Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Jacky vs Pai
Matches counted3,602
Win rate51.2%
Widest swing-2.8 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jacky's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 53.5% | +2.3 | 0.537 | 172 | |
| Octagon | 52.9% | +1.7 | 0.495 | 363 | |
| Full fence | 52.8% | +1.6 | 0.496 | 390 | |
| Breakable half fence | 52.6% | +1.4 | 0.578 | 371 | |
| Low fence | 52.1% | +0.9 | 0.712 | 384 | |
| Half fence | 50.8% | -0.4 | 0.863 | 335 | |
| Breakable full fence | 49.9% | -1.3 | 0.579 | 393 | |
| Single wall | 48.9% | -2.2 | 0.390 | 329 | |
| Open | 48.9% | -2.3 | 0.356 | 362 | |
| Rectangle | 48.4% | -2.8 | 0.276 | 335 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jacky's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 4.35 on 9 df, p 0.887
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 52.8%390 | +3.00.409 | +2.10.577 | +0.30.943 | +0.70.837 | +3.90.299 | -0.70.884 | +3.90.282 | +4.50.231 | -0.10.984 |
| Breakable full fence | -3.00.409 | 49.9%393 | -0.90.814 | -2.70.458 | -2.20.538 | +0.90.802 | -3.60.429 | +1.00.788 | +1.50.684 | -3.00.407 |
| Half fence | -2.10.577 | +0.90.814 | 50.8%335 | -1.80.630 | -1.30.720 | +1.80.641 | -2.70.559 | +1.90.625 | +2.40.536 | -2.10.571 |
| Breakable half fence | -0.30.943 | +2.70.458 | +1.80.630 | 52.6%371 | +0.50.896 | +3.60.338 | -0.90.840 | +3.70.321 | +4.20.265 | -0.30.928 |
| Low fence | -0.70.837 | +2.20.538 | +1.30.720 | -0.50.896 | 52.1%384 | +3.10.402 | -1.40.759 | +3.20.384 | +3.70.319 | -0.80.825 |
| Single wall | -3.90.299 | -0.90.802 | -1.80.641 | -3.60.338 | -3.10.402 | 48.9%329 | -4.50.333 | +0.00.991 | +0.60.882 | -4.00.298 |
| Fence and open | +0.70.884 | +3.60.429 | +2.70.559 | +0.90.840 | +1.40.759 | +4.50.333 | 53.5%172 | +4.60.321 | +5.10.274 | +0.60.897 |
| Open | -3.90.282 | -1.00.788 | -1.90.625 | -3.70.321 | -3.20.384 | -0.00.991 | -4.60.321 | 48.9%362 | +0.50.887 | -4.00.282 |
| Rectangle | -4.50.231 | -1.50.684 | -2.40.536 | -4.20.265 | -3.70.319 | -0.60.882 | -5.10.274 | -0.50.887 | 48.4%335 | -4.50.231 |
| Octagon | +0.10.984 | +3.00.407 | +2.10.571 | +0.30.928 | +0.80.825 | +4.00.298 | -0.60.897 | +4.00.282 | +4.50.231 | 52.9%363 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted3,252
Win rate51.0%
Widest swing2.1 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jacky's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 53.2% | +2.1 | 0.585 | 158 | |
| Full fence | 52.9% | +1.8 | 0.468 | 346 | |
| Octagon | 52.8% | +1.7 | 0.514 | 326 | |
| Low fence | 51.6% | +0.6 | 0.827 | 343 | |
| Breakable half fence | 51.6% | +0.5 | 0.832 | 347 | |
| Half fence | 49.8% | -1.2 | 0.662 | 293 | |
| Breakable full fence | 49.7% | -1.3 | 0.599 | 348 | |
| Single wall | 49.5% | -1.5 | 0.573 | 305 | |
| Rectangle | 49.0% | -2.1 | 0.457 | 298 | |
| Open | 48.9% | -2.1 | 0.419 | 331 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jacky's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 2.96 on 9 df, p 0.966
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 52.9%346 | +3.20.402 | +3.10.440 | +1.30.731 | +1.30.735 | +3.40.389 | -0.30.954 | +4.00.304 | +3.90.324 | +0.10.973 |
| Breakable full fence | -3.20.402 | 49.7%348 | -0.10.977 | -1.90.622 | -1.90.619 | +0.20.958 | -3.50.472 | +0.80.841 | +0.70.855 | -3.00.429 |
| Half fence | -3.10.440 | +0.10.977 | 49.8%293 | -1.80.658 | -1.80.656 | +0.30.937 | -3.30.499 | +0.90.825 | +0.80.839 | -2.90.466 |
| Breakable half fence | -1.30.731 | +1.90.622 | +1.80.658 | 51.6%347 | -0.00.996 | +2.10.597 | -1.60.742 | +2.60.492 | +2.60.512 | -1.20.760 |
| Low fence | -1.30.735 | +1.90.619 | +1.80.656 | +0.00.996 | 51.6%343 | +2.10.594 | -1.60.745 | +2.70.490 | +2.60.510 | -1.20.765 |
| Single wall | -3.40.389 | -0.20.958 | -0.30.937 | -2.10.597 | -2.10.594 | 49.5%305 | -3.60.456 | +0.60.887 | +0.50.899 | -3.20.414 |
| Fence and open | +0.30.954 | +3.50.472 | +3.30.499 | +1.60.742 | +1.60.745 | +3.60.456 | 53.2%158 | +4.20.383 | +4.20.397 | +0.40.933 |
| Open | -4.00.304 | -0.80.841 | -0.90.825 | -2.60.492 | -2.70.490 | -0.60.887 | -4.20.383 | 48.9%331 | -0.10.990 | -3.80.328 |
| Rectangle | -3.90.324 | -0.70.855 | -0.80.839 | -2.60.512 | -2.60.510 | -0.50.899 | -4.20.397 | +0.10.990 | 49.0%298 | -3.80.347 |
| Octagon | -0.10.973 | +3.00.429 | +2.90.466 | +1.20.760 | +1.20.765 | +3.20.414 | -0.40.933 | +3.80.328 | +3.80.347 | 52.8%326 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted350
Win rate52.6%
Widest swing14.1 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jacky's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakable half fence | 66.7% | +14.1 | 0.152 | 24 · | |
| Fence and open | 57.1% | +4.6 | 0.727 | 14 · | |
| Half fence | 57.1% | +4.6 | 0.527 | 42 · | |
| Low fence | 56.1% | +3.5 | 0.630 | 41 · | |
| Octagon | 54.0% | +1.5 | 0.849 | 37 · | |
| Full fence | 52.3% | -0.3 | 0.966 | 44 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 51.1% | -1.5 | 0.834 | 45 · | |
| Open | 48.4% | -4.2 | 0.625 | 31 · | |
| Rectangle | 43.2% | -9.3 | 0.230 | 37 · | |
| Single wall | 41.7% | -10.9 | 0.268 | 24 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jacky's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 5.31 on 9 df, p 0.806
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 52.3%44 | +1.20.913 | -4.90.650 | -14.40.251 | -3.80.724 | +10.60.403 | -4.90.750 | +3.90.740 | +9.00.418 | -1.80.873 |
| Breakable full fence | -1.20.913 | 51.1%45 | -6.00.573 | -15.60.214 | -5.00.643 | +9.40.454 | -6.00.693 | +2.70.815 | +7.90.478 | -2.90.791 |
| Half fence | +4.90.650 | +6.00.573 | 57.1%42 | -9.50.446 | +1.00.923 | +15.50.226 | +0.01.000 | +8.80.459 | +13.90.218 | +3.10.783 |
| Breakable half fence | +14.40.251 | +15.60.214 | +9.50.446 | 66.7%24 | +10.60.401 | +25.00.082 | +9.50.557 | +18.30.175 | +23.40.074 | +12.60.328 |
| Low fence | +3.80.724 | +5.00.643 | -1.00.923 | -10.60.401 | 56.1%41 | +14.40.261 | -1.00.946 | +7.70.516 | +12.90.257 | +2.00.856 |
| Single wall | -10.60.403 | -9.40.454 | -15.50.226 | -25.00.082 | -14.40.261 | 41.7%24 | -15.50.357 | -6.70.620 | -1.60.903 | -12.40.344 |
| Fence and open | +4.90.750 | +6.00.693 | -0.01.000 | -9.50.557 | +1.00.946 | +15.50.357 | 57.1%14 | +8.80.586 | +13.90.375 | +3.10.843 |
| Open | -3.90.740 | -2.70.815 | -8.80.459 | -18.30.175 | -7.70.516 | +6.70.620 | -8.80.586 | 48.4%31 | +5.20.671 | -5.70.641 |
| Rectangle | -9.00.418 | -7.90.478 | -13.90.218 | -23.40.074 | -12.90.257 | +1.60.903 | -13.90.375 | -5.20.671 | 43.2%37 | -10.80.352 |
| Octagon | +1.80.873 | +2.90.791 | -3.10.783 | -12.60.328 | -2.00.856 | +12.40.344 | -3.10.843 | +5.70.641 | +10.80.352 | 54.0%37 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.