Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Jacky vs Lion
Matches counted3,971
Win rate50.9%
Widest swing6.9 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jacky's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low fence | 57.8% | +6.9 | 0.006 | 351 | |
| Fence and open | 56.0% | +5.2 | 0.155 | 182 | |
| Octagon | 53.1% | +2.2 | 0.366 | 392 | |
| Full fence | 52.6% | +1.7 | 0.447 | 443 | |
| Breakable full fence | 51.7% | +0.8 | 0.717 | 439 | |
| Half fence | 51.0% | +0.1 | 0.979 | 365 | |
| Rectangle | 50.2% | -0.7 | 0.757 | 462 | |
| Breakable half fence | 49.5% | -1.4 | 0.555 | 408 | |
| Single wall | 48.0% | -2.9 | 0.257 | 352 | |
| Open | 45.8% | -5.1 | 0.037 | 384 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jacky's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 15.33 on 9 df, p 0.082
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 52.6%443 | +0.90.792 | +1.60.643 | +3.10.368 | -5.20.141 | +4.60.199 | -3.40.432 | +6.80.052 | +2.40.474 | -0.50.893 |
| Breakable full fence | -0.90.792 | 51.7%439 | +0.80.832 | +2.20.522 | -6.10.086 | +3.70.301 | -4.30.324 | +5.90.093 | +1.50.654 | -1.40.697 |
| Half fence | -1.60.643 | -0.80.832 | 51.0%365 | +1.40.687 | -6.90.065 | +3.00.430 | -5.10.262 | +5.10.161 | +0.70.832 | -2.10.563 |
| Breakable half fence | -3.10.368 | -2.20.522 | -1.40.687 | 49.5%408 | -8.30.022 | +1.50.680 | -6.50.142 | +3.70.301 | -0.70.835 | -3.50.315 |
| Low fence | +5.20.141 | +6.10.086 | +6.90.065 | +8.30.022 | 57.8%351 | +9.80.009 | +1.80.692 | +12.00.001 | +7.60.031 | +4.80.191 |
| Single wall | -4.60.199 | -3.70.301 | -3.00.430 | -1.50.680 | -9.80.009 | 48.0%352 | -8.00.078 | +2.20.554 | -2.20.533 | -5.00.169 |
| Fence and open | +3.40.432 | +4.30.324 | +5.10.262 | +6.50.142 | -1.80.692 | +8.00.078 | 56.0%182 | +10.20.023 | +5.80.183 | +3.00.505 |
| Open | -6.80.052 | -5.90.093 | -5.10.161 | -3.70.301 | -12.00.001 | -2.20.554 | -10.20.023 | 45.8%384 | -4.40.204 | -7.20.044 |
| Rectangle | -2.40.474 | -1.50.654 | -0.70.832 | +0.70.835 | -7.60.031 | +2.20.533 | -5.80.183 | +4.40.204 | 50.2%462 | -2.80.407 |
| Octagon | +0.50.893 | +1.40.697 | +2.10.563 | +3.50.315 | -4.80.191 | +5.00.169 | -3.00.505 | +7.20.044 | +2.80.407 | 53.1%392 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted3,217
Win rate49.2%
Widest swing6.0 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jacky's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low fence | 55.2% | +6.0 | 0.029 | 295 | |
| Octagon | 52.8% | +3.6 | 0.174 | 320 | |
| Fence and open | 51.8% | +2.5 | 0.534 | 143 | |
| Full fence | 51.1% | +1.9 | 0.443 | 352 | |
| Half fence | 50.0% | +0.8 | 0.772 | 302 | |
| Rectangle | 49.6% | +0.4 | 0.868 | 381 | |
| Breakable full fence | 49.0% | -0.2 | 0.940 | 357 | |
| Breakable half fence | 48.8% | -0.4 | 0.867 | 324 | |
| Single wall | 44.2% | -5.0 | 0.083 | 278 | |
| Open | 44.1% | -5.1 | 0.061 | 306 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jacky's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 12.72 on 9 df, p 0.176
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 51.1%352 | +2.10.573 | +1.10.772 | +2.40.538 | -4.10.296 | +6.90.086 | -0.60.902 | +7.00.072 | +1.50.679 | -1.70.664 |
| Breakable full fence | -2.10.573 | 49.0%357 | -1.00.802 | +0.20.947 | -6.20.113 | +4.80.232 | -2.70.581 | +4.90.207 | -0.60.873 | -3.80.324 |
| Half fence | -1.10.772 | +1.00.802 | 50.0%302 | +1.20.758 | -5.20.199 | +5.80.165 | -1.80.730 | +5.90.146 | +0.40.919 | -2.80.483 |
| Breakable half fence | -2.40.538 | -0.20.947 | -1.20.758 | 48.8%324 | -6.50.107 | +4.50.268 | -3.00.552 | +4.70.242 | -0.80.824 | -4.00.304 |
| Low fence | +4.10.296 | +6.20.113 | +5.20.199 | +6.50.107 | 55.2%295 | +11.00.008 | +3.50.490 | +11.10.006 | +5.60.145 | +2.40.544 |
| Single wall | -6.90.086 | -4.80.232 | -5.80.165 | -4.50.268 | -11.00.008 | 44.2%278 | -7.50.144 | +0.10.975 | -5.40.173 | -8.60.037 |
| Fence and open | +0.60.902 | +2.70.581 | +1.80.730 | +3.00.552 | -3.50.490 | +7.50.144 | 51.8%143 | +7.60.131 | +2.10.662 | -1.10.832 |
| Open | -7.00.072 | -4.90.207 | -5.90.146 | -4.70.242 | -11.10.006 | -0.10.975 | -7.60.131 | 44.1%306 | -5.50.152 | -8.70.030 |
| Rectangle | -1.50.679 | +0.60.873 | -0.40.919 | +0.80.824 | -5.60.145 | +5.40.173 | -2.10.662 | +5.50.152 | 49.6%381 | -3.20.398 |
| Octagon | +1.70.664 | +3.80.324 | +2.80.483 | +4.00.304 | -2.40.544 | +8.60.037 | +1.10.832 | +8.70.030 | +3.20.398 | 52.8%320 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted754
Win rate58.1%
Widest swing13.7 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jacky's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 71.8% | +13.7 | 0.075 | 39 · | |
| Low fence | 71.4% | +13.3 | 0.036 | 56 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 63.4% | +5.3 | 0.301 | 82 | |
| Single wall | 62.2% | +4.1 | 0.455 | 74 · | |
| Full fence | 58.2% | +0.1 | 0.975 | 91 | |
| Half fence | 55.6% | -2.5 | 0.670 | 63 · | |
| Octagon | 54.2% | -3.9 | 0.478 | 72 · | |
| Rectangle | 53.1% | -5.0 | 0.334 | 81 | |
| Open | 52.6% | -5.5 | 0.296 | 78 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 52.4% | -5.7 | 0.261 | 84 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jacky's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 12.11 on 9 df, p 0.207
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 58.2%91 | -5.20.487 | +2.70.741 | +5.90.436 | -13.20.107 | -3.90.609 | -13.60.144 | +5.70.459 | +5.20.497 | +4.10.602 |
| Breakable full fence | +5.20.487 | 63.4%82 | +7.80.338 | +11.00.150 | -8.00.327 | +1.20.872 | -8.40.363 | +10.80.164 | +10.30.181 | +9.20.244 |
| Half fence | -2.70.741 | -7.80.338 | 55.6%63 | +3.20.702 | -15.90.073 | -6.60.433 | -16.20.101 | +3.00.723 | +2.50.768 | +1.40.871 |
| Breakable half fence | -5.90.436 | -11.00.150 | -3.20.702 | 52.4%84 | -19.10.024 | -9.80.215 | -19.40.042 | -0.20.981 | -0.70.928 | -1.80.824 |
| Low fence | +13.20.107 | +8.00.327 | +15.90.073 | +19.10.024 | 71.4%56 | +9.30.269 | -0.40.969 | +18.90.028 | +18.30.031 | +17.30.046 |
| Single wall | +3.90.609 | -1.20.872 | +6.60.433 | +9.80.215 | -9.30.269 | 62.2%74 | -9.60.306 | +9.60.232 | +9.10.254 | +8.00.327 |
| Fence and open | +13.60.144 | +8.40.363 | +16.20.101 | +19.40.042 | +0.40.969 | +9.60.306 | 71.8%39 | +19.20.046 | +18.70.051 | +17.60.070 |
| Open | -5.70.459 | -10.80.164 | -3.00.723 | +0.20.981 | -18.90.028 | -9.60.232 | -19.20.046 | 52.6%78 | -0.50.947 | -1.60.844 |
| Rectangle | -5.20.497 | -10.30.181 | -2.50.768 | +0.70.928 | -18.30.031 | -9.10.254 | -18.70.051 | +0.50.947 | 53.1%81 | -1.10.894 |
| Octagon | -4.10.602 | -9.20.244 | -1.40.871 | +1.80.824 | -17.30.046 | -8.00.327 | -17.60.070 | +1.60.844 | +1.10.894 | 54.2%72 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.