 47.2% | -3.2 | 0.268 | 267 | |
| Low fence | 43.3% | -7.1 | 0.009 | 307 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jacky's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 17.40 on 9 df, p 0.043
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 49.7%302 | -3.80.349 | +0.20.963 | -7.00.082 | +6.30.116 | +1.80.672 | -3.80.453 | +2.50.555 | +0.60.874 | -4.80.214 |
| Breakable full fence | +3.80.349 | 53.4%322 | +3.90.332 | -3.20.412 | +10.10.011 | +5.50.184 | -0.10.991 | +6.20.133 | +4.40.270 | -1.10.777 |
| Half fence | -0.20.963 | -3.90.332 | 49.5%287 | -7.20.078 | +6.20.133 | +1.60.709 | -4.00.434 | +2.30.591 | +0.50.912 | -5.00.202 |
| Breakable half fence | +7.00.082 | +3.20.412 | +7.20.078 | 56.6%316 | +13.3<0.001 | +8.80.036 | +3.20.525 | +9.50.023 | +7.60.057 | +2.10.573 |
| Low fence | -6.30.116 | -10.10.011 | -6.20.133 | -13.3<0.001 | 43.3%307 | -4.60.278 | -10.20.044 | -3.90.353 | -5.70.156 | -11.20.004 |
| Single wall | -1.80.672 | -5.50.184 | -1.60.709 | -8.80.036 | +4.60.278 | 47.9%259 | -5.60.282 | +0.70.875 | -1.10.785 | -6.60.103 |
| Fence and open | +3.80.453 | +0.10.991 | +4.00.434 | -3.20.525 | +10.20.044 | +5.60.282 | 53.5%144 | +6.30.224 | +4.40.378 | -1.00.834 |
| Open | -2.50.555 | -6.20.133 | -2.30.591 | -9.50.023 | +3.90.353 | -0.70.875 | -6.30.224 | 47.2%267 | -1.80.661 | -7.30.069 |
| Rectangle | -0.60.874 | -4.40.270 | -0.50.912 | -7.60.057 | +5.70.156 | +1.10.785 | -4.40.378 | +1.80.661 | 49.0%308 | -5.50.157 |
| Octagon | +4.80.214 | +1.10.777 | +5.00.202 | -2.10.573 | +11.20.004 | +6.60.103 | +1.00.834 | +7.30.069 | +5.50.157 | 54.5%367 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted2,258
Win rate48.6%
Widest swing-9.0 pts
Survive correction1
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jacky's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakable half fence | 55.6% | +7.0 | 0.027 | 225 | |
| Fence and open | 53.7% | +5.1 | 0.275 | 108 | |
| Octagon | 51.9% | +3.4 | 0.226 | 283 | |
| Breakable full fence | 50.6% | +2.0 | 0.499 | 249 | |
| Rectangle | 48.7% | +0.1 | 0.980 | 224 | |
| Half fence | 48.6% | -0.0 | 0.994 | 208 | |
| Full fence | 47.5% | -1.1 | 0.737 | 221 | |
| Single wall | 46.3% | -2.3 | 0.514 | 190 | |
| Open | 45.2% | -3.4 | 0.305 | 208 | |
| Low fence | 39.6% | -9.0 | 0.003 | 245 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jacky's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 16.58 on 9 df, p 0.056
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 47.5%221 | -3.10.503 | -1.10.828 | -8.10.089 | +7.90.085 | +1.20.809 | -6.20.291 | +2.30.630 | -1.10.808 | -4.40.323 |
| Breakable full fence | +3.10.503 | 50.6%249 | +2.00.663 | -5.00.281 | +11.00.014 | +4.30.373 | -3.10.590 | +5.40.249 | +1.90.673 | -1.30.757 |
| Half fence | +1.10.828 | -2.00.663 | 48.6%208 | -7.00.145 | +9.00.055 | +2.20.655 | -5.10.386 | +3.40.492 | -0.10.983 | -3.40.458 |
| Breakable half fence | +8.10.089 | +5.00.281 | +7.00.145 | 55.6%225 | +16.0<0.001 | +9.20.061 | +1.90.751 | +10.40.031 | +6.90.144 | +3.60.417 |
| Low fence | -7.90.085 | -11.00.014 | -9.00.055 | -16.0<0.001 | 39.6%245 | -6.70.159 | -14.10.014 | -5.60.229 | -9.10.048 | -12.30.005 |
| Single wall | -1.20.809 | -4.30.373 | -2.20.655 | -9.20.061 | +6.70.159 | 46.3%190 | -7.40.220 | +1.10.822 | -2.30.634 | -5.60.230 |
| Fence and open | +6.20.291 | +3.10.590 | +5.10.386 | -1.90.751 | +14.10.014 | +7.40.220 | 53.7%108 | +8.50.151 | +5.00.389 | +1.80.755 |
| Open | -2.30.630 | -5.40.249 | -3.40.492 | -10.40.031 | +5.60.229 | -1.10.822 | -8.50.151 | 45.2%208 | -3.50.470 | -6.80.139 |
| Rectangle | +1.10.808 | -1.90.673 | +0.10.983 | -6.90.144 | +9.10.048 | +2.30.634 | -5.00.389 | +3.50.470 | 48.7%224 | -3.30.463 |
| Octagon | +4.40.323 | +1.30.757 | +3.40.458 | -3.60.417 | +12.30.005 | +5.60.230 | -1.80.755 | +6.80.139 | +3.30.463 | 51.9%283 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted764
Win rate55.9%
Widest swing7.2 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jacky's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Octagon | 63.1% | +7.2 | 0.159 | 84 | |
| Breakable full fence | 63.0% | +7.1 | 0.197 | 73 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 59.3% | +3.5 | 0.480 | 91 | |
| Low fence | 58.1% | +2.2 | 0.719 | 62 · | |
| Full fence | 55.6% | -0.3 | 0.949 | 81 | |
| Open | 54.2% | -1.6 | 0.790 | 59 · | |
| Fence and open | 52.8% | -3.1 | 0.700 | 36 · | |
| Single wall | 52.2% | -3.7 | 0.515 | 69 · | |
| Half fence | 51.9% | -4.0 | 0.451 | 79 · | |
| Rectangle | 50.0% | -5.9 | 0.249 | 84 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jacky's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 6.09 on 9 df, p 0.731
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 55.6%81 | -7.50.347 | +3.70.643 | -3.80.616 | -2.50.764 | +3.40.679 | +2.80.781 | +1.30.877 | +5.60.475 | -7.50.324 |
| Breakable full fence | +7.50.347 | 63.0%73 | +11.10.166 | +3.70.632 | +5.00.557 | +10.80.191 | +10.20.306 | +8.80.308 | +13.00.101 | -0.10.992 |
| Half fence | -3.70.643 | -11.10.166 | 51.9%79 | -7.40.330 | -6.20.465 | -0.30.973 | -0.90.930 | -2.30.785 | +1.90.809 | -11.20.148 |
| Breakable half fence | +3.80.616 | -3.70.632 | +7.40.330 | 59.3%91 | +1.30.875 | +7.20.365 | +6.60.500 | +5.10.537 | +9.30.215 | -3.80.611 |
| Low fence | +2.50.764 | -5.00.557 | +6.20.465 | -1.30.875 | 58.1%62 | +5.90.499 | +5.30.611 | +3.80.671 | +8.10.334 | -5.00.538 |
| Single wall | -3.40.679 | -10.80.191 | +0.30.973 | -7.20.365 | -5.90.499 | 52.2%69 | -0.60.953 | -2.10.816 | +2.20.789 | -10.90.173 |
| Fence and open | -2.80.781 | -10.20.306 | +0.90.930 | -6.60.500 | -5.30.611 | +0.60.953 | 52.8%36 | -1.50.890 | +2.80.780 | -10.30.290 |
| Open | -1.30.877 | -8.80.308 | +2.30.785 | -5.10.537 | -3.80.671 | +2.10.816 | +1.50.890 | 54.2%59 | +4.20.618 | -8.90.288 |
| Rectangle | -5.60.475 | -13.00.101 | -1.90.809 | -9.30.215 | -8.10.334 | -2.20.789 | -2.80.780 | -4.20.618 | 50.0%84 | -13.10.087 |
| Octagon | +7.50.324 | +0.10.992 | +11.20.148 | +3.80.611 | +5.00.538 | +10.90.173 | +10.30.290 | +8.90.288 | +13.10.087 | 63.1%84 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.