Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Jacky vs Taka
Matches counted1,334
Win rate45.5%
Widest swing-8.7 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jacky's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Octagon | 51.8% | +6.3 | 0.163 | 112 | |
| Full fence | 51.7% | +6.2 | 0.107 | 151 | |
| Open | 49.7% | +4.2 | 0.251 | 163 | |
| Breakable half fence | 47.5% | +1.9 | 0.630 | 137 | |
| Half fence | 47.2% | +1.7 | 0.689 | 125 | |
| Rectangle | 45.9% | +0.4 | 0.936 | 109 | |
| Fence and open | 40.7% | -4.8 | 0.447 | 59 · | |
| Single wall | 39.2% | -6.3 | 0.107 | 143 | |
| Low fence | 37.5% | -8.0 | 0.056 | 128 | |
| Breakable full fence | 36.8% | -8.7 | 0.031 | 136 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jacky's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 15.89 on 9 df, p 0.069
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 51.7%151 | +14.90.011 | +4.50.461 | +4.20.475 | +14.20.018 | +12.50.032 | +11.00.153 | +2.00.728 | +5.80.357 | -0.10.983 |
| Breakable full fence | -14.90.011 | 36.8%136 | -10.40.088 | -10.70.074 | -0.70.902 | -2.40.680 | -3.90.605 | -12.90.025 | -9.10.150 | -15.00.018 |
| Half fence | -4.50.461 | +10.40.088 | 47.2%125 | -0.20.968 | +9.70.118 | +8.00.185 | +6.50.407 | -2.50.675 | +1.30.839 | -4.60.481 |
| Breakable half fence | -4.20.475 | +10.70.074 | +0.20.968 | 47.5%137 | +9.90.102 | +8.30.162 | +6.80.383 | -2.20.698 | +1.60.806 | -4.30.496 |
| Low fence | -14.20.018 | +0.70.902 | -9.70.118 | -9.90.102 | 37.5%128 | -1.70.779 | -3.20.678 | -12.20.038 | -8.40.192 | -14.30.026 |
| Single wall | -12.50.032 | +2.40.680 | -8.00.185 | -8.30.162 | +1.70.779 | 39.2%143 | -1.50.841 | -10.50.065 | -6.70.285 | -12.60.044 |
| Fence and open | -11.00.153 | +3.90.605 | -6.50.407 | -6.80.383 | +3.20.678 | +1.50.841 | 40.7%59 | -9.00.235 | -5.20.517 | -11.10.167 |
| Open | -2.00.728 | +12.90.025 | +2.50.675 | +2.20.698 | +12.20.038 | +10.50.065 | +9.00.235 | 49.7%163 | +3.80.536 | -2.10.733 |
| Rectangle | -5.80.357 | +9.10.150 | -1.30.839 | -1.60.806 | +8.40.192 | +6.70.285 | +5.20.517 | -3.80.536 | 45.9%109 | -5.90.379 |
| Octagon | +0.10.983 | +15.00.018 | +4.60.481 | +4.30.496 | +14.30.026 | +12.60.044 | +11.10.167 | +2.10.733 | +5.90.379 | 51.8%112 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted1,160
Win rate45.2%
Widest swing-11.0 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jacky's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 50.7% | +5.6 | 0.165 | 136 | |
| Octagon | 50.5% | +5.3 | 0.256 | 103 | |
| Open | 48.3% | +3.1 | 0.415 | 147 | |
| Half fence | 48.1% | +2.9 | 0.523 | 106 | |
| Breakable half fence | 46.0% | +0.8 | 0.851 | 124 | |
| Rectangle | 44.0% | -1.2 | 0.808 | 91 | |
| Single wall | 41.2% | -4.0 | 0.355 | 119 | |
| Low fence | 38.7% | -6.4 | 0.152 | 111 | |
| Breakable full fence | 36.9% | -8.3 | 0.052 | 122 | |
| Fence and open | 34.1% | -11.0 | 0.149 | 41 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jacky's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 11.83 on 9 df, p 0.223
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 50.7%136 | +13.80.025 | +2.60.686 | +4.80.442 | +12.00.060 | +9.60.127 | +16.60.062 | +2.40.682 | +6.80.316 | +0.20.969 |
| Breakable full fence | -13.80.025 | 36.9%122 | -11.20.087 | -9.10.148 | -1.90.771 | -4.30.495 | +2.70.752 | -11.40.060 | -7.10.297 | -13.60.040 |
| Half fence | -2.60.686 | +11.20.087 | 48.1%106 | +2.10.745 | +9.40.164 | +6.90.296 | +14.00.126 | -0.20.977 | +4.20.560 | -2.40.732 |
| Breakable half fence | -4.80.442 | +9.10.148 | -2.10.745 | 46.0%124 | +7.20.263 | +4.80.452 | +11.80.185 | -2.30.702 | +2.00.770 | -4.50.498 |
| Low fence | -12.00.060 | +1.90.771 | -9.40.164 | -7.20.263 | 38.7%111 | -2.40.706 | +4.60.604 | -9.60.126 | -5.20.453 | -11.80.084 |
| Single wall | -9.60.127 | +4.30.495 | -6.90.296 | -4.80.452 | +2.40.706 | 41.2%119 | +7.00.427 | -7.10.246 | -2.80.686 | -9.30.165 |
| Fence and open | -16.60.062 | -2.70.752 | -14.00.126 | -11.80.185 | -4.60.604 | -7.00.427 | 34.1%41 | -14.20.107 | -9.80.289 | -16.30.076 |
| Open | -2.40.682 | +11.40.060 | +0.20.977 | +2.30.702 | +9.60.126 | +7.10.246 | +14.20.107 | 48.3%147 | +4.30.514 | -2.20.734 |
| Rectangle | -6.80.316 | +7.10.297 | -4.20.560 | -2.00.770 | +5.20.453 | +2.80.686 | +9.80.289 | -4.30.514 | 44.0%91 | -6.50.363 |
| Octagon | -0.20.969 | +13.60.040 | +2.40.732 | +4.50.498 | +11.80.084 | +9.30.165 | +16.30.076 | +2.20.734 | +6.50.363 | 50.5%103 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted174
Win rate47.7%
Widest swing19.0 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jacky's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Octagon | 66.7% | +19.0 | 0.242 | 9 · | |
| Open | 62.5% | +14.8 | 0.214 | 16 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 61.5% | +13.8 | 0.299 | 13 · | |
| Full fence | 60.0% | +12.3 | 0.318 | 15 · | |
| Fence and open | 55.6% | +7.9 | 0.481 | 18 · | |
| Rectangle | 55.6% | +7.9 | 0.481 | 18 · | |
| Half fence | 42.1% | -5.6 | 0.605 | 19 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 35.7% | -12.0 | 0.349 | 14 · | |
| Low fence | 29.4% | -18.3 | 0.112 | 17 · | |
| Single wall | 29.2% | -18.5 | 0.050 | 24 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jacky's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 12.12 on 9 df, p 0.206
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 60.0%15 | +24.30.191 | +17.90.300 | -1.50.934 | +30.60.082 | +30.80.057 | +4.40.797 | -2.50.886 | +4.40.797 | -6.70.744 |
| Breakable full fence | -24.30.191 | 35.7%14 | -6.40.710 | -25.80.180 | +6.30.709 | +6.50.675 | -19.90.265 | -26.80.143 | -19.90.265 | -31.00.147 |
| Half fence | -17.90.300 | +6.40.710 | 42.1%19 | -19.40.280 | +12.70.429 | +12.90.377 | -13.40.413 | -20.40.229 | -13.40.413 | -24.60.225 |
| Breakable half fence | +1.50.934 | +25.80.180 | +19.40.280 | 61.5%13 | +32.10.078 | +32.40.056 | +6.00.739 | -1.00.958 | +6.00.739 | -5.10.806 |
| Low fence | -30.60.082 | -6.30.709 | -12.70.429 | -32.10.078 | 29.4%17 | +0.20.986 | -26.10.118 | -33.10.056 | -26.10.118 | -37.30.067 |
| Single wall | -30.80.057 | -6.50.675 | -12.90.377 | -32.40.056 | -0.20.986 | 29.2%24 | -26.40.085 | -33.30.037 | -26.40.085 | -37.50.050 |
| Fence and open | -4.40.797 | +19.90.265 | +13.40.413 | -6.00.739 | +26.10.118 | +26.40.085 | 55.6%18 | -6.90.681 | +0.01.000 | -11.10.580 |
| Open | +2.50.886 | +26.80.143 | +20.40.229 | +1.00.958 | +33.10.056 | +33.30.037 | +6.90.681 | 62.5%16 | +6.90.681 | -4.20.835 |
| Rectangle | -4.40.797 | +19.90.265 | +13.40.413 | -6.00.739 | +26.10.118 | +26.40.085 | -0.01.000 | -6.90.681 | 55.6%18 | -11.10.580 |
| Octagon | +6.70.744 | +31.00.147 | +24.60.225 | +5.10.806 | +37.30.067 | +37.50.050 | +11.10.580 | +4.20.835 | +11.10.580 | 66.7%9 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.