Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Jacky vs Shun
Matches counted3,977
Win rate50.9%
Widest swing4.3 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jacky's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakable full fence | 55.2% | +4.3 | 0.098 | 339 | |
| Full fence | 52.6% | +1.8 | 0.414 | 477 | |
| Half fence | 52.2% | +1.3 | 0.588 | 393 | |
| Rectangle | 51.9% | +1.0 | 0.679 | 370 | |
| Breakable half fence | 50.6% | -0.2 | 0.926 | 389 | |
| Octagon | 50.2% | -0.6 | 0.790 | 410 | |
| Open | 50.1% | -0.7 | 0.771 | 361 | |
| Single wall | 49.6% | -1.2 | 0.592 | 433 | |
| Low fence | 49.2% | -1.7 | 0.460 | 427 | |
| Fence and open | 49.0% | -1.9 | 0.588 | 196 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jacky's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 4.58 on 9 df, p 0.869
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 52.6%477 | -2.50.473 | +0.50.893 | +2.00.562 | +3.40.302 | +3.00.371 | +3.60.391 | +2.50.477 | +0.70.833 | +2.40.480 |
| Breakable full fence | +2.50.473 | 55.2%339 | +3.00.417 | +4.50.223 | +6.00.100 | +5.50.128 | +6.20.167 | +5.00.183 | +3.30.383 | +4.90.180 |
| Half fence | -0.50.893 | -3.00.417 | 52.2%393 | +1.50.671 | +3.00.393 | +2.50.471 | +3.20.466 | +2.00.579 | +0.30.940 | +1.90.587 |
| Breakable half fence | -2.00.562 | -4.50.223 | -1.50.671 | 50.6%389 | +1.50.676 | +1.00.777 | +1.70.704 | +0.50.890 | -1.20.731 | +0.40.910 |
| Low fence | -3.40.302 | -6.00.100 | -3.00.393 | -1.50.676 | 49.2%427 | -0.50.890 | +0.20.963 | -1.00.789 | -2.70.445 | -1.10.758 |
| Single wall | -3.00.371 | -5.50.128 | -2.50.471 | -1.00.777 | +0.50.890 | 49.6%433 | +0.70.876 | -0.50.892 | -2.20.527 | -0.60.864 |
| Fence and open | -3.60.391 | -6.20.167 | -3.20.466 | -1.70.704 | -0.20.963 | -0.70.876 | 49.0%196 | -1.20.794 | -2.90.510 | -1.30.771 |
| Open | -2.50.477 | -5.00.183 | -2.00.579 | -0.50.890 | +1.00.789 | +0.50.892 | +1.20.794 | 50.1%361 | -1.80.635 | -0.10.977 |
| Rectangle | -0.70.833 | -3.30.383 | -0.30.940 | +1.20.731 | +2.70.445 | +2.20.527 | +2.90.510 | +1.80.635 | 51.9%370 | +1.60.646 |
| Octagon | -2.40.480 | -4.90.180 | -1.90.587 | -0.40.910 | +1.10.758 | +0.60.864 | +1.30.771 | +0.10.977 | -1.60.646 | 50.2%410 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted3,370
Win rate50.0%
Widest swing-5.3 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jacky's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakable full fence | 54.6% | +4.5 | 0.102 | 295 | |
| Half fence | 53.0% | +3.0 | 0.268 | 319 | |
| Rectangle | 52.2% | +2.2 | 0.416 | 318 | |
| Full fence | 51.8% | +1.7 | 0.463 | 398 | |
| Breakable half fence | 50.8% | +0.7 | 0.782 | 333 | |
| Octagon | 50.7% | +0.7 | 0.790 | 361 | |
| Low fence | 48.7% | -1.3 | 0.605 | 355 | |
| Open | 47.7% | -2.3 | 0.398 | 310 | |
| Single wall | 47.2% | -2.8 | 0.275 | 345 | |
| Fence and open | 44.8% | -5.3 | 0.157 | 172 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jacky's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 8.47 on 9 df, p 0.488
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 51.8%398 | -2.80.462 | -1.20.745 | +1.00.786 | +3.00.407 | +4.50.220 | +7.00.125 | +4.00.289 | -0.40.906 | +1.10.769 |
| Breakable full fence | +2.80.462 | 54.6%295 | +1.60.691 | +3.80.338 | +5.80.138 | +7.30.064 | +9.80.041 | +6.80.093 | +2.40.556 | +3.90.322 |
| Half fence | +1.20.745 | -1.60.691 | 53.0%319 | +2.20.569 | +4.20.271 | +5.70.140 | +8.20.083 | +5.20.189 | +0.80.844 | +2.30.552 |
| Breakable half fence | -1.00.786 | -3.80.338 | -2.20.569 | 50.8%333 | +2.00.597 | +3.50.361 | +6.00.202 | +3.00.446 | -1.40.711 | +0.10.988 |
| Low fence | -3.00.407 | -5.80.138 | -4.20.271 | -2.00.597 | 48.7%355 | +1.50.694 | +4.00.393 | +1.00.799 | -3.50.369 | -2.00.600 |
| Single wall | -4.50.220 | -7.30.064 | -5.70.140 | -3.50.361 | -1.50.694 | 47.2%345 | +2.50.594 | -0.50.899 | -5.00.202 | -3.40.360 |
| Fence and open | -7.00.125 | -9.80.041 | -8.20.083 | -6.00.202 | -4.00.393 | -2.50.594 | 44.8%172 | -3.00.531 | -7.40.116 | -5.90.201 |
| Open | -4.00.289 | -6.80.093 | -5.20.189 | -3.00.446 | -1.00.799 | +0.50.899 | +3.00.531 | 47.7%310 | -4.50.264 | -3.00.446 |
| Rectangle | +0.40.906 | -2.40.556 | -0.80.844 | +1.40.711 | +3.50.369 | +5.00.202 | +7.40.116 | +4.50.264 | 52.2%318 | +1.50.695 |
| Octagon | -1.10.769 | -3.90.322 | -2.30.552 | -0.10.988 | +2.00.600 | +3.40.360 | +5.90.201 | +3.00.446 | -1.50.695 | 50.7%361 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted607
Win rate55.5%
Widest swing23.6 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jacky's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 79.2% | +23.6 | 0.017 | 24 · | |
| Open | 64.7% | +9.2 | 0.168 | 51 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 59.1% | +3.6 | 0.621 | 44 · | |
| Single wall | 59.1% | +3.6 | 0.466 | 88 | |
| Full fence | 57.0% | +1.4 | 0.782 | 79 · | |
| Low fence | 51.4% | -4.1 | 0.453 | 72 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 50.0% | -5.5 | 0.383 | 56 · | |
| Rectangle | 50.0% | -5.5 | 0.402 | 52 · | |
| Half fence | 48.6% | -6.9 | 0.204 | 74 · | |
| Octagon | 46.9% | -8.6 | 0.207 | 49 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jacky's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 12.58 on 9 df, p 0.182
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 57.0%79 | -2.10.819 | +8.30.303 | +7.00.424 | +5.60.492 | -2.10.781 | -22.20.050 | -7.80.379 | +7.00.434 | +10.00.269 |
| Breakable full fence | +2.10.819 | 59.1%44 | +10.40.272 | +9.10.365 | +7.70.419 | +0.01.000 | -20.10.094 | -5.60.574 | +9.10.373 | +12.20.241 |
| Half fence | -8.30.303 | -10.40.272 | 48.6%74 | -1.40.879 | -2.70.741 | -10.40.184 | -30.50.009 | -16.10.076 | -1.40.881 | +1.70.853 |
| Breakable half fence | -7.00.424 | -9.10.365 | +1.40.879 | 50.0%56 | -1.40.876 | -9.10.285 | -29.20.015 | -14.70.125 | +0.01.000 | +3.10.754 |
| Low fence | -5.60.492 | -7.70.419 | +2.70.741 | +1.40.876 | 51.4%72 | -7.70.329 | -27.80.017 | -13.30.142 | +1.40.879 | +4.50.631 |
| Single wall | +2.10.781 | -0.01.000 | +10.40.184 | +9.10.285 | +7.70.329 | 59.1%88 | -20.10.070 | -5.60.513 | +9.10.295 | +12.20.171 |
| Fence and open | +22.20.050 | +20.10.094 | +30.50.009 | +29.20.015 | +27.80.017 | +20.10.070 | 79.2%24 | +14.50.205 | +29.20.016 | +32.20.009 |
| Open | +7.80.379 | +5.60.574 | +16.10.076 | +14.70.125 | +13.30.142 | +5.60.513 | -14.50.205 | 64.7%51 | +14.70.131 | +17.80.074 |
| Rectangle | -7.00.434 | -9.10.373 | +1.40.881 | -0.01.000 | -1.40.879 | -9.10.295 | -29.20.016 | -14.70.131 | 50.0%52 | +3.10.758 |
| Octagon | -10.00.269 | -12.20.241 | -1.70.853 | -3.10.754 | -4.50.631 | -12.20.171 | -32.20.009 | -17.80.074 | -3.10.758 | 46.9%49 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.