Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Jacky vs Sarah
Matches counted3,963
Win rate49.0%
Widest swing-5.3 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jacky's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Half fence | 53.8% | +4.8 | 0.053 | 366 | |
| Open | 51.5% | +2.5 | 0.293 | 412 | |
| Full fence | 51.0% | +2.0 | 0.399 | 414 | |
| Rectangle | 50.1% | +1.1 | 0.640 | 389 | |
| Low fence | 48.6% | -0.4 | 0.853 | 422 | |
| Breakable half fence | 48.5% | -0.5 | 0.824 | 392 | |
| Single wall | 48.4% | -0.6 | 0.796 | 366 | |
| Fence and open | 48.2% | -0.8 | 0.813 | 191 | |
| Octagon | 46.2% | -2.8 | 0.249 | 381 | |
| Breakable full fence | 43.7% | -5.3 | 0.019 | 439 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jacky's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 11.50 on 9 df, p 0.243
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 51.0%414 | +7.20.035 | -2.90.425 | +2.50.479 | +2.40.490 | +2.60.468 | +2.80.522 | -0.50.888 | +0.80.812 | +4.80.179 |
| Breakable full fence | -7.20.035 | 43.7%439 | -10.10.004 | -4.70.172 | -4.80.154 | -4.60.190 | -4.40.304 | -7.70.024 | -6.40.066 | -2.50.480 |
| Half fence | +2.90.425 | +10.10.004 | 53.8%366 | +5.40.140 | +5.20.142 | +5.50.139 | +5.70.205 | +2.40.509 | +3.70.310 | +7.60.037 |
| Breakable half fence | -2.50.479 | +4.70.172 | -5.40.140 | 48.5%392 | -0.10.975 | +0.10.976 | +0.30.945 | -3.00.397 | -1.70.643 | +2.30.526 |
| Low fence | -2.40.490 | +4.80.154 | -5.20.142 | +0.10.975 | 48.6%422 | +0.20.951 | +0.40.925 | -2.90.406 | -1.60.659 | +2.40.499 |
| Single wall | -2.60.468 | +4.60.190 | -5.50.139 | -0.10.976 | -0.20.951 | 48.4%366 | +0.20.965 | -3.10.389 | -1.80.627 | +2.20.553 |
| Fence and open | -2.80.522 | +4.40.304 | -5.70.205 | -0.30.945 | -0.40.925 | -0.20.965 | 48.2%191 | -3.30.452 | -2.00.657 | +2.00.656 |
| Open | +0.50.888 | +7.70.024 | -2.40.509 | +3.00.397 | +2.90.406 | +3.10.389 | +3.30.452 | 51.5%412 | +1.30.707 | +5.30.139 |
| Rectangle | -0.80.812 | +6.40.066 | -3.70.310 | +1.70.643 | +1.60.659 | +1.80.627 | +2.00.657 | -1.30.707 | 50.1%389 | +3.90.275 |
| Octagon | -4.80.179 | +2.50.480 | -7.60.037 | -2.30.526 | -2.40.499 | -2.20.553 | -2.00.656 | -5.30.139 | -3.90.275 | 46.2%381 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted3,496
Win rate49.2%
Widest swing5.4 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jacky's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Half fence | 54.6% | +5.4 | 0.038 | 337 | |
| Open | 51.7% | +2.5 | 0.328 | 358 | |
| Full fence | 50.9% | +1.6 | 0.520 | 354 | |
| Rectangle | 50.7% | +1.5 | 0.558 | 343 | |
| Breakable half fence | 49.3% | +0.1 | 0.984 | 347 | |
| Fence and open | 47.9% | -1.4 | 0.723 | 165 | |
| Low fence | 47.5% | -1.8 | 0.468 | 373 | |
| Octagon | 47.3% | -1.9 | 0.462 | 336 | |
| Single wall | 46.4% | -2.8 | 0.291 | 321 | |
| Breakable full fence | 44.6% | -4.6 | 0.057 | 383 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jacky's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 10.72 on 9 df, p 0.295
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 50.9%354 | +6.20.092 | -3.80.323 | +1.60.678 | +3.40.360 | +4.40.250 | +3.00.529 | -0.80.825 | +0.10.975 | +3.50.354 |
| Breakable full fence | -6.20.092 | 44.6%383 | -9.90.008 | -4.60.210 | -2.80.439 | -1.80.639 | -3.20.486 | -7.00.056 | -6.10.101 | -2.70.473 |
| Half fence | +3.80.323 | +9.90.008 | 54.6%337 | +5.30.164 | +7.20.057 | +8.20.036 | +6.70.157 | +2.90.440 | +3.90.312 | +7.30.059 |
| Breakable half fence | -1.60.678 | +4.60.210 | -5.30.164 | 49.3%347 | +1.80.624 | +2.90.459 | +1.40.767 | -2.40.525 | -1.40.703 | +2.00.609 |
| Low fence | -3.40.360 | +2.80.439 | -7.20.057 | -1.80.624 | 47.5%373 | +1.00.785 | -0.40.927 | -4.20.254 | -3.30.381 | +0.10.972 |
| Single wall | -4.40.250 | +1.80.639 | -8.20.036 | -2.90.459 | -1.00.785 | 46.4%321 | -1.50.760 | -5.30.171 | -4.30.267 | -0.90.816 |
| Fence and open | -3.00.529 | +3.20.486 | -6.70.157 | -1.40.767 | +0.40.927 | +1.50.760 | 47.9%165 | -3.80.420 | -2.90.547 | +0.60.907 |
| Open | +0.80.825 | +7.00.056 | -2.90.440 | +2.40.525 | +4.20.254 | +5.30.171 | +3.80.420 | 51.7%358 | +0.90.802 | +4.40.252 |
| Rectangle | -0.10.975 | +6.10.101 | -3.90.312 | +1.40.703 | +3.30.381 | +4.30.267 | +2.90.547 | -0.90.802 | 50.7%343 | +3.40.375 |
| Octagon | -3.50.354 | +2.70.473 | -7.30.059 | -2.00.609 | -0.10.972 | +0.90.816 | -0.60.907 | -4.40.252 | -3.40.375 | 47.3%336 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted467
Win rate47.3%
Widest swing14.9 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jacky's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single wall | 62.2% | +14.9 | 0.035 | 45 · | |
| Low fence | 57.1% | +9.8 | 0.146 | 49 · | |
| Full fence | 51.7% | +4.3 | 0.470 | 60 · | |
| Fence and open | 50.0% | +2.7 | 0.778 | 26 · | |
| Open | 50.0% | +2.7 | 0.675 | 54 · | |
| Rectangle | 45.6% | -1.7 | 0.811 | 46 · | |
| Half fence | 44.8% | -2.5 | 0.781 | 29 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 42.2% | -5.1 | 0.471 | 45 · | |
| Octagon | 37.8% | -9.5 | 0.177 | 45 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 37.5% | -9.8 | 0.117 | 56 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jacky's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 10.92 on 9 df, p 0.281
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 51.7%60 | +14.20.125 | +6.80.545 | +9.40.338 | -5.50.568 | -10.60.281 | +1.70.887 | +1.70.859 | +6.00.539 | +13.90.157 |
| Breakable full fence | -14.20.125 | 37.5%56 | -7.30.513 | -4.70.630 | -19.60.044 | -24.70.013 | -12.50.285 | -12.50.186 | -8.20.405 | -0.30.977 |
| Half fence | -6.80.545 | +7.30.513 | 44.8%29 | +2.60.825 | -12.30.292 | -17.40.142 | -5.20.701 | -5.20.653 | -0.80.944 | +7.00.547 |
| Breakable half fence | -9.40.338 | +4.70.630 | -2.60.825 | 42.2%45 | -14.90.148 | -20.00.058 | -7.80.526 | -7.80.440 | -3.40.742 | +4.40.667 |
| Low fence | +5.50.568 | +19.60.044 | +12.30.292 | +14.90.148 | 57.1%49 | -5.10.616 | +7.10.554 | +7.10.468 | +11.50.263 | +19.40.060 |
| Single wall | +10.60.281 | +24.70.013 | +17.40.142 | +20.00.058 | +5.10.616 | 62.2%45 | +12.20.315 | +12.20.223 | +16.60.113 | +24.40.020 |
| Fence and open | -1.70.887 | +12.50.285 | +5.20.701 | +7.80.526 | -7.10.554 | -12.20.315 | 50.0%26 | +0.01.000 | +4.30.723 | +12.20.315 |
| Open | -1.70.859 | +12.50.186 | +5.20.653 | +7.80.440 | -7.10.468 | -12.20.223 | -0.01.000 | 50.0%54 | +4.30.664 | +12.20.223 |
| Rectangle | -6.00.539 | +8.20.405 | +0.80.944 | +3.40.742 | -11.50.263 | -16.60.113 | -4.30.723 | -4.30.664 | 45.6%46 | +7.90.446 |
| Octagon | -13.90.157 | +0.30.977 | -7.00.547 | -4.40.667 | -19.40.060 | -24.40.020 | -12.20.315 | -12.20.223 | -7.90.446 | 37.8%45 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.